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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

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Klimtology said:
Anyone have any luck getting Gloves, Masks, and/or Hand Sanitizer Online?

TIA
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North Texas town of 100,000 with a market area of 150,000 gloves are readily available. I haven't seen hand sanitizer in weeks until today. One pharmacy had 2oz bottles for $3.99 that they compounded themselves. Another store had 12oz bottles for $14.99 that was from Canada and was not obtainable through their regular wholesalers. They had paid $8 a bottle. Masks I still haven't seen since the run on supplies.

 
And now on to the shopping/distancing anecdote...

Thanks to you guys in this thread, I started prepping my wife early, maybe early February.  Not apocalypse shopping, but "hey, grab and extra pack of TP just in case". She did but neglected meat, bread and snacks stuff.  And definitely not enough beer and/or wine.

Nobody in coastal alabama was on this early but the day the NBA shut down I told the wife to go now and load up.  By the time she got to the store....empty.  meat, cheese, bread and tp all gone.  So we have had to go weekly in Hope's of grabbing what we can.

So monday I had to order some pool chemicals and other things from ACE hardware for pickup because I have high bp (controlled with meds) and a family history of heart issues and some diabetes.  I'm high risk so I'm holed up at home. 

Well the ace is inside of a Food Saver, low end grocery store that usually has good deals on meat and beer so I decide to check it out.  Maybe 3 people with masks, check out folks wearing gloves and some yellow tape to market 6 feet but nothing else... tight aisles, no distancing...people checking out meat, no distancing.  I did not grab a cart but patiently waited for folks to move, grabbed some chicken and some steaks and hit the self check out.

While waiting in line at self checkout, the cigarette/customer service line is smack in between the 4 self checkout kiosks... no tape and no regard for distancing.  People just walked right between to line up to get their smokes.  I wanted to punch somebody.

Did my checkout, got in the car and lathered down with sanitizer.  Didnt touch anything and washed my hands up to my elbows when I got home.  The proportion of lower income people in hospitals does not surprise me one bit.  It seems as if there is a section of society just not getting the memo or just not caring.

 
Dezbelief said:
North Texas town of 100,000 with a market area of 150,000 gloves are readily available. I haven't seen hand sanitizer in weeks until today. One pharmacy had 2oz bottles for $3.99 that they compounded themselves. Another store had 12oz bottles for $14.99 that was from Canada and was not obtainable through their regular wholesalers. They had paid $8 a bottle. Masks I still haven't seen since the run on supplies.
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Thanks Dez!

Anyone else?

 
Ksquared said:
I will post this again since no one responded to my "probably" too long of a post to read 2 pages ago and is the medical community believing their may be previous cases.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/seattle-flu-study-allegedly-tested-samples-for-covid-19-against-federal-state-guidelines

Early in this thread, the CDC told a lab to stop testing for COVID in Seattle area (I believe it was the first week of the nursing home outbreak).  They closed a school immediately prior to the official shut down because a 17 year old tested positive with a non CDC approved test - (remember the CDC tests did not work at this time).  This needs to be investigated thoroughly because it sounds to me like some one at the CDC was covering their butt from the testing screw up. 
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This was discussed in this thread at the time. Disgusting, a Kushner connected company was the first to obtain CDC approval for their test weeks later.

 
  • Thanks
Reactions: JAA
The wife 1/2 of our closest "couples friends" here in Evanston was just confirmed as positive for COVID-19.   She helps run a nursing home, and as such has been continuing to work outside of home during the pandemic.   Her husband and kids have been home the whole time.   She's been quarantined in her basement the past 6-7 days, since finding out that she was likely exposed.   Amazingly, she wasn't exposed through work technically -- she was exposed by not social distancing -- let's face it, this is really a best guess though.  She went to visit her mother (who lives in the same facility our friend helps to manage) who has Alzheimers.....I don't know the details, but basically she dropped off groceries for her mother.    The nurse/health worker caring for our friend's mother....lied and said she has no COVID exposure, but has evidently been taking care of a COVID+ family member for a few weeks now.

