Thanks @thecatch for asking for clarification because that makes all the difference in the world.
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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Yeah, for an injury that at least has the potential to clear up with a few months rest, I think it's material. CMC is obviously injury prone no matter how you slice it but I'm cautiously optimistic about him this year.
efactor
Footballguy
"I heard it on the RADIO" (to the tune of Queen's "Radio Ga Ga")
KNBR is so bad, I stopped listening about 5-6 years ago and I was pretty avid before that. Straight downhill after Radnich retired.
Wouldn't put a lot of stock in anything repeated there. Obvious risk with drafting McCaffrey and I wouldn't take him before Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Bijan or Gibbs, but would definitely consider after that and would be tough between him and Barkley in redraft.
Agree with the bolded but still hard to ignore recent history. Hopefully one of my fellow Niner fans takes him early in our local redraft so I don't have to make the decision. I have grabbed him in 2 FFPC startups in the late 4th and mid 5th rounds so good with his value there. Excited and apprehensive at the same time.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, sorry all - it was not my intention to represent that as new info. It’s just something where it comes to mind when I think about CMC and the injury.
I should have added the context that it was a quote from last year - that’s my bad.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree completely, but at 5:45 AM driving to my market it’s either “best of KNBR” or that stupid betting show where 2 guys yell at each other about how their system never misses. One “calls in” for a 45 min discussion like a schtick. Makes my ears bleed. Anyway.
It was a replay of a phone interview with CMC. It was CMC who said it was a tricky injury. This was when they were still optimistic he’d be back in week 5.
Same. And if I’m sitting at 7 and that’s the order with Barkley going 6, I might just take Nabers or Jeanty.
Of course that’s how you’ll know CMC is
guaranteed to stay healthy & be the top player in FF. That, too, is science.You’re welcome.
This is where I’m at. I do not want to have to decide.
2 startups this offseason.
1st: 5.11
2nd: 5.08
Both SF.
So you’re not alone. Regardless of injury risk this year, I just don’t see him as a great long-term asset. Like, even if he has a 2024 Barkley season, will you be able to get full value in a trade? I’m skeptical.
Hopefully he gives you 2-3 seasons of production. Best of luck.
efactor
Footballguy
That is pretty much my maximum expectation. If the Achilles issue doesn't flare up, I think it's realistic.
the spanker
Footballguy
My thinking is paralyzed with this guy and I HATE it. Every running back comes with a fair amount of injury risk. Barkley was an injury risk before last season and none of the injuries CMC have sustained are the same ones that's sidelined him in games.
I want to just avoid him BUT the temptation keeps creeping back into my thought process because of his potential UPSIDE. Even at 29, he offers that league breaking baller equivalency no one can match in ceiling that's able to match those top 5-6 picks in the late first round.
Another downside is UGH. My league is unique and we start our playoffs in week 14 and that's his bye week. I know, another reason to avoid him. Man it's just hard passing on him and letting someone get him in one of those 10-12 picks who can get another very good player around the turn.
Recency bias works both ways. Those who drafted him last year who say never again and others who capitalize with the player discount albeit with risk attached, but again, league award winning potential drafters would have never had a shot of getting late first round if not for recency bias.
I want to just avoid him BUT the temptation keeps creeping back into my thought process because of his potential UPSIDE. Even at 29, he offers that league breaking baller equivalency no one can match in ceiling that's able to match those top 5-6 picks in the late first round.
Another downside is UGH. My league is unique and we start our playoffs in week 14 and that's his bye week. I know, another reason to avoid him. Man it's just hard passing on him and letting someone get him in one of those 10-12 picks who can get another very good player around the turn.
Recency bias works both ways. Those who drafted him last year who say never again and others who capitalize with the player discount albeit with risk attached, but again, league award winning potential drafters would have never had a shot of getting late first round if not for recency bias.
