Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
JBE has the chops to bust the wire, will be very interesting to see how 'Crack is placed early, seeing as how there is really no 'rabbit' in there ... would expect four across as they turn for home.
but he left an awful hell of a lot on the Kenneland track ... gonna take a huge heart to see him factoring next month. TAPWRIT had a moment, then thought of the Derby ... not dissuaded at all by his showing today.
Yup, paid roughly $250. Decent day.pretty generous $48 balloons return on the buck, hope ya had B.O.M. up in there
whodathunk that a horse coming off his first ever Stakes race - ALWAYS DREAMING- is shaping up to be the favorite at Churchill (think he'll garner a bit more favor than IWC).
I was just about to post something very much like this. Bad year to go all in on one horse, unless it's a longshot.Judge Smails said:
Oh, I'm with you. To date, Funny Cide remains one of my largest payouts and I've tried for years to duplicate that magic at the Derby. Didn't see the post about the speed bias so that's good to know. I have not been paying attention to the prep races at all until now, so I have a TON of catching up to do, although maybe it might benefit me to come in absent a bias, which has hurt me in the past.
Yeah buddies and I always go after the Super (they hit Big Brown before I got involved, later hit Animal Kingdom). Hit last year too but lost money. Think we somehow missed the other chalky ones
all the BOMB payouts seem to have subsided since the points system was instituted ... also factor in dynamic money siphoning colts (Orb, Chrome, AP, Nyquist) who were definitely worthy of the coin they drew at the top of those ex fix.
was the first year i built my exotics as mentioned above, with #13 BLUEGRASS CAT as my key - came up for the exacta under BARBARO ($597, brilliant sneak in payout below 'signer' level), and anchored my tri ($11,000 and change, to #2 STEPPENWOLFER) ... long story short here - left him off my super ticket, made a huge gaffe at the window, had the #12 SWEET NORTHERN SAINT on the tix by accident - yeah, was
and in a hurry, never checked before i left the Meadowlands ... by the time i realized, we were on rt. 120 heading home, too late to hump back to the swamp to correct.
I hate you. So that day I made $1500 on my first play of the day, a $5 tri at Churchill. I liked Barbaro on the win end and I really liked Steppenwolfer and Jazil to clunk up for 3rd and 4th. I was up so I said what the heck - I bet $10 tri's and $5 Supers. The $10 tri's were Barbaro to 5 horses (mostly the California/Baffert horses like AP Warrior, Point Determined, Brother Derek, Bob and John and 1 other), with Steppenwolfer solo in 3rd. $10 tri's. Then the $5 supers were Barbaro/same 5 horses/Steppenwolfer/Jazil. Barbaro wins at 6-1, Steppenwolfer comes in 3rd at 16-1, Jazil deadheats for 4th at 24-1. I liked Bluegrass Cat early on in the trail, but he backed up in his final prep and my rule was to always bet against those. Tri paid $5800 for $1 and Super paid $42K for $1. If I would have had Bluegrass Cat in there it would have been over a quarter million. Swear on a bible true story.otb_lifer said:was the first year i built my exotics as mentioned above, with #13 BLUEGRASS CAT as my key - came up for the exacta under BARBARO ($597, brilliant sneak in payout below 'signer' level), and anchored my tri ($11,000 and change, to #2 STEPPENWOLFER) ... long story short here - left him off my super ticket, made a huge gaffe at the window, had the #12 SWEET NORTHERN SAINT on the tix by accident - yeah, was
was impossible explaining to folks how bagging close to 12 large was actually a ####### loss in the grand scheme of things ... insult to injury was that it was a dead heat for super bottom (LAWYER RON, JAZIL), so it was a dual payout :(
and that makes him a very interesting horse today. a well seasoned three year old, who looks to be finding his way at the right time. in what has been a very strange prep season, wouldn't shock me at all to see him hit the wire first. 
Please don't bring up Giacomo ever again. Thanks
damn, as much as i hate reliving that race myself, it is always a reminder to check tix thrice, and to always go with the gut .... in your case, you played your angle on Bluegrass Cat - suck ### beat, but, yeah ... we are all too familiar with those up in this game :(
howzabout the year ('05) prior? i was all about Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex ... made a nice tri/super box, which included Giacomo on a pure spec ... was so psyched to see him charging home, but, then ... CLOSING #######' ARGUMENT? at 77/1??!? that super paid a shade over $800,000 - can't beat myself up on that one, would've never tossed the second place finisher on my ticket.
aside to that one, was a guy who hung at Tutta Pasta in Hoboken (Danny Aiello's joint) ... he played a super based on birthday/anniversary numbers, and took it down .... $2 cold bet, i believe - x 400,000 R.O.I.
i honestly don't think we'll see that kinda haul again ... pools are so saturated these days, and the chalk horses have been bangin' since the points system came to fruition ... but this Derby has the best potential in recent years. the chalk coming in to this one are all so highly suspect, it's one of those years where any of these are as likely to finish 20th as they are 1st
looks like a NW3 allowance cept the fave - i guess four wks out is the cutoff now for any serious prep....down to Oaklawn, for the last big prep of the season, Derby only three weeks away ...
this race is all about #2 Classic Empire (8/5) ... back from his foot abscess, and geared to roll. one reason to get behind him today is that he is ready to run - read a comment from his assistant trainer while he was sidelined, along the lines of saying that CE is the kinda colt who lets you know when he's good to go ... refused to work for awhile, even though he was apparently healed. balked at the barn, wouldn't set foot outside his stall.
