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***Official Road to the 2017 Breeders Cup*** - GUN RUNNER Romps, Rob Ryan Doppleganger Rejoices! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
1) Dentist - save it. Terrible schtick.
2) Mastery romps - but is out with an injury. Sucks
http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-santa-anita-san-felipe-20170311-story.html
3) Me and Mrs. Smails have a shot at going. Flights booked, rental car and hotel room for Thursday night (further outside of town so may need the rental car). All using free miles or points. Bidding on a small # of packages that include 2 nights at the Marriott downtown, bourbon tasting and handicapping party on Friday night, and VIP tickets to the Derby. If I win that (reasonable, $1400 for two) then I just tickets for the Oaks on Friday. Bucket list item. I'll know on St Patrick's Day if I'm in. If so will be looking for suggestions from some of you seasoned vets. Would get in Thurs at 6, fly home Sunday night.
2) Mastery romps - but is out with an injury. Sucks
http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-santa-anita-san-felipe-20170311-story.html
3) Me and Mrs. Smails have a shot at going. Flights booked, rental car and hotel room for Thursday night (further outside of town so may need the rental car). All using free miles or points. Bidding on a small # of packages that include 2 nights at the Marriott downtown, bourbon tasting and handicapping party on Friday night, and VIP tickets to the Derby. If I win that (reasonable, $1400 for two) then I just tickets for the Oaks on Friday. Bucket list item. I'll know on St Patrick's Day if I'm in. If so will be looking for suggestions from some of you seasoned vets. Would get in Thurs at 6, fly home Sunday night.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Tampa Bay Derby - TAPWRIT doin' work, record setting run 
San Felipe - MASTERY much the best, ILIAD wanted no part of that stretch out ... as Smails alluded to above, the winner is now DONE for the foreseeable future, possibly career :(
he joins other big names McCRACKEN and CLASSIC EMPIRE on the sidelines ... very muddled picture atm, except for TAPWRIT, who is the top horse, imo ... wonder if UNIQUE BELLA's connections decide to take a run at the Derby now
San Felipe - MASTERY much the best, ILIAD wanted no part of that stretch out ... as Smails alluded to above, the winner is now DONE for the foreseeable future, possibly career :(
he joins other big names McCRACKEN and CLASSIC EMPIRE on the sidelines ... very muddled picture atm, except for TAPWRIT, who is the top horse, imo ... wonder if UNIQUE BELLA's connections decide to take a run at the Derby now
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Thank you for this thread, OTB. Great great stuff in here.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
big day down at Oaklawn, centerpiece is my favorite prep of the season - The G2 Rebel Stakes - here are the Formulator PPs
Baffert trained #7 AMERICAN ANTHEM (Bodemeister) is the 2/1 favorite, in only his third race - last time out he lost a ding-dong battle to GORMLEY in the Sham back in January ... sloppy track, and AA was caught in the stretch after leading for 3/4 of the race - GORMLEY followed that up with a very disappointing (and well beaten) fourth in last week's San Felipe
let's see how AA responds in (hopefully) better conditions.
second up on the odds is 4/1 #10 ROYAL MO (Uncle Mo), who is coming off a nice win in last month's Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita.- was a weak field chasing him, but he did what was needed, and pretty much waltzed home.
also at 4/1 is the Pletcher trained #6 MALAGACY (Shackleford) - getting a ton of respect here ... this will be his third race, shipping from Gulfstream, where he romped easily in his first two races. here is a look at his maiden on Jan. 4th, and his follow-up on Feb. 12th. awesome looking colt, excited to see how he does in this company - he hasn't faced much thus far, but sure has looked terrific mowing down the tomato cans he was in with. i think he's a major player going forward.
two hometown horses figure to be in the mix - the 9/2 #4 PETROV, and the 10/1 #2 UNCONTESTED. they both have run in the two previous preps here, with UNCONTESTED besting PETROV (co-favorites) in the muddy Smarty Jones back in January ... they both returned for last month's Southwest, where UNCONTESTED (even money) got out early, but was overtaken by PETROV turning for home ... as UNCONTESTED faded fast, ONE LINER (absent today, next in Ark. Derby?) came charging and lugging to win by four lengths. i like PETROV here, he's an honest horse who always finds the money (like TAPWRIT) ... will be a factor in exotics, would love to see him step up and take this down.
#5 UNTRAPPED has been in this company, and has finished second his last two out - behind GUEST SUITE in a sloppy LeComte, and following up behind GIRVIN in the Risen Star (both at Fairgrounds) ... if the pace is hot today, this colt can get up and spring the upset.
this is a very deep and competitive field, and will be a great test for all ... the winner will damn well earn that 50 points ... any combo of the 4/5/6/7 is the way to lean here, will wait to see conditions/how track is playing before settling.
