Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I turned this over a few times & I’m not convinced they do have a better chance to get there.

30-man roster has a lot of scrubs. ~$8 players. 

You’d need to get above average performances out of 3 scrubs at WR every week, for example. 

And you’re going against 18 m-man teams with 3-4-5 studs at the position, so to be in the top weekly % & advance, you’d also need to have below average performances from those teams.

It’s a lot to ask, statistically speaking. The odds would seem to be stacked against a favorable outcome for a 30-man roster. 

There are outliers of course - and very likely the team with a low-rent player or 3 is going to have that as the difference maker when it comes down to the end. 

But a team of all low-rent players? Seems like a tall task to make it to the finish line. I know that’s the whole point of best ball; but blood from a turnip & all that. 

In a general sense, this argument applies every year, and every single year large rosters survive at a much higher rate than small rosters.  I guess the question is whether the pricing was so tough this year that the average $8 players are so bad that it's swung back in favor of small rosters.  I've always kinda thought the sweet spot was in the 26-player range, and maybe the pricing this year made it so that the sweet spot is more like 23-ish.  In this format I'd still rather have more players than fewer though. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In a general sense, this argument applies every year, and every single year large rosters survive at a much higher rate than small rosters.  I guess the question is whether the pricing was so tough this year that the average $8 players are so bad that it's swung back in favor of small rosters. 

It’s my first time playing so I won’t claim to be an expert, but looking at the $8 players at skill positions you’re gambling on a player like Josh Rosen 1. Elevated to starter & 2. Being productive

likewise with WR3-4 types & low-end RBBC  types.

with the right breaks, sure - those players could blow up.

so a mix would likely be the best approach. You probably need an $8 lottery ticket player to blow up to win it all, but you can’t have an entire team full of them & expect to be productive enough, IMO. 

In the example above, I believe Carr was $9, so why take Rosen over Carr with just $1 difference? 

I've always kinda thought the sweet spot was in the 26-player range, and maybe the pricing this year made it so that the sweet spot is more like 23-ish.  In this format I'd still rather have more players than fewer though. 

And that’s always going to be the case with best ball. More players = more chances for a big game from more than 1 player.

Any scrub could theoretically have a huge game. But the trade-offs are likely frequency & floor. The high ceiling/low floor  (more expensive) players should have more frequent good games than the low floor/low ceiling (cheaper) players. 

I kept trying to make rosters with 22-23 players but weighed the following question:

what are the odds that I get break out games/seasons from scrubs, vs the odds that I draft a smaller roster that performs consistently & stays healthy? 

At the end I put the odds about the same. So I went with an “all-studs” 18-man roster strategy, with some mid-range players obviously. 

We’ll see how it works out. 

 

[Stray Doug]

LOL... on ESPN front page "Top Headlines" right now: "D. Johnson has surgery to fix cartilage damage"

I was like "Oh snap... Duke? David? Which one!?!?!"  Clicked through and it was Dustin... the golfer. 

 

[TheWinz]

In the example above, I believe Carr was $9, so why take Rosen over Carr with just $1 difference? 

Rosen was only $4, but I see your point

 

[Steeler]

In other news: CALCOMATIC.COM is ready to go!  The main page has instructions on how to find your FBGID and setup your team in Calcomatic.

Once you find your FBGID for your team go  HERE to enter it and click the "This is My Entry" button.

Go HERE to see the standings page for the week when the games start - shows your rank compared to other entries and more importantly where you stand in relation to the cut line.

Go HERE to see the players overall ownership percentage in the contest.

Go HERE to see the ownership percentage for the players in the Sunday and Monday night contests for the given week (as long as that contest has not yet started).

Go HERE if you would like to help with the cost of hosting this site and/or to say thanks for spending the time doing this during the NFL season.

----

As always, let me know if you see any issues with your team, players, etc.  One issue I do know about is that these players are not yet setup to receive points in Calcomatic.  Once they start to receive stats this year I can setup them up,  I'll keep an eye out but you can also let me know if you see them with an unexpected zero:

M Valdes-Scantling    WR    GB
J Grant    WR    MIA
D Metcalf    WR    SEA
W Dissly    TE    SEA
T McLaurin    WR    WAS

----

And finally, a note about the ads on the site.  When I setup the site I included some small ads to help with the cost of hosting but this year the ads are bigger - but I didn't do it!     Ad sense recently made a change to the way ads are displayed which I believe has caused the ads to be larger than I originally intended.  I will take a look to see if the size of these ads can be adjusted somehow.

 

[Interseptopus]

But... You didn't pick Lockett?

I had a last minute switch from Jones and Lockett to Diggs and forgot to take the Lockett info out! 

 

[Interseptopus]

for those who might knock taking Hill over Duke... 

OC says today they will see who has the hot hand. giddyup

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Rosen was only $4, but I see your point

Ah, yeah - my bad. Point holds though. So for a $5 difference you get a guaranteed starter on a team with upside weapons & a decent OL vs a lottery ticket who’s upside seems extremely capped by a dearth of talent around him. 

Not saying it’s impossible to win with Rosen, just improbable.

 

[Stray Doug]

...

