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***Official Road to the 2017 Breeders Cup*** - GUN RUNNER Romps, Rob Ryan Doppleganger Rejoices! (1 Viewer)

otb_lifer said:
any hope for CMM is that both big guys take a step back (CE third try in five weeks, AD and the Pletcher turnaround, if one wants angles) ... i did say earlier that AD kinda 'idiot proofs' Pletcher's record, but if one wants to toss the chalk and take a swing, there ya go. 

don't want ant part of Cloud Computing ... the NY circuit is trash, atm - easiest toss for me. 

one could then build an economic key that would deliver generous R.O.I. 

no denying AD and CE are the class - but i'd rather pass than bang them as hard as would be needed to generate a decent score to cover KD/Preakness layouts - lookin' to bet a little to win a lot - 
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Like I said, CMM is gritty.  He fights in the stretch.  Has tactical speed, but can rate.  Wouldn't at all be surprised to see him run well and run 2nd or 3rd.  I just can't see him on the win end.  But ya never know..

 
HRN gives us a  look at the mornings - and some buzz from connections.  note on this, from all the reports i'm perusing, it seems as if AD is fresh and full of energy, impressing everyone keeping an eye on him ... who knows, maybe those facacta workouts at Churchill were just a by-product of this cat  just wanting to be let the #### loose!   :shrug:

Haskins with an in depth look ... gotta hand it to this guy, he was the first to tout AD as the Derby horse to beat, and had him atop his 'Derby Dozen' for quite awhile - started harping on about AD a few weeks prior to the Florida Derby.   kinda concerned that he is hot on Cloud Computing (who has looked great at Pimlico, and picks up Gunny defector Javi), inasmuch that it's awfully tough for me to toss coin at any horse in a Gr.1 who arrived via the C Train (Aqueduct)  :X   ... also advises keepin' an eye on Multiplier  :coffee:

Privman  with more glowing words for AD, and scroll down for Beer/Bernier/Illman, breaking it all down in a 14 minute vid (with even more CC love).

 
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I think I'm 0 for 10,000 in trying to key the heavy chalk to win and try to get some big hits under.  

I keep telling myself the play when you are pretty damn sure the chalk is gonna cruise is to just pretend the place is the ticket to bet and start from there.

I doubt I'll listen to myself and shoot the moon.  

 
Just for fun I'm throwing in a 30-1 shot underneath. #1 Multiplier is cheap & lightly raced but has the rail and has never not gained ground in the stretch.

 
anyone catching today's card? weather holding up? - 40% chance of rain forecast for today. 

looks like Pletcher has another AD type ready to go in the BES - #7 Moana making her third career start - outta Uncle Mo and ready to roll ... great post draw, and flashing very impressive tactical speed. 

temps approaching 90 today, but expected to cool off quite a bit (mid 60s) for tomorrow's Preakness. 

 
otb_lifer said:
anyone catching today's card? weather holding up? - 40% chance of rain forecast for today. 

looks like Pletcher has another AD type ready to go in the BES - #7 Moana making her third career start - outta Uncle Mo and ready to roll ... great post draw, and flashing very impressive tactical speed. 

temps approaching 90 today, but expected to cool off quite a bit (mid 60s) for tomorrow's Preakness. 
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dry / fast / firm so far

http://www.preakness.com/race-info/xbtv-live

 
just secured a BES/Preakness double wager - playing the #7/#6, #9

hoping for some bingo on a pace meltdown tmrw.  ahhh, back to the Gunny/LAL well it is. 

#### it  :thumbup:

 
otb_lifer said:
just secured a BES/Preakness double wager - playing the #7/#6, #9

hoping for some bingo on a pace meltdown tmrw.  ahhh, back to the Gunny/LAL well it is. 

#### it  :thumbup:
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Why aren't any of the Oaks runners in the BES?

Will probably pass the Preakness altogether.  I think we're seeing another potential TC winner in AD, so I won't play that if I truly feel it and I do.  Best comparison for me here is Barbaro, though I hope to god AD doesn't rear up and end his career tomorrow.  If I was swimming in extra cash and childless, I might put Conquest Mo on the bottom of an exacta wheel.  Meh.

 
General Malaise said:
Why aren't any of the Oaks runners in the BES?

