Ok... I'll admit it! I was wrong! so what... (1 Viewer)

[wiscstlatlmia]

This was originally a post from my site, but I'll spare you guys the link/self promotion since I know how annoying it can be.

Ok, I realize It's only half way through the year, but this season is starting to take shape and trends are starting to become facts.

What have you guys been wrong about so far this year? It's ok... it will feel better once you get it off your chest.

My List:

1. Brandon Lloyd-

The funny part about this is the targets have been there(on pace for 149). The talent was never a question before the season... it was all a matter of if he got the targets or not. Well... hes on pace for 80 catches 930 yards and 3 TDs on 149 targets... that is. horrible. The game vs the Jets was the icing on the cake for me. he had a few catchable balls that he plain dropped. Not the Brandon Lloyd I thought I knew, but apparently this could be the new Lloyd. The deep ball has simply not been there. I get a funky feeling about the Patriots offense, I don't know exactly what it is, but I don't like it. My worry is that Brady will stop going to Lloyd altogether considering the other weapons he has. Lloyd has one 30 yard TD buoying his season production right now, not good.

That said, I think things can get better, I'm just not betting on it. Seems lloyd is a WR3- WR4 in standard leagues and a low end WR2 in ppr for the remainder of the year.

2. Quarterback stats falling back down to earth-

Well, I was right about one thing... the elite QBs stats... at least partially fell back down to earth. Brees is still chugging along, but that is because he literally has no defense and has to score every time. Aaron Rodgers is well, Aaron Rodgers and he has a new toy to play with (Randall Cobb), but all the other QBs that were perceived as elite have come back down to earth... somewhat. The thing I didn't expect was the rest of the league catching up...This is a passing league now, teams are going to throw 30-45 times a game now until the defenses figure something out. The evolution of the slot WR( Wes welker, Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, and Antonio Brown to name a few) has made the short passing game a variation of the running game and it seems this crop of WR1s is simply unstoppable(Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt, Vincent Jackson again, to name a few). It almost seems like we are coming into a golden age of WRs...

O, the QB play isn't to shabby either. We have an interesting/amazing contrast of QB talent right now. Some young guns(Luck, Griffin and Newton), guys on the cusp of their prime( Ryan, Stafford), guys in their prime(Rodgers, Rivers, Manning, Roethlisberger and Romo) and old guys still seemingly with a lot left(Manning, Brady and Brees). This isn't even to mention the countless other QBs that are still developing and have a shot to be special(Bradford, Freeman, Tannehill, Weeden and Ponder).

All in all, the passing game has evolved and there are more than a select few that can be every week fantasy starters. It seems QBBC was the way to go this year, but not for the reasons I thought.

3. AJ Green-

I thought the Bengals were going to be miserable this year and Green's stats were going to suffer. Well, the Bengals are mediocre and Green has taken the Offense on his back and carried it to decent production. The guy is a monster, simple as that. He is that once every 5 years type of prospect that makes his situation rather than the situation making him. He is every bit as good as the other elite options and if he keeps developing like he is, perhaps my Larry Fitzgerald ceiling comparison didn't do him justice. The only issue I see here is that eventually he will get the same treatment Calvin Johnson is getting.

4. Darren McFadden-

All I can really do is shake my head... or slap my forehead.. I really am shocked with what happened so far. I'm not saying this as a co-out but I really feel this has more to do with the new blocking scheme. McFadden has always struggled to stay on the field, but on - field production was never the issue. coming into this year his career YPC was 4.7. In 2012 it's 3.1.

3.1? excuse me? 3.1 YPC is Larry Johnson his last year in the league bad... its Shaun Alexander after he got paid bad... Is McFadden done? You can say maybe he isn't all the way back from his foot injury last year, you can say hes had a tough run schedule, you can say teams have sold out to stop him... but 3.1 YPC is complete ineptitude, something is going on here.

Even though I think something bigger than McFadden is going on, the production isn't there. You are surviving in PPR, but in standard leagues his production has been a joke... and I'm starting to think it may not get better this year.

