Shows how subjective calculators are, I plugged it into two others, one has that combo worth in between the 8 & 9 pick. The other has it worth more than the 1.02! Equivalent names it has that combo worth more than: Metcalf, Josh Allen, Kelce, Devonta Smith… lol
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Shows how subjective calculators are, I plugged it into two others, one has that combo worth in between the 8 & 9 pick. The other has it worth more than the 1.02! Equivalent names it has that combo worth more than: Metcalf, Josh Allen, Kelce, Devonta Smith… lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hall is allegedly worth 2x 1sts.
I was offered him for that a month after the injury. 😬
I agree - apparently there’s only minimal injury discount on either.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe this is my bias but I see Hall as worth it. He is a year younger, was a better prospect, looked better in NFL action and I believe had a clean ACL tear. Plus the Jets already have Michael Carter so I don't see them investing into RB again. With Williams, there isn't anyone to pick up the slack if he is slow to return. This opens a window where the guy Denver brings in presents significant competition. There is no history of Williams being a workhorse.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I can get with this take. I feel like JaWill owners are willing his value into existence. They waited so long for Gordon to be out of the way, and when the split finally tilted in JaWill’s favor, he looked fantastic - then got hurt.
So that anticipation ~> reward sets them up for a refusal to take much less than peak value.
I wouldn’t pay 2x 1sts for Hall in that specific league simply because it doesn’t fit my total rebuild to consolidate high picks in a RB coming off injury, but yeah - he’s probably worth it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah for sure - I’m using Dynasty Dominator for this one. It’s generally pretty good, allows for any league/roster size, TE-P, .25, .5, & full PPR.
Shows how subjective calculators are, I plugged it into two others, one has that combo worth in between the 8 & 9 pick. The other has it worth more than the 1.02! Equivalent names it has that combo worth more than: Metcalf, Josh Allen, Kelce, Devonta Smith… lol
It also accounts for clearing roster spots, which may explain a little of the value discrepancy between 2 picks and 1.
By no means do I believe calcs are the end-all/be-all, but they can be useful. In this case it confirmed to a tee what folks in here suggested as valuation. Interestingly it matched the trade chart as well.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah totally with you. 2 firsts for Hall only makes sense for certain builds and if you are the type of person willing to invest that heavily into RBs in the first place. There may also be some willing it into existence with Hall from me. He was my guy, 1.01 and the centerpiece to this nice rebuild I am working on. So when he instantly looked like a top 5 NFL RB, it was such a high.
massraider
Footballguy
Excellent post.
Dov Kleinman: Do we really need to contribute to this guy with no contacts making himself into something?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not sure reposting something here is moving the needle. He’s already got over 100k followers on Twitter including many of the FBG staff. He may not have connections but if he’s tweeting something, people are talking about it. Including your leaguemates.
massraider
Footballguy
If it's repackaged news that reads like new bad news, which this did, then my first question stands.
Not the end of the world, and if a guy is going to position himself as a news guy, cool. But he's just regurgitating until I see him come with something new.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I don’t think he’s super insightful and is just doing what Rotoworld and other places do which is aggregate stories. Like I said, I think the bigger value is that it’s something being discussed in fantasy circles. I listen to a few podcasts during the season that I don’t think much of their analysis but I know are popular enough that people in my leagues are probably listening. It’s good to know what information is going around, even if it’s not high quality.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Wow, that prognosis changed quickly. Folks who bought low are loving this news.
Boston
Footballguy
Can we get a third opinion that breaks the tie?
finfansteve
Footballguy
I’m not sure I’m in total belief of this news
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seriously! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a turnaround like that in such a short time
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I share your skepticism
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He probably won’t be normal until 2024 at the earliest and “normal“ isn’t guaranteed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JK Dobbins hosed me in three high stakes leagues last year. It was my fault for believing the sunshine and butterflies being written about his injury recovery.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also, the possibility of complications as with JK Dobbins, who needed a follow up “clean up“ procedure.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah and I was fortunate enough to have him only my DND list. If all the news on a player is good, I can get behind him but when there is mixed news, I am going to always assume the worst at this point.
Yeah, far too early to be optimistic and we’ll have to see what reports are come late August before the season starts. Still, it checks the first of many boxes on a road to recovery for JW. It’s certainly a more substantial update than the “reports” from a few days ago.