Will probably pass the Preakness altogether.  I think we're seeing another potential TC winner in AD, so I won't play that if I truly feel it and I do.  Best comparison for me here is Barbaro, though I hope to god AD doesn't rear up and end his career tomorrow.  If I was swimming in extra cash and childless, I might put Conquest Mo on the bottom of an exacta wheel.  Meh.
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agree on the Preakness for the most part ... think Johnny V is too smart to gun, and he knows to rate this beast back - CMM is in win or finish 10th mode the more i look at this ...if the fractions get too hot, he's gonna get swallowed. 

puncher's chance to steal it on the lead, though  :boxing:  if AD & CE step back. 

 
I can see why some like GM would pass on the race.  To make any money at all you'd have to bet against the AD/CE exacta combo.  I'm going to try and throw out a few horses and then figure it out from there.  Horses I'm throwing out:

2) Cloud Computing - Always hated horses with just NY (especially AQ) experience and of the presser types he's just not good enough to beat AD or CMM.

3) Hence - I really liked him coming into the Derby and had him as 1 of the 2 likely winners with AD.  He did get a brutal trip like half the field and didn't like the mud, but I can't bet any horse with a 51 and 3 work - dead last of the day.  Breezing or not, that just doesn't inspire confidence.s 

6) Gunnevera - would be an easier toss with any other jockey than Mike Smith on, but I hated his last work before the Derby (103 and 3 - 35th out of 35 for the day) and just get the feeling he's over the top.

7) Term of Art - O'Neill makes me nervous, but bottom line is this horse has never competed at all vs good company

8) Senior Investment - Never cracked 90, not as good as these

That leaves 1 - Multiplier, 4 - Always Dreaming, 5- Classic Empire, 9 - Looking at Lee, 10 - Conquest Mo Money

Of these I like Looking at Lee the least.  Just don't think he'll get the same pace or trip.  Starts from the outside which isn't ideal for a dead closer.  I may toss him.

So the way the race should unfold is Conquest Mo Money and Always Dreaming pressing but rating somewhat.  The key to the race is how early Classic Empire goes.  I don't know if he's good enough, but he should make a menacing move.  Pretty sure those 3 will be the one's in contention at the top of the lane.  The horse that can make you some money IMO is Multiplier.  Beyers increased from 71, 76, 83 to 94, and he has closed in the stretch in every single race.  Joel Rosario gets on.  I'm thinking he gets a dream trip from the rail and will be closing.  Walsh gave him a nice minute and 4 breeze and he's had a month between starts.  I like him in the tri and super.  Can't beat AD or CE, but can get second if either of them misfires. I'll probably play a bigger exacta with AD on top of Multiplier, a smaller one with CE to him, and then tri's and supers using AD and CE on top with those 2, Multiplier and Conquest Mo Money in the 2-4 slots.  

I was ice cold today so who knows it may come off completely different, but that's how I see it reading the Form tonight.  AD will be very tough to beat.  Good luck everyone! 

 
otb_lifer said:
HRN gives us a  look at the mornings - and some buzz from connections.  note on this, from all the reports i'm perusing, it seems as if AD is fresh and full of energy, impressing everyone keeping an eye on him ... who knows, maybe those facacta workouts at Churchill were just a by-product of this cat  just wanting to be let the #### loose!   :shrug:

Haskins with an in depth look ... gotta hand it to this guy, he was the first to tout AD as the Derby horse to beat, and had him atop his 'Derby Dozen' for quite awhile - started harping on about AD a few weeks prior to the Florida Derby.   kinda concerned that he is hot on Cloud Computing (who has looked great at Pimlico, and picks up Gunny defector Javi), inasmuch that it's awfully tough for me to toss coin at any horse in a Gr.1 who arrived via the C Train (Aqueduct)  :X   ... also advises keepin' an eye on Multiplier  :coffee:

Privman  with more glowing words for AD, and scroll down for Beer/Bernier/Illman, breaking it all down in a 14 minute vid (with even more CC love).
Click to expand...

 
Ok, didn't see that coming.  Of course Javier Castellano is probably the best jockey out there at this point.  

 
Redwes25 said:
Ok, didn't see that coming.  Of course Javier Castellano is probably the best jockey out there at this point.  
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CC was heavily touted in those links i posted Friday  - the ol'  "he's stittin' on a BIG one" schtick came to fruition  :shrug:

was happily in the bag last night :banned: , have yet to review the race sober - had LAL key-boxed with the field in the tri - don't have the hangover stomach to watch my dollars get lit on fire atm

:ptts:

 
wasn't really looking to handicap this one, but i was surprised when y'all seemed to think the 1 would go out. i expressed above my worry of a long hookup between the two faves but got no idea from the Kentucky Slurpy which of the late runners would be the one to pick em up. now i know why....