Baffert trained #7 AMERICAN ANTHEM (Bodemeister) is the 2/1 favorite, in only his third race - last time out he lost a ding-dong battle to GORMLEY in the Sham back in January ... sloppy track, and AA was caught in the stretch after leading for 3/4 of the race - GORMLEY followed that up with a very disappointing (and well beaten) fourth in last week's San Felipe
let's see how AA responds in (hopefully) better conditions.second up on the odds is 4/1 #10 ROYAL MO (Uncle Mo), who is coming off a nice win in last month's Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita.- was a weak field chasing him, but he did what was needed, and pretty much waltzed home.
also at 4/1 is the Pletcher trained #6 MALAGACY (Shackleford) - getting a ton of respect here ... this will be his third race, shipping from Gulfstream, where he romped easily in his first two races. here is a look at his maiden on Jan. 4th, and his follow-up on Feb. 12th. awesome looking colt, excited to see how he does in this company - he hasn't faced much thus far, but sure has looked terrific mowing down the tomato cans he was in with. i think he's a major player going forward.
two hometown horses figure to be in the mix - the 9/2 #4 PETROV, and the 10/1 #2 UNCONTESTED. they both have run in the two previous preps here, with UNCONTESTED besting PETROV (co-favorites) in the muddy Smarty Jones back in January ... they both returned for last month's Southwest, where UNCONTESTED (even money) got out early, but was overtaken by PETROV turning for home ... as UNCONTESTED faded fast, ONE LINER (absent today, next in Ark. Derby?) came charging and lugging to win by four lengths. i like PETROV here, he's an honest horse who always finds the money (like TAPWRIT) ... will be a factor in exotics, would love to see him step up and take this down.
#5 UNTRAPPED has been in this company, and has finished second his last two out - behind GUEST SUITE in a sloppy LeComte, and following up behind GIRVIN in the Risen Star (both at Fairgrounds) ... if the pace is hot today, this colt can get up and spring the upset.
this is a very deep and competitive field, and will be a great test for all ... the winner will damn well earn that 50 points ... any combo of the 4/5/6/7 is the way to lean here, will wait to see conditions/how track is playing before settling.
elguapo07
Footballguy
OTB, I'm curious to see if Malagacy can go 8+ furlongs as he's only gone 6.5 and Pletcher seems to think he's a sprinter but has to try him at 2 turns as he's so fast. I hope he doesn't get bet down today. Looks like there could be a pace meltdown and I like #11 Lookin at Lee to benefit if there is. ML 15-1 could make the exotics juicy.
Good luck.
Good luck.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeah, Malagacy is the big X - factor today, no question ... imo he's gonna be up to the task, and, as i stated earlier, will make noise down the road. a two turn stretch is a big test, though
would expect Uncontested and AA to be out on the early pace with him (Malagacy) ... as far as Lookin' at Lee, if there is a pace meltdown, i would expect Petrov and Untrapped to reap the most benefits ... LaL has been in this company, and has been very consistent (speedwise) his last few out, i just think the two i mentioned are a tad higher class atm ... but if chaos ensues down the stretch, he's got a decent shot.
best of luck to you, as well ... gonna be taking a harder look at this as the day goes on.
elguapo07
Footballguy
BTW, in The Essex I think Mor Spirit is beatable and will be overbet due to his connections. I like Petcher's Madefromlucky much more and I think the two Cowboy horses (#1 and #6) can factor into this, the latter at a big price.yeah, Malagacy is the big X - factor today, no question ... imo he's gonna be up to the task, and, as i stated earlier, will make noise down the road. a two turn stretch is a big test, though
would expect Uncontested and AA to be out on the early pace with him (Malagacy) ... as far as Lookin' at Lee, if there is a pace meltdown, i would expect Petrov and Untrapped to reap the most benefits ... LaL has been in this company, and has been very consistent (speedwise) his last few out, i just think the two i mentioned are a tad higher class atm ... but if chaos ensues down the stretch, he's got a decent shot.
best of luck to you, as well ... gonna be taking a harder look at this as the day goes on.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Nothing says greatness like an authoritative middle-move. I'm still too old-fashioned to label a horse a favorite after a race @ TBD, but i shoulda got down on him @ 40-1 when we were talking about him a month ago....Tampa Bay Derby - TAPWRIT doin' work, record setting run
otb_lifer
Footballguy
as impressive as his TBD was, i was as impressed with his effort in the Davis - that's when he really caught my eye ... unfortunately Ortiz got pinched on the fence when McCracken was making his run, but, once straightened, Tapwrit came flying home, and (imo) would've taken 'Crack down - no small feat considering 'Crack was probably the highest regarded contender coming into this prep season.
he's honest, a steady colt who seems to always run his race.
ETA: talk going about that his next time out will be the Bluegrass, which is also rumored to feature the return of both Classic Empire and McCracken - buckle up
.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
MALAGACY answers all the questions in yesterday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn - first stretch out at two turns, and he looked as good as i anticipated - reminding me of his pops Shackleford
UNTRAPPED and PETROV ran as i expected, with SONNETEER crashing the party at yuuuuge odds.
AMERICAN ANTHEM and ROYAL MO need to do some work, uninspiring efforts from both.
UNTRAPPED and PETROV ran as i expected, with SONNETEER crashing the party at yuuuuge odds.
AMERICAN ANTHEM and ROYAL MO need to do some work, uninspiring efforts from both.