You probably need an $8 lottery ticket player to blow up to win it all, but you can’t have an entire team full of them & expect to be productive enough, IMO. 

...

And that’s always going to be the case with best ball. More players = more chances for a big game from more than 1 player.

Any scrub could theoretically have a huge game. But the trade-offs are likely frequency & floor. The high ceiling/low floor  (more expensive) players should have more frequent good games than the low floor/low ceiling (cheaper) players. 

Yeah, my instinct is there's not consistently any one "right" strategy that will win from year to year... though there's certainly some obviously bad ones.

My approach is I start with identifying any studs who I just have my heart set on or who I think provide too much upside/value to pass on (as long as no 2 studs on same bye week).  I felt that way about Kelce and Julio this year.  From there I look for the "value plays"... guys in the middle/low tier who will far outplay their cost, usually due to trades/developments that occur after prices are set.  I put this as "must haves" like Josh Gordon and Duke Johnson and "options" which is a much larger list of guys who I think are good values but not no-brainers... Breida, Hill, Westbrook, Beasley, Andrews for example.

At that point it's a matter or looking at where I'm at position-by-position and bye-week... and if there's a particular spot I need a stud at.  Liked my value RB options this year, but felt I needed to add one stud and went with McCaffery because I wanted the earlier bye.  That's when I start picking and choosing combinations from that list of "options" value players (I took Breida, Westbrook, and Beasley) and/or adding another stud (I took Kittle) if available.  Final step is to toss in some cheap kickers and defenses... though I do wonder if I could improve a bit on that last step, and want to look at past years for these positions in particular to see if I can improve my strategy.  Didn't have time for it this preseason, but hoping to take a look now if I can get the data.

So depending on how that shakes out and the number of "must have" cheapies and so forth, I could wind up with a smaller roster one year and a bigger roster next year.  My focus isn't on trying to predetermine "what's the best roster size" and conform to that, it's "where's the value this year?" and build around that, regardless of roster size outcome.  Case in point, last year I had 28 (and made it to week 11).. whereas I've got 20 this year... but I took the same approach both years.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

for those who might knock taking Hill over Duke... 

OC says today they will see who has the hot hand. giddyup

Reading the quote it sounds like he’s talking more about Hill vs Edwards as the “hot hand”, not vs Ingram. 

Ravens might run more than any team in the NFL. 

There will be plenty of carries for the 3 to split, but Ingram is poised for feature back workload. OC explicitly called out that “Mark is the starter”. 

I think you’re reading into that quote with hill-colored glasses a bit. 

I’d still take Duke over Hill. 

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Championship Roster:

QB - Kirk Cousins - 12
QB - Derek Carr - 9

I had some running QBs initially then noticed that passing TDs get 6 points, so no real advantage to owning a QB who may run in a few but only throw for like 20 TDs.  So went with high upside/under valued passers. I think both these guys can throw 30+ TDs.

RB - Saquon Barkley - 36
RB - Christian McCaffrey - 35
RB - Alvin Kamara - 33
RB - LeSean McCoy - 16
RB - Duke Johnson - 9
RB - Justin Jackson - 9

Stacked my team with 3 STUD RBs and supported them with 3 cheap RBs who could turn in top 10 seasons.

WR - Mike Williams - 16
WR - Sterling Shepard - 14
WR - Michael Gallup - 10
WR - Donte Moncrief - 10
WR - Josh Gordon - 6

Obvious weak spot on my team but ideally my team will have 4 RBs starting any given week.  So really just need 2 of these guys to pop from week to week.  

TE - T.J. Hockenson - 10
TE - Jimmy Graham - 10

Love the upside of Hock and if Graham can improve on his TD totals, I think this pair will be just fine.

PK - Randy Bullock - 3
PK - Matt Gay - 3

They're kickers. No analysis needed.

TD - Seattle Seahawks - 5
TD - Carolina Panthers - 4

I think SEA is a great value for D this year.  

Total value: 250

 

[hagmania]

In other news: CALCOMATIC.COM is ready to go!  The main page has instructions on how to find your FBGID and setup your team in Calcomatic.

Once you find your FBGID for your team go  HERE to enter it and click the "This is My Entry" button.

Go HERE to see the standings page for the week when the games start - shows your rank compared to other entries and more importantly where you stand in relation to the cut line.

Go HERE to see the players overall ownership percentage in the contest.

Go HERE to see the ownership percentage for the players in the Sunday and Monday night contests for the given week (as long as that contest has not yet started).

Go HERE if you would like to help with the cost of hosting this site and/or to say thanks for spending the time doing this during the NFL season.

----

As always, let me know if you see any issues with your team, players, etc.  One issue I do know about is that these players are not yet setup to receive points in Calcomatic.  Once they start to receive stats this year I can setup them up,  I'll keep an eye out but you can also let me know if you see them with an unexpected zero:

M Valdes-Scantling    WR    GB
J Grant    WR    MIA
D Metcalf    WR    SEA
W Dissly    TE    SEA
T McLaurin    WR    WAS

----

And finally, a note about the ads on the site.  When I setup the site I included some small ads to help with the cost of hosting but this year the ads are bigger - but I didn't do it!     Ad sense recently made a change to the way ads are displayed which I believe has caused the ads to be larger than I originally intended.  I will take a look to see if the size of these ads can be adjusted somehow.