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
I read somewhere that Pletcher has only ever ran 2 horses back on 2 wks rest in his career. Both beaten by double digits lengths
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Good call on this one. Most stats I am wary of, but in a sport where you can usually make your own schedule, winning one or two of these TC races puts you in a position where you almost have to keep running them, even if 2 or 3 weeks is far less than the 4 or 5 you may prefer ( KD winner had 5 weeks off & Preakness winner had 6). Some trainers are able to overcome this but it can even catch up a HOF trainer like Pletcher.

 
Looking at Lee looks like great value here.  He had run left in the derby and was respectable in the Preakness.  Has the stamina for the marathon that is the Belmont.

 
My thought going into the Derby was that none of these horses were dominant and can take turns beating each other.

I hit the exacta in the Derby.  I did not see Cloud Computing at all in the Preakness.

I'll look for a longshot in the Derby. None of them have ever gone a mile and a half. It's especially tough after a couple of grueling races in a relatively short amount of time.

I'll pass on Classic Empire. That pace in the Preakness was silly. They could have easily slowed it down. Anyway, I see the distance and the grueling schedule not boding well for Classic Empire.

Looking at Lee likes the distance, but is coming off those two races. I thought Looking at Lee would have been better off skipping the Preakness and going to the Belmont, but it's hard to pass on it after finishing second.

I'll look for someone fresh.

 
both C.E. and LAL will be trying for the fourth time in eight weeks ... those two have been as game as they come thus far, but will be very hard pressed to stick around for coin here, imo.

looking at EPICHARIS and my old buddy TAPWRIT (6th in KD) - those two will be presenting some nice value and are serious contenders to take this one down. 

IWC, JBE, IRAP, PATCH - yeah, no thanks on any of those.

meh, two weeks to fire my juices back up - it's been a looong run up in here.

 
Anyone still thinking about playing Belmont?

7 - Irish War Cry  3-1

11 - Epicharis 7-2

6 - Lookin at Lee 9-2

2 - Tapwrit 7-1

3 - Gormley 8-1

8 - Senior Investment 10-1

9 - Meantime 15-1

4 - J Boys Echo 15-1

1 - Twisted Tom 18-1

10 - Multiplier 20-1

12 - Patch 30-1

5 - Hollywood Handsome 40-1

 
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Super-quick analysis from a complete hump:

Irish War Cry - which horse will show up?  Probably the most talented horse in this field, but will he run straight?  Does he want the distance?  Not thrilled with 3-1, but that's better than...

Epicharis - 7-2 is way too short for my blood.  Shipping in from Japan?  Intriguing, but international horses make my sphincter tighten in TC races and 7-2 is way too light for me to dip my pen in this ink.

Lookin At Lee - I love this horse, as documented here.  However, I hate the fact that this is the only horse in the field (I think) that ran both at Churchill and Pimlico.  Does he have anything left?

Tapwrit - Intriguing at 7-1.  I like the horse, I like the style.  Will play.

Gormley -  I just don't know what to make of him.  I'm not a huge fan, likely toss unless someone talks me into including him on exotics.

Senior Investment - tossed immediately in the Preakness, to my own dismay.  Seems to have some pedigree for distance, will consider.

Meantime - someone tell me why I should put any $ on this horse.  Early speed, should burn out and fade.  Can't see this horse wiring the field.

J Boys Echo - Hasn't showed much since that "fluke" prep win, but maybe has the style to be a factor here at a decent price.  Will consider.

Twisted Tom - Has this horse ever raced against any horses in the class of these?  Combined with the rail post draw, not a ton to like here.

Multiplier - #### this horse.  Played fairly heavily at Pimlico and he #### the bed.  Both sire and dam were sprinters.  Not worth a damn.  #### you.

Patch - would seem an easy toss, but comes from Union Rags, who spit the bit in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, then won Belmont.  Not that this is much to sell you on this horse, but might be worth a flier at 30-1.

Hollywood Handsome - 40-1 is nice, but has never raced anything close to this class.