On the plus side, our friend is in great physical condition overall.  7 days in she has zero symptoms.   Feels great.   She's staying quarantined for at least one more week.   Her husband is freaking out.   Her two kids are doing ok.   We are all fingers crossed that A) she will be ok, B) husband will be ok, C) kids will have minimal symptoms if any because they are fairly young and very healthy.   On the minus side....this same friend just went through cancer like 6 months ago.   I mean, it's so hard to imagine conquering cancer.....and then facing this just a few months later.

This hits home big time for us.  We've known this couple since our kids were in pre-school together 8 years ago.   We have them up to our cabin every summer.  Do Christmas cookies every year with them as a family tradition.  They don't have any reliable family members, so literally if something happens to them, we would become legal guardians of their kids.   I write this not out of fear  (for them or their kids) or to be morbid, but just to share why this #### feels so real right now.   

Anyway, also wanted to mention some other stuff about how messed up CV testing STILL is.   This nurse who chose - and that's what it was, a choice - to knowingly put patients at risk has 22 patients at the facility in question -- and of those 22 patients (all over 70 years old) only 3 of them have been tested so far.   The facility's stance is "we won't test you unless you show symptoms.   Our friend's husband --- who lives with and is married to a CV+ patient now -- can't get tested.  Nobody will test him.   But hey, based on everything I read online, testing is easily available everywhere!  Hurray!

My wife is really upset by all this because they are close friends.   My kids seem oblivious - but they aren't as aware of precisely how devastating CV can be.   We're trying to figure out how to be supportive of our friends from a distance.   It would be a tough thing to navigate even if times were somewhat normal.  

So......yeah.  That's going on here.   Not looking for sympathy.  Just sharing today's reality.  We're all fortunate if we escape this thing.   Wishing good health to all of you.  Thanks for this thread.  It really has been helpful the past weeks.

 
Klimtology said:
Anyone have any luck getting Gloves, Masks, and/or Hand Sanitizer Online?

TIA
Click to expand...
I've posted this link before. If you'd like to support a small family of 10 farm business check them out. You can pick whatever scent you want from their soap list. Great quality. Being it's a spray it lasts londer than pouring a gel. The alcohol is cdc recommendation. It's moisturising unlike commercial hand sanitisers. Their soaps last a long time too and are the best quality I found when researching what to use during chemo.

https://goatmilkstuff.com/collections/hand-sanitizers

 
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Assume things are on the downslope by June, and restrictions are lifted.  What kind of vacations would y'all feel comfortable planning?  Airline?  Hotel?  Amusement park? Big city?  Cabin rental in the mountains sounds like the safest bet, IMO.

ETA: the shark move is to plan and reserve now - make sure its fully refundable but now is the time to move. 

 
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moleculo said:
Assume things are on the downslope by June, and restrictions are lifted.  What kind of vacations would y'all feel comfortable planning?  Airline?  Hotel?  Amusement park? Big city?  Cabin rental in the mountains sounds like the safest bet, IMO.
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All of them. 

Then figure out what I am going to do in July. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
ah, gotcha. ya id probably drop the vaporizing as well, as i usually do when i have a cough/old.

the cbd part of it always seemed a bit "obivous" in that it'd help... i wonder about thc and the other chemical components.
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well i know that high CBG strains are extremely beneficial due to their anti inflammatory properties. 

 
Just saw Suze Orman on CNN that if you are afraid to go back to work, immune compromised, elderly, need to take care of someone who is sick...and you haven't been laid off, you can quit and still get unemployment. 

 
CurlyNight said:
Just saw Suze Orman on CNN that if you are afraid to go back to work, immune compromised, elderly, need to take care of someone who is sick...and you haven't been laid off, you can quit and still get unemployment. 
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This really is bad advice to be giving out right now.

The problem with the federal bill is it is still tied to the states unemployment system. In WI right now if you quit and filed for unemployment right now for those reasons, you would be denied. They will allegedly be changing the system to adjust for these things and it might be retroactive to March 29th I think, but it hasn't happened yet. Like pretty much anywhere. 

Iowa specifically states you wont get it for some of those reasons and it is on an updated FAQ regarding coronavirus. 