You edited "My Enry"

Thanks as always!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Only entry with Curtis Samuel, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Boyd

My team usually isn't that unique.

-QG

 

[scoobus]

Jared Goff
Jameis Winston

Ezekiel Elliott 
Chris Carson
Duke Johnson
Justice Hill
Matt Breida
Devin Singletary 

Julian Edelman
Tyler Boyd
Dede Westbrook
Michael Gallup
Cole Beasley
Josh Gordon

Travis Kelce
Evan Engram 

Stephen Hauschka
Austin Seibert

San Fran
Cincy

 

[Interseptopus]

Reading the quote it sounds like he’s talking more about Hill vs Edwards as the “hot hand”, not vs Ingram. 

Ravens might run more than any team in the NFL. 

There will be plenty of carries for the 3 to split, but Ingram is poised for feature back workload. OC explicitly called out that “Mark is the starter”. 

I think you’re reading into that quote with hill-colored glasses a bit. 

I’d still take Duke over Hill. 

possibly

 I'm still believing in hill having some Aaron Jones moments where he scores rb1 numbers. 

 

[QuizGuy66]

Real quick

QB - Lamar Jackson $12, Brady $11, Carr $9

RB - Conner $29, Josh Jacobs $20, Carson $18, Duke $9, Singletary $8

WR - K Allen $25, Boyd $20, Curtis Samuel $12, AJ Brown $7, Gordon $6, McLaurin $4, Reynolds $ 4

TE - Engram $18, Andrews $9, Gesicki $8

PK - Prater $4, Seibert $3, Hauschka $3

DEF - Seattle $5, Bengals $3, Jets $3

More thorough thought glurge later.

-QG

 

[BillyJoeBob]

...

S. Barkley
E. Elliott
A. Kamara

Three studs and nobody else.  Risky? Yes. Dumb?  Maybe.  Whatever, it should be interesting to see how this plays out.  Only 2 other teams have these three players but they have other RBs as well.  The health of these guys is critical obviously.

...

Interesting strategy.  I am more risk tolerant in this contest.  Making the final 250 is nice, but if you get there you want to be able to win.   One injury can take you out, but that is the case for most entries.  Good luck!!!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Apparently 162 entries will not have the benefit of Antonio Brown’s services this week.  

(mine is not one of them) 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

possibly

 I'm still believing in hill having some Aaron Jones moments where he scores rb1 numbers. 

Given Ingram’s injury history that’s a possibility. 

 

[Tha Guru]

Jameis Winston                                                                       
Josh Allen                                                                                   
Sam Darnold

I wanted 3 QB's this year as I have been burned by injuries the past couple of years in the contest.  Allen is great to have in this contest imo.                                                                                                 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nick Chubb                                                                            
Chris Carson                                              
LeSean McCoy                                      
Duke Johnson                                                     
Darwin Thompson

I love Chubb and Carson this year especially at their price points.                                       
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tyreek Hill                                        
JuJu Smith-Schuster                                                                  
Tyler Boyd                                                              
Emmanuel Sanders                                                                                                            
Josh Gordon

I went with only 5 WR's as I didn't like the cheaper options as opposed to the last couple of years                                                       
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vance McDonald                                                                                                              
Mark Andrews  

I loved these two at their price compared to other options available especially the higher rated TE's                                                                                                           
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Harrison Butker                                                                                                            
Austin Seibert                                                                      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Eagles                                              
Carolina Panthers 

 

[apalmer]

Apparently 162 entries will not have the benefit of Antonio Brown’s services this week.  

(mine is not one of them) 

No cuts this week, so they're probably glad it's now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No cuts this week, so they're probably glad it's now.

I mean, he could still be cut by the Raiders tho. 

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

In the example above, I believe Carr was $9, so why take Rosen over Carr with just $1 difference? 

I don't understand where this part is coming from.  Who said anything about taking Rosen?  A 30-player roster doesn't require literally taking all $8 players.  Of the 128 30-player rosters in this year's contest, only 2 have their top-priced QB at $8 or below.  

 

[rzrback77]

Pos Name # Owned % Owned Bye Cost
QB Jared Goff 2332 18.5% 9 $14
QB Lamar Jackson 5542 44.0% 8 $12
RB K. Johnson 1477 11.7% 5 $23
RB C. Carson 5391 42.8% 11 $18
RB Breida 3903 31.0% 4 $9
RB Dk Johnson 5246 41.6% 10 $9
RB Singletary 5023 39.8% 6 $8
WR Lockett 3938 31.2% 11 $19
WR Allen Robinson 918 7.3% 6 $17
WR Westbrook 3374 26.8% 10 $13
WR Gallup 2658 21.1% 8 $10
WR Moncrief 931 7.4% 7 $10
WR Josh Gordon 7177 56.9% 10 $6
WR Q.Enunwa 439 3.5% 4 $6
WR T. Gabriel 268 2.1% 6 $5
TE Hunter Henry 1583 12.6% 12 $17
TE Mark Andrews 3896 30.9% 8 $9
TE Chris Herndon 1061 8.4% 4 $8
TE Darren Waller 3145 24.9% 6 $8
TE Tyler Kroft 105 0.8% 8 $4
PK Santos 143 1.1% 11 $4
PK Bullock 693 5.5% 9 $3
PK Siebert 1582 12.5% 7 $3
TD Jaguars 1072 8.5% 10 $7
TD Cowboys 2830 22.4% 8 $5
TD New York Jets 2172 17.2% 11 $3


Consensus running back roster, highly owned QB duo, but quite a lot of separation with my WRs and TEs

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't understand where this part is coming from.  Who said anything about taking Rosen?  A 30-player roster doesn't require literally taking all $8 players.  Of the 128 30-player rosters in this year's contest, only 2 have their top-priced QB at $8 or below.  

