ShamrockPride
Footballguy
For the 100th time, which Pats fans always conveniently leave out, he shredded a secondary needing to play their 5th string CB.
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*** Official Super Bowl LI Thread - Falcons vs Patriots *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Boston
Footballguy
Let's remember that it was a very different game back than as well...no one else was really doing what the Rams did...I am not knocking the Falcons but they are not playing the game differently like the Rams did...
Rick James
Footballguy
Falcons have faced Rodgers (x2), Brees (x2), Wilson (x2), Rivers, Winston (x2), Carr
I'm not saying they have a very good defense, but it's battle tested. They're giving up only 20.5 points since their BYE week, which is a big improvement from the beginning of the year. And those numbers include games against the Saints and Green Bay, games that were blowouts going into the 4th quarter where the opposing QBs started slinging it all over the field and ATL stayed back and didn't press much.
edit:
ATL 38 - NO 13 at the start of the 4th quarter.
ATL 37 - GB 15 at the start of the 4th quarter
I'm not saying they have a very good defense, but it's battle tested. They're giving up only 20.5 points since their BYE week, which is a big improvement from the beginning of the year. And those numbers include games against the Saints and Green Bay, games that were blowouts going into the 4th quarter where the opposing QBs started slinging it all over the field and ATL stayed back and didn't press much.
edit:
ATL 38 - NO 13 at the start of the 4th quarter.
ATL 37 - GB 15 at the start of the 4th quarter
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Jayrok
Footballguy
I remember NE man-handling the Rams WRs in that SB. Didn't let them off the line freely. Physical game plan had a huge effect on the greatest show on turf.
They'll have to double team Julio Jones in this one. One man-to-man defender is not going to shut down JJ. And he certainly won't be man-handled like Isaac Bruce. ATL uses 2 TEs and then there's those 2 RBs that have to be accounted for. Ryan is no Mike Vick, for sure, but he is fairly mobile back there... more so than Kurt Warner anyway.
I expect NE to stop the run pretty good. But they'll have to cover the RBs out on routes. Both of them are dangerous in the open field and if Ryan can get them matched with a LB, lookout. Too many weapons for NE to shut them down. But then there's the Belichick effect. Looking forward to see how they game plan for ATL's offense.
They'll have to double team Julio Jones in this one. One man-to-man defender is not going to shut down JJ. And he certainly won't be man-handled like Isaac Bruce. ATL uses 2 TEs and then there's those 2 RBs that have to be accounted for. Ryan is no Mike Vick, for sure, but he is fairly mobile back there... more so than Kurt Warner anyway.
I expect NE to stop the run pretty good. But they'll have to cover the RBs out on routes. Both of them are dangerous in the open field and if Ryan can get them matched with a LB, lookout. Too many weapons for NE to shut them down. But then there's the Belichick effect. Looking forward to see how they game plan for ATL's offense.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Butler is on Jones with safety help over the top. That much we already know. RB's out of the backfield have been there the entire season for teams that are willing to take it. I expect the Falcons will opt to take those free 5 yards more than other teams have. The question becomes what do the Patriots do to adjust, if anything? I think they would be happy to keep the play in front of them and force FG attempts, as FGs don't usually beat NE. The Pats on teams beating themselves to stop drives. An offensive penalty, a stuffed running play, one bad throw, a dropped pass, a turnover can all kill drives, and NE would much rather have a team have a 14 play drive for 3 points than a 3 play drive for 7 points.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I imagine the Falcons would love to have the RBs (and Gabriel) open in the flats with some space. Jones is pretty good at taking that slant for big yardage as well. I have a suspicion that the two TEs are going to be a big part of the offensive game plan, at least initially.
One thing I like about the Pats is their tackling. It seems they rarely miss tackles out in the open. I agree if they can hold to FGs, they'll win easily.
Dalton probably just pumped to be associated with Brady for anything. He was Tom's replacement. Ha
Rick James
Footballguy
Falcons are 7-1 when Julio has less than 100 yards receiving
So the Pats run a formation10 times...for the whole year. Break it out for 19 times against PIT and they had no answer. 4 wide with a RB. It's like the NE coaching staff graduated from Harvard and the rest of these coaches in the league got their diploma from a cracker jack box.
This according to Theisman who apparently broke down the game.
This according to Theisman who apparently broke down the game.
gump
Footballguy
Conference Champ slow as expected.
