Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I saw that Jackson wants to throw for 6,000 yards this season. Lofty goals for a guy who has only surpassed 3,000 passing yards once.
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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
LawFitz
Footballguy
He should have signed the equivalent of this deal two years ago. Not only did he lose the added pay and security of those two years, but now he has to wait two additional years before becoming a FA again. The latter loss is TBD, but the former should not be denied.
Luv Lamar. But he very clearly lost quite a bit in this.
Chaka
Footballguy
I said something almost identical earlier in the thread and @Just Win Baby pointed out there is a mistake with that line of reasoning:
Tau837
Footballguy
I think there are reasons why Lamar should have signed two years ago, but the bolded isn't one of them.
All of the other recent successful 1st round QBs who signed big contracts (Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Watson) signed contract extensions while still under contract, meaning the extension years added onto the end of their existing contracts. Their teams also exercised their 5th year options first.
Had Jackson signed two years ago, after his third season, the Ravens would have first exercised his 5th year option, then signed him to an extension. If it was a 5 year extension, it would carry him just as far as this contract he ultimately signed.
This is what is going to happen with Herbert and Burrow this offseason.
ETA: @Chaka beat me to it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The biggest thing he lost was the security. Just think if he had some gruesome injury last year. He might have lost 100 million
fatness
Footballguy
I'm not following. This is what he has signed for going forward.
1. Signing bonus: $72.5 million.
2. 2023 base salary: $7.5 million, fully guaranteed.
3. 2024 option bonus: $17.5 million, fully guaranteed.
4. 2024 offseason roster bonus: $750,000, fully guaranteed.
5. 2024 base salary: $14.25 million, fully guaranteed.
6. 2025 option bonus: $22.5 million, fully guaranteed at signing.
7. 2025 offseason roster bonus: $750,000, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in March 2024.
8. 2025 base salary: $20.25 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in March 2024.
9. 2026 offseason roster bonus: $750,000.
10. 2026 base salary: $51.25 million, $29 million of which is guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in March 2025.
11. 2027 offseason roster bonus: $750,000.
12. 2027 base salary: $51.25 million.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think he meant is he played without security last year by not signing an extension. i.e. if he got Theismaned last year he would have gotten $0
But that didn't happen and he is walking with
x a lot.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Exactly. Making a few extra million was not worth the risk of losing 100-200 million.
At some point some of the players will wise up and understand that a "team friendly deal" in a lot of cases means they sign you for a bit less while you get a lot of money even if you suffer a career ending injury.
Not to mention, if he signed two years ago and invested that signing bonus, he'd have a lot more than he just signed for.
You can bet anything that Burrow and Herbert will sign an extension this offseason even though they know they would get more if they wanted two years.
massraider
Footballguy
Lamar Jackson secured $80M in 2023, most ever for a player in a single season, and a record-setting $156M over three years.
The contract also has no-trade and no-tag clauses, making him an unrestricted free agent at 31 years old if he isn't re-signed
,
The contract also has no-trade and no-tag clauses, making him an unrestricted free agent at 31 years old if he isn't re-signed
,
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I think most agree that Lamar made a huge gamble and won.
... deal guarantees $185 million after two years, according to figures reported by Pro Football Talk, won with an average salary that tops the averages for the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts ($51 million) and New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers ($50.271 million). And the three-year payout of $156 million exceeds the $150.8 million for Rodgers.
And Jackson wins, too, in that he perhaps saved close to $8 million in agent fees, if he had paid out the standard 3% to an agent for a $260 million deal.
... deal guarantees $185 million after two years, according to figures reported by Pro Football Talk, won with an average salary that tops the averages for the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts ($51 million) and New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers ($50.271 million). And the three-year payout of $156 million exceeds the $150.8 million for Rodgers.
And Jackson wins, too, in that he perhaps saved close to $8 million in agent fees, if he had paid out the standard 3% to an agent for a $260 million deal.
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Chaka
Footballguy
This just occurred to me but, in theory couldn't both parties agree, as a condition of a new contract, to simply not use the fifth year option? Or even void the final two years? Making it a new contract and not an extension.
