*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (4 Viewers)

[T J]

Hi TJ - the economic studies do not agree with your opinion that the risk is worth the reward. 

I would love to read the specifics around your opinion that “the risk is worth the reward”.  Do you have detail?

Read better. I said there are plenty of people out there that feel the risk is worth the reward. The point was to remind Shader that there are plenty feel differently than he does. Where in there did you get anything about my personal opinion? 
 

And you use the term “economic studies don’t agree” as if that means something. Have you seen the unemployment? The small businesses? There are absolutely studies that do agree. But regardless, that wasn’t the point. The point was to Shader to not talk down to others. 

 

[Rirruto]

I bought a car from a private party, and the Department of Motor Vehicles closed their doors the day before I could register it.  I called and they said it's not something I can do online.  I would have to mail in the title, bill of sale, proof of insurance, and a few other documents.  I asked if I could mail in xerox copies and they said no.  No way am I gonna mail originals and have them get lost.  I am driving on the previous owners plates, but I am sure he went online and canceled them within a day of the sale.  I did insure the car in my name, but if my wife gets pulled over, I hope the officer understands.

The police are like snakes right now. They're more scared of you than you are of them. This is obviously not true nationwide, but where I live, the police are essentially banned (through departmental policy, not any kind of law/rule) from initiating traffic stops like that. I'd bet that's true in almost all departments around the country. I've been driving at least 20 over the speed limit for the past week.

 

[Mister CIA]

With the lack of mainstream sports, I bring you Game of Bones

Dog's Breakfast Grand Final

Both are fantastic.

 

[Man In The Box]

Funny you mentioned this. I was just going to ask if people are using thermometers on the regular.

We check daily. I am 97.1 degrees like clockwork. 11 of the last 12 times. Wife and kids are different almost every time. 

Wondering how common that is just out of curiosity. 

I check my temperature 3 times a day. Before work, at lunchtime, and before bed. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Hi TJ - the economic studies do not agree with your opinion that the risk is worth the reward. 

I would love to read the specifics around your opinion that “the risk is worth the reward”.  Do you have detail?

You have mentioned these studies a couple times now, if you have linked them, i apologize, but could you direct to them? If you have already linked, i will search and find. 

 

[ProstheticRGK]

Dog's Breakfast Grand Final

 Thanks for these, GB. Just awesome.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

We insanely are checking ourselves twice a day. Breakfast and before bed. 
 

we bought two before this started in case one broke. $110 total  

How’s the Spruce Moose coming along?

 

[BassNBrew]

You’re not wrong but She’s 75 and just had her birthday vacation we planned for her cancelled. She hasn’t seen her grandson in a month, so that’s why we were thinking to do it. We did tell her we would let her know in the morning and if my wife and I just don’t feel comfortable we won’t. 

This is going to be with us until there's a vaccine.  IMO, You'll be doing this cautious visit in 9 months, might as well start now unless you're prepared to wait 18 months.

 

[JAA]

Read better. I said there are plenty of people out there that feel the risk is worth the reward. The point was to remind Shader that there are plenty feel differently than he does. Where in there did you get anything about my personal opinion? 
 

And you use the term “economic studies don’t agree” as if that means something. Have you seen the unemployment? The small businesses? There are absolutely studies that do agree. But regardless, that wasn’t the point. The point was to Shader to not talk down to others. 

Thanks TJ. I apologize as I read your post as your opinion, my bad. 

Can you post those studies you are referring to?  Thanks 

 

[Capella]

How’s the Spruce Moose coming along?

Get these Kleenex boxes off my feet!

 

[JAA]

You have mentioned these studies a couple times now, if you have linked them, i apologize, but could you direct to them? If you have already linked, i will search and find. 

Sure thing:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession

 

[Capella]

This is going to be with us until there's a vaccine.  IMO, You'll be doing this cautious visit in 9 months, might as well start now unless you're prepared to wait 18 months.

Also true 

 

[BassNBrew]

The police are like snakes right now. They're more scared of you than you are of them. This is obviously not true nationwide, but where I live, the police are essentially banned (through departmental policy, not any kind of law/rule) from initiating traffic stops like that. I'd bet that's true in almost all departments around the country. I've been driving at least 20 over the speed limit for the past week.