 

[JNox3]

This was originally a post from my site, but I'll spare you guys the link/self promotion since I know how annoying it can be. Ok, I realize It's only half way through the year, but this season is starting to take shape and trends are starting to become facts.What have you guys been wrong about so far this year? It's ok... it will feel better once you get it off your chest.My List:1. Brandon Lloyd- The funny part about this is the targets have been there(on pace for 149). The talent was never a question before the season... it was all a matter of if he got the targets or not. Well... hes on pace for 80 catches 930 yards and 3 TDs on 149 targets... that is. horrible. The game vs the Jets was the icing on the cake for me. he had a few catchable balls that he plain dropped. Not the Brandon Lloyd I thought I knew, but apparently this could be the new Lloyd. The deep ball has simply not been there. I get a funky feeling about the Patriots offense, I don't know exactly what it is, but I don't like it. My worry is that Brady will stop going to Lloyd altogether considering the other weapons he has. Lloyd has one 30 yard TD buoying his season production right now, not good.That said, I think things can get better, I'm just not betting on it. Seems lloyd is a WR3- WR4 in standard leagues and a low end WR2 in ppr for the remainder of the year. 2. Quarterback stats falling back down to earth- Well, I was right about one thing... the elite QBs stats... at least partially fell back down to earth. Brees is still chugging along, but that is because he literally has no defense and has to score every time. Aaron Rodgers is well, Aaron Rodgers and he has a new toy to play with (Randall Cobb), but all the other QBs that were perceived as elite have come back down to earth... somewhat. The thing I didn't expect was the rest of the league catching up...This is a passing league now, teams are going to throw 30-45 times a game now until the defenses figure something out. The evolution of the slot WR( Wes welker, Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, and Antonio Brown to name a few) has made the short passing game a variation of the running game and it seems this crop of WR1s is simply unstoppable(Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt, Vincent Jackson again, to name a few). It almost seems like we are coming into a golden age of WRs... O, the QB play isn't to shabby either. We have an interesting/amazing contrast of QB talent right now. Some young guns(Luck, Griffin and Newton), guys on the cusp of their prime( Ryan, Stafford), guys in their prime(Rodgers, Rivers, Manning, Roethlisberger and Romo) and old guys still seemingly with a lot left(Manning, Brady and Brees). This isn't even to mention the countless other QBs that are still developing and have a shot to be special(Bradford, Freeman, Tannehill, Weeden and Ponder). All in all, the passing game has evolved and there are more than a select few that can be every week fantasy starters. It seems QBBC was the way to go this year, but not for the reasons I thought.3. AJ Green-I thought the Bengals were going to be miserable this year and Green's stats were going to suffer. Well, the Bengals are mediocre and Green has taken the Offense on his back and carried it to decent production. The guy is a monster, simple as that. He is that once every 5 years type of prospect that makes his situation rather than the situation making him. He is every bit as good as the other elite options and if he keeps developing like he is, perhaps my Larry Fitzgerald ceiling comparison didn't do him justice. The only issue I see here is that eventually he will get the same treatment Calvin Johnson is getting.

I was wrong about Marshawn Lynch and Demarco Murray. I thought Lynch wasn't the beast others thought he was and I thought Murray was going to be a solid #1 and challenge for the best RB of the year.I was right about AJ Green, Percy Harvin and Peyton Manning. I have them all and my team is kicking butt.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

ACL injuries are not what they used to be.

 

[Banger]

I was wrong on ADP (didn't think he'd be able to bounce back so quickly)

Lloyd - thought he'd be more of an impact fantasy point wise

Chris Johnson - didn't think he'd be horrible like he was at the start of the season

Stafford - I didn't think he'd get 41 td's again but thought he'd be tracking for more than 20...

Wayne - I liked his value but didn't anticipate that he'd be a top 10 wr

Dez - I thought he was going to have the breakthrough season but it's just the same old Dez

Quizz - I thought they were going to give him a shot at getting more carries/touches

 

[Banemorth]

Cobb. I just kept saying over and over that he's another young WR buried in the depth chart. A-Rod likes to spread the ball too much. etc.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I thought Kevin Smith would be the guy to own in Detroit, I think Schwartz has just buried him to give LeShoure the rock

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Whiffed horribly at the QB2 spot by buying into the preseason hype on Russel Wilson. No biggie if I had a Rodgers, Manning, Brees type but I am stuck with Rivers.

