PreGame - Chargers V Jets (1 Viewer)

[TLEF316]

I think the Chargers absolutely could win this game. If the Jets bring their A game SD probably won't win, but there are reasons to be optimistic if you're a Chargers fan. Rivers, Gates and Sproles should be the keys for SD, along with Floyd in the red zone. If SD wins, expect those guys to have big games.

The Chargers run D has been improving, but I don't think it's much of a match for the Jets running game. It's a shame Jamal Williams and Kris Jenkins are missing this game. I think we'll see the Jets control the tempo of the game with the running game but will see some big throws to Braylon. Will he catch them? Who knows.

As for SD, they'll obviously only go as far as their offense goes. I think their downfall will be...

Can the person accusing Gunz of homerism please address this? TIA

Chase is talking like the Jets are some unbeatable powerhouse, and that the Chargers will have to be very lucky and/or fortunate to win the game. The scary thing is, I think he actually believes it, but it is still a major homer post.

Well, you've been talking like the Jets aren't a very good team, and that they were going to lose to Cincinnati. I figured you might have changed your mind by now.Same formula, again:

Jets rush O >>>>>> Chargers rush O

Jets rush D >>>>> Chargers rush D

Jets pass D >>>>>>> Chargers pass D

Chargers pass O >>>>>>>>> Jets pass O

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD

But lemme guess... if the Jets play the Colts, I'll be crazy for thinking the Jets are some powerhouse that's going to beat the Colts, right?

what no special teams break down?

Jets have the best ST coach in the league and a pretty good coverage unit (Miami game against Ginn being the exception). The return units are mediocre with Leon on IR. Smith has done a good job returning kicks, but he's not someone you have to fear. Cotchery just basically fair catches every punt. Not that familiar with what SD does on ST's.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

what no special teams break down?

Scifres and Kaeding are much better than Weatherford and Feely. Return games are a push. I didn't do a HC break down, either .

LOLBoth teams have glorified co-ordinators coaching their teams IMO.

 

[Michael Brown]

what no special teams break down?

Scifres and Kaeding are much better than Weatherford and Feely. Return games are a push. I didn't do a HC break down, either .

Holes in face/neck area: SD >>>>>>>>>> JetsExtra pounds everywhere: Jets >>>>>>>>>>>SDOverall, pretty even.

 

[TLEF316]

i'll be breaking down the teams based on phsyical attractivness on wednesday. Would you guys prefer position by position or can i just do it based the units that will be going against eachother?

 

[Michael Brown]

i'll be breaking down the teams based on phsyical attractivness on wednesday. Would you guys prefer position by position or can i just do it based the units that will be going against eachother?

Alright alright, I'll stop screwing around.Rex is the motivator that Norv is not, obviously. But both guys are at a point where their teams are going to war for them. And neither seems to have much of an idea of how to run the area of the team that is not his forte.Hopefully Norv doesn't try to get cute now that it's the playoffs. Just keep doing what got them there, and it should be enough. If he rearranges his gameplan over some sort of real or perceived fear about the Jets' pass defense, SD is in a lot of trouble. Defensively, the best bet is to take more chances in the passing game. Blitz a bit more, jump a route or two rather than sitting tight. This Charger defense is at its best when it is opportunistic, because if they play it straight-up, the Jets (and anyone) can move the ball on them with ease. What Pittsburgh and Denver did in the early part of the season, basically.If the Chargers mix it up a bit more and challenge Sanchez, it will probably only take one key turnover to completely turn this game in the Charger favor. That's one thing SD doesn't do -- they don't kill themselves with penalties and turnovers, and they generally take advantage of other team's mistakes.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yep, SD is first in the AFC in takeaway/giveaway ratio.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Yep, SD is first in the AFC in takeaway/giveaway ratio.

Another reason I think they're overrated.

 

[Moniker]

Wow, a lot of optimistic Jets fans in here.

Sorry guys, Chargers roll this week.

 

[Reaper]

Wow, a lot of optimistic Jets fans in here.

Sorry guys, Chargers roll this week.

Not counting Chase, I see 3 Jets fans:Rovers " I can't pick the Jets, but I think the opening line is way high. "

TLEF "chargers are better. The Jets run ends on Sunday. 24-13. "

McGuidance "I like the matchup for the Jets, but not enough to predict a victory."

Me? I said last week was all Gravy... I'm still looking at the big picture and know how valuable this experience is for Sanchez...

Heck, While loving the matchup, I couldn't even go out on a limb and pick aW Vs Cincinatti and SD is a much better team.

To go on the road for the 2nd week and beat one of the best teams in the NFL would take a near miracle - It would take winning the Turnover battle, pressuring Rivers like crazy and playing some of the best offensive football possible....

But, When you run the ball and stop the run, you've got a chance so, Jets fans should and could "Dream". This is fun - I had a bash Saturday night and I'm looking forward to Sunday

And an interesting footnote on at least one of Benson's runs last week - The Jets, due to injury, were taking Harris out of the game in passing situations - The Bengals audibled to a run and caught the Jets with a marginal Safety playing LB.....

SD obviously knows this.

I hope Harris can play even more this week cuz, when he was out, the defense wasn't nearly as good. You don't take your leading tackler out of the game and put in a backup Safety and look good too often.

 

[Crash Davis]

I basically agree with Rovers and McGuidance. I see the Jets having some success running the ball and I think that save for a few big plays from Sproles and Gates against our LBs and safeties the defense can keep us in it. The issue is Sanchez having to make plays at the end to win it. I just can't say with confidence that I expect that to happen. I'd love an upset, but i'm expecting a good effort and a close loss.

