zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed, although the torn PCL and LCL on top of the ACL is scary. We'll see what Dr. Morse and a few of the other Twitter docs think.
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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
I'd like opinions so as not to send an insulting offer. Javonte owner in my league is in big time win now mode, his current RB2 is now Elliot and I'm loaded at RB but my team is off to a shaky start so I'm looking for the future. He also has Ridley who I have interest in as well.
Would offering Mixon or James Robinson along with someone like Julio or Gage and a third round pick in 2023 for Javonte and Ridley be somethign you would view as insulting or getting low balled?
Would offering Mixon or James Robinson along with someone like Julio or Gage and a third round pick in 2023 for Javonte and Ridley be somethign you would view as insulting or getting low balled?
In win now mode the Mixon offer would likely be received better than the J-Rob offer (J-Rob still gets no respect).
I am curious as to why you want Ridley. I don't seem him as ever being meaningful in FF again. If this owner feels the same as me you could probably get him for a song.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes - see: Dobbins. Longer recovery than just ACL. I would expect a similar track to what Dobbins went through timeline-wise. Probably a really solid mid-round redraft pick for those who are patient next year.
Thanks for your reply and obviously don't share this opinion in the tiniest least. I fully expect him to return and be a WR1/2 for next 2-3 years, depending where he plays.
Sasgaard
Footballguy
This type of injury might be something he never recovers fully from.
Galileo
Footballguy
I guess Dr. Morse was wrong...
sho nuff
Footballguy
Awful news for a player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
How so? Dobbins had the exact same thing, no?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Don’t know extent of Williams injury , but Dobbins did more damage than ACL
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As someone who's about to have knee surgery, likely in January (microfracture, not tendon) I've learned a lot in the last few weeks.
I stepped on a dog toy on the back steps & jammed my knee. It's been jacked up ever since, and walking up or down stairs is...challenging. Anyway, in my situation, I have damage to the cartilage at the end of my femur, from where it jammed into the tibia under the cap, and also some bone necrosis under the cartilage from where the bone hit.
They found this with the MRI, but as it turns out, there are spots on the body that the MRI can't see as effectively. It's excellent with tendons, but not so good with the area between the leg bones, under the knee cap. So in my case, they have a surgery planned, but will be using a scope to see in there to determine if I need cadaver cartilage, which would be another procedure.
The point here is that someone watching an injury on television can make some guesses, but without looking at an MRI or doing a physical exam on the knee, it's really just that - a total guess. And even with an MRI, there could still be more to it - gotta get in and take a look.
I think Fantasy Doctors are doing their best to make those best guesses, and I don't think there's any malice in what the do, nor should there be any scorn for their failures when they get something wrong - it's just a byproduct of the information age we live in. People want answers NOW, and they're capitalizing on that void. I don't see much harm in it, but I can see how it cheeses some folks off.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right - and so did Williams. It's being reported that it's ACL, PCL, Meniscus, etc. Basically blew out his whole knee infrastructure. Same injury Dobbins had. That was why I'm wondering why someone is questioning whether this is non-recoverable. We've seen plenty of examples of players recovering from it - it just takes a lot longer than an ACL.
It's possible just not likely.
We've seen a few players return and not quite look like their old selves and while not the same caliber of player we did see Tarik Cohen's career look likely shot over an ACL(before later having I think achilles blow up trying to make a comeback). We've also seen RB's like Lev Bell return from a multi-ligament ACL injury just fine at almost the start of the next season(I think that was the year he had a 3 game suspension)
I think your Dobbins example is a great one however in terms of setting expectations for next year. Sure it could be worse or better but right now I'd have to say odds suggest he fully recovers but this injury might bleed into a large portion of next season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree - Dobbins took what, 13+ months to recover? It's week 4, so that could be week 7-8 next year? Maybe work his way back slowly like Dobbins.
Whatever it is, I wish JaWill luck - I have no shares but I love watching him play, and hope to see him at a high level again.