It’s called a hypothetical / example.

and, in fact, someone on here very recently posted a lineup with Rosen as their QB2, hoping he’d be the starter in time for a week 8 BYE.

but in my post it was purely an example to illustrate the point I was making. 

Obviously not all the players need to be $8. 

Math tells us that $250/30 is $8.33

there are $4 K’s & $3 D’s. 

Assuming 2 ea of those, that adds $18 to the total budget for the other 26 players.

Now you’d be at $9.07/player for your remaining 26.

best of luck! 

 

[eNdblu]

QB: Mayfield, Allen 
RB: Cook, Montgomery, Carson, Duke, Breida
WR: OBJ, Lockett, Westbrook, Samuel, Gallup, Gordon
TE: Walker, Andrews, Herndon
PK: Meyers, Carlson, Seibert
DST: DEN, SEA

 

[Birdie048]

KICKERS

Top 5 - Butker (2345), Prater (2066), Seibert (1582), Boswell (1554), Hauschka (1416)

Bottom 5 - Gould (106), Santos (143), Hopkins (158), Gano (187), Catanzaro (204)

- Most spent was $104 (also tied with one other for the most with 20, but spent $19 more)

- Least spent was $3 (151 owners)

 

[Stray Doug]

Not mine, but here's a consensus roster taking highest-owned-percent at each position, minimum 2 per position, and then a minor judgement call to include Kelce over the combo of Dalvin/Darwin (had enough RBs already) or Dalvin/Jets:

Pos   Name            Team    Cost  # Owned    % Owned    Bye

QB    L Jackson       BAL     $14     5542      44.0%      8
QB    T Brady         NE      $11     2363      18.7%     10

RB    N Chubb         CLE     $25     3707      29.4%      7
RB    C Carson        SEA     $18     5391      42.8%     11
RB    A Ekeler        LAC     $16     3044      24.2%     12
RB    D Johnson       HOU      $9     5246      41.6%     10
RB    M Breida        SF       $9     3903      31.0%      4
RB    D Singletary    BUF      $8     5023      39.8%      6
RB    T Pollard       DAL      $4     3108      24.7%      8

WR    T Lockett       SEA     $19     3938      31.2%     11
WR    D Westbrook     JAX     $13     3374      26.8%     10
WR    C Samuel        CAR     $12     2532      20.1%      7
WR    M Valdes-Sca.   GB.     $11     3433      27.2%     11
WR    M Gallup        DAL     $10     2658      21.1%      8
WR    J Gordon        NE       $6     7177      56.9%     10

TE    T Kelce         KC.     $29     2024      16.1%     12
TE    M Andrews       BAL      $9     3896      30.9%      8
TE    D Waller        OAK      $8     3145      25.0%      6

DT    Cowboys         DAL      $5     2830      22.5%      8
DT    Seahawks        SEA      $5     2550      20.2%     11

PK    H Butker        KC       $6     2345      18.6%     12
PK    M Prater        DET      $4     2066      16.4%      5

Or swap for Kelce:
RB    D Cook          MIN     $24     2746      21.8%     12
DT    Jets            NYJ      $3     2172      17.2%      4

 

[Birdie048]

It’s called a hypothetical / example.

and, in fact, someone on here very recently posted a lineup with Rosen as their QB2, hoping he’d be the starter in time for a week 8 BYE.

but in my post it was purely an example to illustrate the point I was making. 

That was an earlier lineup I had tested...  I expected him to be starter after their week 5 Bye.  I have since moved on from such a gamble

 

[heckmanm]

LOL, I'm a sheep: Carson, Duke, Breida, Singletary, Lockett, Westbrook and Gordon all with 30+% ownership.

