DoubleG
Footballguy
Nice work. Just sayin'.
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Put the Trent Richardson pipe down! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GreenNGold
- Start date
Bighittz56
Footballguy
Avoiding Richardson as well. 2 knee surgeries already, and rookie RB's typically underwhelm. On a side note, Hardesty looked pretty good the other day with the exception of the fumble on his first carry.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I'm not dying for Richardson this year and won't be landing him very often (play in keepers where he's going for crazy prices)......
But he's got to be a consideration pretty early.
How many RBs should get the vast majority of the carries, along with RB receptions and GL carries?
How many RBs will absolutely get all of those things, even if they underperform for long stretches?
Unless a guy simply can't do the job, aren't those the 2 most important issues when it comes to finding stud RBs?
It doesn't take special talent (relatively speaking) to be a top 10 fantasy RB, but it takes a special opportunity. Richardson has that.
Richardson's only issue is health really. There's the issue that he hasn't done it at this level yet, but "being too young" is hardly a knock on an NFL RB.
The supporting cast certainly isn't the problem. Bad teams love to take young RBs and make them fantasy studs.
Being on a great team is probably a worse problem to have.
But he's got to be a consideration pretty early.
How many RBs should get the vast majority of the carries, along with RB receptions and GL carries?
How many RBs will absolutely get all of those things, even if they underperform for long stretches?
Unless a guy simply can't do the job, aren't those the 2 most important issues when it comes to finding stud RBs?
It doesn't take special talent (relatively speaking) to be a top 10 fantasy RB, but it takes a special opportunity. Richardson has that.
Richardson's only issue is health really. There's the issue that he hasn't done it at this level yet, but "being too young" is hardly a knock on an NFL RB.
The supporting cast certainly isn't the problem. Bad teams love to take young RBs and make them fantasy studs.
Being on a great team is probably a worse problem to have.
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Not sure I'd agree with Bradshaw and Eli, but yes.
DoubleG
Footballguy
In redraft, I could see him being paired with Kevin Smith as a solid RB2. Smith will start a few games here for the Lions (the 2 of the suspension...at least). Counting on Smith to stay healthy for longer is probably not a good long term plan anyway. Richardson may take a few weeks to heal up and get some work under his belt - but then should be good to go by week 3 or 4.I would easily take TRich as my RB2 if I could land K. Smith later to cover the first few games of the season.It's tough to take him as an RB1 though - as he may not even start the season.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
yeah, both those guys are borderline.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He had about 2 weeks before the operation, sounds like coaches expect him out there in at least a limited basis after the last preseason game - maybe earlier. Barring a setback he'll be in there week 1, whether it's in a 10-12 touch capacity or a 15-20 touch depends how the next 2 weeks go. Obviously I'm not taking him in round 1 anymore and I only have 1 draft left but I'm hoping to nab him with my 2nd pick. It's a keeper, one of those lose picks for player types, I'm taking Chris Johnson or Forte with my first pick but if Richardson is there with my next pick I'm in with him as my flex.
SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
Please explain how MJD managed to finish as the #3 RB in fantasy last year and well ahead of any RB in NO while playing on the #32 ranked offense in the NFL and NO had the #1 ranked offense in the NFL.Here's a hint, the answer is in my OP.I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!
Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.
1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.
Advantage Richardson.
2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.
Advantage Richardson
3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.
Advantage Richardson
I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.
I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
In PPR MJD finished 4th and Sproles finished 5th. Plus New Orleans has Pierre Thomas and Ingram taking a good portion of the rushing opportunities. Richardson will be sharing carries with Hardesty so he is not a stand alone back like MJD is either. Richardson will most likely be out of the game on most passing downs too, especially the first few weeks, depending on if he can even get into football shape this season, so his opportunities for receptions are going to be limited too.Please explain how MJD managed to finish as the #3 RB in fantasy last year and well ahead of any RB in NO while playing on the #32 ranked offense in the NFL and NO had the #1 ranked offense in the NFL.Here's a hint, the answer is in my OP.I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!
Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.
1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.
Advantage Richardson.
2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.
Advantage Richardson
3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.
Advantage Richardson
I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.
I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
This may be true the first couple of weeks as Richardson gets into football shape, but they didn't spend a top 5 pick on Richardson for him to share carries with a marginal talent like Hardesty. I just can't see this happening beyond the first couple of weeks.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
As someone who watches lots of college football and every Alabama game for the past two years I realize lots of posters are clueless but like to pop off at the mouth and it shows how utterly clueless they are.
Share carries, pretty weird thing to say.
Out on 3rd downs/passing situations? Shows who doesn't know about Trent's strengths. He is a fantastic blocker and a very good receiver.
But this is typical shark pool, almost every player gets reamed by posters.
I'm all in on Trent in redrafts and dynasties, all scoring systems. Top 10 this year with multiple top 5 seasons and a great shot at having seasons at being número UNO.
Share carries, pretty weird thing to say.
Out on 3rd downs/passing situations? Shows who doesn't know about Trent's strengths. He is a fantastic blocker and a very good receiver.
But this is typical shark pool, almost every player gets reamed by posters.