Still seeing the state boys on the highway, but the local guys pounding out the stop sign violations are mia.  Might be because the donut shop closed and doesn't have a drive thru.

 

[huthut]

Will there be an antibody test that also shows you are past being contagious?

I would assume a positive antibody test and a negative shed viral RNA test would be considered past contagious. Alternatively they could just do a positive antibody test and "wait 2 weeks to be safe" or whatever number is convincingly safe.

I feel like the only way we can start getting over this is massively ramping up antibody detection so people who have a positive test can start going about their day. However, that only matters if there is a meaningful amount of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people. If 95% of the population is antibody negative, there is not much we can do besides wait for effective treatment or a vaccine. I know there are lots of people saying stuff like "Well, I got a sick last December, so I probably already had it so the quarantine does not apply to me". Yea, right. Antibody testing would give people the correct amount of confidence, because it is both a waste to have someone actually immune locked in their house all day, while we also have people who think they are immune and they are definitely not. 

 

[Clown Car]

I would assume a positive antibody test and a negative shed viral RNA test would be considered past contagious. Alternatively they could just do a positive antibody test and "wait 2 weeks to be safe" or whatever number is convincingly safe.

I feel like the only way we can start getting over this is massively ramping up antibody detection so people who have a positive test can start going about their day. However, that only matters if there is a meaningful amount of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people. If 95% of the population is antibody negative, there is not much we can do besides wait for effective treatment or a vaccine. I know there are lots of people saying stuff like "Well, I got a sick last December, so I probably already had it so the quarantine does not apply to me". Yea, right. Antibody testing would give people the correct amount of confidence, because it is both a waste to have someone actually immune locked in their house all day, while we also have people who think they are immune and they are definitely not. 

I hope they hurry this up because I don’t know how many more people I can read say they had it in December. No, karen, you live in bfe rural north Florida. If you had it in December nyc would have blown up in October. They flat out swear they already had it. 

 

[caustic]

Apropos of nothing, here's what people who study the economy for a living say about the "risks being worth the reward." 

IGM Economics Experts Panel - Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A: A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large 
contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.

Strongly Agree 52%
Agree 36%
Uncertain 5%
Disagree 0%
Strongly Disagree 0%

***Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections 
remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate 
the resurgence risk.***

Strongly Agree 41%
Agree 39%
Uncertain 14%
Disagree 0%
Strongly Disagree 0%

Question C: Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding
treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, 
making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a 
successful vaccine.

Strongly Agree 66%
Agree 27%
Uncertain 0%
Disagree 0%
Strogly Disagree 0%

 

[DropKick]

I’m responding pretty much exclusively to your posts in here because you for real seem to act like you’re smarter than everyone else and it’s annoying. We all watch the news too and have read plenty and are perfectly capable of forming our own opinions.

What exactly is your agenda with all the negativity? There are plenty of people out there that feel like the risk is worth the reward to get back at things. Give it a rest and don’t feel like you constantly need to tell people why YOU THINK they’re wrong and say it as if it’s fact and not your opinion, which it is. 

There are a couple other guys who talk down to people that don’t share the doomsday takes you do, but yours are just constant. Give it a rest.

Are you sure you're not shooting the messenger?  Maybe the reward isn't worth the risk?   We are in uncharted waters.  I share the concern that, collectively, people want the positive spin to be true and this leads to behaviors resulting in higher rates of infection.  The U.S. already accounts for 30% of cases worldwide?  New York itself has 10%?   It is scary.  These are scary times.

 

[BigJim®]

Isn’t the reality that we need some ongoing volume of spread that balances hospital capacity and increasing immunity? Feels like a vaccine within 4-6 months is a pipe dream, and society/economy can’t tolerate even that. 95% successful pseudo quarantines, at best, only accomplished kicking the can on an inevitable scary spike.

I’m managing my own environment and not getting bent out of shape as the carefree among us run through the croc infested stream. I just hope they have enough introspection to limit collateral damage to at-risk workers and elderly.

FWIW this thread made me hit up a DQ drive thru and made it home alive with a box of buster bars. Wiped down the box like I do groceries. Only wish I’d thought about the exact cash payment someone recommended. Next time.