QBs are a little "better": Winston, Carr, Jones

My "unique" skill guys: RB CMC, WR M Thomas, TE: Engram/McDonald/Hurst

 

[Interseptopus]

Pos Name # Owned % Owned Bye Cost
QB Jared Goff 2332 18.5% 9 $14
QB Lamar Jackson 5542 44.0% 8 $12
RB K. Johnson 1477 11.7% 5 $23
RB C. Carson 5391 42.8% 11 $18
RB Breida 3903 31.0% 4 $9
RB Dk Johnson 5246 41.6% 10 $9
RB Singletary 5023 39.8% 6 $8
WR Lockett 3938 31.2% 11 $19
WR Allen Robinson 918 7.3% 6 $17
WR Westbrook 3374 26.8% 10 $13
WR Gallup 2658 21.1% 8 $10
WR Moncrief 931 7.4% 7 $10
WR Josh Gordon 7177 56.9% 10 $6
WR Q.Enunwa 439 3.5% 4 $6
WR T. Gabriel 268 2.1% 6 $5
TE Hunter Henry 1583 12.6% 12 $17
TE Mark Andrews 3896 30.9% 8 $9
TE Chris Herndon 1061 8.4% 4 $8
TE Darren Waller 3145 24.9% 6 $8
TE Tyler Kroft 105 0.8% 8 $4
PK Santos 143 1.1% 11 $4
PK Bullock 693 5.5% 9 $3
PK Siebert 1582 12.5% 7 $3
TD Jaguars 1072 8.5% 10 $7
TD Cowboys 2830 22.4% 8 $5
TD New York Jets 2172 17.2% 11 $3


Consensus running back roster, highly owned QB duo, but quite a lot of separation with my WRs and TEs

how do you find percent for the roster? only way I know is search each 1 by 1

 

[Birdie048]

C Wentz QB PHI 19 963 7.6%
J Winston QB TB 13 1997 15.8%
N Chubb RB CLE 25 3707 29.4%
M Ingram RB BAL 20 767 6.1%
L Murray RB NO 16 431 3.4%
M Sanders RB PHI 15 1538 12.2%
D Thompson RB KC 6 1869 14.8%
C Ridley WR ATL 20 763 6.1%
A Jeffery WR PHI 18 297 2.4%
R Anderson WR NYJ 17 735 5.8%
M Williams WR LAC 16 1212 9.6%
S Watkins WR KC 15 871 6.9%
D Westbrook WR JAX 13 3374 26.8%
T Hockenson TE DET 10 1509 12.0%
M Andrews TE BAL 9 3896 30.9%
D Bailey PK MIN 4 1264 10.0%
S Hauschka PK BUF 3 1416 11.2%
A Seibert PK CLE 3 1582 12.6%
Seahawks DT SEA 5 2550 20.2%
49ers DT SF 3 1248 9.9%




Biggest Surprise to me is Wentz, Jeffery & Watkins so low in ownership.

Chubb, Westbrook & M Andrews > 25% is no surprise.

 

[Birdie048]

how do you find percent for the roster? only way I know is search each 1 by 1

I did them 1 at a time.....  only way I know.. 

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

It’s called a hypothetical / example.

and, in fact, someone on here very recently posted a lineup with Rosen as their QB2, hoping he’d be the starter in time for a week 8 BYE.

but in my post it was purely an example to illustrate the point I was making. 

Obviously not all the players need to be $8. 

Math tells us that $250/30 is $8.33

there are $4 K’s & $3 D’s. 

Assuming 2 ea of those, that adds $18 to the total budget for the other 26 players.

Now you’d be at $9.07/player for your remaining 26.

best of luck! 

Sure, like I said, the question is: was the pricing so tough this year that spending an average of $9 per skill position player means you end up with mostly unproductive scrubs?  The answer is, it probably was.  It was definitely much tougher than in past years, such that the 30-man rosters will probably do worse than they usually do.  But I doubt it was so tough that 22-23 player rosters will underperform.  The general idea that a larger number of cheaper players is worse than a smaller number of more expensive players has been consistently proven wrong (definitely in terms of survival, and also I think in final 250 performance), I just think the upper bound on viable larger rosters is probably lower this year than usual.  

 

[Grid71]

Breida Godwin I beat u. Luv, DaBears

wish we had more room for this team name. Had Mahomes, Kielce, Connor, Golladay and Kupp as my core. Tempted by Lockett but didn’t want to invest that heavily in Seattle’s offense. Invested extra in QB to get me through week 12.  Trubisky was my favorite fit   

starting lineup in case I forget to set one next week

Mahomes (Trubisky plays NYG week 12)

Connor and Carson

Golladay and Kupp

Kelce (Herndon)

Flex: Westbrook and Duke (alternates Breida and Gordon)

Maximum effort BOOM players: MVS and Stills   Using my rose colored glasses on Stills. He’s going to put up some huge weeks.

End Game difference maker: RB J Hill.  My prediction is he will be a first rounder next year.

3 early bye kickers

Pit and Jets D.  Steeler homer and like matchups for both teams during playoff weeks 

 

[TheWinz]

Sure, like I said, the question is: was the pricing so tough this year that spending an average of $9 per skill position player means you end up with mostly unproductive scrubs?  The answer is, it probably was.  It was definitely much tougher than in past years, such that the 30-man rosters will probably do worse than they usually do.  But I doubt it was so tough that 22-23 player rosters will underperform.  The general idea that a larger number of cheaper players is worse than a smaller number of more expensive players has been consistently proven wrong (definitely in terms of survival, and also I think in final 250 performance), I just think the upper bound on viable larger rosters is probably lower this year than usual.  

Here is a hypothetical 30-man roster that seems like it would do OK. No, this isn't mine, I really did just make it up.

