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Official 2024-2025 FBG Subscriber Playoff Contest (1 Viewer)

Do the winners usually get every team right along the way?
So far I’ve only lost Herbert for the next round, although I have Minnesota winning tonight and losing next week so that might change.
 
Still not a fan of this format. After Herbert tossed up a stinker my team is covered. Effectively eliminated from winning after the first game.
 
Wildcard round
Josh Jacobs - rb - GB 21.10 x 1 = 21.10
Puka Nacua - wr - LAR 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Bucky Irving - rb - TB 16.30 x 1 = 16.30
Mike Evans - wr - TB 22.20 x 1 = 22.20
Jayden Daniels - qb - WAS 22.32 x 1 = 22.32
Terry McLaurin - wr - WAS 21.90 x 1 = 21.90


Divisional round
Jameson Williams - wr - DET 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Travis Kelce - te - KC 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Justin Jefferson - wr - MIN 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
T.J. Hockenson - te - MIN 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Minnesota Vikings - td - MIN 0.00 x 2 = 0.00


Championship round
Lamar Jackson - qb - BAL 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Derrick Henry - rb - BAL 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Mark Andrews - te - BAL 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Jahmyr Gibbs - rb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown - wr - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Sam LaPorta - te - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00


Super Bowl
Josh Allen - qb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
James Cook - rb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Khalil Shakir - wr - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
A.J. Brown - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 103.82
 
BassNBrew said:
Still not a fan of this format. After Herbert tossed up a stinker my team is covered. Effectively eliminated from winning after the first game.
Click to expand...

Same, salary cap or just picking a team that lasts the entire playoffs is preferable. Also, I never liked these contests that put so much emphasis on getting the superbowl teams right.

But hey, this contest is essentially free, so I'll take it.
 
joey said:
anyone have Dobbins in their line up and showing 0 points scored?
I know it’s only 26 yards rushing, but every point counts.

ETA: Nevermind. Posted my current standings but it keeps changing every time I refresh the page even though there’s no game going on right now.
Click to expand...
Dobbins score is fixed now (2.6). Thanks FBG.

I’ve dropped to 1223rd place and have now lost 2 players from next week (McConkey and Mayfield). Already feeling cooked.

But again, it’s FREE and I only did one pass at this since just guessing the brackets correctly thru the Super Bowl is enough of a giant dart throw, so I didn’t over think which players from those teams I picked (only picked the studs, of course).
 
121.42 pts, 224th, players remaining (3, 4, 6)

Likely my best spot in the standings as I expect to fall off the mark quite a bit after losing 5 future players.

Kind of agree with Bass that the previous contest parameters were more fun and you didn't feel like you were out of the running after the WC games. Still, I do enjoy this contest. It is very difficult.

In its current format I believe it is much harder to get to SB weekend and feel like you might have a chance. You might be able to predict every game winner correct to keep your player choices viable each week but one wrong game prediction probably spells doom. Three wrong game predictions like I had this past weekend makes my contest entry a guaranteed loser.

@Joe Bryant Thanks for giving subscribers another free fantasy contest to participate in! Always appreciated!
 
Dacomish said:
I didn't score a bunch, but haven't lost any players yet...meh.
Click to expand...
Ditto. Went super conservative in that I didn't put anybody but BUF/BAL/KC/DET/PHI players in the Divisional Round or beyond. What really hurt me in Round 1 was using Herbert and Darnold. Should have known better. :<_<:
 
My life in this contest should end today but I am very impressed with Jayden Daniels. He’s a winner and clutch. Detroit should win but there are no guarantees.

Large contest like this, I prefer an entry that will do exceptionally well riding an underdog vs duke it out vs 2000 other Detroit entries. That’s how I came in 2nd back when Green Bay played Pittsburgh.

Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Xavier Worthy - wr - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jayden Daniels - qb - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Brian Robinson Jr. - rb - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Terry McLaurin - wr - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Zach Ertz - te - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 96.28
 
Grid71 said:
My life in this contest should end today but I am very impressed with Jayden Daniels. He’s a winner and clutch. Detroit should win but there are no guarantees.

Large contest like this, I prefer an entry that will do exceptionally well riding an underdog vs duke it out vs 2000 other Detroit entries. That’s how I came in 2nd back when Green Bay played Pittsburgh.

Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Xavier Worthy - wr - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jayden Daniels - qb - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Brian Robinson Jr. - rb - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Terry McLaurin - wr - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Zach Ertz - te - WAS 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 96.28
Click to expand...
I am the only one with this final 6. Problem is, I have already lost 2 players each in rounds 2 & 3.

Super Bowl
Josh Allen - qb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
James Cook - rb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
DeVonta Smith - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Dallas Goedert - te - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 97.02
 
Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
A.J. Brown - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
DeVonta Smith - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Philadelphia Eagles - td - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00


Only one with this SB. Detroit losing makes this comp interesting.
 
Is there a way to tell how many entries have Washington in the Super Bowl? Rooting for WAS - KC

Have 6 alive in Championship round. So far so good.
BUF Allen, Cook
PHI Hurts, Barkley
KC Marquise, Kelce
 
Grid71 said:
Is there a way to tell how many entries have Washington in the Super Bowl? Rooting for WAS - KC

Have 6 alive in Championship round. So far so good.
BUF Allen, Cook
PHI Hurts, Barkley
KC Marquise, Kelce
Click to expand...

Looks like no Washington SB matchup has over 8 entries. There are zero on the top list.
Contest Turk said:
ZWK said:
Do you have the most common SB team matchups?
Click to expand...

I do!

913 BUFDET
686 BALDET
494 DETKC
234 BUFPHI
180 BALPHI
106 KCPHI
72 DET
49 BUFDETKCPHI
42 BALBUFDETKCPHI
37 BALDETKCPHI
34 BUFDETKC
32 DETKCPHI
29 BALDETKC
29 BUFMIN
24 BALBUFDETKC
22 BALBUFDET
22 BALBUFDETPHI
19 BALMIN
18 BUFDETPHI
17 BALDETPHI
10 KCLAR
9 PHI
9 DETPHI
9 BUFGB
9 KCMIN
Click to expand...
 
ZWK said:
The links from last year to see all teams with a given Super Bowl matchup still work for this year's contest, e.g. here is BAL-TB and here is BAL-only.

Checking the SB matchups I care most about, the counts are:
19 BAL-MIN
9 BAL-TB
8 BAL-LAR
6 BAL-GB
6 BAL only (including me)

If I hit on my bracket (BAL in SB, not DET or PHI in SB, TB beats WAS), the Super Bowl will be 1 of these 4 matchups, and my competition with a complete Super Bowl 6 will be the 5 other BAL-only entries plus one of these groups of between 6 and 19 entries.

Here are all the entries with just 1 SB team (excluding LAC & PIT, who I can't look up since they've already lost):
72 DET
9 PHI
6 BAL
5 BUF
4 KC
1 HOU
1 DEN
Click to expand...
Using the link formats I posted earlier for two-team and single-team Super Bowl matchups, these are the number of entries whose SB6 is still alive:

234 BUF-PHI
106 KC-PHI
9 PHI solo
5 BUF solo
4 KC solo
2 BUF-WAS
2 KC-WAS

I haven't gone through them to check scores so far and number of CC round players. Also, teams with less than 6 live SB players could still contend, especially if WAS makes it.
 
TheWinz said:
My only player this week is AJ Brown
Click to expand...
:(

I had only 2 players going this week since I lost my LAC , MIN and TB players.
And now I lost DET in the Super Bowl.

This was over before it even started for me.

Lots of fun though. We all know is job 1 is picking your full playoff bracket correctly. If you don’t get that right, the rest is moot.
 
joey said:
TheWinz said:
My only player this week is AJ Brown
Click to expand...
:(

I had only 2 players going this week since I lost my LAC , MIN and TB players.
And now I lost DET in the Super Bowl.

This was over before it even started for me.

Lots of fun though. We all know is job 1 is picking your full playoff bracket correctly. If you don’t get that right, the rest is moot.
Click to expand...
You are correct when picking the top teams especially #1 seeds making the SB. Need to hit most every round or get real lucky with your super 6.

That’s not the case when a team like Washington makes it. If that happens this year, appears only 4 teams have them in the finals paired with KC or BUF. Your odds of being relevant is lower but when the longshot hits, you don’t need to be perfect through the first few rounds.
 
Hard to say if I'm alive or not. I know I'm ahead of my unique Super Bowl 6. I leaned into the @ZWK idea that you want to predict fewer games. This gave me a productive 2nd round. Although I'm very thin in round 3 with 3 Lions and no QBs.

