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***Official Road to the 2017 Breeders Cup*** - GUN RUNNER Romps, Rob Ryan Doppleganger Rejoices! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
if it makes you feel better it would have come in much less with that result...probably 1K tops
JShare87
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Had a $10 exacta box with 1 and 5. When I saw the sloppy track, I took LAL and Sonneteer out to save a few bucks. Cost me $1800 with 3 MTP. I am a f##king moron.
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Chemical X
Footballguy
one of the most boring derbys i can remember. lets get to the rail and follow the bias.
gonna stick to harness. my 2 yr old is almost ready to qualify.
gonna stick to harness. my 2 yr old is almost ready to qualify.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
:(Evilgrin 72 said:
gotdamn, EG ... i recall you being first in after the Ark. Derby commenting on how well LAL and Sonneteer were closing in on CE at the wire - and i'll say mutha#### that LAL drew that ####### rail - had it down to him and Gunny after the preps, but went with my class guy. no regrets, and let's just say the longshot ran one hell of a race.
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Yep. I was out all day and couldn't watch the earlier races. Got home and saw that the track was sloppy and figured it would mean a slower pace and less chance for the deep closers to score. I was spread pretty wide and got gun shy and removed two horses from the box in an attempt to not have my wife castrate me for losing so much money. What an ###hole.
All I had to do was sit on my hands, the bet was in hours earlier. Ugh.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Yep. I was out all day and couldn't watch the earlier races. Got home and saw that the track was sloppy and figured it would mean a slower pace and less chance for the deep closers to score. I was spread pretty wide and got gun shy and removed two horses from the box in an attempt to not have my wife castrate me for losing so much money. What an ###hole.
i hear ya ... had a buddy of mine who i just couldn't sell LAL to - we 'cap together often, and hit the track a few times a month and pool - anyways, he was all in on AD, and would've hit all the way down to the super, for some copious coin ... but i'll be damned if he just totally dismissed LAL (and Gunny as well, for that matter
) - he did cash out some decent balloons on big atb wagers on AD, and definitely came out way ahead, but .... 
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
i'm confused by the static nature of the the track condition thru two days of on/off precip. I've never seen standing water last so long without changing the nature of the surface. Is there no topsoil anymore and that's why the moisture isnt turned in or what? If so, why doesnt it drain better? If i'd known ever-splashy, hard-bottom to be the standard condition of wet dirt courses now i certainly would have gotten off horses more suited to tiring conditions.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
PREAKNESS PROBABLES:
only Derby horse committed thus far is Lookin' At Lee ... the two Big Mo kids - Conquest Mo Money and Royal Mo, are shipping to Bal'more - along with Aqueduct teaser Cloud Computing.
would expect another five (at least), including the winner of last month's Tesio, who was guaranteed a gate with his "win and you're in" score - can't recall his name offhand, but he was a big upset winner, iirc - may have broken his maiden that day.
only Derby horse committed thus far is Lookin' At Lee ... the two Big Mo kids - Conquest Mo Money and Royal Mo, are shipping to Bal'more - along with Aqueduct teaser Cloud Computing.
would expect another five (at least), including the winner of last month's Tesio, who was guaranteed a gate with his "win and you're in" score - can't recall his name offhand, but he was a big upset winner, iirc - may have broken his maiden that day.
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Chemical X
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Derby Post-Mortem, and looking ahead to Pimlico (as per Bloodhorse staff):
Impressive Kentucky Derby winner (G1) Always Dreaming will head to Pimlico Race Course for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, the 142nd Preakness Stakes (G1) May 20.
At 8:10 a.m. ET May 7, Maryland Jockey Club president and general manager Sal Sinatra called Todd Pletcher and formally invited the trainer and the other winning connections of Always Dreaming to continue their Triple Crown dream in the Preakness.
"I congratulated him on winning the race and extended him the traditional invitation to the Preakness, which he accepted," Sinatra said. "We are thrilled to have the Derby winner and he is excited about coming. He's going into the Preakness barn and putting Always Dreaming in stall 40, which is historically reserved for the Derby winner. He said he wanted to keep the mojo going."
Owned by MeB Racing Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, St. Elias Stables, Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Siena Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds, Always Dreaming is scheduled to arrive May 9 following a flight from Kentucky that will also include Preakness contender Royal Mo, trained by John Shirreffs, who was an also eligible in the Derby, but did not draw in.
As many as four other horses from the Derby are considered possible for the Preakness, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. Trainer Steve Asmussen said Lookin at Lee, the runner-up at 33-1, is a candidate. Classic Empire, fourth after being knocked around early in the race, will go to the Preakness if he recovers quickly from an issue with his right eye, trainer Mark Casse said.