 

[Chase Stuart]

To go on the road for the 2nd week and beat one of the best teams in the NFL would take a near miracle - It would take winning the Turnover battle, pressuring Rivers like crazy and playing some of the best offensive football possible....

I think the going on the road for the 1st week is over and done with, so you can forget that part of the analysis.Beating SD in SD would hardly be miraculous. Most of the Chargers fans I respect were not happy at the thought of facing the Jets. I have been saying for awhile that the Jets are underrated and SD is overrated, so I'm certainly not going to be surprised if the Jets win.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

I think the Chargers absolutely could win this game. If the Jets bring their A game SD probably won't win, but there are reasons to be optimistic if you're a Chargers fan. Rivers, Gates and Sproles should be the keys for SD, along with Floyd in the red zone. If SD wins, expect those guys to have big games.

The Chargers run D has been improving, but I don't think it's much of a match for the Jets running game. It's a shame Jamal Williams and Kris Jenkins are missing this game. I think we'll see the Jets control the tempo of the game with the running game but will see some big throws to Braylon. Will he catch them? Who knows.

As for SD, they'll obviously only go as far as their offense goes. I think their downfall will be...

Can the person accusing Gunz of homerism please address this? TIA

Chase is talking like the Jets are some unbeatable powerhouse, and that the Chargers will have to be very lucky and/or fortunate to win the game. The scary thing is, I think he actually believes it, but it is still a major homer post.

Well, you've been talking like the Jets aren't a very good team, and that they were going to lose to Cincinnati. I figured you might have changed your mind by now.Same formula, again:

Jets rush O >>>>>> Chargers rush O

Jets rush D >>>>> Chargers rush D

Jets pass D >>>>>>> Chargers pass D

Chargers pass O >>>>>>>>> Jets pass O

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD

But lemme guess... if the Jets play the Colts, I'll be crazy for thinking the Jets are some powerhouse that's going to beat the Colts, right?

I must be reading the line wrong. I thought it said San Diego was favored by 9.

 

[MaddHatter]

It will be an entertaining game

 

[Titus Pullo]

...

you get a for any post because of your avatar.

 

[Michael Brown]

To go on the road for the 2nd week and beat one of the best teams in the NFL would take a near miracle - It would take winning the Turnover battle, pressuring Rivers like crazy and playing some of the best offensive football possible....

I think the going on the road for the 1st week is over and done with, so you can forget that part of the analysis.Beating SD in SD would hardly be miraculous. Most of the Chargers fans I respect were not happy at the thought of facing the Jets. I have been saying for awhile that the Jets are underrated and SD is overrated, so I'm certainly not going to be surprised if the Jets win.

The first signs of a lack of confidence from young Chase...In all seriousness, it wouldn't take a miracle for the Jets to win. The Chargers are playing great (duh), but the margin of difference between a good team and a great team is not very large in the NFL. I certainly think San Diego matched up better with the Pats than the Jets because I don't think NE can stop us. And after watching the Ravens, I feel that even more strongly.

No matter what happens this weekend, the Jets are going to be monstrous in 2010 and beyond with what they're building. I'm just hoping it waits until the fall.

 

[Chargers86]

I see this game appearing a lot closer on the scoreboard than it actually is. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Jets scoring first , but the Chargers will respond quickly take the lead for the rest of the game holding a 3-10 point lead. The Jets will have long sustained drives running the football down our throats, mostly ending in field goals. In the end, these long sustained drives will be their downfall if they don't score TD's. As good as your defense is, the Chargers can rack up points pretty quickly once Rivers gets going.

Chargers 27

Jets 22

 

[MCguidance]

I see this game appearing a lot closer on the scoreboard than it actually is. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Jets scoring first , but the Chargers will respond quickly take the lead for the rest of the game holding a 3-10 point lead. The Jets will have long sustained drives running the football down our throats, mostly ending in field goals. In the end, these long sustained drives will be their downfall if they don't score TD's. As good as your defense is, the Chargers can rack up points pretty quickly once Rivers gets going.

Chargers 27

Jets 22

This is a great point, one that Chase mentioned in another thread, and that I agree with. Against the Bolts FGs will not do. They leave too many points inside the 20. If that continues, the Jets hurt their chances even more.

 

[Rovers]

Wow, a lot of optimistic Jets fans in here.

Sorry guys, Chargers roll this week.

Not counting Chase, I see 3 Jets fans:Rovers " I can't pick the Jets, but I think the opening line is way high. "

TLEF "chargers are better. The Jets run ends on Sunday. 24-13. "

McGuidance "I like the matchup for the Jets, but not enough to predict a victory."

Me? I said last week was all Gravy... I'm still looking at the big picture and know how valuable this experience is for Sanchez...

Heck, While loving the matchup, I couldn't even go out on a limb and pick aW Vs Cincinatti and SD is a much better team.

To go on the road for the 2nd week and beat one of the best teams in the NFL would take a near miracle - It would take winning the Turnover battle, pressuring Rivers like crazy and playing some of the best offensive football possible....

But, When you run the ball and stop the run, you've got a chance so, Jets fans should and could "Dream". This is fun - I had a bash Saturday night and I'm looking forward to Sunday

And an interesting footnote on at least one of Benson's runs last week - The Jets, due to injury, were taking Harris out of the game in passing situations - The Bengals audibled to a run and caught the Jets with a marginal Safety playing LB.....

SD obviously knows this.

I hope Harris can play even more this week cuz, when he was out, the defense wasn't nearly as good. You don't take your leading tackler out of the game and put in a backup Safety and look good too often.

