What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Jeff Wilson, MIA (1 Viewer)

The 49ers ran the ball 11 times, one a scramble by JimmyG.

not sure there’s any value in this backfield looking forward. This team is a hot mess. :(  

 
The 49ers ran the ball 11 times, one a scramble by JimmyG.

not sure there’s any value in this backfield looking forward. This team is a hot mess. :(  
Even in a negative gamescript, Mitchell pulled out a decent day in PPR. There's definitely value; it's just reserved for one lead guy. 

 
The biggest thing to be is the message you send by making him active. Now it's understandable a guy would be eased in not see snaps first game back from a serious injury. But... why would you make Sermon inactive if you weren't going to play Wilson snaps to begin with? Now you're just messing with Sermon in a similar manner he messed with Pettis/Ayuk/(insert 49ers player), it makes little sense.
All of this. Kyle seems to have some narcissistic/dictator issues flying around here.

 
Why do you think it will be inconsistant?  Mitchell seems like the clear lead back and he delivered 12 points in PPR in a negative game script yesterday.
Because I don’t trust Shanny to stick to any semblance of a logical game plan week to week. 

Also detrimental, rostering a SF RB means having to watch this crap team, which could be bad for one’s mental health. Trust me, I’m a fan. :(  
 

ETA: also, don’t underestimate his love for Wilson. I don’t think it’s safe to assume anything from His 1st game back. I suspect he’ll be worked into the offense more as the weeks go on. I could be wrong. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Because I don’t trust Shanny to stick to any semblance of a logical game plan week to week. 

Also detrimental, rostering a SF RB means having to watch this crap team, which could be bad for one’s mental health. Trust me, I’m a fan. :(  
Based on what though? In standard scoring, I can see an argument. But in PPR, if Mitchell is going to be seeing targets in negative game-scripts then he's matchup-proof. 

Obviously, this comes with the caveat of health but so does every other player's situation. 

 
Based on what though? In standard scoring, I can see an argument. But in PPR, if Mitchell is going to be seeing targets in negative game-scripts then he's matchup-proof. 

Obviously, this comes with the caveat of health but so does every other player's situation. 
Call it a hunch after I’ve rostered Niners RBs the last few years. It’s just never as trustworthy or stable as one might believe moment to moment. 

again, I could be wrong. Fully concede that. It’s just hard to be confident about anything with this team right now. 

 
Call it a hunch after I’ve rostered Niners RBs the last few years. It’s just never as trustworthy or stable as one might believe moment to moment. 

again, I could be wrong. Fully concede that. It’s just hard to be confident about anything with this team right now. 
I totally understand the apprehension in regards to 49ers RBs, but I think it's overblown. Most of the carousel aspects of 49ers RBs is due to health. Barring injury, Shanahan tends to lean on one guy. 

 
Based on what though? In standard scoring, I can see an argument. But in PPR, if Mitchell is going to be seeing targets in negative game-scripts then he's matchup-proof. 

Obviously, this comes with the caveat of health but so does every other player's situation. 
Are you confident that's going to continue though? Mitchell had 4 catches for 30 yards on the season before yesterday, and Hasty was in on their final 2 drives, not Mitchell.

I totally understand the apprehension in regards to 49ers RBs, but I think it's overblown. Most of the carousel aspects of 49ers RBs is due to health. Barring injury, Shanahan tends to lean on one guy. 
Pretty sure it's the opposite- barring injury, Shanny tends to divvy the touches up and only tends to lean on one guy when others are injured.

 
Barring injury, Shanahan tends to lean on one guy. 
Something I’ve posted here several times, almost to the letter. 

I’m just sayin, I won’t be shocked at all if Wilson is worked into the offense & muddies the waters for FF owners. They didn’t bring him off the IR to not play him at all. If the season started with all of the backs healthy, Wilson would have likely been ahead of Mitchen, behind Mostert on the depth chart.

I know Mitchell has shown well, but it’s worth keeping in mind. And I’m sure there will be pressure on Shanny to establish the run after this week’s debacle.  

 
Are you confident that's going to continue though? Mitchell had 4 catches for 30 yards on the season before yesterday, and Hasty was in on their final 2 drives, not Mitchell.