More up in the air are Gunnevera and Girvin. Trainer Antonio Sano said a decision will be made about the seventh-place finisher Gunnevera after a discussion with the colt's majority owner, Solomon Del-Valle. Girvin's connections told Churchill Downs officials they would consider the Preakness and Belmont Stakes (G1).
Trainer Kenny McPeek said Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Senior Investment is pointing to the Preakness. Also under consideration are Illinois Derby (G2) winner Multiplier; Cloud Computing, third-place finisher in the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2); and Conquest Mo Money, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Lancaster Bomber is one of two horses Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien is considering for the Preakness. Pletcher is also considering Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Malagacy for the Preakness.
Sinatra said Pletcher requested 12 stalls at Pimlico, which will host 15 stakes, eight graded, worth $3.7 million in purses on a Preakness weekend that kicks off with Black-Eyed Susan Day May 19.
Pletcher said his other two Derby starters—sixth-place finisher Tapwrit and one-eyed horse Patch, who came in 14th—both came out of their efforts none the worse for wear. That duo will head to New York in the next few days, as will most of his runners stabled at Churchill Downs.
One of that bunch, the Kentucky Derby also-eligible Master Plan, was sent out for a work Sunday at Churchill and registered a bullet :48 1/5 on a fast track. The colt's next appearance is scheduled for the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park May 13.
WinStar Farm and Don Alberto Stable's Battle of Midway came out of his third-place finish in good order and will fly back to Southern California on Tuesday, according to Jerry Hollendorfer's assistant Christina Jelm. Hollendorfer told Maryland Jockey Club officials that a Preakness run was highly unlikely.
Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence's Practical Joke will aim for middle-distance races moving forward, said trainer Chad Brown.
Trainer Ian Wilkes said that Whitham Thoroughbreds' McCraken came out of the Kentucky Derby with a small cut on his left hind leg, but otherwise was none the worse for wear Sunday morning.
The son of Ghostzapper will bypass the rest of the Triple Crown and regroup for a summer campaign.
Shirreffs reported that Gormley, the ninth-place finisher in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, was "fine" Sunday morning after his effort. "He tried for us, but of course, we wish he would have been able to do better."
Shirreffs said Gormley would head back to his Southern California base at Santa Anita Park.
Isabelle de Tomaso's Irish War Cry was "just fine" Sunday, the morning after his 10th-place finish the Derby. The Graham Motion-trained colt stalked the pace under Rajiv Maragh before fading through the stretch.
Motion said the New Jersey-bred son of Curlin is likely to skip the Preakness.
"I don't see a lot of reason to go on to the Preakness at this point," Motion said. "He's had a pretty good campaign this spring, so it's likely we'll skip that and make a plan to point for the Haskell (Invitational Stakes, G1)."
Albaugh Family Stable's J Boys Echo settled back into trainer Dale Romans barn following Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
"He's doing just fine. We will give him a few days and make some plans after that," Romans said.
Calumet Farm's Sonneteer remained a maiden following his 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He walked the shedrow of Barn 25 Sunday morning.
"He's good. He just did not like the surface," said Julie Clark, assistant to trainer Keith Desormeaux.
When asked what might be next for him, Desormeaux responded, "How about a maiden race?"
The Midnight Lute colt is scheduled to return to Desormeaux's California base Tuesday.
Kendall Hansen, Skychai Racing, Bode Miller, and Sand Dollar Stable's Fast and Accurate exited his 17th-place effort in the Derby in good shape for trainer Mike Maker. Maker said that he "hadn't spoken to Kendall (Hansen) yet," regarding the possibility of the JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes (G3)-winning son of Hansen returning to turf and synthetic racing this spring and summer.
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Irap recovered from his run in the Derby and was back in Barn 41 on Churchill Downs' backside Sunday morning.
Saturday evening he was a mud-covered mess following an 18th-place finish in the Derby.
"He was caked in mud," assistant trainer Leandro Mora said Sunday morning. "He didn't enjoy what happened at all. I don't think he could see for much of the race. It's hard to be running when you can't see where you're going. I think he just said 'the heck with it.'"
Irap will be sent back to his Southern California base Tuesday and other plans—not including the Preakness—will be hatched for him. Joining him on the flight will be six other horses from trainer Doug O'Neill's contingent that shipped to Louisville.
Godolphin Racing representatives declined comment on Thunder Snow the morning after his truncated appearance in the Derby, when he bucked several times a few strides out of the gate and was pulled up by jockey Christophe Soumillon. State veterinarian Dr. Jennifer Kaak examined the colt in the paddock immediately after the race and found him to have no injuries.