QB - Jackson, Prescott, Brady = $35

RB - Carson, Ekeler, Breida, Johnson, Singletary, Mattison, Gore = $70

WR - Lockett, Westbrook, Fitzgerald, Samuel, Valdes-Scantling, Gallup, Gordon, Chark = $88

TE - Andrews, Herndon, Waller, Eifert = $33

K - Gay, Carlson, Gonzalez, Seibert = $12

D - CIN, NYJ, SF, TB = $12

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

QB (2/38) - Mahomes, Brady

RB (6/81) - Kamara, Carson, Duke, Breida, Singletary & Gore

WR (5/87) - Julio, Lockett, Robinson, Westbrook, Gordon

TE (3/26) - Walker / Doyle, Uzomah

PK (2/8)   - Prater / Lambo - more reliable (?) than $3 trash

TD (2/10) - Cowboys / Seahawks - I suspect both are underpriced at $5.

At roster 20, I'm investing more in RB/WR/TE depth than in TE1/RB2/WR2 approach of roster 18-19.  Conscious decision.

I bolded Walker AND Doyle as I see them as TE1BC leaving unbolded WB/WR/TE as depth for flex pool and bye week coverage.

RB/WR/TE Bye Summary - 1/1/1 each on bye weeks 9-11 except bottom 2 WRs on bye week 10.  Week 9 is pinch point: Kamara, Julio, Uzomah

Having Kamara and Julio both on Week 9 is debateable but these are the ones I wanted to have.  I was going to go Elliot when he signed, but his playoff schedule is a murderer's row.

The semi-finalists (sorry you didn't make the cut)

Sam Darnold (Week 12 hosting Raiders on Mahomes bye week)

Chubb, Freeman, Sony Michel

Mike Evans, Cooper, Ty Williams (the new WR1 in Oakland?!?!?!!!), Jaron Brown ($4 dollars with a shot at wrestling the WR2 job)

Mark Andrews

 

[Saint]

As usual.... waited to the last minute with changes.  Here we go, 26 guy rooster.  Looking at it again this morning, I actually am still fairly good with it.

QB - Tom Brady - 11
QB - Derek Carr - 9
QB - Daniel Jones - 4

I had Brady in from the start as I like the value he has at 11 dollars.  Felt pretty comfortable with his value to performance.  Derek Carr as I didn't want to overspend, but I am a believer in the Gruden QB coaching.  So I think he has a better year than expected.  Daniel Jones has looked good and if they are out of it midyear, I think he has a chance to play.  So he was more for the later weeks hoping he comes and adds value, besides for $4, I felt he was a nice value steal.

RB - Alvin Kamar - 33
RB - Kerryon Johnson - 23
RB - Tevin Coleman - 18
RB - Devin Singletary - 8
RB - Alexander Mattison - 6
RB - Darwin Thompson - 5
RB - Tony Pollard - 4

Hoping that between Kamar, Johnson, Coleman, Singletary to get decent production.  In addition, they have earlier bye weeks, when there is more room to miss.  One of the goals was to have as much early byes where I could and have the pot luck shot in the later weeks.  Really liked Mattison at 6 and I think he gets playing time this year.  Thompson, I am thinking may have been a throw away after the McCoy signing, but we'll see what happens.  I still like Pollard as insurance for Zeke behind that O-line.

WR - Chris Godwin - 22
WR - Jarvis Landry - 18
WR - Dede Westbrook - 13
WR - DK Metcalf - 11
WR - Cole Beasley - 6
WR - Josh Gordon - 6
WR - Miles Boykin - 6

I wish I had another QB.  This is a swing for the fences on guys that a lot of roosters may not have.  I really look for the top 3 to be core.  They should score fairly well as the opposing WR will be drawing heavier coverage.  I like the upside with DK and Miles.  I think both could have solid years.  Cole has been under the radar, but with Josh Allen, I am thinking he could be a solid slot receiver and do a lot of damage.  Gordon to pair with Brady.  If they figure it out, I wanted to keep up with the masses. 

TE - Eric Ebron - 16
TE - Darren Waller - 8
TE - Hayden Hurst - 4

Wanted MacDonald for TE, but the bye week just created too many issues.  So went with Ebron and hoping he can stay fantasy relevant.  Always had Waller and Hurst from the start.  Waller has looked good and with the Antonio situation, hoping he could be a good connection guy for Carr.  Carr showed a tendency to TE with Cook and hoping some of that continues.  Hurst was just because.  Andrews is getting a lot of attention, but before Hurst's injury, he was a rising star in Baltimore.  I can't imagine one injury has left him as a bust.  I think we'll see more double TE sets here and that will make Hurst viable.

PK - Chris Boswell - 4
PK - Jason Sanders - 3
PK - Daniel Carlson  - 3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - 3
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 3
TD - New York Jets - 3

Always go with the cheap 3 Ks and 3 Ds.

Total value: 250

 

[Birdie048]

PK - Chris Boswell - 4
PK - Jason Sanders - 3
PK - Daniel Carlson  - 3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - 3
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 3
TD - New York Jets - 3

Always go with the cheap 3 Ks and 3 Ds.

The obvious flaw is SF & NYJ both on Bye week 4 while Cinn is at Pitt on MNF, but that might be fine early in season.