 

[huthut]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

 

[pricklypete]

Few things learned during quarantine.:

I'll continue to buy expensive liquor 

I'll continue to buy cheap beer

I'll never buy name brand cereal again.  

Bring on the bag of Tootie Fruities!!! 

(Or whatevertf they are called)

 

[skol asylum]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

I wonder if you get your results back.

 

[bucksoh]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

Sent email.

 

[T J]

Are you sure you're not shooting the messenger?  Maybe the reward isn't worth the risk?   We are in uncharted waters.  I share the concern that, collectively, people want the positive spin to be true and this leads to behaviors resulting in higher rates of infection.  The U.S. already accounts for 30% of cases worldwide?  New York itself has 10%?   It is scary.  These are scary times.

Again, that wasn’t the point of my post. 

 

[Tecumseh]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

I emailed them to sign up. I assume I've been exposed at my hospital, but have had no symptoms.

 

[TheWinz]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

By how you phrased it, I thought this thread was gonna be referenced.  

I think I will sign up too.

 

[msommer]

Yeah, I saw that.  That's a 40% jump for them.  South America in general is showing about a 10% increase in new cases, per covid worldometers.  Not good to see that growth in SA.  Worldwide, just a pretty bad day - new cases approaching 95,000 (we've only had a couple of days reporting 80K or more), and closing on another 7,000 deaths. Russia still seeing high numbers; India another 10% growth in new cases.  

The U.S. seems to be getting antsy to reopen (with optimism by the administration for May 1st).  But like the soldiers in The Last Samurai, (we)'re not ready.  

South American countries in general have been piss poor at testing, so have India, and Russia supposedly just slapping on a million tests, yeah, that seems a mite weird

 

[msommer]

Zombies will take cash

Actually they won't but by then it's too late  

 

[TheWinz]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

After reading the entire article, I decided not to sign up, because I have had no symptoms at all.  I think they are looking for folks who either recovered at home or at least had some symptoms.  I haven't had the slightest cough, fever, loss of smell, nothing.  I've also had almost no human contact in 3 weeks.  If I do have it, or had it earlier, it's gotta be the weakest case in the world.

 

[skol asylum]

Estimated completion date for clinical study....March 2022.

Might want to pick up the pace a bit guys.

 

[AAABatteries]

My 8yo just said the same thing. She misses her friends and she said “I’m starting to forget their faces”. She started to tear up and I did too. 

I really hate to hear these stories.  Is there any chance they can do FaceTime or Zoom with them?  My daughter FaceTimes with her cousin/best friend daily and does Zoom gymnastics classes with her cheer team.

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession

"We now forecast U.S. real GDP growth of negative 2.9% in 2020 (after deducting a COVID-19 impact of 5%). For global GDP, we expect a decline of 1.4%, implying a recession on par with 2008-09. Our U.S. forecast is based on our detailed scenarios as we project the industry-level impact of mitigation strategies. We think the scope of shutdown orders to disrupt the U.S. economy is probably overrated, as large swaths of the U.S. economy are exempt from the orders. Meanwhile, historically large fiscal stimulus should prevent a collapse in the demand side of the economy."

Some heroic assumptions here. I have not seen anyone anywhere suggesting such a miminal impact to the economy. 

 

[Clown Car]

Looks like the NIH is reading this thread and is seeking people without known COVID-19 for antibody testing if any of you want to sign up.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

I bet none of my idiot friends who say they had this in December will do this. But I will encourage them!!

 

[The Commish]

UPDATE:  Mrs. Commish is feeling significantly better.  Not coughing hardly at all any more and the fever went away on Thursday.  She still has a little tightness/burning sensation (at times) in her chest, but not close to what it was.  On Thursday it was like a flip of the switch for her.  We STILL haven't gotten the results yet and there is NO ONE to call for an update.  We still keep her relatively quarantined from the rest of us, but we've loosened it slightly.  The one thing I haven't heard of those experiencing symptoms is them going away quickly which leads me even further down the path of her having something else.  Hoping we are passed the worst of it.  Uncertainty has been the worst part of it, but its getting better.