Godolphin released an official statement Saturday night that said: "Thunder Snow walked back to the stables, where he was checked by the vets on course, and initial reports suggest that he appears to be sound. We will closely monitor him over the next 24 hours to ensure that he is OK. Our first priority is his welfare. He worked well all week and we were very happy with his progress. We want to thank everyone for their support this week. We gave it our best. The team was amazing, but it just wasn't to be. Congratulations to the winning horse and the connections of Always Dreaming."
Impressive Kentucky Derby winner (G1) Always Dreaming will head to Pimlico Race Course for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, the 142nd Preakness Stakes (G1) May 20.
At 8:10 a.m. ET May 7, Maryland Jockey Club president and general manager Sal Sinatra called Todd Pletcher and formally invited the trainer and the other winning connections of Always Dreaming to continue their Triple Crown dream in the Preakness.
"I congratulated him on winning the race and extended him the traditional invitation to the Preakness, which he accepted," Sinatra said. "We are thrilled to have the Derby winner and he is excited about coming. He's going into the Preakness barn and putting Always Dreaming in stall 40, which is historically reserved for the Derby winner. He said he wanted to keep the mojo going."
Owned by MeB Racing Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, St. Elias Stables, Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Siena Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds, Always Dreaming is scheduled to arrive May 9 following a flight from Kentucky that will also include Preakness contender Royal Mo, trained by John Shirreffs, who was an also eligible in the Derby, but did not draw in.
As many as four other horses from the Derby are considered possible for the Preakness, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. Trainer Steve Asmussen said Lookin at Lee, the runner-up at 33-1, is a candidate. Classic Empire, fourth after being knocked around early in the race, will go to the Preakness if he recovers quickly from an issue with his right eye, trainer Mark Casse said.
More up in the air are Gunnevera and Girvin. Trainer Antonio Sano said a decision will be made about the seventh-place finisher Gunnevera after a discussion with the colt's majority owner, Solomon Del-Valle. Girvin's connections told Churchill Downs officials they would consider the Preakness and Belmont Stakes (G1).
Trainer Kenny McPeek said Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Senior Investment is pointing to the Preakness. Also under consideration are Illinois Derby (G2) winner Multiplier; Cloud Computing, third-place finisher in the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2); and Conquest Mo Money, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Lancaster Bomber is one of two horses Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien is considering for the Preakness. Pletcher is also considering Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Malagacy for the Preakness.
Sinatra said Pletcher requested 12 stalls at Pimlico, which will host 15 stakes, eight graded, worth $3.7 million in purses on a Preakness weekend that kicks off with Black-Eyed Susan Day May 19.
Pletcher said his other two Derby starters—sixth-place finisher Tapwrit and one-eyed horse Patch, who came in 14th—both came out of their efforts none the worse for wear. That duo will head to New York in the next few days, as will most of his runners stabled at Churchill Downs.
One of that bunch, the Kentucky Derby also-eligible Master Plan, was sent out for a work Sunday at Churchill and registered a bullet :48 1/5 on a fast track. The colt's next appearance is scheduled for the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park May 13.
WinStar Farm and Don Alberto Stable's Battle of Midway came out of his third-place finish in good order and will fly back to Southern California on Tuesday, according to Jerry Hollendorfer's assistant Christina Jelm. Hollendorfer told Maryland Jockey Club officials that a Preakness run was highly unlikely.
Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence's Practical Joke will aim for middle-distance races moving forward, said trainer Chad Brown.
Trainer Ian Wilkes said that Whitham Thoroughbreds' McCraken came out of the Kentucky Derby with a small cut on his left hind leg, but otherwise was none the worse for wear Sunday morning.
The son of Ghostzapper will bypass the rest of the Triple Crown and regroup for a summer campaign.
Shirreffs reported that Gormley, the ninth-place finisher in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, was "fine" Sunday morning after his effort. "He tried for us, but of course, we wish he would have been able to do better."
Shirreffs said Gormley would head back to his Southern California base at Santa Anita Park.
Isabelle de Tomaso's Irish War Cry was "just fine" Sunday, the morning after his 10th-place finish the Derby. The Graham Motion-trained colt stalked the pace under Rajiv Maragh before fading through the stretch.
Motion said the New Jersey-bred son of Curlin is likely to skip the Preakness.
"I don't see a lot of reason to go on to the Preakness at this point," Motion said. "He's had a pretty good campaign this spring, so it's likely we'll skip that and make a plan to point for the Haskell (Invitational Stakes, G1)."
Albaugh Family Stable's J Boys Echo settled back into trainer Dale Romans barn following Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
"He's doing just fine. We will give him a few days and make some plans after that," Romans said.
Calumet Farm's Sonneteer remained a maiden following his 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He walked the shedrow of Barn 25 Sunday morning.