 

[Saint]

The obvious flaw is SF & NYJ both on Bye week 4 while Cinn is at Pitt on MNF, but that might be fine early in season.

Yup.  But since it was the 1st week of byes.... I felt good about the risk, especially with only one other player on bye (Coleman).  Unfortunately.. just realized I screwed up my TE bye week and my top 2 WR bye week....  #@ @#$^ *@&#^ !*&^#

 

[L3gion]

Would be interesting to see the cheapest roster that would make the cut each week and derivative stats (how often do particular players appear on this roster, how much did it cost/how much was not used, etc.). Might give us an insight to what the actual value players are vs. what we thought they were.

 

[joffer]

B Roethlisberger, T Brady

J White, A Ekeler, K Drake, J Samuels, J Hill, M Breida

M Evans, T Lockett, M Gallup, D Samuel, J Gordon, M Hardman, J Ross

G Kittle, D Waller, M LaCosse

B McManus, M Prater, A Seibert

BrownsDT, CowboysDT, JetsDT

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I almost forgot to enter the contest so I only did about 15 minutes on it but here goes:

Lamar Jackson (12), Tom Brady (11)

David Johnson (30), David Montgomery (18), Duke Johnson (9), Matt Breida (8), Devon Singletary (8), Frank Gore (4)

Juju Smith -Schuster (30), Tyler Lockett (19), Marquez Valdez-Scantling (11), Michael Gallup (10), John Brown (9), Josh Gordon (6), Miles Boykin (6)

Evan Engram (18), Dallas Goedert (12), Mark Andrews (9)

Matt Prater (4), Steve Hauschka (3), Austin Seibert (3)

Seahawks (5), Panthers (4)

 

 

[rustycolts]

Here is a link from Steelers Calcomatic that shows highest % owned.  No surprise J Gordon most owned.  Hey @Steeler thanks for doing live scoring again.  I will be heading over to donate.

http://calcomatic.com/PctOverall

 

[Saint]

Andrew Luck is owned by 5 folks.  What do they know that I don't?

 

[Shaunz33]

Only 32 hours left to deadline.  Can't wait to start using this year's contest querier.  Time to guess which player at each position will be the most owned...

QB - Lamar Jackson

RB - Duke Johnson

WR - Josh Gordon

ZTE - Mark Andrews

K - Austin Seibert

D - Jets

Sep 2

You probably nailed it. Maybe a cheap QB like jones will be popular as people seem to like a cheap 3rd QB. Thompson will be up there with Duke. I will include a few mid price guys:

QB: Jackson, Jones, Winston

RB: Duke, Carson, Thompson

WR: Gordon, MVS, Lockett

TE: Andrews, Waller, Njoku? (actually I have no clue after Andrews)

K/D: the low dollar ones

————————-

Ok I got 1st QB, first 2 RB, all 3 WR and first 2 TEs. Plus Winston was 4th not 3rd. Way off on jones, njoku and Thompson not as popular as figured. Guess many switched him after McCoy deal?

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I don't understand where this part is coming from.  Who said anything about taking Rosen?  A 30-player roster doesn't require literally taking all $8 players.  Of the 128 30-player rosters in this year's contest, only 2 have their top-priced QB at $8 or below.  

Exactly. And it’s further bolstered by the fact that DST and PK will all be sub-$8, pushing the average up for the other positions.  6 of those @ $3-4 per, lets the other 24 average ~$9-$10. The “small roster” guys aren’t spending $13-14 at every single spot either.

I settled in at 24 this year, so I’m smack dab in the middle of the extremes, no dog in the hunt.  But you could have easily built a 30 man roster with a fair number of $15+ guys to serve as the core. 

 

[ZWK]

I usually go for a large roster studs-and-scrubs lineup, in order to both have a few difference makers and take advantage of best ball. This year's tighter pricing among the low-end options made that trickier, but I still ended up with 26 guys. Ownership percentages from here.

QB: 3 for $29
15.8%    QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
6.2%    QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12
5.7%    QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $4

RB: 5 for $66
7.5%    RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/11 - $36
41.6%    RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
31.0%    RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9
39.8%    RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
8.7%    RB - Frank Gore - BUF/6 - $4

WR: 7 for $67
14.3%    WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT/7 - $30
20.1%    WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
56.9%    WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6
3.5%    WR - Quincy Enunwa - NYJ/4 - $6
2.1%    WR - Taylor Gabriel - CHI/6 - $5
3.3%    WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/10 - $4
1.6%    WR - Chris Conley - JAX/10 - $4

TE: 3 for $62
16.1%    TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
5.7%    TE - George Kittle - SF/4 - $25
8.4%    TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8

PK: 4 for $13
16.4%    PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
7.7%    PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
7.6%    PK - Daniel Carlson - OAK/6 - $3
12.6%    PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/7 - $3

Def: 4 for $13
5.2%    TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
9.9%    TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
4.4%    TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3
17.2%    TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Breaking it down by price range:

Studs ($24+): 4 for $120. 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 TE. Elite TEs are where it's at - I got Kelce & Kittle and wish I could've fit Ertz in too. I usually take 2 stud RBs because I don't like the cheaper guys, but this year that wasn't a problem so I just got Barkley who is the best of the bunch and has a nice wk14-16 schedule. JuJu could lead the NFL in targets. Only 1 other team has the same 4 studs.