 
Dezbelief said:
North Texas town of 100,000 with a market area of 150,000 gloves are readily available. I haven't seen hand sanitizer in weeks until today. One pharmacy had 2oz bottles for $3.99 that they compounded themselves. Another store had 12oz bottles for $14.99 that was from Canada and was not obtainable through their regular wholesalers. They had paid $8 a bottle. Masks I still haven't seen since the run on supplies.
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I don’t understand the huge demand for masks. This seems like one of the easy things to make on your own.

 
So, given what we are hearing about NYC deaths at home not being in any Covid counts - for understandable reasons: is there a source for total deaths by state year over year?  Would like compare this March to last March for several states.  Anyone point me to a reputable source for this data?

 
moleculo said:
Assume things are on the downslope by June, and restrictions are lifted.  What kind of vacations would y'all feel comfortable planning?  Airline?  Hotel?  Amusement park? Big city?  Cabin rental in the mountains sounds like the safest bet, IMO.

ETA: the shark move is to plan and reserve now - make sure its fully refundable but now is the time to move. 
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Nowhere. This thing isn’t going to magically go away. I am sorry to sound like a doomsayer, but there are still going to be hotspots all around this country. Unless you could prove you and your family have had it, why would you take a chance on something like a vacation no matter the great deal you get on it?

I prepped back in January. If they ease restrictions, I will be readying my family for round two of this when/if it comes back in the fall. I am going to take all the money we are saving by not going on vacation and eating out now and invest and shore up all our finances. If I am wrong and all turns out to be well, we will have an amazing vacation next summer.and be stronger financially because of the sacrifice we made this summer. 

That’s just me though, I wouldn’t fault anyone for doing what they want for their family in this really scary, uncertain time.

 
Morton Muffley said:
So, given what we are hearing about NYC deaths at home not being in any Covid counts - for understandable reasons: is there a source for total deaths by state year over year?  Would like compare this March to last March for several states.  Anyone point me to a reputable source for this data?
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CDC would probably have that. I did a quick search and found annual numbers by state by cause for 2017. 

You might be able to run some reports using the CDC info here.

 
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Two stories:  One, my brother's wife is a professor at a state university.  One of her graduate students is from Wuhan; she (student) had a child in December and her mother came from Wuhan to visit.  Brothers wife got sick in January and ever since has had bouts of coughing fits.  Brother and their child never got sick, they are not 100% sure what she had, she's never been tested.  They are early 40s.

Two, found out this week that a close friends family of four all had it.  They figure they brought it back from New York in March.  Dad had the classic three-week illness, teenage daughter had it a week, son and mom never had any symptoms but are 100% certain they would have it based on close contact.  None of them were tested; this is in metro Detroit.

 
General Malaise said:
I'm starting to hear more of this.  We had a nasty situation last night that involved our neighbor lady - sitting in a lawn chair uninvited in our front yard - dropping in casual conversation that she and her husband (a nurse) are convinced they had the virus in Feb.  My wife - who is very calm normally - chewed her a new poop chute and had the lady leaving in tears.  Neither one of us believe they had the virus though I suppose absent a test we'll never know, but she was over at our house with her kids in late Feb, has been hanging around our front yard drinking beers on nice afternoon and only now informed us she thinks she had it?  She said it like you would "nice day outside, huh?". 

So....that friendship is likely over or at the very least tarnished.  My coworker thinks his family had it in Dec.  My boss and I challenged him on that claim but his wife told him they had it and she sells essential oils....who would know better than her?

This is maddening.  What are these folks hoping to attain by claiming they had the virus - self diagnosed, mind you - already?  
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I think it’s twofold. 1) they are seeking to be out of danger. 2) want to show the media is lying to take our rights and it’s all a control thing. 

 
for the "I think I had it" crew, just something to point out from my own data analysis here...

I've been tracking our numbers (in LA) for several weeks now, and at this time, we are among the leaders in testing per capita in the USA, and our positive-cases-to-number-of-tests-completed is 20%, where it has been hovering for almost a week now, with large numbers of tests coming in daily. Now there are some outliers of course, with some of those probably being contact tracing, medical professionals, government offices, false negatives, etc. but still, that means 80% of people tested did NOT have Covid-19, but rather had something else that displayed similar symptoms. Whether it was a severe cold, some strain of flu, or some as of yet unidentified virus (other coronavirus strains even). 