Also a PSA for fans of either team...this will be the first postseason where the 'Locker Room' tee is produced by e-com giant Fanatics. They will be offering it only thru their websites and the stadium/team shop. So keep that in mind if you want the official graphics. Otherwise typical retailers will be carrying plenty of graphics.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
LOL. I was prepared for minutiae, but this is a little much, An article on USA Today says the Falcons are in trouble because the Patriots are wearing their white road uniforms and the team that has worn white has won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls. Overall, the team in white unis has won 32 of the 50 SB's. That's it boys, might as well not even play the game cuz the uniforms are going to decide things.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Using my simple adjusted scoring model, here's what the numbers show.
Behind the numbers: I used only the games Brady started and all the Falcons games. I compared the score of each game by excluding that outcome and compared it to the opponent's other results. For example, if ATL scored 33 points and their opponent only allowed 20 ppg in their other games, ATL would get a score of +13 for that game. I did that for every game, both offensively and defensively, regular season and postseason.
The results showed the Patriots averaged 30.7 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +8.7 adjusted ppg on offense, allowed 14.9 ppg on defense, and allowed -4.9 adjusted ppg on defense.
The Falcons averaged 34.4 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +11.8 adjusted ppg on offense, 24.8 ppg on defense, and allowed +1.3 adjusted ppg on defense.
Running the numbers . . .
NE OFF 30.7 ppg
NE OFF +8.7 adjusted ppg
ATL DEF 24.8 ppg allowed
ATL DEF +1.3 adjusted ppg allowed
Add that all together and divide by two = NE expected points scored = 32.75
ATL OFF 34.4 ppg
ATL OFF +11.8 adjusted ppg
NE DEF 14.9 ppg allowed
NE DEF -4.9 adjusted ppg allowed
Add that all up and divide by two = ATL expected points scored = 28.1
According to this model, NE will win 33-28.
Behind the numbers: I used only the games Brady started and all the Falcons games. I compared the score of each game by excluding that outcome and compared it to the opponent's other results. For example, if ATL scored 33 points and their opponent only allowed 20 ppg in their other games, ATL would get a score of +13 for that game. I did that for every game, both offensively and defensively, regular season and postseason.
The results showed the Patriots averaged 30.7 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +8.7 adjusted ppg on offense, allowed 14.9 ppg on defense, and allowed -4.9 adjusted ppg on defense.
The Falcons averaged 34.4 in unadjusted ppg on offense, +11.8 adjusted ppg on offense, 24.8 ppg on defense, and allowed +1.3 adjusted ppg on defense.
Running the numbers . . .
NE OFF 30.7 ppg
NE OFF +8.7 adjusted ppg
ATL DEF 24.8 ppg allowed
ATL DEF +1.3 adjusted ppg allowed
Add that all together and divide by two = NE expected points scored = 32.75
ATL OFF 34.4 ppg
ATL OFF +11.8 adjusted ppg
NE DEF 14.9 ppg allowed
NE DEF -4.9 adjusted ppg allowed
Add that all up and divide by two = ATL expected points scored = 28.1
According to this model, NE will win 33-28.
Brady was 37-50 that day completing to seven different receivers.
Was the 5th string CB playing everyone?
Don't want to hear it. That defense was formidable. Everyone loses players. Don't see anyone crying over Gronk's key injuries during the super bowl.
Rick James
Footballguy
Curious what the numbers would look like if you looked at the last 8 games instead of the whole season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE OFF 30.0
NE ADJ. OFF +8.5
ATL DEF 20.5
ATL ADJ DEF -2.7
NE OVERALL = 28.2
ATL OFF 37.5
ATL ADJ OFF +14.3
NE DEF 12.9
NE ADJ DEF -7.3
ATL OVERALL = 28.7
Rick James
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Like anything involving statistical analysis, the bigger the data set, the less minor tweaks impact the results. For example, as I mentioned a few pages ago, the Patriots offense almost literally gave away 24 total points due to 3 special teams fumbles inside their own 10 yard line and a rare Brady pick inside the NE 15 yard line. Those resulted in 3 TD's and a FG, which really had nothing to do with the defense. I am normally not a fan of "changing" results or filtering data, but if those 24 points were removed from NE's ledger on defense, the last 8 games model would look like this instead:
NE OFF 30.0NE ADJ. OFF +8.5ATL DEF 20.5ATL ADJ DEF -2.7NE OVERALL = 28.2ATL OFF 37.5ATL ADJ OFF +14.3NE DEF 9.9NE ADJ DEF -10.3ATL OVERALL = 25.7
Those plays swung the pendulum on the Atlanta offense side by 3 points. But those plays were really bizarre. The punt returner that had the ball bounce off his foot at the 2 yard line is no longer returning punts. One of the kickoff fumbles was from a returner that only returned that one kick the entire season. And the INT came off of Michael Floyd's hands, who probably will be inactive for the SB. Weird, quirky plays happen from time to time, but THOSE particular quirkly plays are very unlikely to happen in the SB. I would have bet that it would be years before we saw NE fumble on back to back plays (and I would have lost) . . . and then they go and do it again within a month. Go figure. A trifecta in another month? I would be shocked.