 

[andrew11]

Dez - I thought he was going to have the breakthrough season but it's just the same old Dez

I have never seen one guy get bashed more than Dez does. He has had a solid year and it's only half way through. Plenty of time to really get going. Unless he is your #1 WR I have been happy with him. People just follow the masses and repeat what everyone else is saying.

 

[solorca]

I've done pretty well this year with my hits, but I've had my fair share of misses too. I'll play...

Jacquizz Rodgers - I was all in on him all over the place, but his production hasn't been there. He's had opportunities, as he's been given carries and catches, but he's yet to do anything spectacular with any of it. This is one of those situations where I bought into the hype a little too hard.

Randall Cobb - I'll start this by saying that I drafted him and had high hopes for him coming into the season. After the great week one I thought I was on my way to being proven right. Then, he wasn't used as much in the offense and I sold him for Michael Crabtree, thinking I was getting a fantastic deal. Oof. I knew the talent was there, but I just didn't see him being this involved this season. Huge miss on my part.

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far.

Robert Meacham - Big miss here. I thought he was being ridiculously underrated in drafts, and when I was able to get him in the 8th round or so, I was giddy. Even with a clear opportunity and not a ton of competition for targets, he has been terrible.

Shane Vereen - I thought he'd take the starting job from Ridley.

 

[solorca]

I've done pretty well this year with my hits, but I've had my fair share of misses too. I'll play...

Jacquizz Rodgers - I was all in on him all over the place, but his production hasn't been there. He's had opportunities, as he's been given carries and catches, but he's yet to do anything spectacular with any of it. This is one of those situations where I bought into the hype a little too hard.

Randall Cobb - I'll start this by saying that I drafted him and had high hopes for him coming into the season. After the great week one I thought I was on my way to being proven right. Then, he wasn't used as much in the offense and I sold him for Michael Crabtree, thinking I was getting a fantastic deal. Oof. I knew the talent was there, but I just didn't see him being this involved this season. Huge miss on my part.

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far. Not a total miss, since he's had a decent amount of touchdowns that have helped him have some good weeks, but he hasn't been nearly at the level I expected.

Robert Meacham - Big miss here. I thought he was being ridiculously underrated in drafts, and when I was able to get him in the 8th round or so, I was giddy. Even with a clear opportunity and not a ton of competition for targets, he has been terrible.

Shane Vereen - I thought he'd take the starting job from Ridley.

 

[cheese]

I really thought Finley still had some untapped potential to go big in that offense despite everything saying otherwise in 2011.

Of all of my calls for this year, he's the one where I'm ready to towel in. He is just not productive and the sample size against him gets worse every week.

 

[strong]

Shane Vereen - I thought he'd take the starting job from Ridley.

IT'S NOT TOO LATE!!!!!!

 

[FDC]

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far.

Overreation to a primetime dud?He is TE5 right now and 49ers are talking they are going to feature him this week

 

[solorca]

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far.

Overreation to a primetime dud?He is TE5 right now and 49ers are talking they are going to feature him this week

No. Reaction to him performing as he always has, and being underused. He has had under 5 fantasy points in my ppr for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. Also, almost all of his production has been touchdown dependent. I expected him to be a must more reliable and explosive weekly player, rather than the boom/bust Vernon of the past. Last year he was under 10 points in 9 out of 16 weeks. I bought into that changing, but it seems to be the same. He will finish the season in the top 6-7 at his position like normal, but he will also kill you as much as he helps you. Like I said, not a huge miss... But he just hasn't performed at the level I expected from him (I drafted him much higher than I like to go on tight ends).

 

[BobbyLayne]

Gates is the healthiest he has been in years. (One good game, killed me for five weeks before that)

Britt is top ten when he's healthy. (10th is 17.4 in PPR, Britt is 71st @ 8.1. But hey! He's 40th @ 9.2 over the last 3 weeks!!)

We don't know for sure who will be the Detroit RB, but that guy will be top ten on a PPG basis in PPR. (17th so far for Mikel, Smith is #5 off a 2 game sample)

 

[Coeur de Lion]

1. Brandon Lloyd-

The funny part about this is the targets have been there(on pace for 149). The talent was never a question before the season...it was all a matter of if he got the targets or not. Well... hes on pace for 80 catches 930 yards and 3 TDs on 149 targets... that is. horrible. The game vs the Jets was the icing on the cake for me. he had a few catchable balls that he plain dropped. Not the Brandon Lloyd I thought I knew, but apparently this could be the new Lloyd. The deep ball has simply not been there. I get a funky feeling about the Patriots offense, I don't know exactly what it is, but I don't like it. My worry is that Brady will stop going to Lloyd altogether considering the other weapons he has. Lloyd has one 30 yard TD buoying his season production right now, not good.