"He's good. He just did not like the surface," said Julie Clark, assistant to trainer Keith Desormeaux.
When asked what might be next for him, Desormeaux responded, "How about a maiden race?"
The Midnight Lute colt is scheduled to return to Desormeaux's California base Tuesday.
Kendall Hansen, Skychai Racing, Bode Miller, and Sand Dollar Stable's Fast and Accurate exited his 17th-place effort in the Derby in good shape for trainer Mike Maker. Maker said that he "hadn't spoken to Kendall (Hansen) yet," regarding the possibility of the JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes (G3)-winning son of Hansen returning to turf and synthetic racing this spring and summer.
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Irap recovered from his run in the Derby and was back in Barn 41 on Churchill Downs' backside Sunday morning.
Saturday evening he was a mud-covered mess following an 18th-place finish in the Derby.
"He was caked in mud," assistant trainer Leandro Mora said Sunday morning. "He didn't enjoy what happened at all. I don't think he could see for much of the race. It's hard to be running when you can't see where you're going. I think he just said 'the heck with it.'"
Irap will be sent back to his Southern California base Tuesday and other plans—not including the Preakness—will be hatched for him. Joining him on the flight will be six other horses from trainer Doug O'Neill's contingent that shipped to Louisville.
Godolphin Racing representatives declined comment on Thunder Snow the morning after his truncated appearance in the Derby, when he bucked several times a few strides out of the gate and was pulled up by jockey Christophe Soumillon. State veterinarian Dr. Jennifer Kaak examined the colt in the paddock immediately after the race and found him to have no injuries.
Godolphin released an official statement Saturday night that said: "Thunder Snow walked back to the stables, where he was checked by the vets on course, and initial reports suggest that he appears to be sound. We will closely monitor him over the next 24 hours to ensure that he is OK. Our first priority is his welfare. He worked well all week and we were very happy with his progress. We want to thank everyone for their support this week. We gave it our best. The team was amazing, but it just wasn't to be. Congratulations to the winning horse and the connections of Always Dreaming."
otb_lifer
Footballguy
he really did, such a formidable run in those conditions
old saying on the rail "if you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral" ... but i don't see any scenario atm where he can be bet against at Pimlico - likely even money morning line, perhaps down to 3/5 come post time.
best case coin scenario is to do a two-fisted bang with a live longshot underneath him for the exacta
need2know
Footballguy
Do you place your bets online? Wheres the best place to go?he really did, such a formidable run in those conditions
old saying on the rail "if you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral" ... but i don't see any scenario atm where he can be bet against at Pimlico - likely even money morning line, perhaps down to 3/5 come post time.
best case coin scenario is to do a two-fisted bang with a live longshot underneath him for the exacta
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i prefer to do in person, will be out at the Meadowlands for the Preakness wagers - my 'capping buddy lives in Carlstadt, stone's throw from the oval
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I prefer Twin Spires but Xpressbet is fine too. TVG an option in some markets as well
a lot of it depends on the state you live in
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i recall a few of the sites were offering nice bonus perks for new customers who were gonna load in for the Derby.
i would think the same would come back around for the Preakness - they have the hook of a potential TC winner who just blew everyone's mind at Churchill - couple AD's allure with possible low prospects coming up for Preakness wagering (casual fans have bailed, more hardcore players may skip due to low R.O.I.) and that's a recipe to toss more bones to punters - this is their prime season, bonuses should be enticing.
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need2know
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Can't really brag about a show bet, but getting $5.80 to show on the winning favorite is something worth mentioning. 20 horse field & 2 longshots underneath helped make it happen.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
nice score, Hoard
and that's damn near triple what you'll ever see his show dough likely pay out again ($2.10 for the foreseeable future).
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes, the problem with missing anything on the Derby (like I usually do), is that the next payoff is always much smaller on the winning horse.nice score, Hoard
Judge Smails
Footballguy
ouchEvilgrin 72 said:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
As big of a fan as I was of Always Dreaming headed into the Derby, and how great he ran, I don't like the horse's chances to win the Triple Crown at all. Matter of fact, he's potentially vulnerable in the Preakness. 2 reasons:
1) Pletcher may have the worst record in horse racing bringing back horses on short rest to big races. Saw the stat but can't find it. He shines with 5+ weeks spacing. Terrible with less.
2) Irish War Cry wiped out a good chuck of the field right out of the gate from the 17 hole in the Derby. Typical Rajiv Maragh stuff. The 8+ horses inside of him lost all position at the start. Not to take anything away from the monster race AD ran, and not an excuse for all but definitely hurt some.Of those Classic Empire ran very well. Got bumped hard, cuts all over his legs, and still ran huge. I'm pretty sure I'm betting Classic Empire straight and a box with Always Dreaming, but if somehow he bounces you can make a big score by leaving him out all together. He'll be 4-5 in Pimlico so you can't bet AD straight anyway.