Watching her this week and listening to talk of them "opening things back up" because the "solution can't be worse than the problem" has been maddening.  In my estimation, if they open things back up any time in the next 4-6 weeks, wave two and three (we WILL have them) will be worse than what we're going through now.  I can't believe that's even a consideration right now.

 

[Chickenwang]

UPDATE:  Mrs. Commish is feeling significantly better.  Not coughing hardly at all any more and the fever went away on Thursday.  She still has a little tightness/burning sensation (at times) in her chest, but not close to what it was.  On Thursday it was like a flip of the switch for her.  We STILL haven't gotten the results yet and there is NO ONE to call for an update.  We still keep her relatively quarantined from the rest of us, but we've loosened it slightly.  The one thing I haven't heard of those experiencing symptoms is them going away quickly which leads me even further down the path of her having something else.  Hoping we are passed the worst of it.  Uncertainty has been the worst part of it, but its getting better.

Watching her this week and listening to talk of them "opening things back up" because the "solution can't be worse than the problem" has been maddening.  In my estimation, if they open things back up any time in the next 4-6 weeks, wave two and three (we WILL have them) will be worse than what we're going through now.  I can't believe that's even a consideration right now.

I can't believe your consideration is to keep everything closed up ?   Makes no sense at all 

Your wife had what everyone in this world experiences....a cold, a fever, a flu, a sickness.   Why don't we just close all the doors for the rest of our lives?   Im afraid of what your response would be 

 

[Navin Johnson]

Some heroic assumptions here. I have not seen anyone anywhere suggesting such a miminal impact to the economy. 

Go on.

 

[The Commish]

I can't believe your consideration is to keep everything closed up ?   Makes no sense at all 

I am unaware of a part of the country where everything is closed down.  We can't go to restaurants, but we can get takeout.  Hell, I can still go play golf if I want to.  I've never seen so many people on our golf course (even during season) as I have the last couple of weeks.  Here in Florida hospitality has been hit.  Hotels have closed.  That's our largest impact.  On a personal level, the kids' activities (baseball and cheer) have been cancelled.  As I said before, opening things back up right now, or even the next few weeks means we open things with no ability to track the virus.  We still can't get testing down and results back in a reasonable time and our testing is woefully behind both in the number of people being tested and the number of tests being processed.  On top of that, there is no vaccine.  It's not that I want things to be "closed up", but we have to be on top of it before we "open" things back up otherwise, what we are seeing numbers wise today will be a drop in the bucket.

I can't think of a good reason to stop doing what is working, but there might be something I am missing.

 

[AAABatteries]

I think I mentioned in the thread somewhere that during all this we moved to a new house.  One day this week our trash men picked up our neighbors trash and some toy they had put in exploded and got these jelly balls all over the place - must have been a couple hundred of these things spread over the road, the gutters and sidewalk -   I didn’t see it happen but the wife at the house who put it out did - poor lady is trying to clean this mess up when I walk outside.  So, being a nice guy, new neighbor and bored out of my mind I grab a broom and clean up one side of the street.  Started playing street hockey with these things and just having fun.  Anyway, 30 minutes later we get it all cleaned up and go about our day.

I’m laying in bed last night and our ring goes off - check the camera and it’s the lady and her daughter leaving something on the front porch.  Just went out and got it and it was a 12-pack of TP with a handwritten note welcoming us to the neighborhood and a thank you for helping clean up the mess.      Greatest housewarming gift ever!!!!

 

[parasaurolophus]

"We now forecast U.S. real GDP growth of negative 2.9% in 2020 (after deducting a COVID-19 impact of 5%). For global GDP, we expect a decline of 1.4%, implying a recession on par with 2008-09. Our U.S. forecast is based on our detailed scenarios as we project the industry-level impact of mitigation strategies. We think the scope of shutdown orders to disrupt the U.S. economy is probably overrated, as large swaths of the U.S. economy are exempt from the orders. Meanwhile, historically large fiscal stimulus should prevent a collapse in the demand side of the economy."

Some heroic assumptions here. I have not seen anyone anywhere suggesting such a miminal impact to the economy. 

I know of an internal forecast from a very large financial company that has predicted similar numbers.

The thinking is that this wasnt due to a stressed system or holes in the dam breaking. It was an outside stressor. 