There were, and are, plenty of reasons to question Lloyd's talent. His career averages, the fact that he's been jettisoned by half a dozen teams, his awful catch rate, the fact that he wasn't able to command decent money on the open market, etc. The guy just flat out isn't that good.

 

[footballnerd]

Quizz Rodgers

Reggie Wayne as a WR2

Christian Ponder

Broncos Def has yet to be determined, so far doing better.

Rostering Vereen, and then for cutting Vereen

Fred Davis

 

[Banger]

Dez - I thought he was going to have the breakthrough season but it's just the same old Dez

I have never seen one guy get bashed more than Dez does. He has had a solid year and it's only half way through. Plenty of time to really get going. Unless he is your #1 WR I have been happy with him. People just follow the masses and repeat what everyone else is saying.

I don't know, right now he's ranked 34th in my league. I'm not parroting what anyone is saying, this is my perception. I owned him since he was a rookie so it's not just a knee jerk reaction as I've followed him VERY closely for years, the offseasons, the incidents, the glowing training camp reports, the missed assignments, everything. I was thinking he could break into the top 10 and right now he's 34th...can he improve throughout the year? sure. can he stay the same? sure. I'm giving my perception of how he's performed through 7 games and my thought was that he would breakout this year and he hasn't, thus so far I'm wrong.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Did right: believed in Cobb and targeted drafting/adding him.

Did wrong: reading the "snaps" talk and thinking that Jennings was coming back soon, so traded him away when hot/high.

Maybe doing wrong x10: selling everything I can to get him back on my roster.

Sick about abandoning Peterson this year. Sick, sick, sick.

 

[davidwb]

Michael Vick -- ugh!

 

[butcher boy]

I haven't been wrong about much, at least on the forums.

- said it was a good idea to go QB in round 1 even if they dont match last year's numbers. It was.

- said it was a good idea to avoid the risk of drafting mid-late 1st RBs. It was.

- said Doug Martin was the back to own in TB. He is.

- said Vernon Davis would be used more as a pass blocker and his stats would suffer. He is.

The only thing I can think of is that I was convinced McFadden would get hurt. While I wasn't wrong about avoiding him in the draft, it was for the wrong reason.

Maybe it's a case of not remembering the things I was wrong about.

 

[BlueDredSo]

Josh Freeman after week 6, Randall Cobb after week 3

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I haven't been wrong about much, at least on the forums. - said it was a good idea to go QB in round 1 even if they dont match last year's numbers. It was.- said it was a good idea to avoid the risk of drafting mid-late 1st RBs. It was.- said Doug Martin was the back to own in TB. He is.- said Vernon Davis would be used more as a pass blocker and his stats would suffer. He is.The only thing I can think of is that I was convinced McFadden would get hurt. While I wasn't wrong about avoiding him in the draft, it was for the wrong reason. Maybe it's a case of not remembering the things I was wrong about.

Hah! yea, ever since SSOG posted about confirmation bias in the dynasty rankings thread I've been a little paranoid about what I'm right and wrong about(probably a big reason for starting this thread LOL).

 

[MAC_32]

A lot, probably, but the more I play this game the more I realize you just need to be right about a few things to be successful. You can get away with a whiff on RG3 or Matt Ryan if you land Randall Cobb and Doug Martin, you just can't miss on the guys you actually get on your team. The only players on my teams that have been issues have been Dez, Stafford, and Vick - who I traded for Flacco . Dez is on my team because I got caught price checking, surprised he went as cheaply as he did. Stafford was a good plan but poor execution - idea was to get him at whatever cost (best available QB) then shore up RG3 or Luck behind him. I didn't save enough $ for either rook, so I ended up with Cutler. Vick was just a victim of drunk drafting, 4th round - sure what the hell! Dumb ### move. If I had stuck with the plan I'd have probably ended up with one of Big Ben, RG3, Luck, or Ryan - maybe 2. I'd probably be 5-2 had I done that and not 3-4. Vick was absolutely my biggest whiff this August. My other teams are either 4-3 or 5-2 or the highest scoring 3-4 team in the league, I was the highest scoring 4-9 team last year so at least I'm consistent in that league - my defense sucks.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

• Premature dumping of James Jones in 2 leagues for a waiver wire flavor of the week.