I'm all in on Trent in redrafts and dynasties, all scoring systems. Top 10 this year with multiple top 5 seasons and a great shot at having seasons at being número UNO.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Yes, you are correct, NFL players who are injured and miss the entire pre-season play 100% of the snaps. Noob.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
MS - you either love a player (own them) or hate them right? there's no in between with you it seems.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Only a noob would think any RB gets 100% of snaps. Look for the noob - Hint - look in any mirror.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
So post #165 sharing carries is a foreign concept to you, then post #168 you completely backtrack. Noob. Only a noob would watch lots of college football. Welcome to the big leagues.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Your parents are disappointed. Just sayin...
GreenNGold
Footballguy
You will be just as disappointed as Trent's parents in a few weeks. Just sayin...
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The last few posts have not added anything to the discussion. If you disagree with someone, that's fine; but bring some reasons for the disagreement and leave the name calling out of here.
Thanks.
AB
Thanks.
AB
oukurt
Footballguy
I drafted him as my RB2 in my redraft because I believe he will be the feature back on an offense that I believe is improving. With Weeden and developing WRs, defenses will not be able to stack the box. I also think Richardson is twice the player Ingram is. Did you see a single game he played at Bama? So you got burned by Ingram last year. Do some work for yourself. The Saints offense is not going to feature a single back while Payton is running the show. That is a spread em out and get the ball to many play makers type offense. If healthy Richardson will have a similar rookie season to Peterson's rookie season.
PROTIP to you - Do your own homework, don't be the blind sheep that follows, make an informed decision, and quit blaming others for your fantasy football failures. Way to much crying in the shark pook lately.
PROTIP to you - Do your own homework, don't be the blind sheep that follows, make an informed decision, and quit blaming others for your fantasy football failures. Way to much crying in the shark pook lately.
cheese
Footballguy
Besides being a good commentary on OLine play, this also points out what one stud RB on a team with no other options can compile. This is a good thing for TRich and probably SJax and maybe even MJD again. RB for fantasy is still about piling up touches more than anything else.
gump
Footballguy
One thing I haven't seen mentioned at all is the timing between the initial miniscus injury (LSU early Nov '11) and the first surgery (mid January '12). Trent finished the LSU game and played several big late games, had a few weeks to rest, then the BCSC game....with the injury.
So what does that say about the injury....anything?
So what does that say about the injury....anything?
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Took him at 3.02 in my redraft last night. Paired him with Ray Rice with Greene as my 3rd RB. I can whether the storm until he carries the load.
The question is whether Hardesty is roster worthy in shallow leagues?
The question is whether Hardesty is roster worthy in shallow leagues?
bagger
Footballguy
this is exactly what i did.got t rich at 2.10 and smith at 8.10.i am already starting smith over t rich week 1 since smith is playing the rams, we will see what happens from there but in my view i have a 2 week period to see what richardson does before having to start him as my rb2.i have rice as my rb1 so i can get aggressive with taking richardson.
I don't have Richardson in my top 60 overall (he's 24th on my redraft RB board). Also, I urged caution about Ingram last year, too. The post above pretends that Footballguys.com is monolithic when it comes to rankings, but we're not. There may be a consensus opinion on certain players, but Joe and David have built a board of fantasy commentators/experts that has considerable diversity of opinion. Just saying.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
2 out of 3 dentists recommend Crest too.
DoubleG
Footballguy
Not to mention that FBG was hardly the only source (even if you see it as one source, which, as Wimer points out, it really isn't) to over-rate Ingram.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I was also one of the Ingram naysayers last year, Wimer and I were in the minority. Me thinks some of you aren't the talent evaluators you think you are.Nice job Wimer.sweetness34
Footballguy
Nice job guys. Kudos to you. Major props. You pegged Ingram as overrated last year. <excuse me while I get out my violin...>
In all seriousness, let's try to look at things objectively. Will Richardson be a major bust this year? Be "overrated?" Yes, there is a decent chance of that, likely a better than decent chance. But as has been pointed out many times in this thread already - stop with the Ingram-Richardson comparisons.
Other than each being a rookie RB from Alabama that some/many perceive as being "overrated," their situations could not be more different.
Not trying to be a smart-A. I have zero problem with anyone who's down on Richardson this year. I just think this Ingram=Richardson rationale is ridiculous.
In all seriousness, let's try to look at things objectively. Will Richardson be a major bust this year? Be "overrated?" Yes, there is a decent chance of that, likely a better than decent chance. But as has been pointed out many times in this thread already - stop with the Ingram-Richardson comparisons.
Other than each being a rookie RB from Alabama that some/many perceive as being "overrated," their situations could not be more different.
Not trying to be a smart-A. I have zero problem with anyone who's down on Richardson this year. I just think this Ingram=Richardson rationale is ridiculous.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
you're right, Ingram actually went to one of the best offense's in football and Richardson just went to one of the worst.Throw in the injury stuff.Ingram's profile was better than Richardson's.Ridiculous.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
If you're talking about fantasy prospects for their rookie years then I agree. Richardson will likely struggle in 2012 more than most people seem to think, based on Cleveland's awful offense, coaching, and trying to integrate a ton of new young players.As an NFL prospect, Richardson is on an entire different level than Mark Ingram. It's really not even close.
sweetness34
Footballguy
This is a much better post than saying, "Ingram went to one of the best offenses in football..." Yeah, unless you're a RB. Misleading. The lazy analysis using Ingram to predict a far superior Richardson's rookie outcome is tiresome.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
Has he played at all in the preseason? is he definitely starting week 1?