Just food for thought. 

Stay safe, y'all. Cheers! :salute: 

 
Not sure if that has already been posted here.

Unlikely that California has ‘herd immunity’ to the coronavirus

The theory goes like this: California has fewer COVID-19 cases than hard-hit places like New York because the coronavirus has spread throughout the state undetected since the fall and most Californians are now immune.

Turns out it’s too early to prove the unlikely notion started by a Stanford University military historian who published an article about it in a national magazine that conservative talk show hosts and California media outlets quickly picked up. In fact, public health experts say there’s a far more probable explanation for California’s comparatively smaller case load of 20,491 compared with New York’s 170,512: The state’s early shelter-in-place orders have so far prevented many Californians from being exposed to the coronavirus. But without social isolation, they say, many Californians could still get sick.

We’ll still have a largely vulnerable population because people are not immune,” said UCSF’s Dr. Charles Chiu, one of the top infectious disease experts in the world. “The only way we’re able to control the virus is with a vaccine.”

The idea that many Californians are immune to COVID-19 started with Victor Davis Hanson, a senior fellow in military history at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Hanson wrote a March 31 think piece in the conservative National Review positing that the virus arrived in the U.S. from China in the fall and infected so many people that they developed immunity to the disease that would come to be called COVID-19. This massive level of protection from reinfection — a so-called “herd immunity” — could be responsible for California’s relatively low case rate, Hanson hypothesized. He concluded that “we won’t know the answers” until researchers conduct widespread testing to find out who had the disease.

Conservative talk show hosts Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh jumped on the theory.

“I think they’ve immunized themselves,” Limbaugh said about Californians on his nationally syndicated radio show a week ago - and credited Hanson with the idea.

This week, Monterey TV station KSBW, which is owned by the Hearst Corp., which also owns The Chronicle, interviewed Hanson. That’s when the theory about “herd immunity” spread locally to Bay Area stations and online news sources — including SFGate, also owned by Hearst, which published KSBW’s story (SFGate’s editorial director, Grant Marek, removed the article after questions about its accuracy came to light.)

The Chronicle contacted Hanson to ask what evidence backed up his theory. Through a Stanford University spokeswoman, Hanson pointed to a Stanford Medicine study that collected blood samples from Santa Clara County residents to determine whether they have antibodies to COVID-19. Antibodies appear when a body has fought a virus.

But the study’s results aren’t available yet, a Stanford Medicine spokeswoman said. She could not comment on whether the researchers were investigating herd immunity.

It is also not known yet whether people who have recovered from COVID-19 are immune from getting it again, although antibody tests will offer clues. Most — but not all — viruses do confer immunity once the patient recovers, so medical researchers hope people will be immune to a recurrence of COVID-19. But more research is needed.

Stanford Medicine’s Dr. James Zehnder, who helped to develop antibody tests being given to health care workers, said that there is not enough information to come to any conclusions on whether many Californians are already immune to the disease. He is not connected to the study that Hanson cited.

The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December, where scientists believe it jumped from bats to humans. The severe respiratory illness has since spread around the world.

UCSF’s Chiu, a leading scientist tracing the disease, published research with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the California Department of Public Health showing that numerous people brought the coronavirus into Northern California throughout January and February. The studies offered no evidence that the coronavirus arrived in the fall, as Hanson suggested.

Chiu conducts his research by tracing different strains of the disease. He connected the lineage of cases from the Grand Princess cruise ship that docked in Oakland in March to the first reported U.S. outbreak in Washington state in January. He discovered that the case of a traveler returning to California from New York was linked to strains circulating in Europe. And he revealed that an outbreak cluster in Santa Clara County had come from a strain from China.

None of the medical researchers who spoke to The Chronicle said evidence exists to support the idea that the virus was infecting Californians in the fall.

“That’s overstated. We would be seeing thousands of thousands and thousands of cases if this has been circulating longer,” said Dr. George Rutherford, another UCSF infectious disease specialist.