Pretty sure it's the opposite- barring injury, Shanny tends to divvy the touches up and only tends to lean on one guy when others are injured.
All I can say is Mitchell finally saw a negative game-script and got a handful of targets. Until now, it was assumed he could be game-scripted out. Obviously, we'll need to see it happen again but you have to be encouraged by that outing.

In regards to your other point, I've seen no proof of that whatsoever. Care to provide some?

 
All I can say is Mitchell finally saw a negative game-script and got a handful of targets. Until now, it was assumed he could be game-scripted out. Obviously, we'll need to see it happen again but you have to be encouraged by that outing.

In regards to your other point, I've seen no proof of that whatsoever. Care to provide some?
He still could be game scripted out, that's my point. He's been a non-factor in the passing game up until this week, and even this week he wasn't on the field for the last ~8 minutes, Hasty was. Yes, it's encouraging, but far from certain that he's going to be the main receiving back going forward. Time will tell.

Other than watching and following for fantasy, I guess you could go back and look at the box scores. Mostert has been "the guy" for the last year and a half and hasn't once reached 20 carries. Over the last few years they've mixed in Mostert, Coleman, Breida, Morris, Wilson- heck, even Juszczyk has been a thorn in the side at times.

Take a look at Mostert's game logs from last year (that eliminates the games he missed at least), and you'll see plenty of games where he gets ~1/2 of the RB touches.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Something I’ve posted here several times, almost to the letter. 

I’m just sayin, I won’t be shocked at all if Wilson is worked into the offense & muddies the waters for FF owners. They didn’t bring him off the IR to not play him at all. If the season started with all of the backs healthy, Wilson would have likely been ahead of Mitchen, behind Mostert on the depth chart.

I know Mitchell has shown well, but it’s worth keeping in mind. And I’m sure there will be pressure on Shanny to establish the run after this week’s debacle.  
Also, with Mitchells brief history of being dinged up when he carries the load - it's logical that somebody may be used to lighten the load

 
If he can get the passing-3rd down/goaline role he'd had in the past that's the best case scenario for him.


I think the best case scenario is an injury to Mitchell or something to open up a crack for the top job.

But it would appear for now he's at least got the third down gig:

https://twitter.com/CamInman/status/1458898492600971267

49ers' Shanahan: -Trey Lance still in cameo role -Elijah Mitchell is starting RB, Jeff Wilson 3rd-down RB -Replacing Sanu is Jennings, Sherfield, Benjamin -Banks not ready to replace RG Brunskill -No word on who'll replace RT McGlinchey -Stafford Rams 'a little more aggressive'

 
I think the best case scenario is an injury to Mitchell or something to open up a crack for the top job.
True. But I think it's asking a bit much of Luck for the IR stash you grabbed in like September to get activated and within 1-2 weeks the guy starting ahead of him gets hurt, giving your stash a starting role.

 
aaaaaand here we are, Elijah Mitchell broken finger and ruled Doubtful. Jeff Wilson Jr. gets a juicy matchup vs. Jacksonville and seems a lock for 20 touches.
Is Jax really a juicy matchup?  According to FFT SOS, they are a bottom 5 rushing matchup, based on the last 5 weeks.

 
Wilson has fresh legs and is usually good for one or two blow-up games per year. Let's hope it's this week.

Relieved to be plugging him in over ADP.

 
This. Jacksonville D been pretty good lately. 


Ranked #7 against the run by DVOA, 31st against the pass, so to beat them you throw on them. But Jimmy G needs the run game for his play action passing game. He's a mediocre pocket passer. So Wilson gets volume, but may not do a lot with it unless he gets a goal line plunge or two. But Deebo got all those last week.

 
Ranked #7 against the run by DVOA, 31st against the pass, so to beat them you throw on them. But Jimmy G needs the run game for his play action passing game. He's a mediocre pocket passer. So Wilson gets volume, but may not do a lot with it unless he gets a goal line plunge or two. But Deebo got all those last week.
Solid analysis. DVOA and fantasy points against (noted by Bayhawks upthread), used in conjunction, are a great way to look at how effective teams are against the run or pass for fantasy purposes.

As for Wilson, I held him all year in dynasty for this, and I'm likely starting Gallup instead. 