Championship round
Jared Goff - qb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Jahmyr Gibbs - rb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown - wr - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Isiah Pacheco - rb - KC 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
A.J. Brown - wr - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Dallas Goedert - te - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00


Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Xavier Worthy - wr - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Travis Kelce - te - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
DeVonta Smith - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 273.72
 
Super Bowl
Josh Allen - qb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
James Cook - rb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
DeVonta Smith - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Dallas Goedert - te - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00

Only entry with this SB6. Currently in 1216th with 247.30 points.
 
Quiet thread. I'm in 2924th place with 312.1 points, ahead of only 372 other entries. I do have Hurts, Barkley, Smith, and Goedert though, so maybe I move up a few spots? The highest team with 6 SB players is in 197th place, about 140 points behind the current leader, who still has Mahomes and Kelce.
 
TheWinz said:
Quiet thread. I'm in 2924th place with 312.1 points, ahead of only 372 other entries. I do have Hurts, Barkley, Smith, and Goedert though, so maybe I move up a few spots? The highest team with 6 SB players is in 197th place, about 140 points behind the current leader, who still has Mahomes and Kelce.
Click to expand...
I think when Detroit lost, it blew up ALOT of brackets, at least it did mine...lol. I have Mahomes and Kelce and am all the way back in 307th place with 630 points, with like 87 or so of those in front of me still with players in SB. Maybe I can crack top 100 if Mahomes and Kelce score TD's, but way to far back (need 160 just to catch up to first) to place.
 
IHEARTFF said:
Hard to say if I'm alive or not. I know I'm ahead of my unique Super Bowl 6. I leaned into the @ZWK idea that you want to predict fewer games. This gave me a productive 2nd round. Although I'm very thin in round 3 with 3 Lions and no QBs.

Championship round
Jared Goff - qb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Jahmyr Gibbs - rb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown - wr - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Isiah Pacheco - rb - KC 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
A.J. Brown - wr - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Dallas Goedert - te - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00


Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Xavier Worthy - wr - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Travis Kelce - te - KC 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
DeVonta Smith - wr - PHI 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 273.72
Click to expand...

About the worst experience of the Mahomes era for me, but at least I finished higher than menobrown by 2 points.

Postseason Subscriber Contest Roster

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Avoiding zeros: Just 3 teams in the entire contest took no zeros from a wrong bracket (1 of those 3 teams did have a 0, from Harrison Butker not scoring in the SB rather than from getting the bracket wrong). 1 team took 1 zero in the divisional round (so 2 weighted zeros). 3 teams including the winning team took 2 zeros in the CC round (so 6 weighted zeros), which means that the winning team was tied for 5th-7th in fewest weighted zeros from a wrong bracket. 3 teams took 9 weighted zeros (3 zeros, with 2 in the divisional round & 1 in the CC round) and 3 teams including the second place team took 8 weighted zeros (3 zeros with 1 in the divisional round & 2 in the CC round), so the second place team was tied for 11th-13th in fewest weighted zeros from a wrong bracket. The third place team was tied for 39th-53rd with 13 weighed zeros from a wrong bracket (2 in the Division round & 3 in the CC round).

The 3 teams with no zeros from a wrong bracket placed 10th, 18th, and 64th overall. The winning team was guaranteed to take at least 1 zero in the CC round because they picked both BUF & BAL players.

Nailing the SB 6: The highest possible score in the SB round was 151.02 points, which required rostering KC Worthy, PHI Hurts, PHI D, PHI Elliott, KC Mahomes, and PHI Smith. The winning team scored 123.54 points in the Super Bowl, relying entirely on Eagles. Their 6 players were all among the 8 highest scorers - they differed from the top 6 in having Barkley (7th) & Brown (8th) instead of Worthy (1st) & Mahomes (5th), and they were among the rare entries to roster PHI D (3rd) & Elliott (4th). They had Mahomes in the CC round (where he scored 30.1) rather than the SB round (where he scored 20.78), so having another PHI player instead of Mahomes in the SB was probably actually good for them. The second place team scored 130.42 in the SB round, also rostering 6 of the 8 highest scorers, with Worthy & Mahomes but no PHI D & Elliott. I don't know of an easy way to check this, but they may have been the highest scoring team in the SB round (and I doubt that many teams outscored them). The third place team had 123.42 SB round points from the most common active SB6: Worthy, Hurts, Mahomes, Barkley, Brown, Kelce (shared by 23 teams) - Kelce was the 9th highest scoring SB player.