The problem with forecasts and predictions like that is they are large scale and mean nothing to the guy that loses his business or his job. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

I know of an internal forecast from a very large financial company that has predicted similar numbers.

The thinking is that this wasnt due to a stressed system or holes in the dam breaking. It was an outside stressor. 

The problem with forecasts and predictions like that is they are large scale and mean nothing to the guy that loses his business or his job. 

Kinda like the low CFR means nothing to the family who loses their loved one, often with limited or no contact before they die?

Except the economic losses aren’t necessarily permanent.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Europe has 7 countries in the top 10 most affected globally by the coronavirus, yet a handful of nations there are reopening. Here's how...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

 

[gianmarco]

ER doctor has custody temporarily taken away due to coronavirus

:(

 

[beer 30]

ER doctor has custody temporarily taken away due to coronavirus

:(

These people are going to be a wreck after this is all over. Hats off to all of them, including you Gian!

 

[parasaurolophus]

Kinda like the low CFR means nothing to the family who loses their loved one, often with limited or no contact before they die?

Except the economic losses aren’t necessarily permanent.

The difference is that people can still choose to stay home if they want. Order groceries to be delivered, etc. 

They could choose to not go back to work, you know, considering economic losses arent permanent and all. 

 

[beer 30]

Brothers trying to get their swerve on in the middle of all this 

The real article

The tabloid w/deets

 

[DaVinci]

ER doctor has custody temporarily taken away due to coronavirus

:(

Story doesn’t say whether the father is truly worried about his daughter’s safety or if he’s just taking the opportunity to be a jerk. 

 

[Man In The Box]

NYC public schools officially closed for the remainder of the school year per Mayor De Blasio. 

 

[irish eyes]

I’m responding pretty much exclusively to your posts in here because you for real seem to act like you’re smarter than everyone else and it’s annoying. We all watch the news too and have read plenty and are perfectly capable of forming our own opinions. 
 

What exactly is your agenda with all the negativity? There are plenty of people out there that feel like the risk is worth the reward to get back at things. Give it a rest and don’t feel like you constantly need to tell people why YOU THINK they’re wrong and say it as if it’s fact and not your opinion, which it is. 

There are a couple other guys who talk down to people that don’t share the doomsday takes you do, but yours are just constant. Give it a rest. 
 

There are so many "internet" doctors and scientists in this thread it's laughable. The certainty of some people's claims in here is also laughable.  Then you have the ones who say "I know someone who knows someone who said"...blah blah blah. Some act as if they want to see this go on forever, just weird.

 

[JbizzleMan]

My local Nextdoor is a train wreck. People complaining that the lockdown was extended here until May 15th. A few people saying “it’s not that bad here.” Well, maybe because the lock down is working!!!!

 

[shader]

There are so many "internet" doctors and scientists in this thread it's laughable. The certainty of some people's claims in here is also laughable.  Then you have the ones who say "I know someone who knows someone who said"...blah blah blah. Some act as if they want to see this go on forever, just weird.

This is a pretty great thread, actually.  Sorry you haven’t enjoyed it.

 

[FBG26]

Europe has 7 countries in the top 10 most affected globally by the coronavirus, yet a handful of nations there are reopening. Here's how...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

This is a good article that highlights why and how some of these countries will slowly begin to open up. Couple of interesting passages from the article:

According to Drobac, the countries preparing to ease restrictions had something in common: they were among the first in Europe to implement lockdowns or severe social distancing measures and had rapidly scaled up coronavirus testing.

Other countries looking to follow in their path need to meet three general criteria, he added, especially if they are to avoid a second wave.

Firstly, they need to have "bent the curve" and seen a consistent reduction in the number of new cases, he said. Secondly, their health care systems need to be able to cope without resorting to crisis measures such as emergency hospitals.

Thirdly, they need a system in place for mass testing, contact tracing and isolation, so that sick people can be isolated early before they infect others, he said, "which is public health 101 and what I wish we were all doing from the beginning."

Regarding Denmark:

But life there will still look far from normal.

Many restrictions will remain in place and their roll-back may be phased, the government said. A ban on gatherings of more than 10 people has been extended until May 10 and all church services, cinemas and shopping centers will also remain closed.

All festivals and large gatherings will still be banned until August, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. Denmark's borders will remain shut.