Obviously the player would have to concede significant salary as part of that kind of structure. But he would gain a shot at his second contract 1-2 years earlier.
I feel like this has happened in the past.
Chaka
Footballguy
Do agents collect on total potential contract value, or only on the actual realized value by the player.
Considering the last year (or two) of many NFL contracts contain a lot of creative accounting I find it surprising they would collect on the theoretical value.
If Lamar suffers a career ending injury in year 2, he won't see close to $100 mil (or whatever) of the total contract but the agent still collects on that?
Heck, I wanna be an agent.
massraider
Footballguy
2 down, 2 to go.
I've always assumed the next two are going to get more money, but it's because they are better QBs, not because they signed slightly after Hurts and Lamar.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Huh?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's a combo of both - look how the market carried guys like Daniel Jones and Dereck Carr.
Yes I know, no two situations are identical but generally every year the overall QB market increases. That doesn't mean that each QB contract is always larger than the last, especially when they are signed in the same general timeframe.
It isn't simply the order they sign that determines the size of the contract, I don't believe that Lamar would have gotten a larger contract than Burrow if Burrow signed before Lamar.
massraider
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Totally agree with the first point. That's why Carr & Jones didn't get market setting contracts.
I also 1000% agree that Burrow>>>Lamar (maybe 80% agree Herbert>Lamar, I need to see more from Herbert). Do you think Hurts would have received a very slightly larger contract than Burrow if he waited? Lamar is perceived in the league, fairly or not, to be good enough that he probably would have received a slight bump over whatever Burrow gets. Peak Lamar is still in the conversation of best QBs in the league. But it didn't play out that way, perhaps because Lamar didn't want to test that theory, so we'll never know.
massraider
Footballguy
Pretty sure Carr's 2nd contract WAS market setting. Not for long, and it was a bargain soon, just the way Hurts' deal will be.
Tau837
Footballguy
That wouldn't be "not using 5th year option" but rather would be a 4 year extension. 5th year option is a contract year. Terms of that contract year can be reworked, but it can't be eliminated. This is essentially semantics.
As an example, Houston exercised the 5th year option for Watson and then signed him to a 4 year extension. At the time, that placed him under contract with the Texans for a total of 9 years (2017-2025).
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Tau837
Footballguy
Are you saying 20% think Lamar > Herbert? That would surprise me quite a bit.
Chaka
Footballguy
I meant his contract with the Saints. At the time of his previous there was a teeny argument that he could be elite and a very stupid front office in Las Vegas.
I wouldn't blame you of you blocked those years from your memory.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm saying I personally am 80% Herbert: 20% Lamar
Herbert has had a fine start to his career on a very friendly offensive team. Keenan, Williams, Ekeler are far, far superior to any group Lamar has ever played with.
The Chargers would be far worse without Herbert, conversely they are only a .500 club with him so far.
Some are using Lamar's playoff performance as a knock on him. I don't think that is necessarily fair but apples-to-aoples. Herbert's offense managed 3 points in the second half against the Jags in an epic collapse.
It's a team sport so it's difficult to say.
I just need to see more from Herbert.
I might actually be closer to 60:40 if I really stop and think about it.
No, I think Hurts would have gotten less than Burrow if he waited (assuming you mean waited a week or two after Burrow not a year or two). I strongly disagree that Lamar would have gotten a slight bump over Burrow, and him perhaps not wanting to test that theory may be because he saw it the same way. The Bengals and the Chargers are a bit of a wild card with contracts, but my guess is Burrow gets quite a bit more than Lamar, Herbert somewhere in between.
We've been down this road a few times, I agree that peak Lamar is in the conversation of best QBs in the league. The issue is peak Lamar was 4 years ago. If he had a season like that last year I think he would have gotten quite a bit more than he did, maybe even surpassed Watson's guarantees. Obviously we'll never know, and it really doesn't matter at this point. He signed a huge but fair contract and things are looking up for the offense, hopefully they stay healthy and can make some noise in the post season.
massraider
Footballguy
But apples to apples, Carr's 2nd contract made him highest paid player, and he was soon passed by the next guy, and the next guy.