Irish War Cry veers left to destroy half the field
Maybe he's a special horse and he'll overcome Pletcher's training tendencies but I doubt it. If he wins in Pimlico he's a dead bet against at the Belmont.
1) Pletcher may have the worst record in horse racing bringing back horses on short rest to big races. Saw the stat but can't find it. He shines with 5+ weeks spacing. Terrible with less.
2) Irish War Cry wiped out a good chuck of the field right out of the gate from the 17 hole in the Derby. Typical Rajiv Maragh stuff. The 8+ horses inside of him lost all position at the start. Not to take anything away from the monster race AD ran, and not an excuse for all but definitely hurt some.Of those Classic Empire ran very well. Got bumped hard, cuts all over his legs, and still ran huge. I'm pretty sure I'm betting Classic Empire straight and a box with Always Dreaming, but if somehow he bounces you can make a big score by leaving him out all together. He'll be 4-5 in Pimlico so you can't bet AD straight anyway.
Irish War Cry veers left to destroy half the field
Maybe he's a special horse and he'll overcome Pletcher's training tendencies but I doubt it. If he wins in Pimlico he's a dead bet against at the Belmont.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
i believe AD will be going off at 3/5 come post time ... CE won't be too far behind, maybe down to 2/1 if he trains well - Lookin' At Lee prolly in the 4 or 5/1 range. the horse i will be looking at is Conquest Mo Money, the forgotten second pace finisher in the Arkansas Derby.
speaking of which, it has shown to be the strongest prep of the bunch, as far as what we saw in the Derby, filling out half the Superfecta slots - but now we have CE and LAL trying for the third time in five weeks, and, as was pointed out, CE got roughed up a bit. that's an awful lot to ask, and i'll be damned if CE hasn't won a ton of respect for his last two efforts, but i see Pimlico as a bridge too far for him.
new shooters don't take down the Preakness, but a fresh colt like Conquest Mo can make some noise underneath one of the big guns if they fire back.
on that note, one of the reasons i was anti AD was that the foundation behind the FD score was dodgy ... only two routes prior, and two sprints. he's a lightly raced cat who really hasn't had to do battle, hasn't really been challenged enough since the move to the Pletcher barn to be asked and urged hard. he's about as fit a Derby winner heading into Pimlico as we've seen recently.
ETA: looks like Hence and Gunny are shipping in for this one.
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Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I read somewhere that Pletcher has only ever ran 2 horses back on 2 wks rest in his career. Both beaten by double digits lengthshe really did, such a formidable run in those conditions
old saying on the rail "if you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral" ... but i don't see any scenario atm where he can be bet against at Pimlico - likely even money morning line, perhaps down to 3/5 come post time.
best case coin scenario is to do a two-fisted bang with a live longshot underneath him for the exacta
otb_lifer
Footballguy
he was also 1-43 heading into this Derby, and that one was Super Saver (who is one of the two you reference) ... that horse was nowhere near the beast AD appears to be morphing into
there will be angles against this guy in two weeks to draw coin against, but i'm not quite there yet ...
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Granted, I think Always Dreaming may be the type of horse that can survive anything Pletcher does. He's definitely not been raced too much. And he had as much gas at the end of a 1 1/4 as he did drawing off in the two 1 1/8 races before that. One of the reasons I really liked him. Lookin at Lee made a bold move and if AD would have tired at all he might have caught him.
Nothing I saw would make me doubt AD. But I'd watch clocker reports closely. If any behavior changes appear (less energetic in the morning, lost weight, etc) then he might be vulnerable. In the meantime, I'll find the stat on horses coming back from quick rest with Pletcher. He's a sheets guy and likes his horses to have 4-5 weeks between races to run their best.
I don't pay a lot of attention to Derby stats, as only a few trainers like Baffert and to a lesser extent O'Neill out here in the West have really figured the Derby/Triple Crown races out. A lot of trainers are win once or never in the Derby. Lots of luck involved too unless you have a super horse. So Pletcher throwing a lot of horses that qualify into the Derby to give their owners the experience I don't have a problem with. But coming back on short rest is not just a Derby thing. It's with all of his horses.
That being said, it's just a stat. If the horse trains great leading up to the Preakness he will be tough to beat.
Conquest Mo Money is tough on the front end, but nothing compared to the heat that AD saw in the Derby. He can sit right off and make the same move. The question is whether Classic Empire fires, LAL comes hard again (he got a set up, but made the same move in back to back races so is not to be taken lightly), or if any of the new shooters really fire. Will be interesting..
