fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I’m seeing Trump at -145 now.
I think Ohio is clearly in Trump's favor now. Lead has shrunk to 100k with a ton of votes to be counted.Unless somehow Biden pulls Ohio or Trump pulls Minnesota.
Half a million latino voters that are going to vote just like they did in Miami Dade. IMO.Certainly bodes well for PA. Very similar demographics.
Let's just say its gonna be a lot closer than 2016.We don't know if it's close in Ohio. The early voting advantages throw everything off. Florida a great example of that. It looked like a close race, but Trump is likely going to do better in Florida this year than last.
OH has closed to around 100KWe don't know if it's close in Ohio. The early voting advantages throw everything off. Florida a great example of that. It looked like a close race, but Trump is likely going to do better in Florida this year than last.
Don’t forget OhioArizona/Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.
Trump needs 3/4. Biden needs 2/4
I tend to agree, but with uncertainty about where the vote is left and whether all of the mail-ins are counted already, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.I think Ohio is clearly in Trump's favor now. Lead has shrunk to 100k with a ton of votes to be counted.
I read that in Mike's voice. Seemed more meaningful.Yeah don’t bet against Vegas
Donald Trump -210 on sportsbook.agI’m seeing Trump at -145 now.
To swing the odds back I mean to where Biden was basically 2-1.huh?
on polling alone he had 278 pre-election
he can win with no flips
Trump on the other hand has no path without a flip
no flips so far
I didn’t know there was a big Cuban population in Pennsylvania.Half a million latino voters that are going to vote just like they did in Miami Dade. IMO.
He's a smart guy, but he puts WAY too much emphasis on polling.And here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
The story out of that part of FL is shocking to meDonna Shalala and Debbie Murcasel-Powell likely to lose FL-26 and Fl-27 by about 3%. They were flipped in 2018. Conservative Hispanic numbers must be off the charts.
Also, Cunningham holding a lead in NC with about 80% in.The senate is getting interesting now..democrats flip Colorado
I remember how ecstatic some of you guys were in 2016. Like it was the best day that ever happened in some people’s lives. No shade but I’m hoping not to have to read that againI'm glad you got your smile back. In this landslide that won't be close. Keep giving us your insider takes.
Perhaps the vote by mail is going to be dumped last? I just can't believe the DC suburbs are going to stay at those percentagesWhat is happening in VA? Is anyone pulling back the quick call?
I'm not so sure. The tabulations aren't coming in nearly the same way as 2016. It's like Biden is getting all his votes counted within the first 70% and the remainder are going overwhelmingly to Trump. And it's repeating everywhere. It could be as simple as most Dems voted early and today's in-person vote is extra-proportionally going to Trump. And no one's models were prepared for it.Let's just say its gonna be a lot closer than 2016.
Until Fairfax county comes in, it's too early imo.What is happening in VA? Is anyone pulling back the quick call?
Much of the DC area hasn’t reported which is very blue.What is happening in VA? Is anyone pulling back the quick call?
They've now corrected this bit to 3 electoral votes.They aren't even showing the individual districts for Nebraska or Maine. Do they even know what they're doing?NYT just called all 5 Nebraska electoral votes for Trump with 0% reporting. That has to be an automation mistake, right?
Grab a drink!I didn’t know there was a big Cuban population in Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump -210 on sportsbook.ag
Maybe if you're saying that the ~50% outstanding votes in the urban areas are going mostly to trump.I'm not so sure. The tabulations are coming in nearly the same way as 2016. It's like Biden is getting all his votes counted within the first 70% and the remainder are going overwhelmingly to Trump. And it's repeating everywhere. It could be as simple as most Dems voted early and today's in-person vote is extra-proportionally going to Trump. And no one's models were prepared for it.
I could be wrong.
That's what I've been saying - there is way more uncertainty than his models would suggest. If a bunch of polls are off in a key demographic, it can be way off. Not necessarily his fault, but I think he significantly downplays how many things can go wrong to throw the whole thing out of whack.He's a smart guy, but he puts WAY too much emphasis on polling.
Link?Why does SC pick the dem candidate so often in primaries when they won’t support said candidate when it comes to the general election?
Ohio's mail-in votes have to have been postmarked by yesterday or today.How many ballots will be uncounted tonight? And which states?
These guys need to close up shop.And here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
If you hover the mouse over the states on their main page, they're still implying that Trump has won all 5 electoral votes in NE.They've now corrected this bit to 3 electoral votes.They aren't even showing the individual districts for Nebraska or Maine. Do they even know what they're doing?NYT just called all 5 Nebraska electoral votes for Trump with 0% reporting. That has to be an automation mistake, right?
When To Expect Election Results In Every StateHow many ballots will be uncounted tonight? And which states?
So they may not arrive till later this week?Ohio's mail-in votes have to have been postmarked by yesterday or today.
I’m an independent so just an observationBiden will win for sure. Good call.
They're just analyzing polls. I think there are lots of deceptive Trump voters answering polls. How do you account for that?These guys need to close up shop.
But now it has an extra column far right showing 3 EV for Trump, which wasn't there before.If you hover the mouse over the states on their main page, they're still implying that Trump has won all 5 electoral votes in NE.
Unbelievable. Well, not really.And here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
Timing of results
Most results will be announced quickly, but we’ll have to wait for the rest. By 8 p.m. Eastern, each county is required to announce the results of all absentee ballots (including early in-person votes) that were received by Election Day. Results from Election Day polling places will then follow throughout the night. However, Ohio also counts absentee ballots that arrive by mail until Nov. 13 — but counties will not announce those results until their official canvasses on Nov. 14-18 (interim results will not be reported). That said, counties will report the number of outstanding absentee ballots late on election night, so we will know whether there are enough ballots remaining to affect the winner of the election.
I'm sure your independence is seeing the world correctly. Did you vote for trump?I’m an independent so just an observation