• Buying into the Lloyd hype drafting him high in 2 leagues, (still was able to sell him off in one league for F. Gore.)

• Drafting M Vick when Eli was available.

• Wasting a 7th round pick on Donald Brown

• Missing out on Cobb in one of my 3 leagues because I was so smug and satisfied with my Lloyd choice for WR3 that I got complacent mining for WR’s.

 

[az_prof]

I was right about enough to be 6-1 at this point, but I was definitely wrong on Meachem. I really thougth that he would flourish with an opportunity to start, but he just seems to be a boom/bust guy who is mostly bust. He will put up an occasional big game but you can't count on him because he can't get open often enough to get the looks needed. It is hard to see how he improves as he is already starting and has a pretty good QB.

 

[solorca]

I haven't been wrong about much, at least on the forums. - said it was a good idea to go QB in round 1 even if they dont match last year's numbers. It was.- said it was a good idea to avoid the risk of drafting mid-late 1st RBs. It was.- said Doug Martin was the back to own in TB. He is.- said Vernon Davis would be used more as a pass blocker and his stats would suffer. He is..

Maybe you should start the "I was right" thread.

 

[JoeSteeler]

right- Cobb, Spiller

wrong- Meachem

 

[jurb26]

Wrong;

DMC - Seriously, WTF? Thought Oak could support far better number for him than this. I still believe in him as player but his situation in Oak is concerning and this season is a fail based on my projections for him.

Stafford - Matt, where are the TDs?

LaFell - yeah, I though he would have a break out year as Cam developed more. Totally wrong.

Pettigrew - was expecting big things from him due to major targets. He's been getting targeted, he just seems to squander a lot of them.

 

[Rovers]

Wrong:

McFadden: well documented.

Lloyd: I didn't believe, but bought into the hype.

Right:

Matt Ryan: Raised eyebrowsrolled eyes and drew gasps when I took him at 2.03 in a 12 team redraft.

Wayne: I knew Wayne was going to rebound with an actual NFL QB throwing the ball. I was certain he'd retrun to top ten.

Benson: Then he got injured. Forced me to go to a start 4WR line up.

Kerley: Got him as soon as Holmes got injured. WW gold.

 

[The_Wolfman]

Nice thread. Good time of the year to look back on our preseason projections.

Bad Calls:

RG3: I admit I wouldn't have touched this guy in any draft. Don't watch a ton of college football so I never saw him play really. Didn't have much faith in the Redskins offense either so I never saw this kind of production coming.

Brandon Lloyd: Thought this guy would be a stud with McDaniels and Brady, but hasn't lived up to expectations.

Tony Romo: Another guy I thought was being undervalued, but it turns out that may have been for good reason.

Good Calls:

Doug Martin: Caught some flak for taking this guy in the late 2nd of my 10 teamer. His slow start made me a little nervous but the last two weeks have proved him worthy of that high selection.

Randall Cobb: Drafted this guy as a flyer late and it has paid big dividends so far.

Alfred Morris: Spent a high waiver priority on him after week 1, with a lot of hesitation. I like to take chances early in the year and so far this one has paid off.

 

[butcher boy]

I haven't been wrong about much, at least on the forums. - said it was a good idea to go QB in round 1 even if they dont match last year's numbers. It was.- said it was a good idea to avoid the risk of drafting mid-late 1st RBs. It was.- said Doug Martin was the back to own in TB. He is.- said Vernon Davis would be used more as a pass blocker and his stats would suffer. He is..

Maybe you should start the "I was right" thread.

It'd be redundant since every thread I post is an "I am right" thread.

 

[just_want_2_win]

Gates is the healthiest he has been in years. (One good game, killed me for five weeks before that)

Britt is top ten when he's healthy. (10th is 17.4 in PPR, Britt is 71st @ 8.1. But hey! He's 40th @ 9.2 over the last 3 weeks!!)