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elguapo07
Footballguy
I thought Malagacy looked good by stalking the pace and digging in down the stretch but I see that he only ran an 89 Beyer and a 100-1 shot came in 2nd. What is the next step with him? The Ark Derby would only give him 3 weeks rest for the Derby? I have him on top of a few nice futures Exactas so I have an invested interest in him. With the injuries and set backs to the early Derby frontrunners, Pletcher seems to have a few horses that are looking like Derby contenders in Tapwrit, One Liner and perhaps Battalion Runner along with Malagacy.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
the Beyer was not spectacular, but for his first big test on the trail, it was a definite eye opener ... he was cruising at the end, could've easily bagged another furlong or two.
he's very lightly raced, would not expect much trouble with the three week turnaround if they opt for Arkansas Derby.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Odds do seem off, have a feeling they will balance out after this week.Uncontested at 7/1, while Petrov and Untrapped are both at 40/1?
ayfkm?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
they absolutely will ... but those odds were set on 3/19, day after the Rebel (see Malagacy at 5/1 for the Derby as per the board)
to have Uncontested at single digit odds (or anything below 40/1) is ridiculous ... good shot he doesn't even see the starting gate May 6th - Petrov and Untrapped are same class, with more points - and were slapped at 40/1 - not seeing how that's possible.
link to Uncontested folding down the stretch in his last two prep races is further up thread in my Rebel preview post from Saturday - no way in hell that horse can get the Derby distance.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
still not working, as per DRF - i mentioned up thread that i'd be surprised to see him at Churchill.elguapo07 said:
ETA- J Boys being pointed to Florida Derby, Tapwrit to Bluegrass for another shot at the 'Crack
03/20/2017 2:40PM
McCraken works for Blue Grass, Classic Empire does not
McCraken and Classic Empire, two of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby on May 6, appear to be moving in different directions as their next scheduled start, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 8, approaches.
Juvenile champion Classic Empire apparently refused to break off for a workout on Sunday at Palm Meadows, according to drf.com. The 3-year-old son of Pioneerof The Nile has only managed a single workout since his disappointing third-place effort in the Feb. 4 Holy Bull, but connections had been optimistic, aiming the colt for the April 8 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. That race is now just 19 days away.
“He went out and he started off and just didn't want to go,” Casse told bloodhorse.com. “My thought is that he's had a lot of things happen to him there and maybe it's just not a great place for him.
“So after that yesterday, we went ahead and sent him to Ocala, and this morning he was a happy camper and galloped beautiful. We went back to our roots, that's where he started.”
Casse went on to say that there didn't seem to be any physical issues with the juvenile champion, calling him a “happy, healthy horse.” The team's new plan is to breeze Classic Empire at Casse's training center in Ocala later this week, then send him up to Keeneland to prepare for the Blue Grass.
A hoof abscess was determined to be the cause of Classic Empire's poor performance in the Holy Bull, and lingering issues with the foot encouraged trainer Mark Casse to skip over the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. On March 3, attempting to work for the first time since the Holy Bull, Classic Empire refused to break off at the pole under Julien Leparoux, and back at the barn was diagnosed with back pain. An equine therapist seemed to be able to alleviate his back issues, and on March 12 Classic Empire breezed a half-mile in :48.95 at Palm Meadows.
Classic Empire has been labeled a “bad boy” in the past by assistant trainer Norm Casse, and the colt's third career start, the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga, demonstrated his unprofessional antics. He wheeled shortly after the start of the race, dumping his jockey and galloping around toward the back of the starting gate.
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Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
got me pumped now ... might have to brave the Big A today
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Belmont was always an event, but i lived right on the ACE so the whole inner-track season was like a junkie call. I was shoppin myself in the show biz then, so it was like 2-3 meetings a wk and the rest of my sched was up to me. Get the form with my morning coffee, mark it up, same walk to OTB or Spring St station, baby, and the choice would talk to me every morning.Conduit Ave.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
inner track on those 5 degree wind/chill days is insane - my last time out was a similar freezing afternoon this past January - if there were 75 people there, there were 6 million -
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Spiral Stakes today on the synth at Turfway ... haven't seen much of this lot, but #8 KITTENS CAT seems to be the one to watch here
installed as 4/1 favorite, but less than spectacular last couple out - both on the turf - getting passed in the stretch at the Palm Beach three weeks ago, and finishing out the money (as 9/5 favorite) in the Dania Beach back in January. has only run in Stakes company in his career, and did bag the 2016 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with a nice closing run down the middle ... has posted some nice BSFs as well.
think biggest challenge will be the #2 SOGLIO ... loved how he got up for a flying place finish back in late December's Eddie Logan - definitely has the closing ability to be a huge factor at the wire. think he can bag this one.
PPs for all nominees here ... lot to sift through to find the dozen hitting the gate today, but, free is for me
installed as 4/1 favorite, but less than spectacular last couple out - both on the turf - getting passed in the stretch at the Palm Beach three weeks ago, and finishing out the money (as 9/5 favorite) in the Dania Beach back in January. has only run in Stakes company in his career, and did bag the 2016 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with a nice closing run down the middle ... has posted some nice BSFs as well.
think biggest challenge will be the #2 SOGLIO ... loved how he got up for a flying place finish back in late December's Eddie Logan - definitely has the closing ability to be a huge factor at the wire. think he can bag this one.