DoubleG
Footballguy
Lhucks, fishing?? NNOOOOOOO!!!
LHUCKS
Footballguy
That's all I care about, this is a FF messageboard. Not much of a dynasty guy.
barista
Footballguy
I can't really argue against some good rationale for caution here but frankly, picking 12th in a 12 team, I picked him and S.Jackson with my double picks.
I did so because, as I understand, he's an every down back.
That's why I'm rostering him.
-----As for the comparison to Ingram, he was not in the same position as he was sharing time with Thomas, Ivory and Sproles on the team. I think it's a bad comparison. As for NO being a top offensive team- that's mostly passing, yeah?
I did so because, as I understand, he's an every down back.
That's why I'm rostering him.
-----As for the comparison to Ingram, he was not in the same position as he was sharing time with Thomas, Ivory and Sproles on the team. I think it's a bad comparison. As for NO being a top offensive team- that's mostly passing, yeah?
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Banger
Footballguy
Better offense <> better fantasy prospect. LT did it with the Chargers why can't he with the Browns?
Does anyone remember how bad the Vikings were during AP's rookie year? They were pretty bad. And they have been every year since that except for one year with Favre. but Peterson always got his.
Does anyone remember how bad that 2010 browns team was hen Hillis ran roughshod over the nfl? They were pretty bad. At qb I think they started the yet with Derek "the other teams MVP" Anderson? They had a switch to a rookie qb and were a mess all season. Hillis still got his.
Richardson is the best rookie rb to hit the nfl since AP. providing that he gets back to full health from that knee scope, why is it so crazy to think that a rb of his talents can't do what AP or Hillis did with bad offenses?
He is goin in the 3rd rd now with the injury discount. I got him at 3.11 yesterday as my RB2. I think he has as much upside as any other RB2 being drafted in that area and maybe more. What's the problem here?
Does anyone remember how bad that 2010 browns team was hen Hillis ran roughshod over the nfl? They were pretty bad. At qb I think they started the yet with Derek "the other teams MVP" Anderson? They had a switch to a rookie qb and were a mess all season. Hillis still got his.
Richardson is the best rookie rb to hit the nfl since AP. providing that he gets back to full health from that knee scope, why is it so crazy to think that a rb of his talents can't do what AP or Hillis did with bad offenses?
He is goin in the 3rd rd now with the injury discount. I got him at 3.11 yesterday as my RB2. I think he has as much upside as any other RB2 being drafted in that area and maybe more. What's the problem here?
Also, people are willing to draft a jamaal Charles or an Adrian Peterson, 2 rbs coming off ACL injuries, in the SECOND round of drafts! To me that's insane. Why is that ok but trich in the middle to late 3rd rd is crazy?
I don't have a crystal ball do I can't know for sure but I think people are over analyzing trich a little bit and suffering from "paralasis by analysis" syndrome. If he has a great year, everyone talking smack here is gonna kick themselves for talking themselves out of drafting him based on all of these arguments.
I don't have a crystal ball do I can't know for sure but I think people are over analyzing trich a little bit and suffering from "paralasis by analysis" syndrome. If he has a great year, everyone talking smack here is gonna kick themselves for talking themselves out of drafting him based on all of these arguments.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
LT is arguably the best RB of the modern era, and top 5 of alltime on many lists.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Better offense still <> better fantasy prospect.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Drafting TRich as your Rb1or RB2 is suicide. Very few goal line chances in game; no passing game to ta pressure of run game; browns will protect Rich first quarter of year and go Hardesty at least 30%......and finally Pitt;Baltimore and Cincy twice......boy to mention they will always be losing in 4th quarter forcing them to abandon run early....yikes
Dismattle
Footballguy
It might be worth the time too check points scored by RB ex. If you like the idea of your RB facing the Broncos (odds are you would lose ony 4.3'ish points facing Pitt, last Season)
Obviousy players have improved (LB's quicker n stronger) true speed may work in college only.. Now if you dont believe Mike Holmgren has a QB who can perform well, when the box is stacked (ignore my post) Im not so sure theres much to discuss.
Otherwise NFL is/has become a passing game, I would imagine defense's are keyed to prevent. (ie. not setup to defend smash-mouth FB)
No combine day, but this is neat http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1031164/trent-richardson.gif
Obviousy players have improved (LB's quicker n stronger) true speed may work in college only.. Now if you dont believe Mike Holmgren has a QB who can perform well, when the box is stacked (ignore my post) Im not so sure theres much to discuss.
Otherwise NFL is/has become a passing game, I would imagine defense's are keyed to prevent. (ie. not setup to defend smash-mouth FB)
No combine day, but this is neat http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1031164/trent-richardson.gif
