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Official Ameer Abdullah - The Bandwagon (1 Viewer)

cloppbeast said:
Abdullah has more power than given credit. He doesn't run straight into defenders but he still finds ways to make yards after contact. Just watch his TD run.

The lack of breakaway speed caps his ypc a little. 3.9 ypc is close to accurate behind this line. I don't see him busting off many 60 yarders; he's no Jamaal Charles. But at least he's getting the red zone carries. And if week 4 is any indication, he should be one of the most heavily utilized backs. Lots of reasons for optimism. 
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According to FBG, AA has 50% of the rezone carries this year for Detroit (8/16)

The Lions are tied for 9th ranked in redzone offense in TD scoring % this season thus far

 
FF Ninja said:
That PFF stat had him 2nd in the league at yards after contact, so I think 3.9 ypc is actually stellar behind this line. As a rookie he was at 4.2 ypc but everyone else (Bell, Riddick, etc.) was at 3.2 ypc. So his ypc has actually been pretty impressive when taken into context. 

I respectfully disagree about top end speed capping his ypc, though. Top end speed might make the difference between a 50 yard run and an 80 yard run, but realistically, it rarely ever matters. First off, 50 yard runs are very rare. Having the elusiveness to make a DB miss you at 10 yard past the LOS is something that will gain you an extra 10 yards maybe every 20 carries. But gaining that extra 30 yards on top of a 50 yard run maybe comes into play once every 100 carries. And even then, sometimes just being wide open is all you need - I think I mentioned in this thread that I once saw LenDale White score an 80 yard TD. If you catch the defense just right, any NFL player has the speed needed to house it. Top end speed is probably the most overrated part of a RB's game just due to the infrequency in which it comes into play.

I mean, I could be wrong about these gut they don't strike me as really fast guys: Bell has been at 4.9 ypc twice, Shady has been over 5 ypc three times, Alfred Morris hit 4.8 ypc with 335 carries as a rookie. Hell, at age 29 Jerome Bettis once hit 4.8 ypc. As a rookie he hit 4.9 ypc. And back to my favorite comp: Westbrook hit over 5 ypc twice in his career and has a career average of 4.6 ypc. 
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I agree top end speed matters a lot less than people think. But it also matters a lot less for portly fellows like Alfred Morris and the Bus than it would for Abdullah. 

Anyway, I'm on the boat here, so we're not really arguing. This situation for Abdullah helps for volume but not for high efficiency. Behind this line, he won't get many creases so I'd like for him to be able to really make them pay when he gets one. There's one particular 15 yard run in the 1st quarter I felt like he could have busted for a TD if he could have shifted into 4th gear, not even mentioning 5th gear. 

I'm just saying, I like Abdullah as a RB1/RB2 as is. But he could be really awesome for a little guy toting if he was fast as well as allusive and quick.

 
Here are the RBs taken around Abdullah in my draft (12 team, PPR, redraft).

In order: Joe Mixon, James White, Mark Ingram, C.J. Anderson, Abdullah, Eddie Lacy, Terrance West, Mike Gillislee, Adrian Peterson.

Right now the only guy I like more is C.J. Anderson and not by much.  Mixon, of course is intriguing but he's still getting his feet under him, has the same question marks as Abdullah about the team around him and isn't expecting a beast like Taylor Decker to return to his offensive line (hopefully sooner rather than later).

 
cloppbeast said:
I agree top end speed matters a lot less than people think. But it also matters a lot less for portly fellows like Alfred Morris and the Bus than it would for Abdullah. 

Anyway, I'm on the boat here, so we're not really arguing. This situation for Abdullah helps for volume but not for high efficiency. Behind this line, he won't get many creases so I'd like for him to be able to really make them pay when he gets one. There's one particular 15 yard run in the 1st quarter I felt like he could have busted for a TD if he could have shifted into 4th gear, not even mentioning 5th gear. 

I'm just saying, I like Abdullah as a RB1/RB2 as is. But he could be really awesome for a little guy toting if he was fast as well as allusive and quick.
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Tiki is another comp that I like. He was at 4.7 ypc for his career. But I think things will improve for Abdullah if these two things happen: (1) Decker returns (2) Stafford and the passing game starts to stretch the field.