PPs for all nominees here ... lot to sift through to find the dozen hitting the gate today, but, free is for me
otb_lifer
Footballguy
The Spiral goes to 24/1 shot FAST AND ACCURATE - sat a very nice rating pace, then made the move turning for home ... held on to sneak in by a length. KITTENS CAT up for third, SOGLIO was mid pack.
the winner gets a gate at Churchill, and, in a very easy move for me, becomes my first legit toss (well, second, if UNCONTESTED somehow makes it
).
that being said ...
Today we get the Sunland Derby, and the prime time debut of the Baffert trained #3 BRONZE AGE (3/1) - who is becoming a 'wise guy' tout, especially with all of the chaos swirling about the top of this year's crop. this will mark his fourth career start, pretty much wired the field (54k allw at S.A) last time out, with a 104 BSF. big spot for this colt to step up and make a splash ... i believe he's gonna answer the bell. price is gonna plummet by post time, would expect 9/5 by then. kinda hoping this is a breakout race for him, we need some more juice up top, and a Baffert bullet will get a ton of play.
lots of heavy hitters here, with O'Niel, Pletcher, Asmussen, Lukas, Amoss, McPeek all shipping in - a deep field, would not be surprised to see any of eleven take this down - think the only toss here is the #8 WINE AND DIVINE, all others are in play.
taking a longer look at #1 SHAREHOLDER VALUE, even though he has been less than inspiring running in Stakes company thus far. he's been in with some of this year's top contenders, and is well seasoned ... as deep as this field is, it's also unspectacular ... think he has a very good shot.
another one to pay attention to is hometown hopeful #12 CONQUEST MO MONEY, who is undefeated over three races on this track, last time out besting today's #5 IRAP in the Mine That Bird derby -
cannot find replays for any of these cats, except for watching SHAREHOLDER VALUE being dusted in previously posted Lecomte, Risen Star, and Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup
all nominated PPs here - sift through to find this dirty dozen.
the winner gets a gate at Churchill, and, in a very easy move for me, becomes my first legit toss (well, second, if UNCONTESTED somehow makes it
).that being said ...
Today we get the Sunland Derby, and the prime time debut of the Baffert trained #3 BRONZE AGE (3/1) - who is becoming a 'wise guy' tout, especially with all of the chaos swirling about the top of this year's crop. this will mark his fourth career start, pretty much wired the field (54k allw at S.A) last time out, with a 104 BSF. big spot for this colt to step up and make a splash ... i believe he's gonna answer the bell. price is gonna plummet by post time, would expect 9/5 by then. kinda hoping this is a breakout race for him, we need some more juice up top, and a Baffert bullet will get a ton of play.
lots of heavy hitters here, with O'Niel, Pletcher, Asmussen, Lukas, Amoss, McPeek all shipping in - a deep field, would not be surprised to see any of eleven take this down - think the only toss here is the #8 WINE AND DIVINE, all others are in play.
taking a longer look at #1 SHAREHOLDER VALUE, even though he has been less than inspiring running in Stakes company thus far. he's been in with some of this year's top contenders, and is well seasoned ... as deep as this field is, it's also unspectacular ... think he has a very good shot.
another one to pay attention to is hometown hopeful #12 CONQUEST MO MONEY, who is undefeated over three races on this track, last time out besting today's #5 IRAP in the Mine That Bird derby -
cannot find replays for any of these cats, except for watching SHAREHOLDER VALUE being dusted in previously posted Lecomte, Risen Star, and Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup
all nominated PPs here - sift through to find this dirty dozen.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Still find it hard to believe that Sunland is part of the Derby Trail now. I won a Derby at Sunland as an owner.The Spiral goes to 24/1 shot FAST AND ACCURATE - sat a very nice rating pace, then made the move turning for home ... held on to sneak in by a length. KITTENS CAT up for third, SOGLIO was mid pack.
the winner gets a gate at Churchill, and, in a very easy move for me, becomes my first legit toss (well, second, if UNCONTESTED somehow makes it
that being said ...
Today we get the Sunland Derby, and the prime time debut of the Baffert trained #3 BRONZE AGE (3/1) - who is becoming a 'wise guy' tout, especially with all of the chaos swirling about the top of this year's crop. this will mark his fourth career start, pretty much wired the field (54k allw at S.A) last time out, with a 104 BSF. big spot for this colt to step up and make a splash ... i believe he's gonna answer the bell. price is gonna plummet by post time, would expect 9/5 by then. kinda hoping this is a breakout race for him, we need some more juice up top, and a Baffert bullet will get a ton of play.
lots of heavy hitters here, with O'Niel, Pletcher, Asmussen, Lukas, Amoss, McPeek all shipping in - a deep field, would not be surprised to see any of eleven take this down - think the only toss here is the #8 WINE AND DIVINE, all others are in play.
taking a longer look at #1 SHAREHOLDER VALUE, even though he has been less than inspiring running in Stakes company thus far. he's been in with some of this year's top contenders, and is well seasoned ... as deep as this field is, it's also unspectacular ... think he has a very good shot.
another one to pay attention to is hometown hopeful #12 CONQUEST MO MONEY, who is undefeated over three races on this track, last time out besting today's #5 IRAP in the Mine That Bird derby -
cannot find replays for any of these cats, except for watching SHAREHOLDER VALUE being dusted in previously posted Lecomte, Risen Star, and Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup
all nominated PPs here - sift through to find this dirty dozen.