Nothing I saw would make me doubt AD. But I'd watch clocker reports closely. If any behavior changes appear (less energetic in the morning, lost weight, etc) then he might be vulnerable. In the meantime, I'll find the stat on horses coming back from quick rest with Pletcher. He's a sheets guy and likes his horses to have 4-5 weeks between races to run their best.
I don't pay a lot of attention to Derby stats, as only a few trainers like Baffert and to a lesser extent O'Neill out here in the West have really figured the Derby/Triple Crown races out. A lot of trainers are win once or never in the Derby. Lots of luck involved too unless you have a super horse. So Pletcher throwing a lot of horses that qualify into the Derby to give their owners the experience I don't have a problem with. But coming back on short rest is not just a Derby thing. It's with all of his horses.
That being said, it's just a stat. If the horse trains great leading up to the Preakness he will be tough to beat.
Conquest Mo Money is tough on the front end, but nothing compared to the heat that AD saw in the Derby. He can sit right off and make the same move. The question is whether Classic Empire fires, LAL comes hard again (he got a set up, but made the same move in back to back races so is not to be taken lightly), or if any of the new shooters really fire. Will be interesting..
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
If you were to look back to before the Derby was raced, and had to list your top 2 speed horses, 2 stalkers, and 2 closers, who would you list?
Battle of Midway and State of Honor would be my speed horses, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire would be my stalkers, and Gunny and Looking at Lee would have been my closers. A $1 super box with those 6 horses would have been a great payday.
Just trying to figure out how I could have bet this differently and given myself a better shot.
Battle of Midway and State of Honor would be my speed horses, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire would be my stalkers, and Gunny and Looking at Lee would have been my closers. A $1 super box with those 6 horses would have been a great payday.
Just trying to figure out how I could have bet this differently and given myself a better shot.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Very hard to do. I like your thinking though. The only way I know to play this race is to judge the pace as best as possible and ignore the horses you think (or better yet pedigree suggests) can't get the 1 1/4 regardless of pace. So if a horse backed an inch going 1 1/8 in their last prep - throw them out. The only time this killed me for hundreds of thousands was Bluegrass Cat. Other than that it's been pretty true. If a horse can rate and finish in quality 1 1/8 races they are contenders. And deep closers will benefit from a fast pace usually to clunk up in the exotics. The question is which one (s). Looking at Lee finished best but went off higher because of the dreaded 1 hole. Lanerie road a perfect race on the rail. Don't know if Gunny, Hence and others either came up short, if it was the mud, or Irish War Cry veering in. 3 of the top 4 were totally gettable. I had no idea how Battle of Midway would run. Recent purchase, Hollendorfer, I just had no feel for this horse. I would have had to use all in the 3rd or 4th slot to have him. Can't beat yourself up. Lot of it is luck of the trip.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Zipse with a Verrrrry Early Look at those committed for Pimlico - BIG news is Javi jumpin' off of Gunny to pilot Cloud Computing 
putting Mike Smith in the irons for Gunny at the Preakness ... hmmmm.
as far as the "woulda/shoulda/coulda" on the Derby ... Battle Of Midway was the big surprise, was involved the whole way around - mentioned earlier in the thread as the better 'buzz' horse than the SA Derby winner, Gormley. i used him on my tix, as well as LAL, who, in retrospect, i was actually touting up in here a bit more than Gunny (until my dissertation Saturday morn
) - fatal error keying the wrong colt ... i did wind up using AD on my .50 cent smaller tri bets, but still keyed Gunny :(
majority of races always make much more sense after the fact, ya know? but, again, if it were easy, we'd all be sittin' a lot prettier.
there was great info in here leading up to last Saturday - dunno if anyone cashed a big ticket? gotta think somebody had to have used AD on top of LAL? anyone? Bueller?
oh, and to put a bow on it - a $336 exacta with the favorite on top? yeah, the Derby is the race to dream big and swing for the fences.
putting Mike Smith in the irons for Gunny at the Preakness ... hmmmm.as far as the "woulda/shoulda/coulda" on the Derby ... Battle Of Midway was the big surprise, was involved the whole way around - mentioned earlier in the thread as the better 'buzz' horse than the SA Derby winner, Gormley. i used him on my tix, as well as LAL, who, in retrospect, i was actually touting up in here a bit more than Gunny (until my dissertation Saturday morn
) - fatal error keying the wrong colt ... i did wind up using AD on my .50 cent smaller tri bets, but still keyed Gunny :( majority of races always make much more sense after the fact, ya know? but, again, if it were easy, we'd all be sittin' a lot prettier.
