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RB Mike Davis, BAL (1 Viewer)

MIKE DAVIS RB, ATLANTA FALCONS

Falcons RBs coach Desmond Kitchings said "the door is wide open" for any running back to start.

Having said that, Kitchings admitted that he initially tried to recruit Mike Davis out of college and referred to him as a "natural pass catcher." Kitchings also said he's "gotten a lot of background on" Qadree Ollison and that UDFA Javian Hawkins "brings the speed the room didn't have before." Atlanta has a league-high 364 carries (88.9%) available from last year's production, which is more than enough to jolt whomever wins the job into the RB2 range. Davis remains the favorite given his versatile skillset.

SOURCE: Tori McElhaney on Twitter

May 10, 2021, 3:43 PM ET
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Drunken Cowboy said:
I think people are really sleeping on Davis. He should have a really good year.
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I agree with you. Very little notable competition for touches in this backfield, and I thought he was pretty solid in Carolina last year. Even if they add more depth via free agency, which wouldn’t surprise me at all, there’s really no one out there that I feel is going to take meaningful touches from Davis. I think He could push for 1K rushing and add 35-45 catches. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
I agree with you. Very little notable competition for touches in this backfield, and I thought he was pretty solid in Carolina last year. Even if they add more depth via free agency, which wouldn’t surprise me at all, there’s really no one out there that I feel is going to take meaningful touches from Davis. I think He could push for 1K rushing and add 35-45 catches. 
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That might be his floor 

 
@JFS171 we have had many discussions about Mike Davis over the years and I just want to say you kept the faith on him more than I did and based on what Davis accomplished last year and what he may do this year I want to say you were more right about him being worthwhile than I was.

I have always liked him. His skill set is totally in the wheel house of what I am looking for in RBs.

 
I'm seeing a ton of love for Davis from smart analysts and I can see the appeal: he's a good pass-catcher playing in a good offense for a HC who likes to run and didn't bring in any meaningful competition.  With that said, I do wonder if this is one of those cases where we're valuing the situation over the actual player.  Davis was an adequate fill-in for CMC but he was rarely spectacular. He never had 90 yards rushing in a game and had over 70 only twice. Most of his value came from the fact that Bridgewater checked down to him a lot in the first few games (he had 33 targets in the first 4 games after CMC went down) but that faded, too. He averaged under 4 yards on the season.  Granted, he played behind an awful line and I know his advanced stats look good, but I'm not sold.  The Falcons won't be a good team this year and I wonder whether they'll look to shift the job over to Ollison or Hawkins as the season goes on.  Also, their schedule - while not terrible - is not easy against the run, with games against Washington, San Francisco, the Giants, and Jets (in addition to facing the Bucs and Saints twice).  I definitely think it's possible that Davis could represent good value but I don't see him as someone to reach for and I do worry that there's a history of veterans landing in supposedly good situations and not living up to expectations (David Johnson, Lamar Miller, etc).

 
Bair Mail: Mike Davis' prospects, Richie Grant's impact and what padded practices told us

Excerpt:

Travis Bryant from Cape Garardeau, Mo.

I feel like Mike Davis is in a great position to shine as he is flying under the radar, especially after doing so well in Carolina taking over for an injured Christian McCaffrey. Picking him up on my fantasy football team last year got me huge wins (not to mention also having Calvin Ridley AND Derrick Henry to boot). I just think this year is going to be a good chance to show last year was no anomaly. What do you think?

Bair: The Falcons certainly hope you're right, that he can become an efficient, hard-charging feature back who can wear defenses down and close out games they lead. He'll have an opportunity to do that this season after spending most of his career as a secondary option. He has done well filling in for Christian McCaffrey in Carolina and Chris Carson in Seattle, though his per carry average won't wow you.

I won't say Davis should be out to prove 2020 was an anomaly. He should want more after averaging 3.9 yards per carry with six touchdowns.

We've only had pads on three practices now, but it's clear Davis is a hard runner with more wiggle than you think. Head coach Arthur Smith has mentioned using several backs in roles earned this summer, though Davis will get first crack at early downs. Smith also said that, just because Derrick Henry was a one-man workhorse under his coordination in Tennessee doesn't mean the Falcons will now approach rushing that way.

Others will get opportunities as the Falcons try to improve on last year's rushing inefficiency as well, but it would be a great story to see Atlanta native Mike Davis leading the Falcons back to prominence.
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TS Garp said:
I'm seeing a ton of love for Davis from smart analysts and I can see the appeal: he's a good pass-catcher playing in a good offense for a HC who likes to run and didn't bring in any meaningful competition.  With that said, I do wonder if this is one of those cases where we're valuing the situation over the actual player.  Davis was an adequate fill-in for CMC but he was rarely spectacular. He never had 90 yards rushing in a game and had over 70 only twice. Most of his value came from the fact that Bridgewater checked down to him a lot in the first few games (he had 33 targets in the first 4 games after CMC went down) but that faded, too. He averaged under 4 yards on the season.  Granted, he played behind an awful line and I know his advanced stats look good, but I'm not sold.  The Falcons won't be a good team this year and I wonder whether they'll look to shift the job over to Ollison or Hawkins as the season goes on.  Also, their schedule - while not terrible - is not easy against the run, with games against Washington, San Francisco, the Giants, and Jets (in addition to facing the Bucs and Saints twice).  I definitely think it's possible that Davis could represent good value but I don't see him as someone to reach for and I do worry that there's a history of veterans landing in supposedly good situations and not living up to expectations (David Johnson, Lamar Miller, etc).
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All of those negatives are already baked into his price though. If there were no warts he’d be going in Round 2 because the volume looks like it should be there (which is why situation looks so good).