On a FF note, what a cruel irony that JaWill shareholders have been waiting and waiting for him to take over the backfield, and now with Gordon very likely gone in 2023, so is JaWill.
FF is a cruel mistress.
Chaka
Footballguy
Are we saying Dobbins is back to his old self?
20 carries for 64 yards (3.2 and a long of 12), 6 receptions for 39 yards (6.5).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No - not yet. But he appears on track to be his old self. That he was able to handle 20 carries in a weather-situation against the #1 defense indicates some level of trust in his health.
The results are a byproduct of opponent, and his overall offense's execution, so I'm not really concerned with his YPC or YPCatch - those seem like straw man arguments in this context.
1 game isn't a very good sample size to prove or disprove anything, right? I mean, LJax scored ~18 points in that game. Does he suck now?
zamboni
Footballguy
That guy is too busy working on his tan and his game with the ladies.
j/k He's pretty knowledgeable, but is often way off with his takes - which is not surprising if he isn't looking up close at the injury.
Chaka
Footballguy
I agree, which is why I think it is way premature to speculate on Javonte's potential recovery outcomes based on a guy whose recovery outcome we still do not know.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No thanks, I already dominated my fantasy league for breakfast.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh without question. I was just musing pragmatically, looking for the silver lining to a very dark cloud. I know a lot of dynasty shareholders are in a place of doom and gloom and it just sort of stream of consciousness occurred to me that he could be a redraft value IF everything goes right. Maybe even a buy-low opportunity for dynasty.
I’m assuming everything goes well with surgery, and they don’t find anything else while in there, and he goes through a normal recovery without setbacks.
It’s a long road ahead for the young man. Medical science is pretty good with knees these days, so I’m optimistic.
Of course my optimism might be dashed by any number of those things going awry, but I’d prefer to stay positive.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You have the whole day ahead of you, too!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Dinner domination is on the menu.
zamboni
Footballguy
That sounds about right. His dynasty value is assuredly going to plummet, so if you own him in dynasty, you probably have to hold or sell him to a rebuilding team. Conversely, if you don't own him and don't have a good chance at winning this year, may be a good buying opportunity if you think he'll be close to his former self after the lengthy rehab/recovery.
Galileo
Footballguy
No doubt. I 100% agree. I was just having a little fun referencing my previous post. I would never take speculation from a distance as a reliable diagnosis. I do not fault Fantasy Doctors in any way, nor am I "cheesed off". I get what they are trying to do.
Now, let's look at that Tua video replay...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Which one, the "back" injury, or the super cringe-inducing full blown concussion stroke video?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Awesome, sounds like most are throwing dirt on his career, sounds good, no reason to be more bloody descriptive in your inner knowledge of torn knee ligaments.
Bottom Line-typically you don't want to buy a car that has been in a major accident or really any fender bender but you hate to buy a rebuilt title.
-Not the same thing but somewhat similar here. I think Williams is going to take a long time to recover and it's a shame because many felt he was perhaps the best RB to be drafted in the last couple seasons and folks were optimistic.
That's over, football is brutal and even the best prospects at RB just tear their knees and legs apart because that's the nature of football and they are never going to protect Running Backs the way they do the QB so nobody should even try to fill these RB spots on teams. Revolutionize the game and athletes refuse to play RB due to the hideous nature of injuries, why would anyone even want to try and play the position? You never get paid much and you end up on injured reserve all the time.
I think I've even posted something similar previously
Boycott RBs, draft all WRs and set the league rules to honor that. Respect RBs, admire them the way you do an endangered species but don't take an active hand in tearing their ACLs apart by playing any FF league where they draft RBs, you are guilty by association.
-How is MoP doing here?
Bottom Line-typically you don't want to buy a car that has been in a major accident or really any fender bender but you hate to buy a rebuilt title.