LOL... so Jets fans predicting a loss under two scores is being optomistic? Chase is a homer... no secret there. But he does know the Jets.When the Bengals jumped out to a 7 point lead, that was a bad sign, but it was early, and the Jets didn't have to panic and start throwing. Even if the Jets go down two scores in the first half, they will continue to run the ball. Sanchez is getting better at play action, and he'll throw deep a time or two trying to catch SD cheating into the box, but they will run and run some more.

I agree with McG... Harris was limited. Hopefully he's closer to 95% for this game. When completely healthy he would have big time trouble with Gates.

I think Ryan may play more zone than expected. VJ is really good, but SD has multiple weapons. You could shut VJ down with Revis, but still get burnt badly. I think Ryan will try to give Rivers man coverage looks and disguise some zone D play calls. Ryan has done it before. This isn't like playing Houston and putting Revis on AJ the entire game. I'm not sure it's in the Jets' best interest to take Revis out of the game in exchange for taking VJ out of the game. I think Ryan will change it up at times and try to put Revis in a position to make more plays. Ryan tries to do the unexpected.

I can see the Jets playing a lot more nickel. And zone. This may not be a blitz crazy game plan. Turner will have his pieces on the board too, he's a very good offensive minded coach, and it should make for an interesting chess match from the CS's.

 

[NYRAGE]

Should be a close game, but Sproles and Gates scare the hell out of me. If the Jets can get an early lead or keep the game close, then I'm feeling good going into the second half.

If the Jets can't win this week, I'll root for SD to go all the way. Big fan of LT in his prime.

 

[Father Guido Sarducci]

No-one has solved the Charger offense all year long. The Chargers have scored at least 20 points in every game they've played. They beat the #2 defense on the road in Dallas. I like them to beat the #1 defense at home. The 3 losses by San Diego were massive defensive breakdowns.

I wouldn't count on the Jets shutting down the Chargers. If the Jets win, they will have to score more than 20.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Well, you've been talking like the Jets aren't a very good team, and that they were going to lose to Cincinnati. I figured you might have changed your mind by now.

Same formula, again:

Jets rush O >>>>>> Chargers rush O

Jets rush D >>>>> Chargers rush Dhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=517152&qpid=11356167

Jets pass D >>>>>>> Chargers pass D

Chargers pass O >>>>>>>>> Jets pass O

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD

W/re to the bold, really? The Jets passing offense is almost the worst in football, while the San Diego pass defense is very good. Not suggesting the Bolts corners are on par with Revis and Co., but Jammer and Cromartie are as good a duo as any outside of the Meadowlands. And the Charger run defense has been much improved over the last 8 weeks or so. They were able to contain the Dallas running game, Chris Johnson and the Titans, and the Bengals over the past 6 weeks. Replacing Clinton Hart with Kevin Ellison has really helped the run D.

The Jets are playing well and anyone still alive has a punchers chance. But expecting a team that shouldn't have even made the playoffs were it not for MVPs getting benched to go 3000k miles and beat a 13-3 squad that has won 11 in a row is a bit much.

Jets94 lives....

 

[msommer]

Going to the left coast might also have an impact, no?

It's not just a road game, it's really far away from home...

 

[BRONG]

Going to the left coast might also have an impact, no?It's not just a road game, it's really far away from home...

I think the impact is lessened with the extra day off they're getting -- that helps a lot.Baltimore, on the other hand, is the one that should be the most road weary. They had to go to Pitt; then all the way to Oakland; then at New England (it's still the road); and now on the road again only 6 days later...against a fresh Indy team.

 

[TLEF316]

The Jets are playing well and anyone still alive has a punchers chance. But expecting a team that shouldn't have even made the playoffs were it not for MVPs getting benched to go 3000k miles and beat a 13-3 squad that has won 11 in a row is a bit much.

well, they did do it a few years ago (with a worse team). Of course, that was mostly due to a rookie Kaeding missing kicks. But it happened.

 

[BassNBrew]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

 

[Rovers]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

Seriously? Numbers from the regular season:Yards passing/surrendered per game

SD 271 (5th)

NYJ 154 (1st)

Passing TD's, total scored/given up

SD 29 (5th)

NYJ 8 (1st)

Yes, SD scored on Dallas, but Dallas gave up 19 passing TD;s this year. More than twice what the Jets gave up. Jets gave up 11 rush TD's, Dallas, 7.

You really think that the SD pass offense is so clearly superior to the Jets pass D? The numbers say the Jets win that matchup, and Chase only called it a push. You called that an epic fail?

Pardon me, but it seems to me that the "optomism" in this thread is tilting way towards the SD homers here. Jets fans are calling a close (less than a TD loss) and the SD folks think it's going to be some sort of crushing defeat for the Jets.

The pressure is ALL on SD. If they lose, it's a horrible season. I hope the Chargers go into this game with the same "gonna be easy" attitude thier fans have. Unfortunately, I think the Chargers will take the Jets much more seriously than thier fans do.

 

[ckl81]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

Seriously? Numbers from the regular season:Yards passing/surrendered per game

SD 271 (5th)

NYJ 154 (1st)

Passing TD's, total scored/given up

SD 29 (5th)

NYJ 8 (1st)

Yes, SD scored on Dallas, but Dallas gave up 19 passing TD;s this year. More than twice what the Jets gave up. Jets gave up 11 rush TD's, Dallas, 7.

You really think that the SD pass offense is so clearly superior to the Jets pass D? The numbers say the Jets win that matchup, and Chase only called it a push. You called that an epic fail?