So far, Stafford is averaging the lowest YPA of his career since he was a rookie. Their deep threat, Marvin, only has 18 targets. I think things will turn around in that department and that will open things up for Abdullah. I believe SSND mentioned that Abdullah was at or near the top of RBs who faced 8 in the box. So it's not all on the OL here. Defenses are playing the run when Abdullah is on the field. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I respectfully disagree about top end speed capping his ypc, though. Top end speed might make the difference between a 50 yard run and an 80 yard run, but realistically, it rarely ever matters. First off, 50 yard runs are very rare. Having the elusiveness to make a DB miss you at 10 yard past the LOS is something that will gain you an extra 10 yards maybe every 20 carries. But gaining that extra 30 yards on top of a 50 yard run maybe comes into play once every 100 carries. And even then, sometimes just being wide open is all you need - I think I mentioned in this thread that I once saw LenDale White score an 80 yard TD. If you catch the defense just right, any NFL player has the speed needed to house it. Top end speed is probably the most overrated part of a RB's game just due to the infrequency in which it comes into play.

I mean, I could be wrong about these gut they don't strike me as really fast guys: Bell has been at 4.9 ypc twice, Shady has been over 5 ypc three times, Alfred Morris hit 4.8 ypc with 335 carries as a rookie. Hell, at age 29 Jerome Bettis once hit 4.8 ypc. As a rookie he hit 4.9 ypc. And back to my favorite comp: Westbrook hit over 5 ypc twice in his career and has a career average of 4.6 ypc. 
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I remember Barry Sanders getting run down from behind more than once on long breakaways. Did not see anyone drop him afterwards.

 
SameSongNDance said:
And zero long speed. I don't think he's very much like Charles.

But today was very promising. Not in a million years did I think he'd total nearly 100 yards on the ground and a TD vs. MIN.
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Yeah actually I think you are right as well. He visually reminds me of Charles at times with his ability to get small and quickly bursts through holes but he certainly doesn't have Charle's top end speed in the open field.

 
Chaka said:
Here are the RBs taken around Abdullah in my draft (12 team, PPR, redraft).

In order: Joe Mixon, James White, Mark Ingram, C.J. Anderson, Abdullah, Eddie Lacy, Terrance West, Mike Gillislee, Adrian Peterson.

Right now the only guy I like more is C.J. Anderson and not by much.  Mixon, of course is intriguing but he's still getting his feet under him, has the same question marks as Abdullah about the team around him and isn't expecting a beast like Taylor Decker to return to his offensive line (hopefully sooner rather than later).
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My draft in this order:

Hyde
Lynch
Mixon
Abdullah
CJ Anderson
A. Peterson
Coleman
Ingram
Gilislee
Powell
Derrick Henry
Doug Martin
Paul Perkins
Terrance West

Out of those, the only RB I like is Henry... but he's not even a lead dog yet. I was targeting Abdullah here and was happy I got him. CJ has a decent time share to deal with. I couldn't be more pleased with my pick there. 

I was very much hoping to go Mixon/AA in the turn there. I was bummed to see Mixon gone, but now not so much (redraft)

 
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I don't want to get too hyped just yet because the FF gods are cruel and anything can happen, but he's shaping up to have a good season. In hindsight, the Lions didn't make any real effort to sign/draft a RB even though Abdullah was out almost all of last season. To me it shows that they know he's a good back and they felt good about him as their lead guy even with the long layoff. He had a pretty good rookie season, but it wasn't a useful season in FF. Then he got hurt last year. I think that's why people take a negative tone with him. Players who have burned people in FF in the past tend to get a lot of hate.

 
EBF said:
I don't want to get too hyped just yet because the FF gods are cruel and anything can happen, but he's shaping up to have a good season. In hindsight, the Lions didn't make any real effort to sign/draft a RB even though Abdullah was out almost all of last season. To me it shows that they know he's a good back and they felt good about him as their lead guy even with the long layoff. He had a pretty good rookie season, but it wasn't a useful season in FF. Then he got hurt last year. I think that's why people take a negative tone with him. Players who have burned people in FF in the past tend to get a lot of hate.
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I still don't forgive Fred Taylor from close to 20 years ago...

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m not being unreasonable or hating on the guy. I took it to the “buy low/sell high” topic though. Apologies for peeing in the Cheerios. 
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No it is a topic about Ameer Abdullah and how the most efficient tackling defense of 2017 could not get him down. 

Is that sustainable? I think so as long as Ameer can stay healthy.

There is a thread for the buy/sell topic. This one isn't it.

 
Biabreakable said:
No it is a topic about Ameer Abdullah and how the most efficient tackling defense of 2017 could not get him down. 

Is that sustainable? I think so as long as Ameer can stay healthy.