Burrow and Herbert, whoever signs first, will get less. Most likely.
Hurts has higher AAV than Rodgers. Why? Signed his deal later. Kyler Murray has higher AAV than Mahomes. Why? Signed his deal later.
He's getting a new deal after Hurts
massraider
Footballguy
I agree, did you miss the post I quoted?
Chaka
Footballguy
This gets repeated a lot. Lamar's 2020 season was easily on par with anything Hurts did in 2022.
I have pointed out the following, also multiple times in here: I don't think it is a coincidence that Lamar's struggles, such as they were, let's not pretend he was terrible as he was still quite good, coincided with the loss of Orlando Brown to the Chiefs in 2021 and Stanley only playing 6 games that season.
So Lamar's season 3 years ago was on par with what Hurts did in 2022? Okay, they both signed and Lamar got a bit more, not sure what your point is. My point is, Lamar's play (and availability) has clearly declined in recent seasons, and his peak (to date) was very clearly in 2019. I think those things factored into his contract- it isn't just about your peak season, recent performance and availability matters as well so to me it's silly to think he wouldn't have gotten quite a bit more if he was MVP last year, but we can agree to disagree.
Yes, there were other factors for Lamar, just like for every player. They also drafted Bateman and got a healthy, dominant season out of Andrews in 2021 so it's not like it was all bad for him.
The main point of my post is that you two seem to think all that matters is the order they sign. We may never know because Herbert could be next followed by Burrow, but I also think there's a reason they tend to go in that order- the best QBs want to wait for the others to set the market and then they negotiate higher from there. If Burrow signed first, then things very likely could have gotten even uglier with Lamar because they would have had to tell him that he isn't as good.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure. The examples I gave also prove this point as well.
Chaka
Footballguy
No, I don't. There are obviously a lot of moving parts in this thread and I don't expect anyone to keep every other poster and what they said straight, but I never said anything close to that. I even pointed out that Carr and Jones didn't set the market this off season, neither did Garoppolo. Frankly I was shocked by how much Jones landed.
Like it or not Lamar isn't in the conversation with Carr & Jones, he's in the conversation with guys like Hurts, Burrow & Herbert (obviously Mahomes is on another level). History shows those guys virtually (literally?) always sign for the previous contract +$1 (or whatever). It doesn't matter that Burrow>Lamar, which we all agree on.
I don't recall if you've said that directly and I don't care to look, but you've liked multiple posts by massraider saying that, including one just above. Your last sentence points to that as well.
No, history does not show that. No one has come close to matching the guaranteed money that Watson got, for instance. Stafford got less than Rodgers despite signing later. Jimmy G got less than Carr and Jones despite signing after them. Etc.
It absolutely does matter that Burrow>Lamar. Just like it mattered that Carr and Jones>Jimmy G and Rodgers>Stafford. The argument that it doesn't matter if someone is better than someone else is honestly one of the most bizarre things I've heard on here, but again, let's just agree to disagree.
massraider
Footballguy
I am still a believer in this front office, I always thought they were among the top 2/3 teams in the NFL.
