Honest question: How many wins do you think the NYJ will have in 2022 assuming Hall is their leading rusher?
Six or seven games. That's not the point. I disagree with your premise, which is that you need a contending team in order to even barely justify taking an RB in the second round the way that the Jets did. Even PFF, which had one guy slag them for doing what they did, walked it way, way back when their main guys got in front of the camera.
And there's reasons for that.
First, the way the draft fell, all of the premier offensive tackles were already gone by #36.
Second, only EDGEs with questions remained at the premier positions. There was no premier QB, CB, DE, or OT to be seen, an if there was, only OT hadn't already been addressed by the Jets in the offseason and draft.
Third, the #146 that they dealt in order to move up over Houston (who was rumored to be taking Hall) has a hit rate of making the pros that is minuscule. That's not a premier pick to have dealt. Odds are staggeringly against that guy at #146 making a meaningful impact in the pros, whereas the ability to move up over a team likely to pick the guy you have a first-round grade on is a significant motivation and reason to deal.
Fourth, it was their fourth pick. They'd already gone BPA/need at those premier positions listed above.
And fifth, there's the team situation. You have a second-year QB that needs a solid ground game around him to take pressure off of him. He was shaky last year. If you're confident in your line (and this is the big question mark of the Jets' draft) then you can take a running back at that position in the draft.
So no, Melvin Gordon and kicking the can down the road with Michael Carter was not the best move for the Jets. The best move was what they did. The process isn't as faulty as analytics guys have it. In fact, analytics, when you look at hit rates by pick and position, would say that the deal for Hall was an insignificant enough loss to justify it, and that the need was there, as was the player board for Hall (he was nineteenth on their board).
I normally loathe taking RBs that early. But at some point in the second, they will be taken. The hit rates at RB (at least for fantasy purposes) are also starting to be measured historically with more accuracy, and you don't get premier talent sitting on the corner so much anymore. For every James Robinson or Elijah Mitchell, there's twenty guys that don't sniff the field as late draft picks. Jets went blue chip.
Now, will it work? I don't know. Hall's running style is a patient one, and the old 49ers system wants one-cut-and-go guys. We will see about the line and how Hall adapts.
But the process was nowhere near as faulty as some (and you) have made it out to be.
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