Pardon me, but it seems to me that the "optomism" in this thread is tilting way towards the SD homers here. Jets fans are calling a close (less than a TD loss) and the SD folks think it's going to be some sort of crushing defeat for the Jets.

The pressure is ALL on SD. If they lose, it's a horrible season. I hope the Chargers go into this game with the same "gonna be easy" attitude thier fans have. Unfortunately, I think the Chargers will take the Jets much more seriously than thier fans do.

Did you take a look at BassNBrew's closely followed team and location?

 

[Tau837]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

Seriously? Numbers from the regular season:Yards passing/surrendered per game

SD 271 (5th)

NYJ 154 (1st)

Passing TD's, total scored/given up

SD 29 (5th)

NYJ 8 (1st)

Yes, SD scored on Dallas, but Dallas gave up 19 passing TD;s this year. More than twice what the Jets gave up. Jets gave up 11 rush TD's, Dallas, 7.

You really think that the SD pass offense is so clearly superior to the Jets pass D? The numbers say the Jets win that matchup, and Chase only called it a push. You called that an epic fail?

Pardon me, but it seems to me that the "optomism" in this thread is tilting way towards the SD homers here. Jets fans are calling a close (less than a TD loss) and the SD folks think it's going to be some sort of crushing defeat for the Jets.

The pressure is ALL on SD. If they lose, it's a horrible season. I hope the Chargers go into this game with the same "gonna be easy" attitude thier fans have. Unfortunately, I think the Chargers will take the Jets much more seriously than thier fans do.

Not really commenting on the point of your post, but the stats you are showing for San Diego don't indicate the true rank of their passing game. They are 5th in passing yards and passing TDs, but that is despite being tied for 23rd in pass attempts. San Diego is first in yards per attempt by a large margin and 4th in TD percentage.Also, while there is absolutely no doubt the Jets have a great defense overall and a great pass defense, excuse me if I'm not overwhelmed by the competition they faced in compiling their rank:

Houston - 145 passing yards (Schaub 166)

New England - 216 passing yards (Brady 216) - no Welker

Tennessee - 159 passing yards (Collins 170)

New Orleans - 190 passing yards (Brees 190)

Miami - 262 passing yards (Henne 241)

Buffalo - 154 passing yards (Fitzpatrick 116)

Oakland - 144 passing yards (Gradkowski 97)

Miami - 52 passing yards (Henne 112)

Jacksonville - 208 passing yards (Garrard 221)

New England - 299 passing yards (Brady 310)

Carolina - 104 passing yards (Delhomme 130)

Buffalo - 71 passing yards (Fitzpatrick 98)

Tampa - 81 passing yards (Freeman 93)

Atlanta - 152 passing yards (Ryan 152) - Turner hurt on first carry

Indy - 213 passing yards (Manning 192) - Manning left game in third quarter

Cincy - 0 passing yards (O'Sullivan 31) - Cincy laid down

I think it's fair to say San Diego best compares to Houston, New England, and New Orleans from the Jets' schedule. (I didn't include Indy since the Indy starters didn't play most of the second half.) Those teams averaged 213 passing yards against the Jets in 4 games. That is still really good pass defense by the Jets, to be sure, but it does make the numbers look a bit better for San Diego.

It's also interesting that if we exclude Indy due to the resting of starters, the last time the Jets played a good passing offense was the second New England game, eight weeks ago. That's a long stretch the Jets have played without having to face a great passing offense. And that was the Jets' worst pass defense game of the year. (And if we do include the portion of the Indy game in which Indy played its starters, it was a similar result to the New England game.)

I'm cautiously optimistic that the Chargers are going to be able to move the ball well enough. I think the key is getting into the end zone and not settling for field goals. Every field goal will help the Jets a lot, by enabling them to keep running the ball, which is how their offense is successful and also shortens the game.

 

[djcolts]

No-one has solved the Charger offense all year long. The Chargers have scored at least 20 points in every game they've played. They beat the #2 defense on the road in Dallas. I like them to beat the #1 defense at home. The 3 losses by San Diego were massive defensive breakdowns. I wouldn't count on the Jets shutting down the Chargers. If the Jets win, they will have to score more than 20.

True, but let's be a little fair about the Dallas game - they scored 10 of the 20 points after Ware was carted off the field, including a 3rd and medium conversion the play after the injury that changed the entire game.

 

[BassNBrew]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

Seriously? Numbers from the regular season:Yards passing/surrendered per game

SD 271 (5th)

NYJ 154 (1st)

Passing TD's, total scored/given up

SD 29 (5th)

NYJ 8 (1st)

Yes, SD scored on Dallas, but Dallas gave up 19 passing TD;s this year. More than twice what the Jets gave up. Jets gave up 11 rush TD's, Dallas, 7.

You really think that the SD pass offense is so clearly superior to the Jets pass D? The numbers say the Jets win that matchup, and Chase only called it a push. You called that an epic fail?

Pardon me, but it seems to me that the "optomism" in this thread is tilting way towards the SD homers here. Jets fans are calling a close (less than a TD loss) and the SD folks think it's going to be some sort of crushing defeat for the Jets.

The pressure is ALL on SD. If they lose, it's a horrible season. I hope the Chargers go into this game with the same "gonna be easy" attitude thier fans have. Unfortunately, I think the Chargers will take the Jets much more seriously than thier fans do.

