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****OFFICIAL 2021-22 FBG Playoff Subscriber Contest**** (1 Viewer)

Ok, I lost my nerve.  Now on third iteration.  Let's say you spend $170 on players you project to be in the SB, leaving $80 for players to survive rounds 1-3.  Whether that $80 gets spent on 8 players or 18 players is tricky.  I have KC playing 3 rounds, and had Mahomes at $40, but this feels really wrong when I can get 3 point producers with that kind of investment.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Ok, I lost my nerve.  Now on third iteration.  Let's say you spend $170 on players you project to be in the SB, leaving $80 for players to survive rounds 1-3.  Whether that $80 gets spent on 8 players or 18 players is tricky.  I have KC playing 3 rounds, and had Mahomes at $40, but this feels really wrong when I can get 3 point producers with that kind of investment.
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I am having some serious dejavu.  :)  

 
Based on FBG projections I'm looking at 148.6.  If you selected the top 10 QBs playing this weekend you would be looking at 238.7 points.

 
BassNBrew said:
May not be.  You have to figure a 1/4 of the people are going to pick two players from as many teams as they can and will be over 200.
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So....like the regular season cutoff changes....the name of the game is figuring out how to "barely survive" until endgame.  #hopeless.  :D

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
So....like the regular season cutoff changes....the name of the game is figuring out how to "barely survive" until endgame.  #hopeless.  :D
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Built for Comfort not speed....lol! Having enough at the end is the tricky part especially if you go with the favorites or semi-favorites who all are expensive as all get out! I have stuck to my guns on who I think gets there in the end and really not done too many roster churns this time around, only 1 real Cinderella story team to advance a little ways, otherwise its mostly favorites and I really am worried IF I get there will I have enough of the firepower to finish in the money....Its the challenge of the contest that makes you feel like your some sort of addict....Course there is always the green monster:

Me: Hi I'm Dacomish and I am a FBG Contest Roster Churn addict

Group: Welcome!

Group: So would anyone like to share....

Me: Well there I was on roster change #122.....

 
With a Saturday forecasted high of 12 at Buffalo, and some wind, don’t you expect conservative play calling that will limit production in that first round game? Particularly with two stout defenses. Would you avoid players on those two teams, even if you were soundly behind Buffalo to advance to the Conference finals?

 
rzrback77 said:
With a Saturday forecasted high of 12 at Buffalo, and some wind, don’t you expect conservative play calling that will limit production in that first round game? Particularly with two stout defenses. Would you avoid players on those two teams, even if you were soundly behind Buffalo to advance to the Conference finals?
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Cold temps are not a big deal.  The Bucs game in Florida is actually the only game projected to have wind/rain enough to materially impact the game.  I'll be starting Bills with confidence (I have them beating the Rams in the superbowl...which is painful since I"m a Pats fan).

 
rzrback77 said:
With a Saturday forecasted high of 12 at Buffalo, and some wind, don’t you expect conservative play calling that will limit production in that first round game? Particularly with two stout defenses. Would you avoid players on those two teams, even if you were soundly behind Buffalo to advance to the Conference finals?
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It's a concern.  Allen has been terrible in cold weather and Mac Jones hasn't been in cold weather since his pregnant mom was visiting relatives up north.  That said, the Buffalo pricing is very affordable IMO.

 
BassNBrew said:
It's a concern.  Allen has been terrible in cold weather and Mac Jones hasn't been in cold weather since his pregnant mom was visiting relatives up north.  That said, the Buffalo pricing is very affordable IMO.
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I try not to bet against BB in the playoffs. I could see the Pats pulling one out in this one. They probably won’t, but they could. 

 
bro1ncos said:
I could easily see BB goal of <10 throws for Mac and a bunch of new wrinkles on D to fluster Allen. 
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It took a while, but Allen is beyond all that now.  What you will see in Game 3 is pretty much what you saw in Game 2.  Allen will use his legs and a variety of receivers to move the ball relentlessly down the field while the defense plays patient and forces Jones into a couple turnovers.  Bills 23 Pats 17.

 
I've redone it so I have 8 scoring players active on WC weekend. But that is probably not enough. Gonna try to slice it down once more.

 
Only 5 in WC weekend for me, partly bc I have Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Maybe I only have ~20% chance in surviving the first week, especially with the new 50% cut, but I feel like you have to have at least eight players in the Super Bowl to finish in the money. 

 
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Hate throwing away slots on guys that I think will last only 1 week.

But I think I need to do it to escape week 1.

Disturbed by some of the teams I am completely fading :unsure:

Always a fun challenge :)

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
1. Hate throwing away slots on guys that I think will last only 1 week.