well, now he's back, and worked up to this prep with zero problems. make no mistake, if he's sound and fit, he's the class here, and an easy top five for the big one. but ... if he hits trouble today with that injury flaring up, he's toast ... think Big Brown in the '08 Belmont.
but, ya know what? let's be optimistic for a change, and assume 100% health. ... in that case, he is a ####### bargain at anything over even money. he needs this race, to boot ... last time out in the Holy Bull he chased Irish War Cry for a good 3/4 of the way, and then was dusted, with Gunnevera passing him, as well. needs to run back to his finest hour, the 2016 Breeders Cup Juvy - where he held off a furious rally by Not This Time.
what about Malagacy? i was a big believer in him going in to the Rebel, and picked him to take it down. he didn't disappoint, and that was a perfect spot for Pletcher to introduce him to Stakes company. now, as for today, theory here, with an assist from Gunnevera's Florida Derby debacle - Mal is IN for May 6th, and has the outside (#12) draw, same as Gunny at the FD. how hard do they wanna use this colt today? yeah, the connections want a piece of that purse, of course ... but the future rights to a KD winner will dwarf that of an Ark. Derby winner who left too much on the track to factor in three weeks. but, man ... tough to overlook him here - an expected hot early pace can give him a comfy rating zone, and then he can call on his pop's (Shackleford) cruising speed. a step below CE in class coming in, but capable of taking this by a length or two. the first 1/4 will be crucial to him.
on that note, let's look at last month's Rebel, where Malagacy took command in the stretch - a very slow prep (91 bsf for the winner), and a butchered call by Staufer
in that replay we'll also see today's #3 Silver Dust (20/1), #4 Petrov (12/1), #6 Lookin' At Lee (15/1), #7 Sonneteer (15/1), #9 Untrapped (6/1).
all familiar with this track and company, with Sonneteer rallying up for second at 100/1 odds
i've studied this circuit's preps a lot, and always find a way to pump up Untrapped ... cat just always seems to run his race, and find the board. the most honest horse here, and, if i had to bet my last red cent on ONE horse today to be in the money, it would be him. if you are looking to play exotics, he is a must use. the perfect key horse for this crop.
Petrov is similarly viewed, but i feel a notch below Untrapped. has the chops to factor, but may be over matched by a very deep field.
new shooter down there is #11 Conquest Mo Money, who was an undefeated Sunland juggernaut 'til he ran into Hence last time out. held the lead in that Sunland Derby, then gave way turning for home ... looked to be gassed, but battled back down the stretch, and held for second ... of note, last week's Blue Grass winner, Irap, was fourth here, a good four to five lengths behind Conquest Mo.
what to expect? well, if CE is on, expect a three length win over any combo of Untrapped/ Conquest Mo/Sonneteer/Petrov/Mal (Untrapped in the money).
if CE is off? expect the unexpected, with perhaps even #1 Rockin' Ruby wiring the field
you read, you decide - PPs here
- grazie, wik
been a hell of a prep season, the trail has been one of attrition, rather than the coronations we've seen recently - wide open gig.
outta Midnight Lute (two time BC Sprint Winner), and most of that line has excelled in the shorter distances ... but Unbridled's Song on the Dam line, coupled with Derby winner Real Quiet in the Sire line, suggest that he may be adept at the stretch out.
Christ, I have to sober up and watch these races. Lookin at Lee is the horse I saw zigzagging through traffic, not Sonneteer. I'm going to keep my eye on him as a live longshot if he finds a gate at CD.
That's exactly my take. Hence is my sleeper. I just watched each of the major Derby preps a few times and my opinion is starting to form. There's only 1 horse who could win the Kentucky Derby in a romp. Always Dreaming. That Florida Derby was even better than looked. AD actually checked going into the first turn when a horse was rank and he got shuffled a bit. Still smoothly moved up and rated, then accelerated to blow away the field. Been 1 1/8 miles twice. Out of Bodemeister and looks like him. Hard for me to see him out of the exacta. You can say that was a speed favoring track at Gulfstream. Doesn't matter. He rated perfectly. Never tugged. Push button. Irish War Cry, on the other hand, still seems to be on the bit. He's fast with 2 Beyer's over 100 but I'm not confident he really wants to rate. Rajiv had to really push him down the lane and although he won clear and I really like Graham Motion as a trainer I'm likely throwing him out. He'll face better speed in this race. Classic Empire is a champion for sure. I thought he got a pretty good trip in the Arkansas Derby saving ground (I didn't see the bad trip they were talking about) and then was still pretty all out to beat Conquest Mo, who was bumping with Malagacy and therefore staggering late. Made his closing move look better than it really was, and others were closing with him. I could be wrong. He may move forward but I don't like coming back in 3 weeks. He needed to run Saturday to even get in to the Derby. That wasn't Casse's original plan. They wanted longer than 3 weeks. He'll try hard but I think he comes up empty down the lane. Just feels like a bounce waiting to happen. So I'm tossing him and Irish War Cry. 2 horses that will take a lot of money.Arkansas Derby - see Classic Empire's late charge, Lookin' At Lee's diving in and out like a wasp nest was on him, Sonneteer's roar in the stretch, Conquest Mo's true grit to hold second, the quizzical four wide early move by Smith on Untrapped, and Malagacy giving way to the eventual superfecta ...
btw ... ya know whose stock has been rising while munching on oats and carrots? HENCE, that's who ... blew away Conquest Mo in the Sunland by four, with eventual Blue Grass winner IRAP eight lengths back.