I'd love nothing more than to see the Jets ##### slap Rivers. But I don't see it happening...2009 Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 13 @Houston Won 24-7

Sep 20 New England Won 16-9

Sep 27 Tennessee Won 24-17

Oct 4 @New Orleans Lost 10-24

Oct 12 @Miami Lost 27-31

Oct 18 Buffalo Lost 13-16

Oct 25 @Oakland Won 38-0

Nov 1 Miami Lost 25-30

Week 9 BYE

Nov 15 Jacksonville Lost 22-24

Nov 22 @New England Lost 14-31

Nov 29 Carolina Won 17-6

Dec 3 @Buffalo (Toronto, Ont.) Won 19-13

Dec 13 @Tampa Bay Won 26-3

Dec 20 Atlanta Lost 7-10

Dec 27 @Indianapolis Won 29-15

Jan 3 Cincinnati Won 37-0

Jan 9 @Cincinnati Won 24-14

The Jets nullified Brady once and got spanked by him once. They did a great job against Schuab and decent against Brees. Otherwise thay rolled up numbers against NFL greats like Delhomme, Russel Gradkowski, Painter, Fitzpatrick x 2, Henne x 2, and Josh Freeman. That's half their season against QBs who shouldn't have been starting this year. I think Rivers and the Chargers bring a slightly better offensive resume to the table than then entire slated the Jets have faced thus far. After watching Arizona dismantle Green Bay, I'm not putting a ton of stock into regular season performances.

 

[BassNBrew]

If you want to do it based on matchups...

Chargers pass O vs. Jets pass D = push FAIL

Jets rush O vs. Chargers rush D = big edge, Jets

Chargers rush O vs. Jets rush D = big edge, Jets

Jets pass O vs. Chargers pass D = small edge, SD Fail

Corrected.

Seriously? Numbers from the regular season:Yards passing/surrendered per game

SD 271 (5th)

NYJ 154 (1st)

Passing TD's, total scored/given up

SD 29 (5th)

NYJ 8 (1st)

Yes, SD scored on Dallas, but Dallas gave up 19 passing TD;s this year. More than twice what the Jets gave up. Jets gave up 11 rush TD's, Dallas, 7.

You really think that the SD pass offense is so clearly superior to the Jets pass D? The numbers say the Jets win that matchup, and Chase only called it a push. You called that an epic fail?

Pardon me, but it seems to me that the "optomism" in this thread is tilting way towards the SD homers here. Jets fans are calling a close (less than a TD loss) and the SD folks think it's going to be some sort of crushing defeat for the Jets.

The pressure is ALL on SD. If they lose, it's a horrible season. I hope the Chargers go into this game with the same "gonna be easy" attitude thier fans have. Unfortunately, I think the Chargers will take the Jets much more seriously than thier fans do.

Not really commenting on the point of your post, but the stats you are showing for San Diego don't indicate the true rank of their passing game. They are 5th in passing yards and passing TDs, but that is despite being tied for 23rd in pass attempts. San Diego is first in yards per attempt by a large margin and 4th in TD percentage.Also, while there is absolutely no doubt the Jets have a great defense overall and a great pass defense, excuse me if I'm not overwhelmed by the competition they faced in compiling their rank:

Houston - 145 passing yards (Schaub 166)

New England - 216 passing yards (Brady 216)

Tennessee - 159 passing yards (Collins 170)

New Orleans - 190 passing yards (Brees 190)

Miami - 262 passing yards (Henne 241)

Buffalo - 154 passing yards (Fitzpatrick 116)

Oakland - 144 passing yards (Gradkowski 97)

Miami - 52 passing yards (Henne 112)

Jacksonville - 208 passing yards (Garrard 221)

New England - 299 passing yards (Brady 310)

Carolina - 104 passing yards (Delhomme 130)

Buffalo - 71 passing yards (Fitzpatrick 98)

Tampa - 81 passing yards (Freeman 93)

Atlanta - 152 passing yards (Ryan 152) - Turner hurt on first carry

Indy - 213 passing yards (Manning 192) - Manning left game in third quarter

Cincy - 0 passing yards (O'Sullivan 31) - Cincy laid down

I think it's fair to say San Diego best compares to Houston, New England, and New Orleans from the Jets' schedule. (I didn't include Indy since the Indy starters didn't play most of the second half.) Those teams averaged 213 passing yards against the Jets in 4 games. That is still really good pass defense by the Jets, to be sure, but it does make the numbers look a bit better for San Diego.

It's also interesting that if we exclude Indy due to the resting of starters, the last time the Jets played a good passing offense was the second New England game, eight weeks ago. That's a long stretch the Jets have played without having to face a great passing offense. And that was the Jets' worst pass defense game of the year. (And if we do include the portion of the Indy game in which Indy played its starters, it was a similar result to the New England game.)

I'm cautiously optimistic that the Chargers are going to be able to move the ball well enough. I think the key is getting into the end zone and not settling for field goals. Every field goal will help the Jets a lot, by enabling them to keep running the ball, which is how their offense is successful and also shortens the game.

What he said.

 

[Ghost Rider]

No-one has solved the Charger offense all year long. The Chargers have scored at least 20 points in every game they've played. They beat the #2 defense on the road in Dallas. I like them to beat the #1 defense at home. The 3 losses by San Diego were massive defensive breakdowns.

Actually, the Chargers offense only scored 16 points in the week 6 loss to Denver (the other 7 came on a punt return). The Broncos got a ton of pressure on Rivers in that game, and completely disrupted their offense. And the Broncos scored two touchdowns in that game on returns, so I wouldn't say that loss was because of massive defensive breakdowns.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If you want to look at SOS, you should do it for both teams. Rivers hasn't faced a murderer's row of pass defenses, either. The Jets have by far the best pass D in the league, so no pass D is truly comparable. The Broncos and Bengals come closest.