Early 80s i was handicapping for a big coke dealer in Santa Fe who wanted to start a stable. I advised him on some claims and the early ones were successful. He then wanted me to key on claiming fillies/mares cuz he wanted to breed them.
The biggest breeding/racing operation in NM was Double B Ranch, breeders of Bold Ego, the most successful NM-bred of all time. Their SFe trainer dropped one of their fillies, wonderfully named Booging Boo Boo, into a M8500 (the track's highest claiming tag at the time) to try to get her straightened out. I had a suspicion from reading her dam's name that there was a Bold Ego connection and, sure enough, the dam was a sister to NM's all-time speediest horse.
My whale had promised his $ guy he wouldnt go over 5K on claims, so i raised the other $3500 and we got her. Double B immediately fired their stable mgr for putting her in for a tag and offered us $20k and kinda threatened our connections. I got kinda mad at my whale for wanting to turn over the quick cash, when she could be a foundation mare for a breeding op. I was also mad @ Double B for the noise they were making, so i insisted on keeping a minor share for a 1-in-4 breeding right.
On December 10, 1983 Booging Boo Boo upset colts to win the 10K (unfortunately, the Jockey Club had just raised blacktype rights to 25K+ stakes) New Mexico Derby at Sunland. I was in NYC by then but have a certificate somewhere on it.
We lost six-figures as breeders and I had to sell my Booging Boo Boo breeders rights back to Double B to keep up with it. Never had much of a get anyway, from what i hear. I know now that most of em dont.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
This year I will be fulfilling a Bucket List item and will be attending the KD with an old military buddy and my GF.
We just secured our seats, 1st row of section 323. Not cheap, but it's a once in a lifetime event for me.
We just secured our seats, 1st row of section 323. Not cheap, but it's a once in a lifetime event for me.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Nice. I tried to get a package from Chase card promotion but it sold out. I had already booked flights and shoulder hotel room. Package included great tickets for Derby and Hotel for 2 nights, VIP Party with bourbon tasting, etc. Didn't get it though. I still would have gone but hotels were $600-$700. I think I'm going to plan now to go next year. Enjoy.
I really liked how Hence looked today in the Sunland Derby. Out of Street Boss and has AP Indy on the dam side. Distance will be no problem. Weak crop with Mastery out so give think this horse has a big shot.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
50 points, along with a gate at Churchill, was up for grabs yesterday at Sunland Park ... HENCE, we have a new contender
he was 11th at the 1/2 mile, then started making an outside move on a hot early pace ... BRONZE AGE was up close, but dropped out (another injury on the trail), as CONQUEST MO MONEY made his bid, and had the lead for a second turning for home - was inhaled by HENCE, who blazed down the stretch, and won by 4 lengths.
not the greatest of fields, but the 10/1 Asmussen trained winner looked very impressive doing his work ... the kind of horse who can make a strong move off the pace - he looked very fresh at the line, another couple furlongs would've been no problem - perfect form for the Derby.
if he goes out again, would expect Arkansas Derby (4/15)
he was 11th at the 1/2 mile, then started making an outside move on a hot early pace ... BRONZE AGE was up close, but dropped out (another injury on the trail), as CONQUEST MO MONEY made his bid, and had the lead for a second turning for home - was inhaled by HENCE, who blazed down the stretch, and won by 4 lengths.
not the greatest of fields, but the 10/1 Asmussen trained winner looked very impressive doing his work ... the kind of horse who can make a strong move off the pace - he looked very fresh at the line, another couple furlongs would've been no problem - perfect form for the Derby.
if he goes out again, would expect Arkansas Derby (4/15)
otb_lifer
Footballguy
catching up to the UAE Derby, which was also run on Sunday ... fantastic finish, featuring a duel down the stretch - all the way to the wire - between EPICHARIS and THUNDER SNOW, with TS getting back up just in time, and taking it by the proverbial nose. pace was not very brisk, but these two dug in for quite a battle ... MASTER PLAN came flying in for show dough, and may have taken their measure with another furlong.
this was also the first of the 100 point (to the winner) races on the trail, so TS is locked for Churchill if his Irish connections choose to ship. EPICHARIS bagged 50 for his earlier Hyacinth Stakes score, and also has a gate for May 6th pending connections next move, though at this time it appears that they will not be in Kentucky.
jumping off the trail here to tribute the richest purse horse in history, and the greatest of this era - ARROGATE - a brilliant last to first clinic (hand ridden home by Smith, barely broke a sweat) in the Dubai World Cup this is what the pinnacle of the sport looks like - a magnificent beast crushing all competition.
this was also the first of the 100 point (to the winner) races on the trail, so TS is locked for Churchill if his Irish connections choose to ship. EPICHARIS bagged 50 for his earlier Hyacinth Stakes score, and also has a gate for May 6th pending connections next move, though at this time it appears that they will not be in Kentucky.
jumping off the trail here to tribute the richest purse horse in history, and the greatest of this era - ARROGATE - a brilliant last to first clinic (hand ridden home by Smith, barely broke a sweat) in the Dubai World Cup
this is what the pinnacle of the sport looks like - a magnificent beast crushing all competition.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
couple big races today, but first ...