There is a thread for the buy/sell topic. This one isn't it.
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I just said I took it to the buy/sell topic.

but gimme a break - saying a guy is a sell high on the guy’s topic isn’t like having a knitting discussion on a scuba forum. :rolleyes:  

 
Ameer was limited (ankle) today. Speculation he’ll see a lighter load this week; I’ll believe it when I see it. Coming into this season, his career (18 G) highs were 16 carries and 18 touches. Through four games, he’s averaging 16.5 ATT & 19.25 touches. He is their identity offensively. Stick with it, take care of the ball (2 turnovers), trust the defense and special teams will do their part.

Both the right side OL starters (by far their most productive side running the ball) missed practice. Center & LG are in the injury report as well. Mr Turnstile (LT) is healthy. All 3 starting LBs hurting as well (Worrilow will miss the game. That’s the NFL; Carolina has 14 on the injury report.

Should be a good game Sunday. Panthers offense was clicking v. the Patriots, racked up 140 yards [rushing]. Funchess is starting to breakout, CMC could have a big day if he draws Reeves-Maybin in coverage. Cam is the first mobile QB the Lions have faced.

 
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Getting a lot of conflicting info the last page or so. I can get him for a 2018 1st in my dynasty league and injuries have killed my running backs. Am I buying high? or is that a good price?

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I just said I took it to the buy/sell topic.

but gimme a break - saying a guy is a sell high on the guy’s topic isn’t like having a knitting discussion on a scuba forum. :rolleyes:  
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We have a SCUBA forum? SO COOL!   :excited:

Seriously, I am in the HOLD pattern for now. This is what I expected from him when I drafted him in '15. 

Not necessarily a stud, but a good producer none the less. I think this bodes well.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Beat writer speculation?
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Nope, Rotowire editorial comment reporting on a beat writer’s (Tim Twentyman) story he was linited today. The 4-5 guys I follow at the Detroit Free Press, Lions.com, Oakland Tribune & MLive all say the ankle is fine. He was actually cleared to go back in the Vikings game but they opted to let him rest.

Carry on.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Hard to take this serious when it says and I quote " Abdullah was a highly-regarded running back out of Nebraska in 2016 whose biggest red flag was his injury-prone history." Except he never missed a game in college, and his biggest red flag was fumbling in college.
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Posted more for the cut ups. 

Luke is often wrong.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Getting a lot of conflicting info the last page or so. I can get him for a 2018 1st in my dynasty league and injuries have killed my running backs. Am I buying high? or is that a good price?
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With the overall quality of the upcoming class, especially the RB class, absolutely no way I give a 2018 1st for Abdullah.

Not even close, IMO.

 
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Weebs210 said:
Have to decide between Lynch and Abdullah for my flex... Leaning lynch based on match up.
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Mistake. Let me add some reasoning.  Carr is out.  Cooper is awful and hurt.  Crabs is hurt.  TE Cook cannot catch.  You don't think the D is going to focus on the Raider's struggling run game? 

 
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DocHolliday said:
Mistake. Let me add some reasoning.  Carr is out.  Cooper is awful and hurt.  Crabs is hurt.  TE Cook cannot catch.  You don't think the D is going to focus on the Raider's struggling run game? 
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They have been getting gashed on the ground and last I checked they are missing their starting DT still. I just have a feeling Lynch finds end zone this week.

 
Weebs210 said:
They have been getting gashed on the ground and last I checked they are missing their starting DT still. I just have a feeling Lynch finds end zone this week.
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As a Raider fan, I certainly hope that are right.  If the Oline gets back to playing like last year, the Oakland running game can take off.  Lynch is not the reason for the Raider running game issues.  The lack of passing threat is not going to help though and that is what I was trying to point out in my previous post. 

 
msudaisy26 said:
Getting a lot of conflicting info the last page or so. I can get him for a 2018 1st in my dynasty league and injuries have killed my running backs. Am I buying high? or is that a good price?
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Depends on (1) need and (2) expected finish. If you think Abdullah will propel you to a top 2 finish, then it makes sense. You're probably not getting an Abdullah-level talent at 1.11. 

Also, people forget that draft picks are a bit of a crapshoot. Abdullah is a known commodity and will almost certainly be in the NFL for at least 5 more years. Sometimes you end up with a Sankey, Trent Richardson, Ebron, or a tease like Sammy Watkins. So I'm inclined to trade for known talents, especially when it fills a need. A bird in the hand is worth to in the bush.