2. But I think I need to do it to escape week 1.

3. Disturbed by some of the teams I am completely fading :unsure:

4. Always a fun challenge :)

-QG
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1- I picked some players on underdog teams, but I am hopeful that they will win (Arizona, SF & Las Vegas)

2- Never can tell about this contest and I suspect there will be many teams composed of two players from up to 12 teams, so you almost must carry players on teams that you think will only last two weeks at the most.

3- I wonder how many entries will completely fade both #1 seeds

4- Totally agree that this is the MOST difficult contests that I participate in.

Best of luck to @QuizGuy66 and all those that hang out here in the contest thread.

 
With the cut being 50% each round is anyone changing their strategy to increase the number of players playing during the playoff and limiting the number of players in the super bowl?  Said another way, I wonder if it will require fewer players in the super bowl this year to do well based on the 50% cut because teams too top heavy have a greater chance at being cut.

 
Steeler said:
With the cut being 50% each round is anyone changing their strategy to increase the number of players playing during the playoff and limiting the number of players in the super bowl?  Said another way, I wonder if it will require fewer players in the super bowl this year to do well based on the 50% cut because teams too top heavy have a greater chance at being cut.
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That's probably directionally correct, but there will be some entries that don't factor this in and still sneak into the SB, at which point they'll have a big advantage.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
New England, Dallas, Arizona, Las Vegas, Tennessee....all 1 and done in my forecast.
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I agree with all those, except Arizona who will beat LA Rams again. How many points would SF be taking on Green Bay in the 2nd round? I am all in on SF and think that the upset of the playoffs could well be them beating the Packers.

 
rzrback77 said:
I agree with all those, except Arizona who will beat LA Rams again. How many points would SF be taking on Green Bay in the 2nd round? I am all in on SF and think that the upset of the playoffs could well be them beating the Packers.
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I agree is quite possible that ARI beats LAR....can you imagine the front office reaction to that after all the money the GM has thrown at this year?  

GB will get -4.5 to -6.5 vs SFO depending on how bad the Cowboys look tomorrow.  I expect Dallas to look ok but lose a close game, so GB-4.5 vs SFO, 51 total.

It's interesting to think about Dallas, Green Bay and the Rams being on one spectrum....regular season front runners who fold in the post season.

 
I think there are legitimate 7-8 of the playoff teams that could make the Super Bowl. It's been a crazy year and if a team gets a couple of breaks it could be a crazy day in SoFi. 

Trying to pick a SB match up that I think few will follow. 

18 players and would wind up with 14 in the big game. Just need to hit on my 2 and dones to help me get thru. 

 
bro1ncos said:
I think there are legitimate 7-8 of the playoff teams that could make the Super Bowl. It's been a crazy year and if a team gets a couple of breaks it could be a crazy day in SoFi. 

Trying to pick a SB match up that I think few will follow. 

18 players and would wind up with 14 in the big game. Just need to hit on my 2 and dones to help me get thru. 
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This year seems worse than other years nailing the Super Bowl teams. And if you go with the favorites how do you distinguish your team from others that are going to have the same top players? Not only do you have to get the SB teams right but you have to get that SB $4-6 player right that is going to go off during SB week.

 
barackdhouse said:
You're going to do what now?
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There's a bunch of Packer and Titans players I like at value prices. So after this week when someone like Pittsburgh loses I'm going to take the money I invested in D. Johnson and redistribute it to the value plays on bye this week.

I don't want to give anything away but I'll let you know next week after the Saturday afternoon rooster lockdown.

I think it's a winning strategy that not many people are going to take advantage of. It's worth the extra $ though to upgrade in the contest.

 
KingPrawn said:
There's a bunch of Packer and Titans players I like at value prices. So after this week when someone like Pittsburgh loses I'm going to take the money I invested in D. Johnson and redistribute it to the value plays on bye this week.

I don't want to give anything away but I'll let you know next week after the Saturday afternoon rooster lockdown.

I think it's a winning strategy that not many people are going to take advantage of. It's worth the extra $ though to upgrade in the contest.
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 I think you need to read the rules again.

 
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KingPrawn said:
There's a bunch of Packer and Titans players I like at value prices. So after this week when someone like Pittsburgh loses I'm going to take the money I invested in D. Johnson and redistribute it to the value plays on bye this week.

I don't want to give anything away but I'll let you know next week after the Saturday afternoon rooster lockdown.

I think it's a winning strategy that not many people are going to take advantage of. It's worth the extra $ though to upgrade in the contest.
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Either you really really badly misunderstand the rules, or I do.

 
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