Silverstreak
Footballguy
12 team, PPR, 2 player keeper (where they represent the pick/round where you drafted them)...I traded for this year's 1.1.... I expect CMC to be there and I don't believe I can NOT take him if indeed he is there...I guess the other option(s) would be Jeanty or Nico Collins, but CMC will pair very well w/Achane, who is 1 of my 2 keepers...so essentially a 3rd round selection, I believe it to be almost automatic assuming he (CMC) remains healthy up to our drafting time...
Man that's a very bold take!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I actually drafted him last year after saying “never again” after he burned me once before.
But he was also so so good for me once before that.
So now I’ve rostered him 3x and he’s killed my season 2x. So it’s not quite recency bias for me, it’s just not a great track record.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Players like CMC I try not to roster more than once, but I love rhe one share.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Why didn't you draft him in '18, '19, '22, or '23?
I reviewed CMC's PPG in '23 to remember how good he is. He averaged 33% more PPG than RB3. CMC wins leagues when healthy. All RBs carry injury risk. CMC is worth the gamble.
OrganizedChaos
Footballguy
I have been on the CMC train both in the great years and the bad ones. He is so good when healthy he at least merits consideration every year. Let's say he is healthy this year. Are people concerned that to keep him healthy the 49ers may play Guerendo more than expected to keep CMC fresh and lessen chances for injury? I mean if he stays healthy and gets close to what he is in the past he is a no brainer but what if its a 60-40 or 65-35 split?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Draft position?
It’s not always a choice. Sometimes other teams pick players too.
respectfully, A+B=C doesn’t really add up when all RB aren’t
• the same age
• the same mileage
• the same injury
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You don’t see all those hurt receivers + no Deebo and worry about defenses throwing extra bodies at him?
As a Niners fan I’m pretty concerned about that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IMO Shanny won’t do anything like those proposed splits.
Shanny will run CMC until CMC can’t run. If he’s healthy & starting he’s going to work a lot. I pray he stays vertical because not a whole lot else has gone right for the 49er this offseason.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
#TooSoon
dipandglide
Footballguy
I'm still in dynasty mode. I'll switch over to redraft mode soonDraft position?
It’s not always a choice. Sometimes other teams pick players too.
respectfully, A+B=C doesn’t really add up when all RB aren’t
• the same age
• the same mileage
• the same injury
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve never owned a dynasty share. Looks like a roller coaster. But those highs, man.I'm still in dynasty mode. I'll switch over to redraft mode soon
i just took Gibbs 2.02 in a start-up. I’m hoping his career trajectory is similar.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He went 1.5 in my money PPR redraft tonight. Lamb and Jefferson were still on the board.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I can’t take him over Lamb.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
With all the speculation around CMC right now, I can't believe that we really don't have any more info than we did two months ago. The Niners are doing a masterful job of keeping their collective mouths shut. It's pretty impressive actually.
On the other hand, no RBs offer CMC's ceiling. Also, CMC's age feels like a nothing burger to me. He's younger than Henry, Kamara, Conner, or Jones, and not that much older than Barkley.
Is mileage a concern? He basically had a year off from usage wear and tear, and he takes far less of a beating than most RBs given how much of his work is in the pass game. He has 200 fewer carries than Barkley, and 250 fewer than Jacobs (who has quietly been worked extremely hard) and only a little over 100 more than Jonathan Taylor. I can agree that nobody else has Achilles tendonitis that I know of. But we also don't really know how much (if any) of a problem that is going to be.
What if he's just fine, and there isn't anything to report on?
I've moved him up to 1.5 in PPR/TEP, but behind Lamb.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sure but that’s like me saying “I like waffles” and you saying “but what about pancakes?”
I’m just talkin waffles, man. Your pancake argument is valid, and I have in fact agreed with it prior to your making it.
Due to bilateral Achilles tendinitis, which could flare up at any time.
None of whom were hurt last year.
Enough that it makes these comparisons to other RBs who don’t have it extremely challenging, almost to the point of irrelevance, which I tried to say succinctly with the “associative property” analogy.
Right now what we know is
• CMC appears healthy
• CMC is a league-winner when healthy
but
• CMC could aggravate one of those Achilles getting out of the shower today, or on touch #200 this year - there’s no rhyme nor reason for how it flares up, but from everything I’ve read/heard about it (and in the Bay Area it’s been a hot topic for a while, as you can imagine) more use = better chance of that happening.