Solid starters ($11-$23): 3 for $37: 2 QB, 1 WR. The $11-14 range is the sweet spot at QB. Over $14 you're paying for a small difference in players (unless you go Mahomes), and under $11 you're giving up a lot of expected production for not much savings (unless you gamble on a $4 guy). So I got 2 guys that I like in that range. WR Curtis Samuel has a nice mix of floor & upside - I mostly avoid R/W/T in this price range, but this year's pricing made it less enticing to break him apart into a bunch of scrubs.

Undervalued midrange guys ($6-$10): 6 for $46. 3 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE. Josh Gordon, Duke Johnson, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida are all borderline starters in traditional leagues and obvious buys in this contest thanks to news that broke after prices were set. Chris Herndon is not far behind them, especially if you trust the rest of your roster to take you through week 5. Enunwa is basically one of the cheap value plays, and seemed worth paying a dollar or two more for given the weak options there.

Cheap value plays ($2-$5): 13 for $47. 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 4 PK, 4 Def. Kicker & defense are the obvious places to go cheap and plentiful to ride the best ball wave. I went with 4 of each, and threw an extra dollar each at Detroit's PK & D since they seem significantly better than the 4th best $3 option. I wish I could've gotten more cheap WRs, but a bunch of them cost a dollar more than I was willing to pay (which I guess means job well done on the pricing this year), and like half of my favorites shared a wk10 bye. I settled on 3: McLaurin at $4 seems like the best value WR, Gabriel at $5 is a pretty good value and has a different bye, and Conley at $4 happened to make my roster come out to an even $250 (I would've preferred someone like Chark or Quinn at their price but I couldn't find a way of reshuffling my roster that I liked better). At RB, Gore should probably get 100+ touches and is only $4. Based on the preseason it seemed worth betting on Daniel Jones's chances of being the QB down the stretch and doing something with the job.

My thinking by position:

QB: Generally good to get 2-3 guys here and not spend too much. I got 2 solid guys with some upside, plus a cheap guy whose value could be close behind them down the stretch.
RB: These guys are usually overpriced relative to their production, so I typically get 4-5 of them and go stud-heavy. This year the value trio made things easy - I got those 3 plus a stud and a cheap committee back. Before the news broke on those 3 I had been considering a 1 stud + 4-5 lottery ticket lineup (something like Kamara, Darwin, Pollard, Ty Montgomery, and Mattison).
WR: This is generally a great place to throw numbers at it, and maybe get a stud or two. I got 1 stud, 2 WR3 types with some upside (one who came extra cheap but carries extra risk), and 4 cheapish value plays. I would've gotten more cheap guys but the pricing was unfavorable for that strategy this year.
TE: The way to go at TE varies year-by-year depending on pricing & values. This year the studs were where it's at. I got 2 studs, and 1 pretty cheap high-end TE2 with some upside.
PK: The play here is to get 3-4 cheap ones, since they're under a dollar per start. I got 4, for $1 over the minimum.
TD: The play here is to get 3-4 cheap ones, since they're under a dollar per start. I got 4, for $1 over the minimum.

Some guys who I wasn't quite able to fit on my roster: WR Trey Quinn, WR DJ Chark, TE Mark Andrews, TE Zach Ertz.

I was also considering guys like QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, WR Danny Amendola, TE Darren Waller, WR Dede Westbrook, WR Michael Gallup, RB Ty Montgomery, RB Tony Pollard, WR Cole Beasley, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Alvin Kamara, and RB Ezekiel Elliott.

 

[jerseys finest]

Can you post your lineup?

QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $19
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12

RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/12 - $24
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/10 - $15
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Matt Breida - SF/4 - $9

WR - Amari Cooper - DAL/8 - $24
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/9 - $8
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

TE - Hunter Henry - LAC/12 - $17
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8

PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE/10 - $6
PK - Matt Prater - DET/4 - $4

TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

nothing crazy, but I liked it. apparently so did at least one-two other people.  

 

[stubby]

Deshaun Watson        $24                                          

Daniel Jones           $4                            

Ezekiel Elliott  $33                  

Nick Chubb            $25                                          

Chris Carson          $18            

Matt Breida            $9            

Julio Jones         $32                                             

Tyler Lockett         $19 

Sammy Watkins         $15    

Curtis Samuel         $12                                    

Trey Quinn             $6                                   

Josh Gordon            $6                                     

Mecole Hardman         $5                    

Evan Engram           $18                                   

Mark Andrews           $9                            

Chris Boswell          $4                                              

Steve Hauschka         $3                                               

Seattle Seahawks       $5                 

New York Jets  $3

19 total players. Go big/go home. This year I believe  you have to take big risks to finish in the money.  Lack of $$ spent on TE might be ultimate downfall. Was excited about Julio's schedule in all the domes, but today's news is a little unsettling. Suprised not to see Watson on more rosters. Took the Watkins/Hardman combo to get  piece of the KC offense, without spending too much on a late bye week. Many have Chubb/Carson/Breida, but not too many with Zeke.