We don't know for sure who will be the Detroit RB, but that guy will be top ten on a PPG basis in PPR. (17th so far for Mikel, Smith is #5 off a 2 game sample)

Seconded.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I think it's hilarious how quickly this turned into a "I was wrong..... but I was also really right about all these over here" thread.

This is strictly for things you got wrong people!

If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think it's hilarious how quickly this turned into a "I was wrong..... but I was also really right about all these over here" thread.This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

 

[jurb26]

This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

I made sure not to break the rules!

 

[Rovers]

Players I never considered drafting (in other words, wrong):

Martin

RG3

Morris

Decker (although I did take him in the subscriber contest)

Harvin (greatly exceeded my projection and ranking)

The biggest mistakes I made in this draft were the ones that I waited on a player thinking they would fall, and didn't. Soooo many times my next 3 highest rated players went just before I was up to pick this year, it was freakin unbeleivable. It was like the other owners had seen my rankings. I hate picking near the turn for this very reason.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

I made sure not to break the rules!

LOL, thank you kind sir.

 

[Rovers]

This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

I made sure not to break the rules!

LOL, thank you kind sir.

So... it's a how I lost my league championship thread?

 

[solorca]

This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

I made sure not to break the rules!

LOL, thank you kind sir.

So... it's a how I lost my league championship thread?

I'm 6-1 in the only redraft league I'm in, with the highest point total by a decent margin. I managed to make a post where I listed my misses...it wasn't hard.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Right:

ADP- I loved where you could get this guy in the draft, and after watching him talk about his rehab, I knew he would pick right up where he left off because he is a "freak of nature"

Harvin- loved this guy, paid attention to the fact that he had the most touches of any WR over the second half of last season.. trends like that usually mean a break out year

Decker- knew Peyton Manning could turn this guy into a great WR2 at the very least,which is what I got out of drafting him in the 5th round

Robert Griffin III- drafted him early as my #1 QB, hoping for a Vick type rookie year.. had no idea it would be this good.. knew he was a smart guy though and had the potential

Spiller- grabbed him as a handcuff, was hoping for a potential lead back take over as he did so well last year when Fred went down

Amendola- knew this guy would pick up where he left off.. unfortunately he continues to be too small to play in this league

Seattle DEF- was hoping they would be Top 5 this year

needless to say this team is 6-1...1st place thus far

Wrong:

Cam Newton: thought he would pick up where he left off, and make a serious run at the top fantasy player this year.. boy was i wrong about that... i am a Panthers fan, and i am not sure i even like this guy anymore at all

Gates- thus far he has been a huge dissapointment.. paid way too high of a price for a 3rd rounder

Torrey Smith- should have taken Reggie Wayne in the 5th instead... bought into the hoopla... just not consistent at all

needless to say this team is 1-6...last place thus far

conclusion: fantasy football is 80% luck, and 20% skill

 

[Rovers]

This is strictly for things you got wrong people! If you want to make a brag/I was right thread.. go right ahead

I made sure not to break the rules!

LOL, thank you kind sir.

So... it's a how I lost my league championship thread?

I'm 6-1 in the only redraft league I'm in, with the highest point total by a decent margin. I managed to make a post where I listed my misses...it wasn't hard.

Impressive.

 

[BallparkFrank]

If I had a dollar for every post that went something like: "Never draft a Shanahan or Belichick RB"

The jury may still be out, but...

 

[Detroit Revival]

I totally whiffed on ADP, bought heavy into Crabtree, Garcon, and Torrey Smith. I wasn't going to draft ADP near where he was going in the drafts I was in. He is a beast. I thought those three WRs were surefire breakout candidates. It doesn't matter how much of the route tree Torrey can run, all they want is for him to go deep. I've never seen a receiver like Crabtree. If you need 8 yards for a 1st down he'll get you 7. I thought he'd be a ppr monster this year. So far he's been well below my expectations.

 

[MAC_32]

conclusion: fantasy football is 80% luck, and 20% skill

Nope.

 

[Dork Matter]

I decided to look at one of my three leagues. I picked from the 9-spot in a 10-team redraft league, start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, Flex RB/WR/TE, K, DST. Five bench spots, 0.5-point PPR, and additive performance bonuses that favor receivers.