But here's the players they ahve drafted SINCE they drafted Lamar:
2023 1 1 22 22 Zay Flowers WR Boston College
2 3 23 86 Trenton Simpson LB Clemson
3 4 22 124 Tavius Robinson DE Mississippi
4 5 22 157 Kyu Blu Kelly DB Stanford
5 6 22 199 Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu T Oregon
6 7 12 229 Andrew Vorhees G USC
2022 1 1 14 14 Kyle Hamilton DB Notre Dame
2 1 25 25 Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa
3 2 13 45 David Ojabo LB Michigan
4 3 12 76 Travis Jones DT Connecticut
5 4 5 110 Daniel Faalele T Minnesota
6 4 14 119 Jalyn Armour-Davis DB Alabama
7 4 23 128 Charlie Kolar TE Iowa State
8 4 25 130 Jordan Stout P Penn State
9 4 34 139 Isaiah Likely TE Coastal Carolina
10 4 36 141 Damarion Williams DB Houston
11 6 17 196 Tyler Badie RB Missouri
2021 1 1 27 27 Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota
2 1 31 31 Jayson Oweh LB Penn State
3 3 30 94 Ben Cleveland G Georgia
4 3 40 104 Brandon Stephens DB Southern Methodist
5 4 26 131 Tylan Wallace WR Oklahoma State
6 5 16 160 Shaun Wade DB Ohio State
7 5 27 171 Daelin Hayes DE Notre Dame
8 5 40 184 Ben Mason RB Michigan
2020 1 1 28 28 Patrick Queen LB Louisiana State
2 2 23 55 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State
3 3 7 71 Justin Madubuike DT Texas A&M
4 3 28 92 Devin Duvernay WR Texas
5 3 34 98 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
6 3 42 106 Tyre Phillips G Mississippi State
7 4 37 143 Ben Bredeson G Michigan
8 5 24 170 Broderick Washington DT Texas Tech
9 6 22 201 James Proche WR Southern Methodist
10 7 5 219 Geno Stone DB Iowa
2019 1 1 25 25 Marquise Brown WR Oklahoma
2 3 21 85 Jaylon Ferguson DE Louisiana Tech
3 3 29 93 Miles Boykin WR Notre Dame
4 4 11 113 Justice Hill RB Oklahoma State
5 4 21 123 Ben Powers G Oklahoma
6 4 25 127 Iman Marshall DB USC
7 5 22 160 Daylon Mack DT Texas A&M
8 6 24 197 Trace McSorley QB Penn State
massraider
Footballguy
Sorry for wall of text, but that's not a lot of help for anyone on the team, including Lamar.
Especially for a team that gets roundly praised every draft. Add in that it seems like the strength staff was pushing some of these guys into injuries, and the BAL brain trust has had a quietly bad couple years.
Especially for a team that gets roundly praised every draft. Add in that it seems like the strength staff was pushing some of these guys into injuries, and the BAL brain trust has had a quietly bad couple years.
massraider
Footballguy
Lamar Jackson will continue to represent himself -- and at this point he should
It took a while, but Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson finally got his new contract.
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
This is a treat.
Here, Florio and Pro Football Talk explain that yeah, it was a great contract, but he should have signed this last year, and yeah, there's a no trade and no franchise tag clause and that's great but STILL!!!
He uses phrases here like "Could have/should have" and "surely should have" and "It's impossible to know, BUT"
What a perfect thread for this article.
Chaka
Footballguy
Didn't they get rid of their strength coach after the player survey came out?
Maybe that will help with some of the injuries.
If anyone can solve the Ronnie Stanley injury issue that should have a major impact, otherwise I think it may have been a mistake drafting Flowers, another tiny target, over Anton Harrison.
Chaka
Footballguy
Sure, but you can't deny his reasoning. It's all stuff we have been saying in here.Lamar Jackson will continue to represent himself -- and at this point he should
It took a while, but Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson finally got his new contract.
This is a treat.
Here, Florio and Pro Football Talk explain that yeah, it was a great contract, but he should have signed this last year, and yeah, there's a no trade and no franchise tag clause and that's great but STILL!!!
He uses phrases here like "Could have/should have" and "surely should have" and "It's impossible to know, BUT"
What a perfect thread for this article.
For @Just Win Baby ; Florio says
Sorry to keep going back to this but, I'm obviously still having trouble with this. What does Florio mean here? I thought that it was effectively the same number of years regardless if the contract was signed after year three or year five because of the team option on the fifth season?
Won't Lamar and Allen be hitting their next contract at the same age season? They both just finished their fifth season.
ETA: FWIW spotrac has both Lamar & Allen as UFAs in
So is Florio simply mistaken or trying to make another point?
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined 
) and most of us are doing well. We’re almost talking Monopoly money here. Think it’s time to move on from that talk - but that’s just me.
