a_troll00
Footballguy
I purposely avoided all QBs with a week 5 bye. My squad has too many other players on bye that week as it is.2 rbs1 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 DSTWeek 5 is gonna be a bumpy one.
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Pyscho Wife
Footballguy
What was the cutoff for week 1 or was there no cutoff the 1st week?
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
54th in the simulation and 46th in the power rank!
PatsChowder
Footballguy
I know everyone is worrying about the week 5 bye, but I think week 8 will be more critical. Not only are there some substantial fantasy players that will be lost, but it's later in the season and more difficult to make the cut. The only saving grace is that there are 6 teams on the bye and more players will be out of action.
Week 8 Byes: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, New England, Washington, and Tampa Bay
For me, that means I'll be losing Tom Brady, Sammy Morris, Willie Parker, Chris Cooley, and one of my two kickers. It's definitely my most substantial bye, but I tried to counter it with making sure all of my receivers were available along with 2 steady RBs, and a capable back up to Cooley (Owen Daniels).
Here's to hoping Mark Sanchez still has his rookie magic working.
Week 8 Byes: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, New England, Washington, and Tampa Bay
For me, that means I'll be losing Tom Brady, Sammy Morris, Willie Parker, Chris Cooley, and one of my two kickers. It's definitely my most substantial bye, but I tried to counter it with making sure all of my receivers were available along with 2 steady RBs, and a capable back up to Cooley (Owen Daniels).
Here's to hoping Mark Sanchez still has his rookie magic working.
Here is some random stat-dorkery from the simulator.
In week 1, the average difference between the the simulator's score projection for a given team and that team's actual score was about 4. In other words, across the entire 13,200+ team sample, we on average overprojected each team by about four points.
[The standard deviation of the differences between projected and actual scores, if you're into that kind of thing, was about 22.]
In week 1, the average difference between the the simulator's score projection for a given team and that team's actual score was about 4. In other words, across the entire 13,200+ team sample, we on average overprojected each team by about four points.
[The standard deviation of the differences between projected and actual scores, if you're into that kind of thing, was about 22.]
Short Corner
Footballguy
I was definitely wary of the steeper cut percentages in the later bye weeks this year.
YoUnG GuNz
Footballguy
The week 5 bye is going to hit me the hadest. I'm losing Jennings, Sproles, Vjax, and Finley.
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
FWIW, this week's cut is the biggest cut % until week 6. It should have the highest cut line value of the year until probably week 7 or 8, depending on how NFL scoring goes. Weeks 6-8 would be theoretically higher, but should get pushed down due to the bye week situations. Based on the Doug's weekly simulator, looks like it should be around 132 or so this week...
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Cantonese32
Footballguy
2 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
2 Members: Cantonese32, Doug Drinen
2 Members: Cantonese32, Doug Drinen
More nonsense....
Here are the week 2 average estimated survival rates of teams with a given player.
An average team would have an 83.33% chance of survival this week. (that's 10,000 / 12,000.) But teams with Dallas Clark have an 88.6% chance on average (as estimated by my obviously-not-perfect simulator). On the bad end, teams with Tomlinson figure to advance at only a 71.7% clip.
Here are the week 2 average estimated survival rates of teams with a given player.
An average team would have an 83.33% chance of survival this week. (that's 10,000 / 12,000.) But teams with Dallas Clark have an 88.6% chance on average (as estimated by my obviously-not-perfect simulator). On the bad end, teams with Tomlinson figure to advance at only a 71.7% clip.
Code:
avg surv teams prob--------------------------------Dallas Clark 1249 88.6Laurent Robinson 1711 88.5DeAngelo Williams 2342 87.1Derrick Mason 2685 87.0Nate Burleson 2037 87.0Byron Leftwich 1961 86.8Isaac Bruce 914 86.8Justin Gage 985 86.5John Carlson 1279 86.5Leon Washington 2715 86.5Zach Miller 727 86.5Reggie Wayne 919 86.4Aaron Rodgers 3601 86.3Ahmad Bradshaw 2553 86.3Ryan Grant 3785 86.3...Knowshon Moreno 310 76.6Patrick Turner 166 76.5Reggie Bush 127 76.5Steve Johnson 142 76.3Sage Rosenfels 24 76.2Dexter Jackson 202 76.2Domenik Hixon 209 76.1L.J. Smith 57 76.0Luke McCown 11 76.0Maurice Morris 34 75.9Chauncey Washington 60 75.9Michael Crabtree 177 75.7Brian Robiskie 117 75.7Keenan Burton 17 75.3Kenny Watson 130 75.3Desmond Clark 246 75.3Donovan McNabb 554 75.0Plaxico Burress 25 74.3Lavelle Hawkins 5 74.2Anthony Gonzalez 1049 74.1Pierre Thomas 356 71.8LaDainian Tomlinson 908 71.7
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Simulations and power rankings are based off someone's subjective projections. That's why they PLAY the game. Real games do not always follow the predicted script.
apalmer
Footballguy
Maybe theoretically, but last years cuts were: 112.85 132.60 133.60 138.70 122.20 139.65 121.30 138.55 135.10 153.00 162.95 Weeks 3, 4, 6 and 8 all had higher numbers than Week2 . Could have been attributable to unusually high NFL scoring, I guess.