That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I want to make sure I have this straight...
-Recent reports had Williams being back to full strength more likely in 2024?
-A few days later as teams are preparing for free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft, the General Manager decides to send out a report saying his injured RB will be ready to go Wk1?
What was the advantage there for the GM to make this proclamation all the way back in late February?
Just to help the psyche of Javonte Williams on what is believed to be a very tough road back?
Or is to make Denver appear not as RB starved or needy prior to signing a free agent to help shoulder the load or a Plan B thru the Draft which is loaded at running back?
-Recent reports had Williams being back to full strength more likely in 2024?
-A few days later as teams are preparing for free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft, the General Manager decides to send out a report saying his injured RB will be ready to go Wk1?
What was the advantage there for the GM to make this proclamation all the way back in late February?
Just to help the psyche of Javonte Williams on what is believed to be a very tough road back?
Or is to make Denver appear not as RB starved or needy prior to signing a free agent to help shoulder the load or a Plan B thru the Draft which is loaded at running back?
potentially although they should have no problem finding rb supply this offseason
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or
Or they’re taking Gibbs to make him AK 2. One of the 2.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It wasn’t a recent report - it was rehashing an old report from when the injury first happened. There was nothing new in that report. I’m not saying I believe this new “report” either. I’m just clarifying.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So the GM would be tricking free agents into taking less money because Denver doesn’t really need help?
He could say anything from either spectrum of the recovery time line now. Free agents chase the money - that’s all that will matter.
Be tough with no 1st or 2nd round pick for Gibbs but not out of the realm of possibilities. I’d be more realistically concerned about their extra 3rd round pick they have or finding a Pierce type gem in the 4th or later (although easier said than done.)
Denver is cash strapped as well so spending on a “big name” FA seems unlikely too but not something I’d be willing to bet against since they are going to need someone to carry the rock early in the season and they hope to be competitive with Payton coming in.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Good points. I suggested DEN might be a good landing spot for Mattison.
23 Most Interesting Things I Heard At Combine | Matthew Berry's NFL Combine Buzz
Matthew Berry reveals the 23 most interesting things he heard at the NFL combine, including how Lamar Jackson could end up in Washington.
www.nbcsportsedge.com
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/JoshNorris
Josh Norris
@JoshNorris
Javonte Williams suffered a MULTI LIGAMENT injury in Week 4 ACL + LCL + damage to the joint
Not an isolated ACL tear
notable
--------------------
Underdog NFL
@Underdog__NFL
Transaction alert: Samaje Perine to sign a 2-year deal with the Broncos.
Josh Norris
@JoshNorris
Javonte Williams suffered a MULTI LIGAMENT injury in Week 4 ACL + LCL + damage to the joint
Not an isolated ACL tear
notable
--------------------
Underdog NFL
@Underdog__NFL
Transaction alert: Samaje Perine to sign a 2-year deal with the Broncos.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Did this happen again?
He's already back tracking:
Nick Kosmider
@NickKosmider
·
2h
Broncos GM George Paton on whether RB Javonte Williams will be ready for the start of the season: “We won’t know that for a while.” Adds he is making “great strides” in recovery from his knee injury.
Chris Tomasson
@christomasson
·
1h
#Broncos GM George Paton says it’s too early to know when RB Javonte Williams might be back from his knee injury. “Not sure. He has a long way to go. He’s made strides. But I think we might not know that for awhile.”
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I inherited him on my first ever dynasty squad orphan adoption project. Missed the opportunity to sell him a year ago. Put him otb a week ago to no avail. I believe in the talent but expect a Dobbins 22 like 23. Maybe a few useful weeks in the second half. I think of him as an undervalued asset for 24. Yaay
As you should, and there's nothing wrong with that especially for a dynasty orphan team. He'll only be 24 in the '24 season.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He wasn't lighting the NFL on fire before he got hurt
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Sean Payton will be his 4th Head Coach in less than 24 months since he was drafted, let's cut the kid some slack.
I don't know that any of that's true but it seems like the stuff people tend to chirp when they want to defend a guy they liked pre injury
I liked Javonte a lot coming out of college but yeah he wasn't exactly making Mel Gordon disappear and we chalked it up to the genius offense of Vic Fangio and then Hackett
He did look good at breaking the initial tackle.