In order for large-scale immunity to protect people who are susceptible, at least 40% of a population needs to be immune, multiple infectious disease experts said. For the measles, that proportion is as high as 95%, Rutherford said. He added that it takes years to build up mass immunity for the flu.

So far, COVID-19 is known to have infected less than 1% of California’s population. But California still has one of the lowest rates of testing per capita in the country, so the true rate may be higher.

UCSF is also testing blood from non-COVID patients who got routine lab tests in San Francisco to get a sampling of how many people might have recovered from COVID-19 without knowing they had it. Dr. Bryan Greenhouse, a UCSF assistant professor and medical researcher with the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in San Francisco, said that even if 10% of those people had been infected with the coronavirus, it wouldn’t prove whether massive immunity had taken hold in the region.

Greenhouse said his educated guess was that the Bay Area has kept cases relatively low because of the early protections imposed by public health officials — and not because most people are immune.

“But we’re certainly open to finding out,” Greenhouse said. “The only way is to measure it.”
Click to expand...

 
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I talked to a buddy with Covid last night.  He's in his mid-40's, and in a wheelchair due to a severe back injury.  He got sick almost two weeks ago and thinks he picked it up from his wheelchair wheels somehow becoming contaminated which he then got on his hands and to his face.

He started feeling really sick about 7 days in and finally went in to the hospital.  He said they drained a bunch of fluid from his lungs, and reported that he likely has permanent damage not just to his lungs but to his kidneys as well (due in part to being dehydrated for days).  He said that there were several hours where it didn't look like he'd make it.  He also said he suffered a "small stroke", and his speech patterns were a little off with some slurring.  They put him on the serum antibody treatment this week and he started to improve, and he went home yesterday where he has in-home care to try and recover.  

Just brutal hearing his story.  

 
CurlyNight said:
Just saw Suze Orman on CNN that if you are afraid to go back to work, immune compromised, elderly, need to take care of someone who is sick...and you haven't been laid off, you can quit and still get unemployment. 
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You can already take leave and your employer has pay and hold your job if you are caring for someone who is sick.

shader said:
Very interesting study in South Korea being done on 91 patients that recovered and have tested positive again. 
 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/10/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive/
 

I read somewhere else this morning that the WHO is going to investigate this too.
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Bad news if true.  I'm going to hold out hope the testing either now or then isn't accurate.

 
BassNBrew said:
You can already take leave and your employer has pay and hold your job if you are caring for someone who is sick.

Bad news if true.  I'm going to hold out hope the testing either now or then isn't accurate.
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Will definitely be interesting to see if they were indeed reinfected or if maybe just got a false negative or if it was dormant and reactivated. A whole lot of bad scenarios possible there. Let's hope for the best, which I guess of those choices would be false negatives. :unsure:  

 
I hope some have watched the video I linked a couple hours ago. I've now had time to summarize. Again this is from a doctor who has compiled all of the interviews and articles stemming from Dr John Ioannidis whose Stanford study suggests coronavirus was almost surely here in the U.S. in  December and possibly as early as mid November. The doctor in the video is a doctor who shares these views and wants to add perspective to what we're actually dealing with...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAa_kHBE234

  • Ioannidis calls this a once in a lifetime fiasco, not a once in a lifetime pandemic
  • accounting simply for estimated mild symptoms and asymptomatic puts the mortality rate at 0.9% with other factors that can bring even lower
  • Swine Flu in 2009-2010 infected 1.4 billion worldwide with 575,000 killed
  • 60 million cases in the U.S. with 12,500 deaths yet we didn't have this panic or outrageous response
  • cruise ship had 19-20% infection rate yet only 1% mortality in spite of average passenger age of 65
  • extrapolated over US pop and its avg age we expect to see a mortality rate of .1-.2%
  • perfect storm in Italy of old population, high smoking, heart disease, and COPD rates combined with 1/3 of number ICU beds per person as U.S.
  • Italy hits capacity from the flu nearly every year, so adding anything on top of that is cause of their collapse
  • no lock down in S. Korea or Taiwan yet they've had much more success by isolating surges and targeting hot spots in much smarter way and acting on a more micro level
  • worst adviser is panic and that's all we're getting on TV, has led to critically bad decisions
  • most hospitals in the U.S. have not and will not have problems, yet the ones with problems are all we hear about
  • resources should be directed to the areas and hospitals who do have problems
  • 60 million die every year. If we had a meter on TV counting them we'd all be terrified and that's what's been created here
  • the incentive is there to discover something extraordinary to satisfy the level of sensationalism of what we've created here. In other words, a simple solution won't be accepted
  • better to isolate and take greater care of the high risk among us than shut down everything and keep people at home
  • W.H.O. has led us to bad decision after bad decision based on their actions and bad data
Some of my own thoughts...