Avoiding bad weeks: The champ picked 2 players (5 weighted players) who scored <10 points while active, 1 in the divisional round & 1 in the conference championship. The second place team picked 4 players (8 weighted players) with <10 points while active, in div & 2 CC. The third place team picked just 1 player who scored <10 points while active (5 weighted players - that was Kelce with 9.9 in the SB), which helped them catch up much of the way from all their zeros.

The 3 teams without any zeros from a wrong bracket each took 6 players (18, 19, and 22 weighted players) with <10 points. They scored 80.64, 101.24, and 61.4 in the SB round. So you can see why some teams were able to emerge from the rosters with a few zeros to beat the 3 teams that nailed the bracket.
 
ZWK said:
My team

In the Wildcard round, you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Bucky Irving - RB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Isiah Pacheco - RB - KC
Marquise Brown - WR - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Harrison Butker - PK - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Rashod Bateman - WR - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Justin Tucker - PK - BAL
Baltimore Ravens - TD - BAL


In previous years I followed my recipe and picked 8-9 games, including 2 SB teams and 1 other team in the conference championship. This year I decided to do something different and pick just 1 SB team, and just 5 games total (BAL to win WC-Div-CC, KC to win Div, TB to win WC).

By my reckoning there's about an 11% chance of this bracket hitting (every team making it to the round I've predicted them). There's about a 4% chance that this bracket will hit and the NFC SB team will be a surprise (not DET or PHI), which I am pretty much depending on in order to win (because my entry is unlikely to withstand a BAL-DET or BAL-PHI Super Bowl).

Even if an NFC underdog does make the SB, I will still have to contend against other teams that picked a BAL-only SB, and any that correctly call the exact matchup, and some BAL-DET or BAL-PHI teams (especially if they took 4 BAL players and made good choices about which ones to pick, e.g. if Flowers has a big game).

I picked an AFC team in the SB because the chances of one of the 5 surprise NFC teams making the SB is much higher than the chances of one of the 4 surprise AFC teams making the Super Bowl (more than double, according to the betting lines I've seen). For the championship game I went with another AFC team because if I'd taken an NFC team that would've excluded many of the paths for a surprise NFC team to make the Super Bowl. Many have Baltimore as the best team in the AFC, so I think a KC-BAL conference championship will be close to a coin flip, and I expect entries with KC in the SB to be much more common than entries with BAL in the SB, so I went with BAL as my Super Bowl team.

In the Divisional round I included 1 more wrinkle, picking 3 TB players and none from BUF. This is basically soft-picking a DEN over BUF upset. Assuming TB wins: if DEN wins I get an edge on most of the field (because pretty much everyone included BUF players in the divisional round or later and they'll all get zeros). In the ~1% of cases where my bracket holds, and the NFC team is a surprise, and BUF loses in the WC round, my entry is looking even better against the field. And if the big favorite BUF does win, then that's not a disaster (as long as TB wins too) - I think it's actually close to a wash, with my team having a slightly lower projection but more uniqueness (it's rare to have Josh Allen in the WC round rather than the Div). A DEN win over BUF is unlikely, but if we're counting on BAL to make the SB then it's somewhat less unlikely because it means that BAL has an easier road to the SB. If someone ran a million simulations of the playoff, they'd probably find that BUF loses to DEN in about 20% of all simulations, but in about 30% of the simulations where BAL made the Super Bowl. Of course this does mean that I'm counting on TB to beat WAS, rather than counting on BUF to beat DEN, which makes the 11% and 4% numbers I mentioned earlier slightly lower than they would've been if I'd just picked the obvious big favorite to make the Divisional round.
Click to expand...
This turned out horribly since I picked the wrong teams - I finished in the bottom 25% - but I still like the strategy of picking 1 SB team.

The winning roster was had a PHI-only SB round, which shows that this structure can compete even if there isn't an upset in the other conference. You're mainly counting on a SB blowout to pull that off, which favors including the defense on the team you picked in the SB (as the winning entry did).

We were one game away from a KC-WAS Super Bowl which would've really thinned out the competition for a KC-only SB round roster. In that case, calling KC in the SB and BUF in the CC would be enough to give you one of the best shots at winning the contest.

My last wrinkle for a divisional round team (TB rather than BUF) worked out badly, though part of the case for it was the scenarios where it goes badly are disproportionately often going to be scenarios where other parts of my bracket goes bust (BAL not making it out of the divisional round), which is what happened this year.
 