I might be talking out of my *** however I thought posters were commenting how it took more than one guy to bring him down.
But now he's had some terrible injuries and you don't have a lot to be hopeful for in 2023. I would like to know who Denver is planning as their lead back.
Yeah that 11 reception game week 1 sure was terrible for fantasy wasn’t it?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
You’re really flexing over 11 catches for 60 odd yards?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hey if you like him, you like him. He’s played 20 games and has 2 games with over 75 yards rushing. All I’m saying is I’d be as worried about him being nothing more than a committee type back as the injury he suffered.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Yeah. 4 year rookie contract.
Year 1- flash tons of potential. No bellcow usage but hope springs from his obvious talent level.
Year 2- irritating lack of bellcow usage by team while still looking the part of being a tackle breaking machine then destroys his knee.
Year 3- Destroyed knee will take most of the year to come back in a more complete way- HOPEFULLY. Perhaps a few games of RB2 usage toward the end of the year.
Year 4.- If all goes according to plan, he's fully healthy and then hoping the team gives him the usage we can actually plug in to a lineup for more than a RB2.
So with a little luck he's in a position to get tagged or earn a decent second contract. Still an OK long term investment.
The talent is/was there, the health is not and the usage is still a projection.
At this time last year he was a top 5 dynasty RB. So were Najee and Swift.
Year 1- flash tons of potential. No bellcow usage but hope springs from his obvious talent level.
Year 2- irritating lack of bellcow usage by team while still looking the part of being a tackle breaking machine then destroys his knee.
Year 3- Destroyed knee will take most of the year to come back in a more complete way- HOPEFULLY. Perhaps a few games of RB2 usage toward the end of the year.
Year 4.- If all goes according to plan, he's fully healthy and then hoping the team gives him the usage we can actually plug in to a lineup for more than a RB2.
So with a little luck he's in a position to get tagged or earn a decent second contract. Still an OK long term investment.
The talent is/was there, the health is not and the usage is still a projection.
At this time last year he was a top 5 dynasty RB. So were Najee and Swift.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Year 4 --> Part of a RBBC joined by the 2023 3rd round Rookie RB they pick up as insurance for Jav not fully recovering?
Also has Payton ever had a real "Bell cow RB1" ?? Kamara/Ingram always RBBC touches ..
zamboni
Footballguy
This year will be obviously huge for Javonte, especially with a new coaching regime.
The RB position is very fickle and if he doesn't blossom by the end of the season to what he was, he probably gets replaced next year or mired in a committee. He has draft capital behind him, but a 2nd rounder isn't exactly a reason for the team to not move on.
The RB position is very fickle and if he doesn't blossom by the end of the season to what he was, he probably gets replaced next year or mired in a committee. He has draft capital behind him, but a 2nd rounder isn't exactly a reason for the team to not move on.
Do you not get points for catches? Anyway, he had great efficiency numbers splitting time his rookie year, was 2nd in the league in broken tackles after only JT (who had 100 more carries) and in the top 10 in Yards after contact. Poised for big things and highly spoken of by peers and opposing coaches in the offseason. 2022 he played 3.5 games on the worst offense in football and was still putting up similar efficiency stats. Things were looking up as Gordon got relegated to the bench after his fumbles but unfortunately that same week JW blew out his knee. Now we do indeed have to worry about competition and him being stuck in a committee going forward, doesn’t help that Payton has a history of splitting his RB work as well.
Rockchild
Footballguy
Always a difficult situation to try and get proper value for an injured player especially RB. I would buy at a 2nd round pick but chances are most owners want a 1st.
joey
Footballguy
I imagine most owners are at a “well, I’ve held him for this long, I might as well wait it out” state of mind. That’s me at least in 2 leagues where I roster him.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Totally disagree. He'll be more than fine, if healthy, which I'd bet on. Dude's a beast, he just got injured, it's football. He's still young, I expect him to bounce back and won't be over-used (sorry FFs).
But come December, he'll be racking up the yards and they'll be fine with that D.
They need to fortify the OL some more. Plenty to like on this team, who finally has more than a high school coach at the helm.