I won’t fully trust CMC for a few games of a full workload. And by then all my leagues will have been drafted and underway.
To those who are taking the gamble, I wish you the best of luck. He’s the best player on my favorite team. And while I don’t have a CMC share, I do have a Purdy share, and their success is intertwined to some degree.
But I, personally, am too fresh off getting burned, so I will pass. May you all get the pancakes you’re paying for. When right, they’re a delicious and filling breakfast.
When wrong they leave a sick lump in your stomach and a feeling of “what have I done?!” I ordered the wrong pancakes last year. It is what it is.
rockaction
Footballguy
I know he might be a league winner but this guy has nuked two seasons (FFA leagues, but still) and it just doesn’t make sense to risk it. I had Ja’Marr Chase last year and got trucked in my final which is proof that one player is almost never guaranteeing you a win, but a disastrous first-round pick can kill your year by himself. I can’t math it, but you can live it.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I have the 8th pick in my main league and I'm get a feeling I'm going to have a very tough decision there. I do think CMC is probably toast. 90% of me believes this. Buuuuuut that 10% is screaming at me that you just may be correct and I can take a big step in winning my league by taking him.
I still got 6 days to anguish over it.
Scoresman
Footballguy
All the reports of CMC in camp aren't really making me budge, mainly because of the following.
- Achilles Tendinitis has a pretty good recurrence chance
- The 49ers are notorious for not being up front on injuries, and this will cause misery if he does incur another injury.
- The 49ers in general have a high rate of injuries which makes me think something is up in this regard with the coaching/training staff increasing the likelihood of recurrence.
- Achilles Tendinitis has a pretty good recurrence chance
- The 49ers are notorious for not being up front on injuries, and this will cause misery if he does incur another injury.
- The 49ers in general have a high rate of injuries which makes me think something is up in this regard with the coaching/training staff increasing the likelihood of recurrence.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the other part of this equation I was thinking but failed to articulate in my already too-long post.
While some are ordering those delicious pancakes at 1.01 or 1.02, or 1.03, or 1.04, or 1.05, I could be ordering some eggs Benedict (Chase) or corned beef hash (Lamb), maybe even chicken fried steak & eggs (Bijan), or perhaps the country skillet (Gibbs). Maybe even bottomless mimosas with 2 eggs any style (JJ)
The opportunity cost of a 1st round pick busting isn’t limited to losing the potential points from that player— it’s the points you could have had from those other players.
I remember winning my now defunct home redraft 1 QB D/ST league with Priest Holmes and his preposterous TD production (27!). The next year I drew the 1.01.
My gut screamed at me to take LT2. Priest had the neck concerns, and Larry Johnson was looming in the wings. But those 27 TDs on a still outstanding offense. I couldn’t help myself. Because like CMC, no player in FF had his upside. And worth noting, all preseason reports on the neck were that he was great. 100%. Totally recovered.
I ordered the pancakes. Week 8, scoring what was the FF game-winning TD for me, priest hurt his neck, and that was it for my season.
If only I’d ordered the waffles.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Even better: what if you have to choose between CMC & Henry there?
rockaction
Footballguy
I think it’s the coaching and have said it for years because they like to get guys up to full speed very rapidly and those kinds of collisions are just worse for the players. I could be wrong but it’s like a car wreck—faster you go worse it is.
OnTheReg
Footballguy
I think this is the exact scenario I will be facing and I have gone back and forth so many times. Draft is tomorrow night. Jeanty is right there as well. I am hoping CMC goes before me so I don't even have to anguish over it. What would you do?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I drafted 12 in the FBG home league. I feared CMC & Henry both making it to me because I’d probably have taken them both at 1.12/2.01
Fortunately @greenmountaingoat fell on his sword for CMC at 1.02, and @rustycolts committed seppuku with Henry at the 1.08
But to answer your question, I’d click Henry through gritted teeth because despite his age, he’s been healthy and he’s in a monster roll in a good offense. IMO a better offense than the 49ers. Which is sort of another ding on CMC.