ZWK said:
Bad_Mo2 said:
Since this is a drastic change from prior years, and I can't, and don't want, to focus on multiple "here is my lineup" posts...what this the bottom line of this contest?

No cap and can take 24 players. Rules are not clear. Thanks for offering but it gives me a ******* headache.
Click to expand...
My simple recipe for a solid team is:

Step 1: Pick teams. Pick 2 teams to make the Super Bowl, 1 other team to make the conference championship, and 2-3 other teams to make the divisional round.
More details: Sprinkle in upsets so that you aren't just picking the same teams as everyone else, but not too many (e.g., one surprise SB team outside the obvious 5 contenders is probably enough upsets on its own). Check the NFL playoff bracket to make sure that it's possible for your teams to all make it to these rounds (e.g. BAL-BUF will play in the divisional round if they advance, so don't pick them both to make it to the conference championship game or beyond). Include both #1 seeds among these 5-6 teams that you pick, since we know that they'll at least make it to the divisional round.

Step 2: Pick players. Pick 6 of the top players from your 2 Super Bowl teams in the SB round (2-4 players from each). Pick 3-5 of the top players from your CC team and 1-3 from your SB teams in the CC round. Pick 6 of the top players from your divisional round teams in the divisional round. Pick 6 of the top players from other teams in the wild card round.
More details: Quarterbacks and the obvious stars are mostly the best options. When you have to dig deeper than that in the later rounds, PK or DEF are possibilities. If you went light on the upsets then maybe pick some slightly unusual players (e.g. a SB player who isn't one of the team's obvious top 4 options).
Click to expand...
Reviewing this recipe after the playoffs, I think I overemphasized picking upsets in your choice of teams. If you pick few enough games so that your bracket can remain intact while other brackets go bust, then that can be good enough. And it probably helps if you don't pick the very-most-popular SB matchups, even if you pick one of the pretty likely ones.

This year, you could pick a strong team while only picking wins from the top 5 teams (DET, PHI, KC, BUF, BAL). Just pick 2 of those teams to face each other in the Super Bowl (you have 6 options for that - pick 1 of 2 NFC teams and 1 of 3 AFC teams), then pick 1 of the other teams to make it to the CC round (you have 3 options for that - any of the 3 that aren't in the SB), then pick players from the other 2 teams in the divisional round. There are 18 possibilities for which teams to pick in setting up that bracket, and this year 1 of the 18 was correct: KC vs. PHI in the Super Bowl, BUF in the CC round.

How strong a team could you get while sticking with only the obvious top teams? If you had 18 entries, one for each of those brackets, and just picked obvious players for each entry, then 17 of those 18 entries would go bust and 1 would look something like this:

WC round
10.1 (10.1x1) Nacua, Puka LAR WR
13.7 (13.7x1) Darnold, Sam MIN QB
10.8 (10.8x1) Jefferson, Justin MIN WR
22.2 (22.2x1) Evans, Mike TBB WR
17.7 (17.7x1) Mayfield, Baker TBB QB
22.32 (22.32x1) Daniels, Jayden WAS QB
DIV round
28.8 (14.4x2) Henry, Derrick BAL RB
40.12 (20.06x2) Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
27.8 (13.9x2) Andrews, Mark BAL TE
71 (35.5x2) Gibbs, Jahmyr DET RB
43.4 (21.7x2) St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR
22.44 (11.22x2) Goff, Jared DET QB
CC round
64.14 (21.38x3) Allen, Josh BUF QB
85.2 (28.4x3) Cook, James BUF RB
31.8 (10.6x3) Shakir, Khalil BUF WR
19.5 (6.5x3) Brown, Marquise KCC WR
25.5 (8.5x3) Smith, DeVonta PHI WR
60.9 (20.3x3) Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
SB round
178.5 (35.7x5) Worthy, Xavier KCC WR
103.9 (20.78x5) Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
49.5 (9.9x5) Kelce, Travis KCC TE
140.2 (28.04x5) Hurts, Jalen PHI QB
78.5 (15.7x5) Barkley, Saquon PHI RB
66.5 (13.3x5) Brown, A.J. PHI WR

This would've scored 1234.52 points, enough to win the contest by 68.94. (I picked these players after the CC round, trying to just take the obvious players and matching my own choices for the early rounds.

The competition would've been stiffer if it had been a more popular SB matchup, or if DET had made the CC.
 
ZWK said:
ZWK said:
Bad_Mo2 said:
Since this is a drastic change from prior years, and I can't, and don't want, to focus on multiple "here is my lineup" posts...what this the bottom line of this contest?