-Not the same thing but somewhat similar here. I think Williams is going to take a long time to recover and it's a shame because many felt he was perhaps the best RB to be drafted in the last couple seasons and folks were optimistic.
That's over, football is brutal and even the best prospects at RB just tear their knees and legs apart because that's the nature of football and they are never going to protect Running Backs the way they do the QB so nobody should even try to fill these RB spots on teams. Revolutionize the game and athletes refuse to play RB due to the hideous nature of injuries, why would anyone even want to try and play the position? You never get paid much and you end up on injured reserve all the time.
I think I've even posted something similar previously
Boycott RBs, draft all WRs and set the league rules to honor that. Respect RBs, admire them the way you do an endangered species but don't take an active hand in tearing their ACLs apart by playing any FF league where they draft RBs, you are guilty by association.
-How is MoP doing here?
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jtd13
Footballguy
I'm not sure about dirt on his career, but recoveries form similar multi ligament knee injuries like Dobbins, Barkley, and we could even say Penny, suggest he probably gets back to pre-injury form, but it probably won't be until 2nd half of 2023 at earliest.
My concern with buying is a lot can happen between now and mid-season next year. For example, Denver might know they won't have him to start the year and do something more long term than bringing back MelGo. If that risk is baked into the price I'll buy the injury discount.
Overall I agree with @Ministry of Pain . Pay up for WRs. I'll add buy injury discounted RBs, not the new shiny ones.
My concern with buying is a lot can happen between now and mid-season next year. For example, Denver might know they won't have him to start the year and do something more long term than bringing back MelGo. If that risk is baked into the price I'll buy the injury discount.
Overall I agree with @Ministry of Pain . Pay up for WRs. I'll add buy injury discounted RBs, not the new shiny ones.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Needs more tuna.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
In the London game thread(MN/NO), think we had a SP poster in the stadium and questions about what's on the beer taps quickly turned into a Gummi Candy Buffet inside and I thought oh boy, I wonder if they have Swedish Fish on there. Tuna is on my FFA Mt Rushmore for sure and the red fishies would be on there as well.
rockaction
Footballguy
I feel horrible for Javonte. He never got his chance to really shine. I think he's coming back three-quarters of the way back next year, which means he'll have missed a full year and a half of playing time, and he'll be coming back at the worst time. He'll have effectively missed two years. What a shame for the young man and his career potential earnings. Just awful.
Dez
Footballguy
Maybe but I thought James Robinson and Cam Akers had injuries that they would never recover from or at least that is what was said about them at the time they went down. Robinson was left for dead this year and Akers for his career when it happened.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I must say, the guys in my league do not care about sending whatever crappy offer they just thought up.
I am like you though, I don’t want to offend the other guy and further harm future negotiations.
With that said, I don’t see those as an insulting offer.
Agreed, JW is only 22 right now. Even if he’s not 100% next year, you are still talking about a 24 year old going into a contract year in 2024. Lots of time for him to heal and have a lot of seasons ahead of him.
Certainly room to worry about Denver bringing in potential competition but one offsetting factor is they are low on draft picks (no 1st or 2nd in 2023) and low on salary cap space after trading for and extending Wilson. Unless they can trade for someone on the cheap, going to be tough to bring in any significant big name threat to JW with those constraints. I’d expect it will be more like LA did last year bringing in a short-term rental like Michel but I guess you never know.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think the competition threat is valid. Team brass, whether it's Hackett or someone else, did not draft Javonte and thus may elect to handpick their own guy - especially if they think that Javonte may not be ready at the beginning of the season. As for draft capital, they may not get one of the top RBs coming out without a 1st or 2nd rounder, but we've seen time and again that you can get good backs later (see Dameon Pierce as a recent example). As for free agency, long gone are the days when you had to pay up for free agent RBs. They could get a Miles Sanders or Tony Pollard type for a reasonable 2 year deal along the lines of what Chase Edmonds got.