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
Really depends on the scoring of the NFL in general, but as the % cut rises and falls, the cut point value should track it. There should also be a point swing associated with the amount of active players too, making bye week inactives drop the score. I'm sure the real scores will be all over the place, but in theory, this should be the hardest week for a while...
ctriopelle
Footballguy
For anyone that has missed prior posts, thefantasystar.com is working again for live contest scoring updates. As with last year, the scoring isn't a "perfect" replication, as the scoring service used does not report negative yardage. OC and I tried to work out the rest of the scoring glitches we found last week (like MJD and Steven Jackson not reporting scores), but there may be some issues with DEF right now too. I'll try to check out the accuracy this week as the scoring finalizes. Head on over and see how easy it is to get your full team updates live!
We will also be posting the "current" cut line approximation (NOT the final estimate projection, just where it is based on the present scores), just as we did last year. I expect to make cut line updates near the conclusion of each block of games, depending on my availability. If I am available, I will also plan on providing more frequent cut updates during MNF games, but I can't promise that. We hope to improve the accuracy of estimate this year, but it still will have some amount of error. OC and I will continue to work to improve the database in this regard, but it still should do a great job of letting you know about where you stand prior to the Turk posting the official results...
We will also be posting the "current" cut line approximation (NOT the final estimate projection, just where it is based on the present scores), just as we did last year. I expect to make cut line updates near the conclusion of each block of games, depending on my availability. If I am available, I will also plan on providing more frequent cut updates during MNF games, but I can't promise that. We hope to improve the accuracy of estimate this year, but it still will have some amount of error. OC and I will continue to work to improve the database in this regard, but it still should do a great job of letting you know about where you stand prior to the Turk posting the official results...
Das Boot
Footballguy
Last year I was able to avoid the injury bug all year, which to a large degree is just a matter of luck.
So far this year, Hakeem Nicks is out for a few weeks already, and now today Jamaal Charles is inactive - reason currently unknown.
Luckily they are both just depth players for my team, but I still don't like having 2 bullets missing already.
LT owners, you have my sympathy.
So far this year, Hakeem Nicks is out for a few weeks already, and now today Jamaal Charles is inactive - reason currently unknown.
Luckily they are both just depth players for my team, but I still don't like having 2 bullets missing already.
LT owners, you have my sympathy.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
thefantasystar.comhave your team ID number handy...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Randy Moss, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester, Derrick Mason, H.Nicks, P.Crayton...I'm running out of bullets quickly.
Thank you sir
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I need surprise nights from Bradhsaw and Felix, I don't see it really happening.
Gonna be some fairly loaded or stacked teams that get elminiated this week.
Gonna be some fairly loaded or stacked teams that get elminiated this week.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
I forgot I had some issues with last week's scoring I needed to clean up. Once I am confident I have the dead teams out from last week I can start working on today's numbers. Probably won't happen until sometime during the night game tho...
Comer
Footballguy
Make sure the cut is at 130
Balco
Footballguy
Looks like I am at 145.5. Hopefully that is enough, I really had to get contributions from unlikely sources this week - i.e. Laurent Robinson, Correll Buckhalter. I am liking my team less and less, especially WR. Mason and MArk Bradley have been huge dissapointments, and Bradley put up a goose egg this week. Not helpful with Schillens on the sideline.
NFL Sunday Ticket
Footballguy
im hoping with some of the bigger names being somewhat disappointing this week that the cut number might be a little lower. im sitting at 125.25 without too much hope of moving up much. i think the guesstimate of 132 is out of my reach.....
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Really? I was wondering what the word 'simulator' meant.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
I hope Brees and Chris Johnson scored enough because the rest of my team pulled eggs.
YoUnG GuNz
Footballguy
Im at 182.20. I'm thinking that puts me somewhere in the top 500-1000 and that's without getting anything from my top 3 money value guys, Slaton, Westbrook, and Jennings.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Click on the Wk1 column header and it will correctly recalculate the score.
YoUnG GuNz
Footballguy
I have Vjax and Sproles as well. Both were absolute bargains.166.3 with Pennington (-10.0) and Kevin Boss (-8.6) to go, onward to week 3.Sproles and VJax have been $$$$$$ so far, big props to the Saints DST as well!
firstseason1988
Footballguy
I have Sproles, I had Vjax for a while probaly in about 300 of my 400 combinations, but not the final one.I have Vjax and Sproles as well. Both were absolute bargains.166.3 with Pennington (-10.0) and Kevin Boss (-8.6) to go, onward to week 3.Sproles and VJax have been $$$$$$ so far, big props to the Saints DST as well!
firstseason1988
Footballguy
198.1
movin on fools.