In those games, Rivers went:

33 passes, 274 yards, 1 TD, 23 points, loss

22 passes, 145 yards, 1 TD, 33 points, win

38 passes, 308 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 27 points, win

That's one loss, one game of just 145 yards, and a 2 INT game against the three toughest pass defenses. The Jets may have faced an easier than average SOS, but I think Rivers has faced an easier than average SOS, too.

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

 

[Tau837]

If you want to look at SOS, you should do it for both teams. Rivers hasn't faced a murderer's row of pass defenses, either. The Jets have by far the best pass D in the league, so no pass D is truly comparable. The Broncos and Bengals come closest.In those games, Rivers went:33 passes, 274 yards, 1 TD, 23 points, loss22 passes, 145 yards, 1 TD, 33 points, win38 passes, 308 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 27 points, winThat's one loss, one game of just 145 yards, and a 2 INT game against the three toughest pass defenses. The Jets may have faced an easier than average SOS, but I think Rivers has faced an easier than average SOS, too. I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

Rivers had a combined 98.3 QB rating in those three games. I'll take that, and I'm not sure why that would be any reason for optimism on the Jets' part. My point was the Jets defense didn't fare nearly as well against the top QBs (Brady, Manning, Brees, Schaub) as they did against the other QBs they faced, who were generally below average at best. So who cares if there isn't much difference between Rivers and Manning or Brees? My point would be the same.And LOL at citing the 145 yard game as a positive sign. Rivers was 17/22 in that game with 1 TD and 0 interceptions. He threw a 24 yard pass to Gates, who was pushed out of bounds at the 1 yard line, so he just missed a second TD. And with the Chargers blowing out the Broncos, Rivers only attempted 2 passes in the 4th quarter.

 

[BassNBrew]

If you want to look at SOS, you should do it for both teams. Rivers hasn't faced a murderer's row of pass defenses, either. The Jets have by far the best pass D in the league, so no pass D is truly comparable. The Broncos and Bengals come closest.In those games, Rivers went:33 passes, 274 yards, 1 TD, 23 points, loss22 passes, 145 yards, 1 TD, 33 points, win38 passes, 308 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 27 points, winThat's one loss, one game of just 145 yards, and a 2 INT game against the three toughest pass defenses. The Jets may have faced an easier than average SOS, but I think Rivers has faced an easier than average SOS, too. I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

If Rivers played half his games against second string defenses then you would have a point. As bad as Sanchez was at times this season, even with a killer rushing offense, he's still leaps and bounds better than most of the QBs the Jets D faced.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

What does the difference between them and whoever is 2nd best have to do with the matchup? Weird logic. I agree Rivers is the best QB in football. I rate him a 95. Right behind him is a group of QBs I rate at 93 or 94. I agree the Jets have the best pass D in football. I rate them an 90. The next best team is just an 85. Nice gap for the Jets. But I'll take the 95 (Rivers) to whip the 90 (Jets). Here's a cliche that I think applies: There is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. It's true and it gives Rivers a substantial advantage in the mathcup. Not a push. Not a slight edge. A substantial advantage. That guy is ridiculous with the long accuracy. Dallas had his receivers smothered several times that week, but there is just no defense for a perfectly thrown ball.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

What does the difference between them and whoever is 2nd best have to do with the matchup? Weird logic. I agree Rivers is the best QB in football. I rate him a 95. Right behind him is a group of QBs I rate at 93 or 94. I agree the Jets have the best pass D in football. I rate them an 90. The next best team is just an 85. Nice gap for the Jets. But I'll take the 95 (Rivers) to whip the 90 (Jets). Here's a cliche that I think applies: There is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. It's true and it gives Rivers a substantial advantage in the mathcup. Not a push. Not a slight edge. A substantial advantage. That guy is ridiculous with the long accuracy. Dallas had his receivers smothered several times that week, but there is just no defense for a perfectly thrown ball.

Well, I don't see much to indicate that Rivers is a 95 and the Jets are a 90. Probably more like the Jets are a 98 and Rivers is a 95. Remember what push means in this context. It means an average game for an average QB. So maybe 200 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 points scored. It's not shutting someone down. And, of course, if the Jets pass defense does play well and the Jets are winning, it's likely that Rivers gets even more attempts than normal, and comes close to 300 yards in a losing effort (but on 40+ attempts).

 

[twitch]

Just wanted to wish Jets fans good luck this weekend. Im one of these guys who pulls for the division when my team's done, so I hope that great D of yours steps up and takes care of business. I know its a tall order literally, handling those SD receivers. Gates would seem to be the key matchup, because I expect Revis to put the clamps on Jackson. No doubt your boys will contain that SD running game. Can you run the ball effectively? And will Sanchez play like a veteran on basically his "home" turf back in Southern Cal? I gotta say, Jets fans. I like your chances. Give 'em hell!

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

What does the difference between them and whoever is 2nd best have to do with the matchup? Weird logic. I agree Rivers is the best QB in football. I rate him a 95. Right behind him is a group of QBs I rate at 93 or 94. I agree the Jets have the best pass D in football. I rate them an 90. The next best team is just an 85. Nice gap for the Jets. But I'll take the 95 (Rivers) to whip the 90 (Jets). Here's a cliche that I think applies: There is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. It's true and it gives Rivers a substantial advantage in the mathcup. Not a push. Not a slight edge. A substantial advantage. That guy is ridiculous with the long accuracy. Dallas had his receivers smothered several times that week, but there is just no defense for a perfectly thrown ball.