The point being, those points technically get hung on the NE defense, but overall the defense has performed even better when you look at the mess the offense left them to deal with.
This is the first time as a Pats fan that I'm not nervous about the Pats in the SB. For some reason I just feel like they won't lose. I could be totally wrong and I don't dismiss Atlanta as a threat but for some reason my gut tells me the Pats close the deal. I'm sure when the game kicks off I will no doubt have some anxiety.
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
I feel the same way. Mainly because Atlanta doesn't have the type of defense like the Giants/Broncos/Ravens have that historically give Brady fits, and the fact that the Patriots have a run game and a better offense than they did in 2014 when they won.
Rick James
Footballguy
You could say the same for Atlanta. KC scored 16 points on special teams and when our offense was on the field, but they count against the Atlanta DEF. I also saw the Falcons take a knee at the 1 yard line against Seattle in the playoffs when the game was over. That could be 7 points in our favor. So I'm not trying to adjust particular plays, but I do think the yearly stars aren't a proper reflection of how well the Falcons defense has played since the BYE week.
Agreed.
Is Atlanta really any better than Pittsburgh (I mean the amazing, red hot, pre-Sunday Pittsburgh, not the useless loser post-Sunday Pittsburgh that obviously never had a chance in hell)?
The Falcons thrive on those chunk plays, and NE doesn't give up chunk plays.
On defence, the only chance Atlanta has is if that pass rush can get to Brady, Bronco-style. Otherwise, they can be run on and passed on.
Tough teams--mentally tough teams in particular--give the Pats problems. I don't know if Atlanta has that mettle, to keep coming if things aren't going right.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well part of the reason their scoring defensive ranking is so good in the first place is because they normally don't put their defense in a bad position with turnovers and special teams play - so it works both ways. I'm not saying the Pats defense is bad (it isn't). It's just when you only look at one aspect (scoring) it can be skewed a bit by other factors - both ways.
LBH
Footballguy
I don't think Atlanta is getting enough respect. A team that dismantled Seattle and Green Bay in consecutive weeks is an underdog against a team that's only played one good team all season - and lost.
Did anyone not a Steelers fan really think they had a chance in NE? When is the last time the Steelers were anything more than a speed bump for the Patriots? the AFC is terrible right now top to bottom.
Did anyone not a Steelers fan really think they had a chance in NE? When is the last time the Steelers were anything more than a speed bump for the Patriots? the AFC is terrible right now top to bottom.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Whats BBs record vs zone blocking and a Kubiak shanahan style offese??
The Falcons can get after the QB. Jets are like atl they dont have a great def but give Brady fits.
Kubiak had such a masterful game plan last yr in championship game v Brady Im sure shanahan will take cues from the film and do the same things..
Are we forgetting Coleman and Freeman??
I dont see how NE is favored.all their sb wins and losses are within 3-4 pts..
This game will be no different. But I could see atl putting a beating on NE theyre defense isnt as good as advertised. 2 games v weak jets and bills.then other lousy teams like arizona rams etc..Coleman is going to slay the dragon.they cant stop everyone.ninkovich sans the steroids cant run down atl RBs.
And Brady already sounds cocky about the matchup ala 2007 with the' We're only going to score 17 pts???..ok..LOL'
And then proceeded to get his brains beat in by the better NYG
Never doubt Kubiak or shanahan offenses v Bb.
The Falcons can get after the QB. Jets are like atl they dont have a great def but give Brady fits.
Kubiak had such a masterful game plan last yr in championship game v Brady Im sure shanahan will take cues from the film and do the same things..
