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PatsChowder
Footballguy
I'm at 131.1 with Grant (-7.8), Jennings (-7.1), and the GB Defense (0).
Feelin' good.
Feelin' good.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Interesting note to those curious about such things, Mendenhall and Moore are only on 62 and 36 "at risk" rosters respectively , meaning that of the bottom 1250 rosters they are on a very small number of them. Vincent Jackson (339) and the PIT D (206) are the only players tonight on more than 200 at risk teams. In general, PIT players are on a relatively low number of at risk teams, with most of them on well under 100.
Going to need some help85.2Rodgers (-0)Grant (-6.4)Harvin (-5.6)Finley (-7.6)Packers (-8)My guess is I have somewhere around 40ish % chance of squeaking through. I don't think it matters much, between Davis, Edge and Leftwich and maybe Chris Henry, that is a lot of dead roster space to think seriously about a top finish.
bryhamm
Footballguy
thank you NO defense and Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith.
This might be the end of the road for my team! I sure hate an early exit from this contest, but I only have about 75 points. I still have Mendenhall, LT, Sproles, Keading and Vincent Jackson tonight. Harvin and Finley Monday night.
Mendenhall just scored his 2nd TD as I type this, so I guess there is still hope. It looks like all 3 backs in this game will count for me as I took a 0 from 3 backs and 2 WR and 1 TE... Not much to choose from!
Mendenhall just scored his 2nd TD as I type this, so I guess there is still hope. It looks like all 3 backs in this game will count for me as I took a 0 from 3 backs and 2 WR and 1 TE... Not much to choose from!
firstseason1988
Footballguy
As a an observer with no mathematical basis for this except for a rough observation, I think this will be the lowest cutoff week, at least after Sunday's games. A lot of teams will have players going tomorrow night. Will make a fun Monday night football. But the current cut has to be real low right now. With bye weeks, no huge scorers from studs, could easily be a low cut line this week. I hope.
sinatravolta
Footballguy
I am definitely on the border - it's the risk-reward nature of having some of my better players on a bye. Interesting for me was the Cowboys last drive. Hurd had a 50-yard catch which helped, but then failed to make the catch on 2 potential TDs in a row - the 1st one was tough - the 2nd he should have had. On the other hand, as a 'skins fan, it's at least nice to see the 'boys lose.
Anyway - I'm sitting at around 97 with Grant - 2.7 and Packers -2. Am wishing I had gone for SF D over SEA D (had gone that way at one point - obviously would have carried me through this week). Hoping everyone is right that cut will be below the simulations. Hope Harvin doesn't do much tomorrow since I know he's heavily owned and I don't have him.
I do think having 3 K's is key. $4 spent and have gotten: Hauschka W1: 10, W2: 8, Mare W3: 19, Gould W4: 15.
Anyway - I'm sitting at around 97 with Grant - 2.7 and Packers -2. Am wishing I had gone for SF D over SEA D (had gone that way at one point - obviously would have carried me through this week). Hoping everyone is right that cut will be below the simulations. Hope Harvin doesn't do much tomorrow since I know he's heavily owned and I don't have him.
I do think having 3 K's is key. $4 spent and have gotten: Hauschka W1: 10, W2: 8, Mare W3: 19, Gould W4: 15.
a_troll00
Footballguy
I hope it's a low cut week. It's going to take a miracle to get me on to week 5.As a an observer with no mathematical basis for this except for a rough observation, I think this will be the lowest cutoff week, at least after Sunday's games. A lot of teams will have players going tomorrow night. Will make a fun Monday night football. But the current cut has to be real low right now. With bye weeks, no huge scorers from studs, could easily be a low cut line this week. I hope.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Looks like Garrard and Mason will keep me alive one more week. Royal and Henry looking like pitiful picks though.
I feel you, my friend.QB Palmer - 24.50 (Rodgers still to play)a_troll00 said:
RB1 R. Rice - 17.70
RB2 L. Washington - 6.10
WR1 V. Jackson - 9.60
WR2 B. Engram - 5.00
WR3 DHB - 4.80 (Harvin still to play)
TE1 Z. Miller 7.80 (J. Finley still to play)
FLEX - R. Meachem 4.20 (Harvin and J. Finley still to come)
PK - R. Bironas 3.00 (R. Longwell still to play)
DST - NY Giants 7.00
Only 89.7 FPs so far. Ugh. I knew when I picked my squad though that Week 4 was the week that would make or break me (Boldin, Turner, Celek, etc. on their bye, plus now Parker hurt). If Rodgers, Finley, Harvin and Longwell don't come up BIG for me tomorrow night (Finley, Harvin and Longwell, in particular), I'm toast.