It's a long way to go, but I think it's fair to assume that Javonte will have stronger competition than Gordon come 2023.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fun fact: they are called Swedish Fish because they are Lingonberry-flavored.
Lingonberry jam is what is served with Swedish meatballs & gravy - you can get jars of it at IKEA.
Yes, I once googled what makes Swedish fish Swedish. You're welcome
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree 100%
Mixon++ for JaWill is actually a very generous offer in light of the total knee reconstruction he's about to undergo. I would be hesitant to pay that much for him, actually. Far from insulting - I think it's an overpay.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would at least wait until JaWill's surgical results are known. Even then I think it's an overpay considering the long road ahead. Again, Dobbins is the mosrt recent example and it was 14 months until he got into a game.
It’s a new coaching staff this year but it’s the same GM that calls the shots and that traded up for JW last year to take him at 35 overall. There’s certainly a possibility they go out and spend on a FA RB (I disagree that Sanders or Pollard will be as cheap as a guy like Edmonds but RB’s don’t get what they used to on the open market these days so who knows) but seems pretty unlikely given their cap situation IMO. On paper it looks like they have decent amount of space next year but that’s because they haven’t extended Bradley Chubb yet who is a UFA in 2023. He’s going to command probably a minimum of a 5/75MM contract and they’ve got lots of other FA holes to fill also. Maybe they spend a pick on a late-round guy that is a gem but for every Pierce there are tons of late rounds guys we forget about by the next draft class.
I thought so as well which is why I wanted a small bump and added an early third and Julio while to Mixon to get back Javonte and Ridley. Did not work as the guy wanted Hurts.
I think the conversation here has been pretty good on Javonte and what he's looking at. I'm using a Dobbins timeline which suggests he's not going to be ready until close to mid-season next year as my best guess. Denver's not going to just leave the spot open and it's not expensive adding a RB whether it's draft or not. A guy like Mattison with ties to Paton comes to mind and if Gordon keeps fumbling that might be something we see before the off season. Honestly I don't know how anyone can see the 2 back system that Hackett wants to run combined with strong chance Javonte won't be ready next year and convince themselves that Denver won't be adding a significant RB next off-season, if not sooner. And unless Hackett is one and done this is not exactly the best system for a RB1 type anyways so as much as I love the talent of Javonte the reality is you are probably waiting for a half a season into 2023 to get RB2 type numbers.
I was still good giving up Mixon for Javonte and a little bump because my team is deep at RB and I'd rather push some of those present RB assets to the future but IMO this is the most likely outcome for Javonte next season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
One big problem is that this coaching staff - and it's two back system - are text book examples of one and done.
The rest I totally agree with.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Could also bode well for JaWill since the next coaching staff may not be as inclined to go RBBC once he’s 100%.
Todem
Footballguy
I would not touch him.....he has a very serious knee injury. Why trade for that in a dynasty league. You can draft RB’s every year. The shelf life to too short to trade healthy productive capital for severely damaged goods.
Makes zero sense.
Trust your draft prowess. RB’s are actually easy to fill and find via the draft and waiver wire. Williams was a heck of talent before the injury. It is truly unfortunate. But his odds are IMO 50/50 he is ever the same back.
Obviously....up to you.
Makes zero sense.
Trust your draft prowess. RB’s are actually easy to fill and find via the draft and waiver wire. Williams was a heck of talent before the injury. It is truly unfortunate. But his odds are IMO 50/50 he is ever the same back.
Obviously....up to you.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
dropping him tonight, he's unlikely to recover to the point he was before the injury. Part of me is glad this happened, not because he got hurt , but because I no longer have to start him every week. you get hung up with the notion that he was always a must-start regardless of matchup, and he almost always fell short of expectations.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Dropping in dynasty??? I assume dynasty is implied since he is an obvious drop in redraft.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In a dynasty league a guy offered me Williams and a 2023 2nd rd pick for Breece Hall and Michael Carter. I politely declined.