) and most of us are doing well. We’re almost talking Monopoly money here. Think it’s time to move on from that talk - but that’s just me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Bottom line is all he has done for the last two years is risk risk risk risk risk, with very little reward.Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined
He's no better off right now than if he had signed two years ago and got a boatload of money up front back then.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Past risk is the worst.Bottom line is all he has done for the last two years is risk risk risk risk risk, with very little reward.Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined
He's no better off right now than if he had signed two years ago and got a boatload of money up front back then.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Seems quite short sightedPast risk is the worst.Bottom line is all he has done for the last two years is risk risk risk risk risk, with very little reward.Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined
He's no better off right now than if he had signed two years ago and got a boatload of money up front back then.
Chaka
Footballguy
Isn't he at least a little better off? According to spotrac Lamar is going to be an UFA in after 2027, and the Ravens can't tag him or trade him.Bottom line is all he has done for the last two years is risk risk risk risk risk, with very little reward.Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined
He's no better off right now than if he had signed two years ago and got a boatload of money up front back then.
Josh Allen, who signed his extension after his 3rd season, when many of thought Lamar should, will be a FA after the 2028 season and the Bills can still use the tag on him.
Career Earnings:
Allen thru 2022 – $ 85.1 M
Jackson thru 2022 – $ 32.7 M
Allen thru 2025 - $ 183 M
Jackson thru 2025 - $ 183 M
Allen thru 2026* - $ 221 M
Jackson thru 2026* - $ 233 M
Allen thru 2027 - $ 261 M
Jackson thru 2027 - $ 285
Allen thru 2028 - $ 302 M
Jackson thru 2028 - UFA
2026 is where the math will probably get fuzzy with restructures. But Lamar is effectively guaranteed $156 M over the next three years with a practical guarantee of $185 over the next four.
Not only does that outstrip Allen (and Murray) but he's going to be a FA a year earlier.
I have been beating the drum for Lamar to get an agent as much as anyone in here but, Lamar did really well for himself.
massraider
Footballguy
Exactly. Buts and ifs.
massraider
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I was speaking about the past. if you asked anyone if the Ravens have been doing the right thing over the past few years, the answer is yes.
The hindsight is lot less impressive. In the moment, people were praising everything the Ravens did. The reality is they kind of had a bad run of decisions, including keeping that strength coach, for years. wasn't like this was a two year, oh man this guy is bad. He was there for a while.
Boston
Footballguy
Bottom line is any mistakes Lamar made in the past as to his contract have for the most part been made moot by this record setting contract. I’ll admit, I’m not doing the math and maybe he could have made X million dollars more had he done something different - the bottom line is when we look at this contact Lamar is doing and will continue to do well financially. None of us will approach this money in our lifetime (maybe combined
Agreed...how he handled this was unconventional and probably risky but he stuck to his guns and ended up with a record setting deal...it is a results-based business and while I don't think you will see a lot more Mom's representing their sons this strategy worked out for him and that is the reality of this situation.
Chaka
Footballguy
Again, I am not certain this is true. Deshaun's contract is better because he collects his $230 mil regardless of anything that happens. He plays like poo? "#### you, pay me!". He gets Theismaned? "#### you, pay me!". Goes to prison? "#### you, pay me!"
I doubt any player lands that kind of deal again (I personally would do that for Mahomes and probably Burrow).
But, in relative terms, if they stay healthy (yes, I know it's a risk) Watson and Lamar will both have banked ~$280 mil and be RFAs by the same contract year (Watson after 2026, Lamar after 2027).
Not sure if Watson has no tag or no trade provisions, Lamar does, and that is a great potential advantage. He's free and clear after 2027. Lamar will also be a little more than a year younger when he becomes a UDFA giving him a slight edge on his fourth contract.
I doubt either Lamar or Watson are 20 year career guys, I give Watson the edge in that regard, but Lamar did very well here.
He outstripped Allen and Murray and came very close to Watson, particularly on the three year payout. I'm not a rocket surgeon but I think, <checks abacus>$156 M/3 = $52 M/year over the next three years. Watson over the first three was $46 M/year.
I don't follow all the nuance of contract valuations but seeing what I see do we really think he didn't gain anything by taking his route?
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