  • if we go beyond simply factoring in those who had mild symptoms and the asymptomatic and begin to factor in the amount of cases misdiagnosed or even ignored from Dec thru Feb, that's when we start seeing estimates from Dr Ioannidis and others that bring the mortality rate to around .05%
  • when you understand how the flu in surge years can overrun hospitals for brief periods of time in high flue seasons, and then factor in the possibility that coronavirus has been striking in different parts of the U.S. since December, the numbers become far less daunting. Again, a bad flu season kills 40K, with a really bad flu season killing 60K. The counter-argument we've had is that this hit in a much smaller window. That argument vanishes if it's been here 5 months
  • we've created such a hysteria that there are many who call simple mediation methods and treatments "miracle cures" to the extent that a end-all vaccine has become the only answer for some. Yet there are plenty of examples of nations in both Europe and Asia where shutting down society wasn't needed
  • And I'll say it again, this was never about a deadly virus that wipes out all in its path like we've seen in movies. More and more it's being shown to be a virus that kills at the same rate if not less than many previous viruses we've dealt with without these drastic over-measures such as shutting down society. As with the flu, the common cold, and other ailments which young healthy people simply shrug off, the elderly and health compromised among us die from the complications of everyday viruses and bacteria that we go our who lives overcoming. When something like this breaks out, the measures should be directed at precaution with that segment of the population - NOT the entire population
  • Yes, this is more contagious than the flu and the common cold. That's why measures such as social distancing and masks, even homemade ones like used in the Czech Republic, were a much more appropriate response. We DID need to do more with this one than simply riding it out and accepting a higher than normal number of deaths in the winter months. It's contagiousness means extra steps to control spread were needed but not a complete shut down
  •  Limiting response to hot zones and protecting the vulnerable has allowed places to get by through this without shut downs
 
Here in Sacramento my three nurse friends from different hospitals still say they are only seeing 2 to 4 Coronavirus  patients at a time. Sometimes only one.

One said last week two people died.  Both were morbidly obese and had been in out of the hospital for months already. 

Besides that, the hospitals are empty and doctors and nurses are being paid to stay home. 

 
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caustic said:
Apropos of nothing, here's what people who study the economy for a living say about the "risks being worth the reward." 

IGM Economics Experts Panel - Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

Code: 
Question A: A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large 
contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.

Strongly Agree 52%
Agree 36%
Uncertain 5%
Disagree 0%
Strongly Disagree 0%

***Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections 
remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate 
the resurgence risk.***

Strongly Agree 41%
Agree 39%
Uncertain 14%
Disagree 0%
Strongly Disagree 0%

Question C: Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding
treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, 
making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a 
successful vaccine.

Strongly Agree 66%
Agree 27%
Uncertain 0%
Disagree 0%
Strogly Disagree 0%
Click to expand...
Thank you for sharing 

 
Clown Car said:
General Malaise said:
I'm starting to hear more of this.  We had a nasty situation last night that involved our neighbor lady - sitting in a lawn chair uninvited in our front yard - dropping in casual conversation that she and her husband (a nurse) are convinced they had the virus in Feb.  My wife - who is very calm normally - chewed her a new poop chute and had the lady leaving in tears.  Neither one of us believe they had the virus though I suppose absent a test we'll never know, but she was over at our house with her kids in late Feb, has been hanging around our front yard drinking beers on nice afternoon and only now informed us she thinks she had it?  She said it like you would "nice day outside, huh?". 