Jeanty offers a safer floor, but to me Henry’s the pick if it comes down to a choice of those 3.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t blame you. Lower ceiling, safer floor.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
They'll both be there.
I think the thing with CMC, is his ceiling is SO HIGH. Like, I think people are like, "why would I take a guy with CMC's injury history over a different 1st rounder with less injury?" and to me, that's not an accurate representation of what CMC can do. He's light years ahead of anyone else when healthy. The season Barkley just had, CMC has been better than that every single season since 2018, that he's stayed healthy in. Basically 50% of the time CMC is better than what 2024 Barkley was. He's either gotten hurt or been HOF-level great.
I can understand not taking CMC at #1, I would take him, but I know I'm much less risk averse than most. I'm having trouble understanding not taking CMC anywhere in round 1. The player you take instead could be costing you 8+ points per week. If CMC stays healthy, the dropoff from him to the mid 1st round guys, is likely larger than the dropoff from mid-1st to mid-4th.
CMC's splits with/without Deebo are huge. The 49ers have the NFL's easiest schedule, and there is zero evidence to suggest he's lost a step. You are 100% betting on him getting injured and missing a lot of time if you pass on him in round 1. That's the only reason, its nothing on the field, its nothing about his game/role, and its nothing about his situation, its 100% about projecting health, and to me, that feels like the hardest reason to predict.
I can understand not taking CMC at #1, I would take him, but I know I'm much less risk averse than most. I'm having trouble understanding not taking CMC anywhere in round 1. The player you take instead could be costing you 8+ points per week. If CMC stays healthy, the dropoff from him to the mid 1st round guys, is likely larger than the dropoff from mid-1st to mid-4th.
CMC's splits with/without Deebo are huge. The 49ers have the NFL's easiest schedule, and there is zero evidence to suggest he's lost a step. You are 100% betting on him getting injured and missing a lot of time if you pass on him in round 1. That's the only reason, its nothing on the field, its nothing about his game/role, and its nothing about his situation, its 100% about projecting health, and to me, that feels like the hardest reason to predict.
People keep saying this, and it may be true, I'm not a doctor. But I've also read that it's something often goes away with sufficient rest and I haven't seen any reports of him battling this particular malady since he came back on the field last season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It can and does in normal everyday people. But from what I’ve read, in athletes there is a greater chance of recurrence due to
• history of overuse
• the stress put on the Achilles in the course of their role.
• age
And again, from what I’ve read, RB are the highest risk of recurrence. I know many have cited Kittle in here, but Kittle isn’t a RB.
That all said, I’ve also read that it is absolutely possible that CMC is 100% and plays the wholes season. It’s a wide, wide spectrum of potential outcomes.
rockaction
Footballguy
I actually disagree because I’m not Moneyball or hardcore analytics and I think there are some (few) guys that are injury prone. CMC has averaged nine games a year this decade. He misses almost half a year on average. And really, he’s missed three out of six years.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I plugged him in for a 55% rush share and 77 targets which seemed modest and he was over a point per game better than Chase who I had as the #2 overall player.
My quick opinion on the medical stuff is that it seems a few feet over my head. Ray Lewis beat my beloved Patriots with torn triceps and deer antler spray. What do I know?
My quick opinion on the medical stuff is that it seems a few feet over my head. Ray Lewis beat my beloved Patriots with torn triceps and deer antler spray. What do I know?
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Besides, I don't think there's a badge for coming in 2nd place.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Ricky Bobby said it best..... If you ain't first, you're last!
I have the second pick in a 12 team .5ppr/.5pp first down. I (recently) fully convinced myself to go McCaffrey at 2. In chasing the high of the chip I won with him two seasons ago. And I see the 49ers have a higher projected point total and easier schedule than the eagles. So i give the tiebreaker to him over Barkley.
I just feel like if I have the chance to get the overall RB1 with him, I want to take it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2nd pays in most of my leagues.