there was great info in here leading up to last Saturday - dunno if anyone cashed a big ticket? gotta think somebody had to have used AD on top of LAL? anyone? Bueller?
oh, and to put a bow on it - a $336 exacta with the favorite on top? yeah, the Derby is the race to dream big and swing for the fences.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Pre-draw odds :
Always Dreaming--4/5
Classic Empire--3/1
Gunnevera--8/1
Looking at Lee--10/1
Hence--15/1
Conquest Mo Money--15/1
Lancaster Bomber--18/1
Cloud Computing--20/1
Multiplier--20/1
Senior Investment--25/1
Term of Art--40/1
Always Dreaming--4/5
Classic Empire--3/1
Gunnevera--8/1
Looking at Lee--10/1
Hence--15/1
Conquest Mo Money--15/1
Lancaster Bomber--18/1
Cloud Computing--20/1
Multiplier--20/1
Senior Investment--25/1
Term of Art--40/1
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Couple ways to play this. If you think Always Dreaming fires his best shot then throw out all other speed or presser types. He will kill them all. Then it's left to a patient rider to stay back, save ground, and pick up the pieces for 2nd. Has happened in the majority of Preakness Stakes lately. Like Cherry Wine last year. That's likely Looking at Lee, Gunnevera or Hence. The majority of Derby horses who run poorly (excuse or not) come back to run poorly again in the Preakness if they run. So while Gunnevera and Hence may have an excuse for the Derby, they could also come back and run nowhere in the Preakness. Looking at Lee has a patient rider who saves ground. I doubt he'll try to go too early like some of the other riders. No reason he couldn't come back again. I think he finishes 2nd or 3rd unless the track is concrete favoring speed types all day.
Or you could say the 2 best horses are clearly AD and Classic Empire. That just won't pay much but I could see it them open lengths the best.
3rd option, which pays the most, is maybe Classic Empire and then throw AD out. Could bounce, have a bad start and then rush, anything could happen. Everything went right in the Derby for him. May not this time. Still the most likely winner as will have less pace to contend with than in Louisville.
Or you could say the 2 best horses are clearly AD and Classic Empire. That just won't pay much but I could see it them open lengths the best.
3rd option, which pays the most, is maybe Classic Empire and then throw AD out. Could bounce, have a bad start and then rush, anything could happen. Everything went right in the Derby for him. May not this time. Still the most likely winner as will have less pace to contend with than in Louisville.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
2017 Preakness Stakes Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
Post
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
1
Multiplier
Joel Rosario
Brendan Walsh
30/1
2
Cloud Computing
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
12/1
3
Hence
Florent Geroux
Steve Asmussen
20/1
4
Always Dreaming
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
4/5
5
Classic Empire
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
3/1
6
Gunnevera
Mike Smith
Antonio Sano
15/1
7
Term Of Art
Jose Ortiz
Doug O'Neill
30/1
8
Senior Investment
Channing Hill
Ken McPeek
30/1
9
Lookin at Lee
Corey Lanerie
Steve Asmussen
10/1
10
Conquest Mo Money
Jorge Carreno
Miguel Hernandez
15/1
the two top dogs draw right on top of each other, mid-pack ... and, as expected, 4/5 and 3/1, respectively.
Conquest Mo gonna hustle out easily for that lead, especially with LAL and Senior Investment on his direct inside think Johnny V can sit right behind him, with CE finding a spot up with them ... maybe Cloud Computing drafting up with those three.
Hence/Gunny/LAL should get a nice pace to close in to.
Conquest Mo is catching my eye, lotta value from that 10 hole, and a very possible uncontested lead.. has the pedigree and class to make some noise - was eligible to be supplemented into the Derby, but connections opted for this one, plunking down 150k to get this guy in - haven't seen him out since his second place finish in the Arkansas Derby
if one is playing any kinda 'bounce' angle on the top two, then i think this is the horse to watch ... fresh and ready to go.
of course, if it all melts down, then the trio i mentioned earlier could conceivably fill the trifecta - still a lot to look at and consider here - have to check the works, and track condition will be my deciding factor come late Saturday afternoon.
but, if looking to make a score to offset Derby losses, then ya gotta go big ... and i'm leaning CMM as 'key' atm.
Post
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
1
Multiplier
Joel Rosario
Brendan Walsh
30/1
2
Cloud Computing
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
12/1
3
Hence
Florent Geroux
Steve Asmussen
20/1
4
Always Dreaming
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
4/5
5
Classic Empire
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
3/1
6
Gunnevera
Mike Smith
Antonio Sano
15/1
7
Term Of Art
Jose Ortiz
Doug O'Neill
30/1
8
Senior Investment
Channing Hill
Ken McPeek
30/1
9
Lookin at Lee
Corey Lanerie
Steve Asmussen
10/1
10
Conquest Mo Money
Jorge Carreno
Miguel Hernandez
15/1
the two top dogs draw right on top of each other, mid-pack ... and, as expected, 4/5 and 3/1, respectively.