So....that friendship is likely over or at the very least tarnished.  My coworker thinks his family had it in Dec.  My boss and I challenged him on that claim but his wife told him they had it and she sells essential oils....who would know better than her?

This is maddening.  What are these folks hoping to attain by claiming they had the virus - self diagnosed, mind you - already?  
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I think it’s twofold. 1) they are seeking to be out of danger. 2) want to show the media is lying to take our rights and it’s all a control thing. 
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3) flagrant narcissism.

 
Interesting opinion article from Vox discussing what re-opening the economy might look like. First couple of paragraphs are below. 

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary.

There is no plan to return to normal.

Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the United States either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.

The AEI, CAP, and Harvard plans aren’t identical, but they’re similar. All of them feature a period of national lockdown — in which extreme social distancing is deployed to “flatten the curve” and health and testing capacity is surged to “raise the line.” That’s phase one. Phase two triggers after a set period (45 days for CAP, three months for Harvard) or, in the AEI plan, after 14 days of falling cases and a series of health supply markers.

All of them then imagine a phase two, which relaxes — but does not end — social distancing while implementing testing and surveillance on a mass scale. This is where you must begin imagining the almost unimaginable.

The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin. Similarly, people would scan QR codes when boarding mass transit or entering other high-risk public areas. And GPS tracking could be used to enforce quarantine on those who test positive with the disease, as is being done in Taiwan.
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Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
"We now forecast U.S. real GDP growth of negative 2.9% in 2020 (after deducting a COVID-19 impact of 5%). For global GDP, we expect a decline of 1.4%, implying a recession on par with 2008-09. Our U.S. forecast is based on our detailed scenarios as we project the industry-level impact of mitigation strategies. We think the scope of shutdown orders to disrupt the U.S. economy is probably overrated, as large swaths of the U.S. economy are exempt from the orders. Meanwhile, historically large fiscal stimulus should prevent a collapse in the demand side of the economy."

Some heroic assumptions here. I have not seen anyone anywhere suggesting such a miminal impact to the economy. 
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Can you post those analysis?  Morningstar is not some chump company

 
Chickenwang said:
The Commish said:
UPDATE:  Mrs. Commish is feeling significantly better.  Not coughing hardly at all any more and the fever went away on Thursday.  She still has a little tightness/burning sensation (at times) in her chest, but not close to what it was.  On Thursday it was like a flip of the switch for her.  We STILL haven't gotten the results yet and there is NO ONE to call for an update.  We still keep her relatively quarantined from the rest of us, but we've loosened it slightly.  The one thing I haven't heard of those experiencing symptoms is them going away quickly which leads me even further down the path of her having something else.  Hoping we are passed the worst of it.  Uncertainty has been the worst part of it, but its getting better.

Watching her this week and listening to talk of them "opening things back up" because the "solution can't be worse than the problem" has been maddening.  In my estimation, if they open things back up any time in the next 4-6 weeks, wave two and three (we WILL have them) will be worse than what we're going through now.  I can't believe that's even a consideration right now.
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I can't believe your consideration is to keep everything closed up ?   Makes no sense at all 

Your wife had what everyone in this world experiences....a cold, a fever, a flu, a sickness.   Why don't we just close all the doors for the rest of our lives?   Im afraid of what your response would be
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When you say “makes no sense at all”, what analysis, studies, or data are you basing that off of?  I would love to read those. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I hope some have watched the video I linked a couple hours ago. I've now had time to summarize. Again this is from a doctor who has compiled all of the interviews and articles stemming from Dr John Ioannidis whose Stanford study suggests coronavirus was almost surely here in the U.S. in  December and possibly as early as mid November. The doctor in the video is a doctor who shares these views and wants to add perspective to what we're actually dealing with...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAa_kHBE234