Well, I don't see much to indicate that Rivers is a 95 and the Jets are a 90. Probably more like the Jets are a 98 and Rivers is a 95.

Don't see much to indicate? You either fail to understand or disagree with the cliche then. That IS what indicates those numbers. A great defense cannot rate higher than 90, imo. That's the 78/79 Steelers who gave up 31 points to Dallas in the Super Bowl. I gave the Jets, who are really more like an 84, the benefit of being the greatest secondary to ever take the field. That's a 90 because there is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. QBs have the advantage, several advantages for that matter. It's not just the nature of the game, it's in the rules.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Don't see much to indicate? You either fail to understand or disagree with the cliche then. That IS what indicates those numbers. A great defense cannot rate higher than 90, imo. That's the 78/79 Steelers who gave up 31 points to Dallas in the Super Bowl. I gave the Jets, who are really more like an 84, the benefit of being the greatest secondary to ever take the field. That's a 90 because there is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. QBs have the advantage, several advantages for that matter. It's not just the nature of the game, it's in the rules.

Well yeah, that's why I didn't understand it. I had no idea a defense can't rate higher than a 90.What happened, btw to "NE 2007 - 100" offense come playoff time, btw? Or the "IND 2004 - 96" offense?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Don't see much to indicate? You either fail to understand or disagree with the cliche then. That IS what indicates those numbers. A great defense cannot rate higher than 90, imo. That's the 78/79 Steelers who gave up 31 points to Dallas in the Super Bowl. I gave the Jets, who are really more like an 84, the benefit of being the greatest secondary to ever take the field. That's a 90 because there is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. QBs have the advantage, several advantages for that matter. It's not just the nature of the game, it's in the rules.

Well yeah, that's why I didn't understand it. I had no idea a defense can't rate higher than a 90.

Well, now ya know.

 

[Rovers]

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

What does the difference between them and whoever is 2nd best have to do with the matchup? Weird logic. I agree Rivers is the best QB in football. I rate him a 95. Right behind him is a group of QBs I rate at 93 or 94. I agree the Jets have the best pass D in football. I rate them an 90. The next best team is just an 85. Nice gap for the Jets. But I'll take the 95 (Rivers) to whip the 90 (Jets). Here's a cliche that I think applies: There is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. It's true and it gives Rivers a substantial advantage in the mathcup. Not a push. Not a slight edge. A substantial advantage. That guy is ridiculous with the long accuracy. Dallas had his receivers smothered several times that week, but there is just no defense for a perfectly thrown ball.

Well, I don't see much to indicate that Rivers is a 95 and the Jets are a 90. Probably more like the Jets are a 98 and Rivers is a 95.

Don't see much to indicate? You either fail to understand or disagree with the cliche then. That IS what indicates those numbers. A great defense cannot rate higher than 90, imo. That's the 78/79 Steelers who gave up 31 points to Dallas in the Super Bowl. I gave the Jets, who are really more like an 84, the benefit of being the greatest secondary to ever take the field. That's a 90 because there is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. QBs have the advantage, several advantages for that matter. It's not just the nature of the game, it's in the rules.

So, you are saying Rivers only throws perfect passes? NO quarteback is perfect. There are so may other things that come into play... the WR getting knocked off his route, the pass rush, disguised coverages. Aside from that, I have seen Revis defend a perfect outside shoulder sideline pass a couple of times this year. That is the hardest perfect pass to defend against. Now, please don't jump on this and claim I'm saying Revis can do that all the time... he can't. I'm just saying that I have seen him defend the perfect pass. He can't do it 75% of the time, not even 50%, but he can and has done it. He's been beaten too, of course.Now, outside of the Revis matchup, Rivers is going to hit Sproles, Gates and even Floyd with some regularity, but I just can't see any ojective reason to think that the Jets pass D is going to be sooo overmatched in this game. I think the Jets will have to score at least, at least 24 points to win. I could be wrong about that, on either side of the coin. Sometimes a great D destroys a very good offensive team, sometimes a great offense walks all over a really good defense.

These two units make for a closer matchup than a lot of people seem to think. Like Rex Ryan said today... sumpthin's gonna give.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think Rivers is the best QB in the league, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league, so push. But if you have to break the push, I think it's clear that the difference between the Jets and the #2 pass defense (who?) is larger than the difference between Rivers and Manning or Rivers and Brees.

What does the difference between them and whoever is 2nd best have to do with the matchup? Weird logic. I agree Rivers is the best QB in football. I rate him a 95. Right behind him is a group of QBs I rate at 93 or 94. I agree the Jets have the best pass D in football. I rate them an 90. The next best team is just an 85. Nice gap for the Jets. But I'll take the 95 (Rivers) to whip the 90 (Jets). Here's a cliche that I think applies: There is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. It's true and it gives Rivers a substantial advantage in the mathcup. Not a push. Not a slight edge. A substantial advantage. That guy is ridiculous with the long accuracy. Dallas had his receivers smothered several times that week, but there is just no defense for a perfectly thrown ball.

Well, I don't see much to indicate that Rivers is a 95 and the Jets are a 90. Probably more like the Jets are a 98 and Rivers is a 95.

Don't see much to indicate? You either fail to understand or disagree with the cliche then. That IS what indicates those numbers. A great defense cannot rate higher than 90, imo. That's the 78/79 Steelers who gave up 31 points to Dallas in the Super Bowl. I gave the Jets, who are really more like an 84, the benefit of being the greatest secondary to ever take the field. That's a 90 because there is no defense for a perfectly thrown ball. QBs have the advantage, several advantages for that matter. It's not just the nature of the game, it's in the rules.