 
Do you trust the SF zone running scheme more, or Jacksonville D at home more? I saw this stat on Reddit and double checked Football Reference... Jeff Wilson has had 6 games in his career he had 16 or more touches (in order):

23-133-0

24-96-0

19-120-3

16-60-1

23-204-1

23-88-2

Now how much of the pass catching role he'll have I dunno, but if he gets the amount of passing work he used to have, I'll take JWJ in this matchup.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
San Fran going west to east for the 1pm is my only concern.  I think they want Wilson to succeed and the box won’t be stacked with their pass catchers 

 
San Fran going west to east for the 1pm is my only concern.  I think they want Wilson to succeed and the box won’t be stacked with their pass catchers 
I'm definitely worried about the start time.  I also picked up the SF defense, and I could see that possibly affecting the DST more than the SF offense.  Plus they last played on Monday night, making the turnaround to the 1 PM game even shorter.  And they were certainly emotionally high against a division opponent, while nobody gets emotionally high against the Jags.  (Whose nickname is synonymous with Just A (bunch of) Guys).

The biggest argument in favor of Wilson this week is he should be the lead RB in a Shanahan offense.  That player (whoever it happens to be most weeks, and it doesn't seem to matter much who the player is) usually does quite well.  So my biggest concern would be the role for Sermon but also Deebo Samuel.  Wilson was a very effective blocker for Samuel last week, and it could happen again this week.

 
I'm definitely worried about the start time.  I also picked up the SF defense, and I could see that possibly affecting the DST more than the SF offense.  Plus they last played on Monday night, making the turnaround to the 1 PM game even shorter.  And they were certainly emotionally high against a division opponent, while nobody gets emotionally high against the Jags.  (Whose nickname is synonymous with Just A (bunch of) Guys).

The biggest argument in favor of Wilson this week is he should be the lead RB in a Shanahan offense.  That player (whoever it happens to be most weeks, and it doesn't seem to matter much who the player is) usually does quite well.  So my biggest concern would be the role for Sermon but also Deebo Samuel.  Wilson was a very effective blocker for Samuel last week, and it could happen again this week.
That was the first time I really remember Deebo getting that usage and let’s hope they saved it for a big game in a big spot.  They should be able to beat jax a bunch of ways 

 
I'm so glad I got Wilson as a throw in earlier this year for just this exact weekend.   Hope he and deebo go off.

 
They crushed the jags last time in Jax. This year it looks like only their divisional opponents have run well on them.

for whatever reason both Phins and Jags are playing good D when at home. Florida D?

 
I'm going to throw out a theory -

I saw Wilson making a lot of blocks during designed Deebo runs last week.   I say him starting gets Deebo at least three carries.

 
Who am I kidding? I'm starting both Wilson and Gallup and benching McLaurin because I don't trust McLaurin's variance this year with Heinecke. Yeah, no projections agree with me. You know what? Forget projections. Carolina has a tough defense and Washington has a shoddy line from what I hear. 

 
Who am I kidding? I'm starting both Wilson and Gallup and benching McLaurin because I don't trust McLaurin's variance this year with Heinecke. Yeah, no projections agree with me. You know what? Forget projections. Carolina has a tough defense and Washington has a shoddy line from what I hear. 
#### yes, go with the gut!

 
#### yes, go with the gut!
Sort of? I'm going with reason. If you look at McLaurin's finishes, if he's not a WR1 or 2, he's way down there. And the WR1 and 2 finishes have been a little few and far between. Game script gets away from the WFT and they flail. Plus, he faces tons of double coverage and isn't allowed any time to breathe. Getting Samuel back would help greatly. 

Gallup and Lamb should feast in a barnburner against KC. Wilson should get the majority of ground work against JAX. Let's hope it's enough to justify a spot start. 

This is also why I held in dynasty. 

 
Sort of? I'm going with reason. If you look at McLaurin's finishes, if he's not a WR1 or 2, he's way down there. And the WR1 and 2 finishes have been a little few and far between. Game script gets away from the WFT and they flail. Plus, he faces tons of double coverage and isn't allowed any time to breathe. Getting Samuel back would help greatly. 

Gallup and Lamb should feast in a barnburner against KC. Wilson should get the majority of ground work against JAX. Let's hope it's enough to justify a spot start. 

This is also why I held in dynasty. 
This is why I held in dynasty too.  Starting with confidence that he'll get 60%+ of the backfield.  All you can ask for.

Need Gallup to suck though, sorry.  Just mortgaged my future and I can't have some third WR blowing up.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top