 
Closers usually dont do that we'll in the Belmont.   Anyway I'm gonna be camping but will try to watch on my phone 

May just take a small flier on Patch to win

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anyone still thinking about playing Belmont?
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Used to be my favorite week of the year. In the late 80s,early 90s, one of my choreographer cousins usually had a show up for some Tony awards (usually the same wkend as the Belmont) and my ability to beat Belmont's turf course in the pre-database days was what began my trail as a professional gambler, so me & my Scary Mary (one conversation between her & Liza Minelli may be the funnest i ever heard) always took the week and did the City right. Paid for it @ the tote at least half the time, too. Those were the days, #####es!!

ETA: And Balcony Belmont fits my olboy Tapwrit to a T!

 
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I'm thinking pie-in-the-sky EX or TRI box for me.  I only have a few bux left in my horse betting account after the carnage that was the Preakness and I'm not re-loading.  Going to need to narrow it down to 3-4 horses and just shoot for the stars.  Either cash a nice ticket and reserve that revenue for Breeder's Cup or go bust and just lick my wounds until November.

 
Cloud Computing is the horse that pushed me into permanent* retirement.  Good luck to the rest of you players out there, I no longer have a feel for the sport of kings.  

*Permanent until the BC

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Super-quick analysis from a complete hump:

Irish War Cry - which horse will show up?  Probably the most talented horse in this field, but will he run straight?  Does he want the distance?  Not thrilled with 3-1, but that's better than...

Epicharis - 7-2 is way too short for my blood.  Shipping in from Japan?  Intriguing, but international horses make my sphincter tighten in TC races and 7-2 is way too light for me to dip my pen in this ink.

Lookin At Lee - I love this horse, as documented here.  However, I hate the fact that this is the only horse in the field (I think) that ran both at Churchill and Pimlico.  Does he have anything left?

Tapwrit - Intriguing at 7-1.  I like the horse, I like the style.  Will play.

Gormley -  I just don't know what to make of him.  I'm not a huge fan, likely toss unless someone talks me into including him on exotics.

Senior Investment - tossed immediately in the Preakness, to my own dismay.  Seems to have some pedigree for distance, will consider.

Meantime - someone tell me why I should put any $ on this horse.  Early speed, should burn out and fade.  Can't see this horse wiring the field.

J Boys Echo - Hasn't showed much since that "fluke" prep win, but maybe has the style to be a factor here at a decent price.  Will consider.

Twisted Tom - Has this horse ever raced against any horses in the class of these?  Combined with the rail post draw, not a ton to like here.

Multiplier - #### this horse.  Played fairly heavily at Pimlico and he #### the bed.  Both sire and dam were sprinters.  Not worth a damn.  #### you.

Patch - would seem an easy toss, but comes from Union Rags, who spit the bit in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, then won Belmont.  Not that this is much to sell you on this horse, but might be worth a flier at 30-1.

Hollywood Handsome - 40-1 is nice, but has never raced anything close to this class.
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Hi GB, if you are going to put down some coin on this race then I suggest you look at the trainers and jockey's for this race and do the breakdown there as well. Yeah...I'm way too lazy to do that...

 
I enjoy the quality of races for Breeders Cup but man those are tough races to cap.  After a few years of getting my ### kicked I usually lay off of the undercard and just make a token bet on the classic 

 
still lookin' at Tapwrit and Epicharis - may just box on the exacta for this one, lest i key Tap in a small tri box

 
otb_lifer said:
still lookin' at Tapwrit and Epicharis - may just box on the exacta for this one, lest i key Tap in a small tri box
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No concerns with Epicharis pulling up lame after workout Wednesday?  Rumor I heard is that he may scratch, but that could be outdated...

 
otb_lifer said:
:(

good lookin' out, EG

i have been so lax it flew right by me. 

sonofa-
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Pissing me off because even if he does run, the odds are likely to go through the roof.  Last reports I'm seeing are saying they still intend to run him, but I was planning on fading him regardless, so I was more than happy to see him draw the second-most money and go off at 4-1 or 5-1.  No chance that happens now.  Irish War Cry and Tapwrit are going to be even shorter odds now.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Pissing me off because even if he does run, the odds are likely to go through the roof.  Last reports I'm seeing are saying they still intend to run him, but I was planning on fading him regardless, so I was more than happy to see him draw the second-most money and go off at 4-1 or 5-1.  No chance that happens now.  Irish War Cry and Tapwrit are going to be even shorter odds now.
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if IWC hits the board at 10 panels i will eat my ####### Belmont program  :excited:

then again, i am down close to 4 figures through the first two legs ...

 
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