Are we forgetting Coleman and Freeman??
I dont see how NE is favored.all their sb wins and losses are within 3-4 pts..
This game will be no different. But I could see atl putting a beating on NE theyre defense isnt as good as advertised. 2 games v weak jets and bills.then other lousy teams like arizona rams etc..Coleman is going to slay the dragon.they cant stop everyone.ninkovich sans the steroids cant run down atl RBs.
And Brady already sounds cocky about the matchup ala 2007 with the' We're only going to score 17 pts???..ok..LOL'
And then proceeded to get his brains beat in by the better NYG
Never doubt Kubiak or shanahan offenses v Bb.
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SteevieG
Footballguy
Kubiak has a great secondary. ATL does not.
You need the personnel.
ATL RBs are a big threat. Most likely receiving.
Boston
Footballguy
I agree with a lot of this...one of the issues when looking at the Pats D is their style...in many ways they don't pass the eye-test when it comes to looking at a real good D because quite often they don't attack...they are not the type of D that just gets after it which is what I think most people associate with a big time D (and the style most fans want their team to play)...as a fan the style they play can be frustrating because it allows the opposing offense to make plays...what I do like about this year's D is they seem to be totally in-sync with what BB is trying to accomplish...they are not giving up big plays and they are doing a good job in the red zone...as a unit they are totally on-board with the coaching staff and there is some big-time talent in Hightower, Butler and McCourty (and Branch has been playing at an extremely high level as well)...there is little doubt in my mind that Jamie Collins is no longer on this team because he could not be trusted to give up a big play like he did with Owen Daniels twice in last year's AFC Championship game...this D is better off with a lesser talent that follows the game-plan rather than a top-level talent that freelances...
All that being said at the end-of-the-day there is only one thing that matters when playing the Pats...getting pressure on Brady and having legit CBs...if you have that formula you can beat them...if you don't there's a pretty good chance you will lose...pretty simple formula...
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Falcons are the fifth team to average 40 ppg in their playoff games to reach the SB (this is the third year in a row a team as accomplished that). The other teams went 2-2 in the SB.
2015 CAR 40 ppg L
2014 NEP 40 ppg W
1994 SFO 41 ppg W
1990 BUF 47.5 pp L
New England ranked 3rd in PF and 1st in PA. There were 11 other SB teams that ranked Top 3 in most points scored and fewest points allowed, and they went 8-3.
2015 CAR 40 ppg L
2014 NEP 40 ppg W
1994 SFO 41 ppg W
1990 BUF 47.5 pp L
New England ranked 3rd in PF and 1st in PA. There were 11 other SB teams that ranked Top 3 in most points scored and fewest points allowed, and they went 8-3.
I'll have to re-book all of my hotel, rental car, pre- and post- game party reservations. Damn!
Point being...they were road games, not at Gillette. ATL is a much better team at home.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady & the Boys last played in Hotlanta in 2013. Ryan threw for 4 and a quarter passing yards. The Pats got up 30-13, ATL put 10 on the board late, and NE won 30-23. Brady threw TD passes to Matthew Milligan and Kenbrell Thompkins. Lucky for the Falcons, they don't have to worry about covering those two this time around.
Jayrok
Footballguy
NE's Belichick is 4-0 all time against the Falcons. The latest game was 3 years ago. ATL wasn't exactly a top 5 team in those years.
2001 - ATL was 7-9
2005 - ATL was 8-8
2009 - ATL was 9-7
2013 - ATL was 4-12
2016 - ATL was 11-5 (13-5 with playoff wins). ATL is due!
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
thatguy
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
538 had Hillary higher than that I believeAnarchy99 said:
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
I was just down in Atlanta the last couple of days to meet with clients, talked up football with a bunch of Uber drivers that were into sports and while most of them were rooting for the Falcons they were all from other places so it was their primary team. I was out a bunch of places and talking up the game with folks but it is just a different type of fandom down there even for the life long natives. Seems like the vast majority of those folks prefer college teams.
Read this article by the Boston Globe's Dan Shaughnesey. Kinda says the same thing, but a lot harsher:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2017/01/23/hard-get-pumped-about-super-bowl-against-atlanta/0t7MbsUBBpbzJpVvTZlzxM/story.html
A lot of Atlanta media up in arms about it.
Dan has a way about him.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
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