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i am hoping I will eek through with 133.85, but I realize it might be close, low scoring on MOnday will obviously help me, so keep it down Vikings and Packers 
Week 5 will probably kill me anyway
P Manning - 28.65
L Washington - 6.1
L Betts - 3.6
D Mason - 21.8
C Ochocinco - 17.4
A Johnson - 8.6
D Bess (Flex) - 4.7
C Cooley - 20
J Hanson - 7
Houston - 16
not scoring:
Stafford, Leftwich
LT, Sproles, FWP, J Davis
Schilens, Cribbs
M Bennett, Finley (I guess he could beat my flex and give me a better score overall)
Nedney, Jo Brown
Dallas & Oakland
Week 5 will probably kill me anywayP Manning - 28.65
L Washington - 6.1
L Betts - 3.6
D Mason - 21.8
C Ochocinco - 17.4
A Johnson - 8.6
D Bess (Flex) - 4.7
C Cooley - 20
J Hanson - 7
Houston - 16
not scoring:
Stafford, Leftwich
LT, Sproles, FWP, J Davis
Schilens, Cribbs
M Bennett, Finley (I guess he could beat my flex and give me a better score overall)
Nedney, Jo Brown
Dallas & Oakland
ctriopelle
Footballguy
TFS is projecting the cut after tomorrow's games at approximately 111. Looks like actual scoring is a bit lower than expected. I will rerun the check without tomorrow's projected scores in a minute to see how things look currently.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Looks like I'm out. Bye week hit me hard and no one stepped up to help me out. 
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Yikes! Only 88.5. The silver lining is I get all of Rodgers' points, I get all of Harvin's points, plus Finley (-3.6) and Packers D (-12). Need a Monday Night shootout
ctriopelle
Footballguy
The current 7250 level is about 90, with unverified stats. With our projection of 111 for the final cut, there are a little over 5000 already there. People hoping for big scores from ADP, Harvin, Shiancoe, Jennings, Rodgers, Grant, and Finley will be fighting an uphill battle, as all these players are on over 200 currently bottom 15% rosters, with the GB players having significant "at risk" team ownership.
Sitting on 90 myself, looks like a nail biter for me, and yes, I own a lot of those players myself. Fortunately Rodgers will count straight up.
Sitting on 90 myself, looks like a nail biter for me, and yes, I own a lot of those players myself. Fortunately Rodgers will count straight up.
Short Corner
Footballguy
111.30 with Harvin, Grant (7.6) and Packers (8.0)
thatguythere
Footballguy
Anyone else having trouble with Fantasystar? At first glance it looks like I am good to go with 146.15 total points, but when I add up the red numbers it only comes to 112.65. Weird. Just happens to be the exact amount I scored on week 1?
Anyone else having this problem?
Anyone else having this problem?
Thanks Rivers, Mason, and Rice! 119.9 with four players going tonight and only low score to beat. Safely onto week 5. But next week is brutal.....No Rivers, Grant, Coleston, or GB def. I hope next week is as low scoring as this week or I may be done. Did not plan this bye week well.
You are a long ways from out. Right now the cutoff is about 90 so you are in better shape than a lot of teams. If I were you I would be routing against Grant and Rogers who are on a lot of roosters below you. You should have a much better than 50 percent chance of survival.
Nope, you roll with the players you got.
No sense me posting a current cut on Mondays anymore, since you guys have it nailed. Current is around 90. Projected is around 110.
Pre-MNF sim
Pre-MNF sim
Das Boot
Footballguy
Click on the column header and it will recalculate that week's score.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Huh, upon further review, I'm fine. Not sure what happened, but it says I'm 100% to make it next week.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Wouldn't go that far Doug, I'm still a little shaky on making sure I'm doing things right...Plus your sim is a little more sophisticated than my estimate
Oh, yeah, I will for sure continue to run an updated sim. Just the "if there were no MNF" cut line is obsolete.Wouldn't go that far Doug, I'm still a little shaky on making sure I'm doing things right...Plus your sim is a little more sophisticated than my estimate
Liquid Courage
Footballguy
My lowest week so far and per Doug's SIM, I'm sitting pretty in the top 1800 with A. Rodg and Jennings going (which should score me more points. )
Still.. Ugly week. Not many rosters must have the top scorers this week.
Still.. Ugly week. Not many rosters must have the top scorers this week.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
PM me your username over at TFS, I'll look at it for you. Mine is adding up correctly, but it wont hurt for me to check it out.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Thank you Garrard... With taking a 2.7 from James and no hope to improve that and low scores from my WR's, K and D Garrard was the difference maker this week for me.
Sitting at 125.45
Sitting at 125.45
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Looks like I survived some pretty significant bye weeks. Matty Ice/Roddy White and DeAngelo. Addai, Mason, Britt and D. Clark carried my team.
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
Looks like this is the end of the line for 16 Kicker Guy. Having his only QB (Warner) and his only TE (Gonzo) on Bye really did him in...
gregjcross
Footballguy
That Chris Henry? How on earth did your other guys do that badly?>