No cap and can take 24 players. Rules are not clear. Thanks for offering but it gives me a ******* headache.
Click to expand...
My simple recipe for a solid team is:

Step 1: Pick teams. Pick 2 teams to make the Super Bowl, 1 other team to make the conference championship, and 2-3 other teams to make the divisional round.
More details: Sprinkle in upsets so that you aren't just picking the same teams as everyone else, but not too many (e.g., one surprise SB team outside the obvious 5 contenders is probably enough upsets on its own). Check the NFL playoff bracket to make sure that it's possible for your teams to all make it to these rounds (e.g. BAL-BUF will play in the divisional round if they advance, so don't pick them both to make it to the conference championship game or beyond). Include both #1 seeds among these 5-6 teams that you pick, since we know that they'll at least make it to the divisional round.

Step 2: Pick players. Pick 6 of the top players from your 2 Super Bowl teams in the SB round (2-4 players from each). Pick 3-5 of the top players from your CC team and 1-3 from your SB teams in the CC round. Pick 6 of the top players from your divisional round teams in the divisional round. Pick 6 of the top players from other teams in the wild card round.
More details: Quarterbacks and the obvious stars are mostly the best options. When you have to dig deeper than that in the later rounds, PK or DEF are possibilities. If you went light on the upsets then maybe pick some slightly unusual players (e.g. a SB player who isn't one of the team's obvious top 4 options).
Click to expand...
Reviewing this recipe after the playoffs, I think I overemphasized picking upsets in your choice of teams. If you pick few enough games so that your bracket can remain intact while other brackets go bust, then that can be good enough. And it probably helps if you don't pick the very-most-popular SB matchups, even if you pick one of the pretty likely ones.

This year, you could pick a strong team while only picking wins from the top 5 teams (DET, PHI, KC, BUF, BAL). Just pick 2 of those teams to face each other in the Super Bowl (you have 6 options for that - pick 1 of 2 NFC teams and 1 of 3 AFC teams), then pick 1 of the other teams to make it to the CC round (you have 3 options for that - any of the 3 that aren't in the SB), then pick players from the other 2 teams in the divisional round. There are 18 possibilities for which teams to pick in setting up that bracket, and this year 1 of the 18 was correct: KC vs. PHI in the Super Bowl, BUF in the CC round.

How strong a team could you get while sticking with only the obvious top teams? If you had 18 entries, one for each of those brackets, and just picked obvious players for each entry, then 17 of those 18 entries would go bust and 1 would look something like this:

WC round
10.1 (10.1x1) Nacua, Puka LAR WR
13.7 (13.7x1) Darnold, Sam MIN QB
10.8 (10.8x1) Jefferson, Justin MIN WR
22.2 (22.2x1) Evans, Mike TBB WR
17.7 (17.7x1) Mayfield, Baker TBB QB
22.32 (22.32x1) Daniels, Jayden WAS QB
DIV round
28.8 (14.4x2) Henry, Derrick BAL RB
40.12 (20.06x2) Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
27.8 (13.9x2) Andrews, Mark BAL TE
71 (35.5x2) Gibbs, Jahmyr DET RB
43.4 (21.7x2) St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR
22.44 (11.22x2) Goff, Jared DET QB
CC round
64.14 (21.38x3) Allen, Josh BUF QB
85.2 (28.4x3) Cook, James BUF RB
31.8 (10.6x3) Shakir, Khalil BUF WR
19.5 (6.5x3) Brown, Marquise KCC WR
25.5 (8.5x3) Smith, DeVonta PHI WR
60.9 (20.3x3) Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
SB round
178.5 (35.7x5) Worthy, Xavier KCC WR
103.9 (20.78x5) Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
49.5 (9.9x5) Kelce, Travis KCC TE
140.2 (28.04x5) Hurts, Jalen PHI QB
78.5 (15.7x5) Barkley, Saquon PHI RB
66.5 (13.3x5) Brown, A.J. PHI WR

This would've scored 1234.52 points, enough to win the contest by 68.94. (I picked these players after the CC round, trying to just take the obvious players and matching my own choices for the early rounds.

The competition would've been stiffer if it had been a more popular SB matchup, or if DET had made the CC.
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This is the approach I took, wrong teams. I think if you're not taking the top teams, you would be better of to replace the Buffalo players with more KC players. If you are taking top team, then picking a 3rd CC team is probably necessisary.
 
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