  • Ioannidis calls this a once in a lifetime fiasco, not a once in a lifetime pandemic
  • accounting simply for estimated mild symptoms and asymptomatic puts the mortality rate at 0.9% with other factors that can bring even lower
  • Swine Flu in 2009-2010 infected 1.4 billion worldwide with 575,000 killed
  • 60 million cases in the U.S. with 12,500 deaths yet we didn't have this panic or outrageous response
  • cruise ship had 19-20% infection rate yet only 1% mortality in spite of average passenger age of 65
  • extrapolated over US pop and its avg age we expect to see a mortality rate of .1-.2%
  • perfect storm in Italy of old population, high smoking, heart disease, and COPD rates combined with 1/3 of number ICU beds per person as U.S.
  • Italy hits capacity from the flu nearly every year, so adding anything on top of that is cause of their collapse
  • no lock down in S. Korea or Taiwan yet they've had much more success by isolating surges and targeting hot spots in much smarter way and acting on a more micro level
  • worst adviser is panic and that's all we're getting on TV, has led to critically bad decisions
  • most hospitals in the U.S. have not and will not have problems, yet the ones with problems are all we hear about
  • resources should be directed to the areas and hospitals who do have problems
  • 60 million die every year. If we had a meter on TV counting them we'd all be terrified and that's what's been created here
  • the incentive is there to discover something extraordinary to satisfy the level of sensationalism of what we've created here. In other words, a simple solution won't be accepted
  • better to isolate and take greater care of the high risk among us than shut down everything and keep people at home
  • W.H.O. has led us to bad decision after bad decision based on their actions and bad data
Some of my own thoughts...

  • if we go beyond simply factoring in those who had mild symptoms and the asymptomatic and begin to factor in the amount of cases misdiagnosed or even ignored from Dec thru Feb, that's when we start seeing estimates from Dr Ioannidis and others that bring the mortality rate to around .05%
  • when you understand how the flu in surge years can overrun hospitals for brief periods of time in high flue seasons, and then factor in the possibility that coronavirus has been striking in different parts of the U.S. since December, the numbers become far less daunting. Again, a bad flu season kills 40K, with a really bad flu season killing 60K. The counter-argument we've had is that this hit in a much smaller window. That argument vanishes if it's been here 5 months
  • we've created such a hysteria that there are many who call simple mediation methods and treatments "miracle cures" to the extent that a end-all vaccine has become the only answer for some. Yet there are plenty of examples of nations in both Europe and Asia where shutting down society wasn't needed
  • And I'll say it again, this was never about a deadly virus that wipes out all in its path like we've seen in movies. More and more it's being shown to be a virus that kills at the same rate if not less than many previous viruses we've dealt with without these drastic over-measures such as shutting down society. As with the flu, the common cold, and other ailments which young healthy people simply shrug off, the elderly and health compromised among us die from the complications of everyday viruses and bacteria that we go our who lives overcoming. When something like this breaks out, the measures should be directed at precaution with that segment of the population - NOT the entire population
  • Yes, this is more contagious than the flu and the common cold. That's why measures such as social distancing and masks, even homemade ones like used in the Czech Republic, were a much more appropriate response. We DID need to do more with this one than simply riding it out and accepting a higher than normal number of deaths in the winter months. It's contagiousness means extra steps to control spread were needed but not a complete shut down
  •  Limiting response to hot zones and protecting the vulnerable has allowed places to get by through this without shut downs
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I'm open to this view point but i need data.  I'm not watching a video - youtube is not data.  I need proof that it was here in November.  Massive, widespread antibody testing should do it.  Short of that, the "it was here in November" is nothing but wishful thinking.

We should base decisions on science and data, not anecdotes and wishful thoughts.

 
shader said:
Thanks for posting.  It’s sad that there are actually people that think California might have herd immunity. 
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To be fair, the headlines are turning the Stanford study into a suggestion of herd immunity. In actuality the primary point of the study is to say that this looks like it's been here for sure by December and possibly as early as November. Which seems to be typical of both sides when trying to discredit the other. Take their farthest reaching suggestion and make that it's convenient conclusion. If California was hit hard by something in December and it turns out it was CV19, and even more so that it's led to herd immunity matching the low current numbers, it wouldn't be some huge surprise.

What would be a an astoundingly, outrageous surprise would be something this contagious taking 4 months to travel from China to the U.S.

 
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