I'd say the odds of getting a player better than Abdullah - assuming Abdullah is a high end RB2 for 5 years (age 28 season) - with a 1.07+ draft pick is less than 50%. And most of them will take a year or two to develop or expand their role (Kamara currently getting 1/3rd of snaps, Perine behind Rob Kelley). So if you take net present value into account then it also favors a trade. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Depends on (1) need and (2) expected finish. If you think Abdullah will propel you to a top 2 finish, then it makes sense. You're probably not getting an Abdullah-level talent at 1.11. 

Also, people forget that draft picks are a bit of a crapshoot. Abdullah is a known commodity and will almost certainly be in the NFL for at least 5 more years. Sometimes you end up with a Sankey, Trent Richardson, Ebron, or a tease like Sammy Watkins. So I'm inclined to trade for known talents, especially when it fills a need. A bird in the hand is worth to in the bush.

I'd say the odds of getting a player better than Abdullah - assuming Abdullah is a high end RB2 for 5 years (age 28 season) - with a 1.07+ draft pick is less than 50%. And most of them will take a year or two to develop or expand their role (Kamara currently getting 1/3rd of snaps, Perine behind Rob Kelley). So if you take net present value into account then it also favors a trade. 
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I agree. I dealt my 1st & Fleener for Abdullah & Riddick yesterday. Needed a replacement for Cook and didn't want to sell him injured. My team is undefeated and has a clear margin as point leader at the moment. Obviously there's a lot of football to still be played, but I think its very likely that the pick is in the 10~12 range. I also have an extra second from a tied for last place team at the moment and RB depth to deal when Cook comes back next year.

Other offers I received after Cook went down: I give kelvin Benjamin, get Gio. I give Will Fuller, I get Lynch. Passed on both rather easily.

 
Buckna said:
I agree. I dealt my 1st & Fleener for Abdullah & Riddick yesterday. Needed a replacement for Cook and didn't want to sell him injured. My team is undefeated and has a clear margin as point leader at the moment. Obviously there's a lot of football to still be played, but I think its very likely that the pick is in the 10~12 range. I also have an extra second from a tied for last place team at the moment and RB depth to deal when Cook comes back next year.

Other offers I received after Cook went down: I give kelvin Benjamin, get Gio. I give Will Fuller, I get Lynch. Passed on both rather easily.
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Well, as someone who doesn't like Fuller I'd have taken that Lynch deal, but getting a young, talented RB for a late 1st (with a semi-handcuff) is a smart trade. You were fortunate to find a seller where you didn't have to overpay to fill Cook's spot.

 
FF Ninja said:
Well, as someone who doesn't like Fuller I'd have taken that Lynch deal, but getting a young, talented RB for a late 1st (with a semi-handcuff) is a smart trade. You were fortunate to find a seller where you didn't have to overpay to fill Cook's spot.
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Lynch is in a 3 headed monster and now Carr is injured so I want no part of him IMO. And I know we don't see eye to eye on Fuller from our talks in the Houston thread. But yes, tough to make a trade from a position of weakness and not get bent over.

As a new Abdullah owner looking forward to seeing what he can do even against a tough Car defense (also took him in redraft but haven't started him.)

 
FF Ninja said:
Depends on (1) need and (2) expected finish. If you think Abdullah will propel you to a top 2 finish, then it makes sense. You're probably not getting an Abdullah-level talent at 1.11. 

Also, people forget that draft picks are a bit of a crapshoot. Abdullah is a known commodity and will almost certainly be in the NFL for at least 5 more years. Sometimes you end up with a Sankey, Trent Richardson, Ebron, or a tease like Sammy Watkins. So I'm inclined to trade for known talents, especially when it fills a need. A bird in the hand is worth to in the bush.

I'd say the odds of getting a player better than Abdullah - assuming Abdullah is a high end RB2 for 5 years (age 28 season) - with a 1.07+ draft pick is less than 50%. And most of them will take a year or two to develop or expand their role (Kamara currently getting 1/3rd of snaps, Perine behind Rob Kelley). So if you take net present value into account then it also favors a trade. 
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Yea, I would give a mid-late 1st for him. This is shaping up to be a pretty good RB draft, but even so there are only 3-4 RBs who I think are definitely better prospects than AA was. I'd take Barkley, Chubb, or Guice over him. You can make a case for some other guys, but it's not as clear cut. This WR class looks pretty weak to me. Sutton and Washington might be first rounders. Maybe somebody else sneaks in, but it doesn't look like a stacked group.