So, you are saying Rivers only throws perfect passes? NO quarteback is perfect. There are so may other things that come into play... the WR getting knocked off his route, the pass rush, disguised coverages. Aside from that, I have seen Revis defend a perfect outside shoulder sideline pass a couple of times this year. That is the hardest perfect pass to defend against. Now, please don't jump on this and claim I'm saying Revis can do that all the time... he can't. I'm just saying that I have seen him defend the perfect pass. He can't do it 75% of the time, not even 50%, but he can and has done it. He's been beaten too, of course.Now, outside of the Revis matchup, Rivers is going to hit Sproles, Gates and even Floyd with some regularity, but I just can't see any ojective reason to think that the Jets pass D is going to be sooo overmatched in this game. I think the Jets will have to score at least, at least 24 points to win. I could be wrong about that, on either side of the coin. Sometimes a great D destroys a very good offensive team, sometimes a great offense walks all over a really good defense.

These two units make for a closer matchup than a lot of people seem to think. Like Rex Ryan said today... sumpthin's gonna give.

I'm just messing with Chase, gb. He deserves it. Reading him made me think the Chargers should consider not showing up to avoid the embarrassment.

 

[Rovers]

LOL.... every Jets fan in this thread is picking SD... but all everyone remembers is what Chase says. Chase is as big a homer as they come. Thing is, no matter what you say to him, he won't ruffle... not even a little!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Let's look at some pass stats:

TD/100 attempts:

SDG O: 5.6

Lgavg: 4.2

NYJ D: 1.6

INT/100 attempts:

SDG O: 1.9

Lgavg: 3.1

NYJ D: 3.4

Yards per attempt:

SDG O: 8.7

Lgavg: 7.0

NYJ D: 5.4

Net yards per attempt:

SDG O: 8.0

Lgavg: 6.2

NYJ D: 4.6

Adjusted yards per attempt:

SDG O: 8.4

Lgavg: 6.0

NYJ D: 4.0

Adjusted net yards per attempt:

SDG O: 7.7

Lgavg: 5.3

NYJ D: 3.3

Passing first downs

SDG O: 222

Lgavg: 180

NYJ D: 128

Overall, I think the passing matchup is a push.

 

[Chaos Commish]

LOL.... every Jets fan in this thread is picking SD... but all everyone remembers is what Chase says. Chase is as big a homer as they come. Thing is, no matter what you say to him, he won't ruffle... not even a little!

I know, and he's replying again now.For the record, I think the Jets OL can shorten the game and level the playing field. I do believe in the point I was making about a Rivers vs any secondary. He will have the advantage, as will Manning, imo. The Chargers are put together in a manner that any matchup will look tough for them simply because they have struggled to run the ball. But they have plenty of talent and are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. On any given Sunday always applies though. I'm a Cowboy fan in SD who cannot help but enjoy it when the local team does well, but I won't fret if the Jets get this one. It would be a great story, and I think that would make for a really interesting game, because I have a hard time picturing it happening. The Chargers could lay an egg, but I doubt that happens, so the Jets will have to do what they do at a very very high level for 4 quarters. Hats off to them if they do that.

 

[Chase Stuart]

LOL.... every Jets fan in this thread is picking SD... but all everyone remembers is what Chase says. Chase is as big a homer as they come. Thing is, no matter what you say to him, he won't ruffle... not even a little!

I know, and he's replying again now.For the record, I think the Jets OL can shorten the game and level the playing field. I do believe in the point I was making about a Rivers vs any secondary. He will have the advantage, as will Manning, imo. The Chargers are put together in a manner that any matchup will look tough for them simply because they have struggled to run the ball. But they have plenty of talent and are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. On any given Sunday always applies though. I'm a Cowboy fan in SD who cannot help but enjoy it when the local team does well, but I won't fret if the Jets get this one. It would be a great story, and I think that would make for a really interesting game, because I have a hard time picturing it happening. The Chargers could lay an egg, but I doubt that happens, so the Jets will have to do what they do at a very very high level for 4 quarters. Hats off to them if they do that.

Each team gets the same possessions in a game, plus or minus one. The whole shortening the game thing is a myth; it's not something run oriented/defensive teams do, since it also gives those teams fewer possessions. Shortening the game is something bad teams do, since bad teams are more likely to outscore good teams over the course of 8 possessions than over the course of 12. And that's just because there's more randomness involved; a missed tackle can extend 1/8 of the drives in the game that way as opposed to 1/12 of the drives.So, the Jets shouldn't shorten the game by running the ball and controlling the clock. But it would make sense for SD to try and increase their TOP not to keep their defense off the field but to maximize variance in the game. This doesn't mean they should run more often, but rather after completions, milk the play clock.

 

[Chaos Commish]

just wow... and

 

[Rovers]

Chase, you really lost me with that one.

When a team faces an explosive offense, it is always better to control the clock and minimize their possessions. It isn't a good team/bad team thing at all.

If Ryan comes out with some disguised schemes that Rivers has initial trouble with, the fewer times Rivers has to make plays against it, the longer it will take SD to read the defense. The more snaps (and possessions) an offense like SD gets, the better for them. They are a quick strike O. The Jets are not. They are a running, ball control offense. If the Chargers get fewer possessions, it means the Jets are getting drives going, sustaining them and scoring some points.

 

[IHEARTFF]

So not only should the Jets, a healthy underdog, not try to shorten the game. But the Chargers should try to shorten it since they're a bad team. That is some strange thinking there. I actually think the Jets will cover the spread and have a chance to win, but they've got to play a damn near perfect game to do so.