My draft (took place in late August):

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Jimmy Graham

3. A.J. Green

4. Steven Jackson

5. Aaron Hernandez

6. Percy Harvin

7. Matt Ryan

8. Donald Brown

9. Robert Griffin III

10. Denarius Moore

11. Ryan Williams

12. Kevin Smith

13. Philadelphia

14. Stephen Gostkowski

15. Evan Royster

So I would say I missed (worst first) on Royster, Williams, Brown, Smith, Philadelphia, Hernandez, Jackson and Fitzgerald. Eight out of 15 spots either were busts or have underperformed their draft position, and three of my first five picks were disappointments.

Royster, Williams, Brown, Smith, Philadelphia, and Hernandez are no longer on my team (bench spots are at a premium). Burned my #2 waiver priority on Alfred Morris after week 1 and traded him for Ryan Mathews. Added James Jones off the waiver wire. Every other move has been aimed at finding a solid RB2 behind Mathews.

I know this isn't a "what I got right" thread, but to piggyback on MAC_32's comment, it was the ones I got right that have me at 5-2. Misses aren't the end of the world. Misses can be mitigated through trades, the waiver wire, and a ruthless approach to underperformers!

 

[FDC]

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far.

Overreation to a primetime dud?He is TE5 right now and 49ers are talking they are going to feature him this week

No. Reaction to him performing as he always has, and being underused. He has had under 5 fantasy points in my ppr for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. Also, almost all of his production has been touchdown dependent. I expected him to be a must more reliable and explosive weekly player, rather than the boom/bust Vernon of the past. Last year he was under 10 points in 9 out of 16 weeks. I bought into that changing, but it seems to be the same. He will finish the season in the top 6-7 at his position like normal, but he will also kill you as much as he helps you. Like I said, not a huge miss... But he just hasn't performed at the level I expected from him (I drafted him much higher than I like to go on tight ends).

He was still in the top 10-15 TE range in that span

 

[SWC]

i drafted matt stafford in one leauge and then kept him for this year and i wish that i had cut him and let him stink up the joint for some other crappy team besides mine right now i feel very angry at him and if i saw him at a deli or at a tavern i would not buy him a giant tasty dill pickle or a beer respectively take that to the bank brohans

 

[pbandy1]

I was wrong on

Vick... though he'd return much better than 2011. Not 2010, but man did not expect a turnover machine. He just isn't that good of a QB.

Peyton Manning... thought'd he have a decent game but he's really pulling out all the stops.

Pettigrew... thought he'd be a top 3 tight end this year for some reason, lol. It has not been working out.

Rivers... thought he'd be QB1 material. He's garbage.

Gore/Turner... self-explanatory.

 

[solorca]

Vernon Davis - After the playoffs last year, I was convinced that they would make an effort to make him an integral part of the offense, rather than the maddening way they've used him in the past. I had him as my #3 tight end on the board. As with previous years, they 49ers still fail to get him involved, even though he's the most explosive receiving option on their team, by far.

Overreation to a primetime dud?He is TE5 right now and 49ers are talking they are going to feature him this week

No. Reaction to him performing as he always has, and being underused. He has had under 5 fantasy points in my ppr for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. Also, almost all of his production has been touchdown dependent. I expected him to be a must more reliable and explosive weekly player, rather than the boom/bust Vernon of the past. Last year he was under 10 points in 9 out of 16 weeks. I bought into that changing, but it seems to be the same. He will finish the season in the top 6-7 at his position like normal, but he will also kill you as much as he helps you. Like I said, not a huge miss... But he just hasn't performed at the level I expected from him (I drafted him much higher than I like to go on tight ends).

He was still in the top 10-15 TE range in that span

Not really sure I understand your point. I projected him as the #3 tight end and drafted him as such. I also expected him to consistently put up top TE numbers. Going on a streak of being the #15 TE over the past month (and that's only because of one game...the other three have been in the TE30+ range) is not what I envisioned from him, or expected out him. Therefore, a MISS for me.The past 4 games (in my league)

Week 4 - 4.8 points (TE27)

Week 5 - 16.6 points (TE3)

Week 6 - 6.7 points (TE23)

Week 7 - 0 points

That's a disappointment for me, especially from a guy who I projected to be an elite TE this year. I still like the guy and he will put up some more big games this season, but I drafted him and hyped him up as a player who was going to be taking a step to the next level this year. He's not doing that...he's the same misused Vernon Davis.