Fun Fact: The ppg advantage in having the KC Defense over the Min Defense is greater than the ppg advantage in having Adrian Peterson over Fred Jackson.
The problem, IMO, is that it's very hard to predict which defenses are going to perform well. You know that Adrian Peterson is going to produce top 6-7 RB numbers if healthy. Which defense is that reliable? With the benefit of hindsight you can say that KC has been great this year, but how many people saw that coming? How many people have been starting them throughout this hot streak? How many people really expect that performance to persist all year?
A couple fortunate TD returns can be the difference between a stud defense and a dud defense. I think there's a lot of pure luck involved. It's not like the other positions where you can lock up a guy like Julio Jones or Andrew Luck and expect quality top 10 numbers for the next five years. The hot defense is going to vary wildly by the season or even by the month. Combine that with the fact that viable options are freely available on waivers all the time and
I'm not a big proponent of prioritizing the team defense. I'll keep one indefinitely if I stumble upon a good one, but mainly I just play matchups and waivers. Maybe that is a leak, but I'm not so sure.
That's the thing though, you don't have to prioritize it to end up with a good one. Hence the trade that got all this started, where the current #1 fantasy defense was moved for a late 2nd round pick.
Also, to be clear here, I'm really only concerned with grabbing them for the current year. Unlike other positions, anything beyond this year is just gravy. They have little value because they're so hard to identify year to year. But they're not hard to identify in the middle of the year. If you could upgrade from Fred Jackson to Adrian Peterson for the rest of the year, how much is that worth to you? JonB got that upgrade for the cost of a late 2nd round pick.
KC could fizzle out, but history seems to imply it's not that likely. The top defenses, and especially the tippy top, seem to be pretty consistent once they're identified a month or so into the year. Last year's top defense a month into the season was Chicago and the top defense at the end of the year was Chicago. Of the top 5 defenses after week 4 of last year, only one finished outside the top 5 (Arizona at #9).
As to the week to week consistency, sure it varies more than other positions, which is another part of what makes those top couple so valuable because they usually don't vary nearly as much.
Consider this...
Last year's top TE finished under five points 2 times and under ten points 9 times. He finished 31 points ahead of the #5 TE and 57 points ahead of the #12 TE.
Last year's top WR finished under five points 2 times and under ten points 5 times. He finished 23 points ahead of the #5 WR and 49 points ahead of the #12 WR.
Last year's top defense finished under five points 3 times and under ten points 5 times. They finished 65 points ahead of the #5 defense and 100 points ahead of the #12 defense.
That's a pretty massive advantage to grab a hold of at a cheap price. That kicker/defense combo way down at the bottom of our fantasy box scores that we don't even pay attention to offers some serious hidden points. Do a little exercise where you look back at games you've lost recently and see how many points you gave up to your opponent at kicker/defense.