So that's probably 5-6 prospects who might clearly be better, but I also think that AA has upside beyond what we've seen so far. Some people are saying sell high, but he's actually a good back. While he's a slightly different style, he has some similarities with LeSean McCoy in terms of skill set and how he can be used. Their rookie years were almost identical and then Ameer got hurt in year 2 before he could really show his skills. He is back now and starting to get into a groove. He may just be getting started from a production standpoint.

Overall, the risk/reward is definitely worth a 1.06-1.08 type of rookie pick for me in a PPR. I wouldn't give a top 3 pick for him, but as you said rookies are volatile commodities in their own right. Even the ones who look like stone cold locks often find ways to bust (i.e. Richardson, Blackmon, K White).

 
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I'd take any 2018 1st for Abdullah, including one that was projected to be late. I'd jump all over it if I owned Abdullah.

Then again, I don't think he's got the ability to be a longterm feature back. I believe he could very well get drafted over in next year's class. In fact, I think it's likely.

Abdullah seems to be one of those guys who people have polarizing opinions on. As for myself, I've never been high on him & took a lot of crap for saying so when he came out, LOL, but I stand by my initial evaluation. I don't think Abdullah sucks. I just don't believe he's longterm feature back material. In short, Abdullah doesn't have the specific traits to overcome his lack of size & strength, IMO.

 
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Football Jones said:
I'd take any 2018 1st for Abdullah, including one that was projected to be late. I'd jump all over it if I owned Abdullah.

Then again, I don't think he's got the ability to be a longterm feature back. I believe he could very well get drafted over in next year's class. In fact, I think it's likely.

Abdullah seems to be one of those guys who people have polarizing opinions on. As for myself, I've never been high on him & took a lot of crap for saying so when he came out, but I stand by my initial prediction. I don't think Abdullah sucks. I just don't believe he's longterm feature back material. In short, Abdullah doesn't have the specific traits to overcome his lack of size & strength, IMO.
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Fair enough, but I don't agree with much of that. He was a 2nd round pick and is still starting in his third NFL season.

How many RBs in this draft will go before pick 54 (where he went in 2015)? Probably only 4-6.

To say he's not worth any first seems extremely negative to me, but we're all allowed to have opinions on players. I would say that opinion is more on the negative end of the spectrum though. I wouldn't say he's worth a top 3 pick, but something between those two extremes seems fair based on the objective information.

 
EBF said:
Fair enough, but I don't agree with much of that. He was a 2nd round pick and is still starting in his third NFL season.

How many RBs in this draft will go before pick 54 (where he went in 2015)? Probably only 4-6.

To say he's not worth any first seems extremely negative to me, but we're all allowed to have opinions on players. I would say that opinion is more on the negative end of the spectrum though. I wouldn't say he's worth a top 3 pick, but something between those two extremes seems fair based on the objective information.
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I get it. I mean, differing opinions is what FF is all about. :)

 
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EBF said:
Yea, I would give a mid-late 1st for him. This is shaping up to be a pretty good RB draft, but even so there are only 3-4 RBs who I think are definitely better prospects than AA was. I'd take Barkley, Chubb, or Guice over him. You can make a case for some other guys, but it's not as clear cut. This WR class looks pretty weak to me. Sutton and Washington might be first rounders. Maybe somebody else sneaks in, but it doesn't look like a stacked group.

So that's probably 5-6 prospects who might clearly be better, but I also think that AA has upside beyond what we've seen so far. Some people are saying sell high, but he's actually a good back. While he's a slightly different style, he has some similarities with LeSean McCoy in terms of skill set and how he can be used. Their rookie years were almost identical and then Ameer got hurt in year 2 before he could really show his skills. He is back now and starting to get into a groove. He may just be getting started from a production standpoint.

Overall, the risk/reward is definitely worth a 1.06-1.08 type of rookie pick for me in a PPR. I wouldn't give a top 3 pick for him, but as you said rookies are volatile commodities in their own right. Even the ones who look like stone cold locks often find ways to bust (i.e. Richardson, Blackmon, K White).
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I agree with this aside from personally not being sure about the quality of WR talent that will declare for the 2018 draft.

Ameer is good and if he puts up a few more strong performances people might not be able to get him for a 1st round pick next year.

 
Football Jones said:
In short, Abdullah doesn't have the specific traits to overcome his lack of size & strength, IMO.
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Just curious, what traits are you looking for? He's got:

  • Ability to make people miss
  • Extremely high yards after contact
  • Very good pass catching skills
  • A ridiculous SPARQ score
  • A current feature back job

 
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