Jerome and Withers winner EL AREEB joins a host of others on the sideline, will not be running for awhile :(
Futures Pool #4 is up ('til tomorrow for wagers) - the field at 10/1 is the default bet for UNIQUE BELLA, if they decide to run her - PPs here for all listed.
which brings us to the two big preps today, the Florida & Louisiana Derbys
big points up for the taking (100-40-20-10) - place/show horses here, with some points in the bank, just may secure a gate at Churchill, especially with all of the sidelined colts - door is open for some questionable entries, that's for sure.
taking first look at Florida - this is #11 GUNNEVERA's race to lose. not crazy about the outside post at Gulfstream, but he appears to be much the best class here, 9/5 ml suggests a bang down to even money (at best) is in the offing. his last time out was a dominant one, taking the Fountain of Youth with authority. familiar with the track, Castellano on fire atm ... all signs point to Gunny punctuating his prep season with a big score today.
3/1 #9 BATTALION RUNNER (Pletcher) was yanked from this race, and will be shooting for the Wood up here next week.
that leaves 4/1 #4 ALWAYS DREAMING (also Pletcher, outta Bodemeister) as the main competition to Gunny. last time out in a very slow allowance at GP with some of today's company (those looked like Harness fractions ) - hand ridden home, very easy effort . not quite sold on this one, but this may be the right spot for him to make a move.
taking a look at #10 THREE RULES here ... think he can get out on the lead, and has been in this company before - leading the pack turning for home in the aforementioned F.O.Y. if his speed can hold, will hit the exotics ... like the play.
#1 STATE OF HONOR has spent his prep season chasing around the likes of TAPWRIT and McCRACKEN - dueling with both in the TB Derby and the Sam Davis (finishing second and third, respectively) , liking his chances to hit the board, solid play.
PPs for the race here
as for Louisiana Derby, this should be a big win for #8 GIRVIN - took out much of this same company last time out in the Risen Star - UNTRAPPED made a great late move, but is absent today. no excuses this afternoon, he's the cream of a very weak crop down there ... would expect nothing but a couple lengths win. 8/5 ml favorite should be in hand.
would expect #3 LOCAL HERO to be pacesetter, along with #5 MONACO - #6 GUEST SUITE pressing. can't see their speed lasting, which will open the door for #4 SENIOR INVESTMENT to hit the board.
new shooter down there is the Pletcher trained #1 PATCH (Uncle Mo) - only his third start, but hung a 106 bsf in his previous start, an allowance at GP where he had to dig in to overtake a 50/1 shot. 9/2 ml suggests that this field is bereft of any top flight challengers - think this one will get up to finish behind GIRVIN ... who knows, with how off kilter this prep season has been, he just may take this down
could only find PPs for all nominees ... dig through here.
Jerome and Withers winner EL AREEB joins a host of others on the sideline, will not be running for awhile :(
Futures Pool #4 is up ('til tomorrow for wagers) - the field at 10/1 is the default bet for UNIQUE BELLA, if they decide to run her - PPs here for all listed.
which brings us to the two big preps today, the Florida & Louisiana Derbys
big points up for the taking (100-40-20-10) - place/show horses here, with some points in the bank, just may secure a gate at Churchill, especially with all of the sidelined colts - door is open for some questionable entries, that's for sure.
taking first look at Florida - this is #11 GUNNEVERA's race to lose. not crazy about the outside post at Gulfstream, but he appears to be much the best class here, 9/5 ml suggests a bang down to even money (at best) is in the offing. his last time out was a dominant one, taking the Fountain of Youth with authority. familiar with the track, Castellano on fire atm ... all signs point to Gunny punctuating his prep season with a big score today.
3/1 #9 BATTALION RUNNER (Pletcher) was yanked from this race, and will be shooting for the Wood up here next week.
that leaves 4/1 #4 ALWAYS DREAMING (also Pletcher, outta Bodemeister) as the main competition to Gunny. last time out in a very slow allowance at GP with some of today's company (those looked like Harness fractions
) - hand ridden home, very easy effort . not quite sold on this one, but this may be the right spot for him to make a move.taking a look at #10 THREE RULES here ... think he can get out on the lead, and has been in this company before - leading the pack turning for home in the aforementioned F.O.Y. if his speed can hold, will hit the exotics ... like the play.
#1 STATE OF HONOR has spent his prep season chasing around the likes of TAPWRIT and McCRACKEN - dueling with both in the TB Derby and the Sam Davis (finishing second and third, respectively) , liking his chances to hit the board, solid play.