I'll take it.
My WRs are going to kill me at some point.
QB - Peyton Manning - 32
QB - Mark Sanchez - 9
QB - Byron Leftwich - 4
RB - Frank Gore - 43
RB - Brian Westbrook - 34
RB - Fred Jackson - 14
RB - Darren Sproles - 13
RB - LeSean McCoy - 7
RB - Glen Coffee - 2
RB - Edgerrin James - 1
RB - Chris Brown - 1
WR - Braylon Edwards - 28
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Robert Meachem - 3
WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 10
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
PK - Kris Brown - 3
PK - Matt Prater - 2
TD - Baltimore Ravens - 6
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 1
movin on fools.
I'll take it.
My WRs are going to kill me at some point.
QB - Peyton Manning - 32
QB - Mark Sanchez - 9
QB - Byron Leftwich - 4
RB - Frank Gore - 43
RB - Brian Westbrook - 34
RB - Fred Jackson - 14
RB - Darren Sproles - 13
RB - LeSean McCoy - 7
RB - Glen Coffee - 2
RB - Edgerrin James - 1
RB - Chris Brown - 1
WR - Braylon Edwards - 28
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Robert Meachem - 3
WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 10
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
PK - Kris Brown - 3
PK - Matt Prater - 2
TD - Baltimore Ravens - 6
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 1
ctriopelle
Footballguy
EXTREME approximation at this point, but if the games were all complete right now, the cut would be right around120. Obviously it will go higher with players yet to go, how much depends on how popular they are. Last year, my recollection is that the MNF game drove things up about 2-10 points in most instances. not sure what the impact was on SNF, because we never had a good way to measure it accurately.I'm still dealing with bugs, so I may have problems giving an accurate count after the game tonight. If you own MoJo, Steven Jax, Garcon, you may not have a score by their name. Any player going for negative yards (typically kneeling QB's and WR's running reverses), you may want to check those player scores on your own, since the stats won't account for that, but this shouldn't impact you much more than 0.5 points at most. There was also a problem with DEF scoring last week, so you may want to calc that on your own. I'll work to get things smoother tonight, but no promises...Make sure the cut is at 130
Mostly done except Witten myself (full score), just over 172 for a total...see 9999 of the rest of you next week!
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
Why can't I find the link to my team?
tomarken
Footballguy
You think this guy is pissed he got eliminated in week one?
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2009/103505.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2009/103505.php
Das Boot
Footballguy
He would have scored a bunch this week, but he had a dead team walking anyway with only 4 WRs.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
156.70
My RBs are killing me.
QB - Donovan McNabb - 24
QB - David Garrard - 18
QB - Byron Leftwich - 4
RB - Steve Slaton - 37
RB - Willie Parker - 16
RB - Leon Washington - 12
RB - Michael Bush - 6
RB - Sammy Morris - 4
RB - James Davis - 2
WR - Roddy White - 33
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Chris Henry - 12
WR - Derrick Mason - 9
WR - Nate Burleson - 5
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Patrick Crayton - 4
TE - John Carlson - 11
TE - Brent Celek - 7
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
PK - Josh Scobee - 2
PK - Shayne Graham - 2
PK - Josh Brown - 1
TD - Green Bay Packers - 3
TD - Washington Redskins - 3
My RBs are killing me.
QB - Donovan McNabb - 24
QB - David Garrard - 18
QB - Byron Leftwich - 4
RB - Steve Slaton - 37
RB - Willie Parker - 16
RB - Leon Washington - 12
RB - Michael Bush - 6
RB - Sammy Morris - 4
RB - James Davis - 2
WR - Roddy White - 33
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Chris Henry - 12
WR - Derrick Mason - 9
WR - Nate Burleson - 5
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Patrick Crayton - 4
TE - John Carlson - 11
TE - Brent Celek - 7
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
PK - Josh Scobee - 2
PK - Shayne Graham - 2
PK - Josh Brown - 1
TD - Green Bay Packers - 3
TD - Washington Redskins - 3
Project Mayhem
Footballguy
152 with a couple Cowboys left, might be safe
The game isn't played on paper. It's played by tiny men inside my television!I scored 158.9 last week. Looks like 151.7 this week unless Felix Jones or Tynes scores enough tonight to get in my lineup...
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
159 with Witten/Bradshaw/Felix possible points.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
anyone getting killed with the Brady/Moss connection?
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
179.25 with Felix/Bradshaw (-10.3) and Carpenter (-10). Stars of the week were VJax, Brent Celek and Jason Avant (!).
On to week 3, but I'll be dead in 3 weeks if Hasselbeck misses significant time
On to week 3, but I'll be dead in 3 weeks if Hasselbeck misses significant time
HALtheCOW
Footballguy
I am sorry to hear that....on my TV, they are huge.