Conquest Mo gonna hustle out easily for that lead, especially with LAL and Senior Investment on his direct inside
think Johnny V can sit right behind him, with CE finding a spot up with them ... maybe Cloud Computing drafting up with those three.Hence/Gunny/LAL should get a nice pace to close in to.
Conquest Mo is catching my eye, lotta value from that 10 hole, and a very possible uncontested lead.. has the pedigree and class to make some noise - was eligible to be supplemented into the Derby, but connections opted for this one, plunking down 150k to get this guy in - haven't seen him out since his second place finish in the Arkansas Derby
if one is playing any kinda 'bounce' angle on the top two, then i think this is the horse to watch ... fresh and ready to go.
of course, if it all melts down, then the trio i mentioned earlier could conceivably fill the trifecta - still a lot to look at and consider here - have to check the works, and track condition will be my deciding factor come late Saturday afternoon.
but, if looking to make a score to offset Derby losses, then ya gotta go big ... and i'm leaning CMM as 'key' atm.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I'm expecting Classic Empire to show up huge and move up from his Derby run. He was a short horse in that race. While I think Conquest Mo Money is tough and gritty, if he couldn't beat CE in the Arkansas Derby when CE wasn't even tightened up for that race how's he going to beat him here, going another sixteenth? I can't see CMM on top. Either AD kills him on the front end or CE goes by him. Can have a slot underneath though. If you really like CMM I wouldn't even play around - just play straight win money. Price will be juicy.
I haven't watched videos of any of the new shooters yet. Will do. Someone usually pops up in the tri. Hardest part to figure out is which of the Derby runners will move forward or regress. There will be some of both but it's sort of a crapshoot. They don't do official works in the short 2 weeks, all breezes, so have to get some clocker info re who looks good in the flesh, maintained weight, etc.
I'll take a few shots with value. The AD/CE exacta will be $5. Not going there.
I haven't watched videos of any of the new shooters yet. Will do. Someone usually pops up in the tri. Hardest part to figure out is which of the Derby runners will move forward or regress. There will be some of both but it's sort of a crapshoot. They don't do official works in the short 2 weeks, all breezes, so have to get some clocker info re who looks good in the flesh, maintained weight, etc.
I'll take a few shots with value. The AD/CE exacta will be $5. Not going there.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Agreed across the board. Problem is, I think AD/CE are by far the class of this field. Wouldn't be remotely surprised to see AD-CE-new shooter fill out the tri. I might just key AD-CE on top and play a $56 super box with the field underneath in 3rd/4th and then just hope a couple of longshots fill it out. With this few horses and a lot of other people following similar strategies, I doubt that a super with those two up top would even pay all that much.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
any hope for CMM is that both big guys take a step back (CE third try in five weeks, AD and the Pletcher turnaround, if one wants angles) ... i did say earlier that AD kinda 'idiot proofs' Pletcher's record, but if one wants to toss the chalk and take a swing, there ya go.
don't want ant part of Cloud Computing ... the NY circuit is trash, atm - easiest toss for me.
one could then build an economic key that would deliver generous R.O.I.
no denying AD and CE are the class - but i'd rather pass than bang them as hard as would be needed to generate a decent score to cover KD/Preakness layouts - lookin' to bet a little to win a lot -
don't want ant part of Cloud Computing ... the NY circuit is trash, atm - easiest toss for me.
one could then build an economic key that would deliver generous R.O.I.
no denying AD and CE are the class - but i'd rather pass than bang them as hard as would be needed to generate a decent score to cover KD/Preakness layouts - lookin' to bet a little to win a lot -
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
You'd pretty much have to toss them then. I still believe LAL, Hence, and Gunnevera all have a shot to make hay here but I actually wish LAL and Gunny were skipping this and pointing to Belmont. I'd love their chances at 1 1/2 with a 5-week rest.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
well, yeah ... it's a betting strategy, not necessarily a race analysis. i have X amount of coin left allocated for the next two (donated a very nice chunk to the Derby :( ) - so i need to be economic and take a stab - would blow to outright pass on what i think is gonna be a very entertaining event.
we could see a five figure tri if things go haywire
a lot needs to happen to bring that to fruition - dunno.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
am i right that the outcome pretty much hinges on when CE engages the Derby winner?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
gotta think they sit 2/3 behind CMM - would expect AD to fire first after the anticipated frontrunner - up for grabs at that point ... but if we see a sub 46 half, things could get very interesting behind that lead pack
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