PPs for the race here
as for Louisiana Derby, this should be a big win for #8 GIRVIN - took out much of this same company last time out in the Risen Star - UNTRAPPED made a great late move, but is absent today. no excuses this afternoon, he's the cream of a very weak crop down there ... would expect nothing but a couple lengths win. 8/5 ml favorite should be in hand.
would expect #3 LOCAL HERO to be pacesetter, along with #5 MONACO - #6 GUEST SUITE pressing. can't see their speed lasting, which will open the door for #4 SENIOR INVESTMENT to hit the board.
new shooter down there is the Pletcher trained #1 PATCH (Uncle Mo) - only his third start, but hung a 106 bsf in his previous start, an allowance at GP where he had to dig in to overtake a 50/1 shot. 9/2 ml suggests that this field is bereft of any top flight challengers - think this one will get up to finish behind GIRVIN ... who knows, with how off kilter this prep season has been, he just may take this down
could only find PPs for all nominees ... dig through here.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Like Baffert said after, ""Everybody who was here tonight is going to say, 'I'm glad I was here to see that,'". $17 mil in 7 months - wOw. The jock who didnt come east w him for the Travers gotta be leading the backstretch in forehead slapsumping off the trail here to tribute the richest purse horse in history, and the greatest of this era - ARROGATE - a brilliant last to first clinic (hand ridden home by Smith, barely broke a sweat) in the Dubai World Cup
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Fwiw, the lady that caps Gulfstream for tvg (she's not bad) has Always Dreaming SINGLED on her pick six ticketcouple big races today, but first ...
Jerome and Withers winner EL AREEB joins a host of others on the sideline, will not be running for awhile :(
Futures Pool #4 is up ('til tomorrow for wagers) - the field at 10/1 is the default bet for UNIQUE BELLA, if they decide to run her - PPs here for all listed.
which brings us to the two big preps today, the Florida & Louisiana Derbys
big points up for the taking (100-40-20-10) - place/show horses here, with some points in the bank, just may secure a gate at Churchill, especially with all of the sidelined colts - door is open for some questionable entries, that's for sure.
taking first look at Florida - this is #11 GUNNEVERA's race to lose. not crazy about the outside post at Gulfstream, but he appears to be much the best class here, 9/5 ml suggests a bang down to even money (at best) is in the offing. his last time out was a dominant one, taking the Fountain of Youth with authority. familiar with the track, Castellano on fire atm ... all signs point to Gunny punctuating his prep season with a big score today.
3/1 #9 BATTALION RUNNER (Pletcher) was yanked from this race, and will be shooting for the Wood up here next week.
that leaves 4/1 #4 ALWAYS DREAMING (also Pletcher, outta Bodemeister) as the main competition to Gunny. last time out in a very slow allowance at GP with some of today's company (those looked like Harness fractions
taking a look at #10 THREE RULES here ... think he can get out on the lead, and has been in this company before - leading the pack turning for home in the aforementioned F.O.Y. if his speed can hold, will hit the exotics ... like the play.
#1 STATE OF HONOR has spent his prep season chasing around the likes of TAPWRIT and McCRACKEN - dueling with both in the TB Derby and the Sam Davis (finishing second and third, respectively) , liking his chances to hit the board, solid play.
PPs for the race here
as for Louisiana Derby, this should be a big win for #8 GIRVIN - took out much of this same company last time out in the Risen Star - UNTRAPPED made a great late move, but is absent today. no excuses this afternoon, he's the cream of a very weak crop down there ... would expect nothing but a couple lengths win. 8/5 ml favorite should be in hand.
would expect #3 LOCAL HERO to be pacesetter, along with #5 MONACO - #6 GUEST SUITE pressing. can't see their speed lasting, which will open the door for #4 SENIOR INVESTMENT to hit the board.
new shooter down there is the Pletcher trained #1 PATCH (Uncle Mo) - only his third start, but hung a 106 bsf in his previous start, an allowance at GP where he had to dig in to overtake a 50/1 shot. 9/2 ml suggests that this field is bereft of any top flight challengers - think this one will get up to finish behind GIRVIN ... who knows, with how off kilter this prep season has been, he just may take this down
could only find PPs for all nominees ... dig through here.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
not discounting an upset down there by any of the three i mentioned, especially since Gunny is already locked for Churchill, and may pull back if he hits serious trouble today ... but on form alone, he is the class by a decent margin, imo -
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Yep. I just thought it was interesting that she singled him.
She had the 4, 5, 10 in the first leg (left out the even money fave) they ran 1, 2, 3...But the 10 dead heated with the chalk
Eta: 10 was 12-1
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Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
She had 5 (chalk) and 6 (16-1) in 2nd leg, they ran 1, 2
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
ALWAYS DREAMING looking verrrry smooth and studly in the Florida Derby 
- sat off a decent pace set by THREE RULES, and took the measure turning for home ... was never in doubt, rolling at the wire by a good four lengths to STATE OF HONOR (who will be hitting Churchill, as well).
GUNNEVERA ? dunno wtf was up here ... a mere two seconds into the race and you knew he was not gonna factor at the finish - dove right inside (loafing, at that) from the 10 hole, and spotted everyone a good dozen lengths throughout ... made a late run for show dough, but this was the horse racing equivalent of Jim Caldwell resting his players during Indy's aborted perfect season ... half-a$$ed effort here, perhaps the connections had a hand in this, seeing as how Gunny is a top contender for the Big One
but that's not to take anything away from the winner, though ... that was one hell of a great race he ran - one of the, if not the best prep performance thus far (MASTERY type win here) fastest Fla. Derby since ALYDAR? awesome (blazing fast track yesterday, a couple records fell).
Pletcher pulling another MALAGACY here - both will be hot prospects as they head to Kentucky - gotta say, ALWAYS DREAMING easily looked the better of the two, and will probably go off at high single digit odds (would guess 8/1) come May 6th.
on to Louisiana Derby, where GIRVIN punched his clock, and worked over a very poor field ... had to get a bit busy in the stretch, but this was never gonna be an upset. interesting first half mile or so, where the aptly named #9 HOTFOOT, ran off like his life depended on it - #1 PATCH was the only threat here, and ran himself a nice race, rating the whole way on the inside of the early speed, came up at the wire to tickle GIRVIN's tail - PATCH is another outta the Pletcher barn, and, like the two previously mentioned, is lightly raced, and may be hitting his stride just in time for the KDerby, looked like he had another furlong in him ... his 40 point score may be enough to get him a gate, seeing as how a horse seems to be dropping out each week.
as far as GIRVIN ... he's a very steady, honest runner - tough to gauge the high end prospects for him because he hasn't faced the top flight stakes company the other heavy hitters have, but think he can be a big factor in Kentucky ... not a bad horse to key wheel - he will get his, and i can see him making an honest run for the board.
moving on ...
YUUUUUGE one coming up on Saturday ... the Bluegrass is gonna be stacked - McCRACKEN, TAPWRIT, J BOYS ECHO, IRAP, PRACTICAL JOKE all scheduled to hit the gate at Keeneland ... best prep of the year, by far - can't wait to see that one get underway
- sat off a decent pace set by THREE RULES, and took the measure turning for home ... was never in doubt, rolling at the wire by a good four lengths to STATE OF HONOR (who will be hitting Churchill, as well).GUNNEVERA ? dunno wtf was up here ... a mere two seconds into the race and you knew he was not gonna factor at the finish - dove right inside (loafing, at that) from the 10 hole, and spotted everyone a good dozen lengths throughout ... made a late run for show dough, but this was the horse racing equivalent of Jim Caldwell resting his players during Indy's aborted perfect season ... half-a$$ed effort here, perhaps the connections had a hand in this, seeing as how Gunny is a top contender for the Big One
but that's not to take anything away from the winner, though ... that was one hell of a great race he ran - one of the, if not the best prep performance thus far (MASTERY type win here) fastest Fla. Derby since ALYDAR? awesome
(blazing fast track yesterday, a couple records fell).Pletcher pulling another MALAGACY here - both will be hot prospects as they head to Kentucky - gotta say, ALWAYS DREAMING easily looked the better of the two, and will probably go off at high single digit odds (would guess 8/1) come May 6th.
on to Louisiana Derby, where GIRVIN punched his clock, and worked over a very poor field ... had to get a bit busy in the stretch, but this was never gonna be an upset. interesting first half mile or so, where the aptly named #9 HOTFOOT, ran off like his life depended on it - #1 PATCH was the only threat here, and ran himself a nice race, rating the whole way on the inside of the early speed, came up at the wire to tickle GIRVIN's tail - PATCH is another outta the Pletcher barn, and, like the two previously mentioned, is lightly raced, and may be hitting his stride just in time for the KDerby, looked like he had another furlong in him ... his 40 point score may be enough to get him a gate, seeing as how a horse seems to be dropping out each week.
as far as GIRVIN ... he's a very steady, honest runner - tough to gauge the high end prospects for him because he hasn't faced the top flight stakes company the other heavy hitters have, but think he can be a big factor in Kentucky ... not a bad horse to key wheel - he will get his, and i can see him making an honest run for the board.
moving on ...
YUUUUUGE one coming up on Saturday ... the Bluegrass is gonna be stacked - McCRACKEN, TAPWRIT, J BOYS ECHO, IRAP, PRACTICAL JOKE all scheduled to hit the gate at Keeneland ... best prep of the year, by far - can't wait to see that one get underway
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Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
I thought that girvin was underwhelming and might not be in any of my plays come Derby day
otb_lifer
Footballguy
meh, he did what was needed against a terrible field, and cashed his check for what was essentially a paid workout.
the 1 horse wasn't gonna catch him, Girvin was busy at top of the stretch, but pretty much hand ridden home once he cleared Local Hero - didn't ever feel the urgency from Patch - and, if he really needed the extra gear, it was there ... nice tuneup for May 6th.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
and another one falls off the trail, Unique Bella out indefinitely :(
think she was definitely pointing towards the Oaks, but was still a sliver of hope that she may have tried KDerby - or perhaps the Preakness - if they opted for the Oaks.
regardless, it ####### blows to see another great horse sidelined - this was easily the top filly of the Crop, and one of the best three year olds across the board - top three, imo
think she was definitely pointing towards the Oaks, but was still a sliver of hope that she may have tried KDerby - or perhaps the Preakness - if they opted for the Oaks.
regardless, it ####### blows to see another great horse sidelined - this was easily the top filly of the Crop, and one of the best three year olds across the board - top three, imo
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