 
Davis is being undervalued. He's a starter on a team with a good offense, will get volume, GL carries, receptions, top 3 in broken tackles last year, Arthur Smith. Why is he in the same tier as Hunt, Gaskin, Mostert, Henderson & Williams? 

 
SoBeDad said:
Davis is being undervalued. He's a starter on a team with a good offense, will get volume, GL carries, receptions, top 3 in broken tackles last year, Arthur Smith. Why is he in the same tier as Hunt, Gaskin, Mostert, Henderson & Williams? 
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Because he’s a 28 year-old journeyman who is on his 5th team, has carried the ball 70 times per season on average, has averaged 3.9 ypc for his career, and has carried the ball 100+ times only two seasons out of six.

Would I like to have him?  Sure.  At what price?  

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Because he’s a 28 year-old journeyman who is on his 5th team, has carried the ball 70 times per season on average, has averaged 3.9 ypc for his career, and has carried the ball 100+ times only two seasons out of six.

Would I like to have him?  Sure.  At what price?  
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I don't disagree, but this guy is Alfred Morris except Morris got lucky to hit it as a rookie.  It's a microcosm of the NFL story - guys can be really really really really good but unless they are elite they just don't get premium chances handed to them and unless they perform at an elite level the team will always be looking for an upgrade.  When everything lines up like this they can really eat for a short term at which time the team will bring in depth/competition/draft pick investment to ruin it.  Dav is got lucky in that they didn't find anyone else to threaten him this offseason/preseason.  There are a dozen more guys out there all the time just like this that just won't hit the opportunity jackpot but that's how the league works.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Because he’s a 28 year-old journeyman who is on his 5th team, has carried the ball 70 times per season on average, has averaged 3.9 ypc for his career, and has carried the ball 100+ times only two seasons out of six.

Would I like to have him?  Sure.  At what price?  
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The other thing in his favor is lack of competition. Ollison is at 2.3 ypc and Patterson is even older, 30.

 
SoBeDad said:
Davis is being undervalued. He's a starter on a team with a good offense, will get volume, GL carries, receptions, top 3 in broken tackles last year, Arthur Smith. Why is he in the same tier as Hunt, Gaskin, Mostert, Henderson & Williams? 
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Because people think this offense will be mediocre/bad and they have no faith in their run game. There is also a sense that he will lose reps as the team falls out of contention and they try to evaluate the other younger rbs on the roster.

I think Davis is a steal this year but he does have real red flags that have dropped his perceived value.

 
Wise Old Owl said:
Because people think this offense will be mediocre/bad and they have no faith in their run game. There is also a sense that he will lose reps as the team falls out of contention and they try to evaluate the other younger rbs on the roster.

I think Davis is a steal this year but he does have real red flags that have dropped his perceived value.
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What younger RB's are there?  I aint seeing it.  I got Davis in round 5 in my big money league on Sat as my RB2 and I feel incredible about that value. 

 
Hankmoody said:
I don't disagree, but this guy is Alfred Morris except Morris got lucky to hit it as a rookie.  It's a microcosm of the NFL story - guys can be really really really really good but unless they are elite they just don't get premium chances handed to them and unless they perform at an elite level the team will always be looking for an upgrade.  When everything lines up like this they can really eat for a short term at which time the team will bring in depth/competition/draft pick investment to ruin it.  Dav is got lucky in that they didn't find anyone else to threaten him this offseason/preseason.  There are a dozen more guys out there all the time just like this that just won't hit the opportunity jackpot but that's how the league works.
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No disagreement.  Lots of talent out there that never gets a shot.  Except.....this guy has had a shot.  He has ~400 carries over 6 NFL seasons.  And on those 400 carries, he's averaged 3.9 ypc.  Average or mediocre, you decide?

 
Alex P Keaton said:
No disagreement.  Lots of talent out there that never gets a shot.  Except.....this guy has had a shot.  He has ~400 carries over 6 NFL seasons.  And on those 400 carries, he's averaged 3.9 ypc.  Average or mediocre, you decide?
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Davis graded around average last year, but by the eye test he looked even better early in the year before he got banged up. He looked good as a receiver. He had a higher ypc than CMC, in a limited sample. The Carolina offense wasn't good last year. "Cheapest 3 down back":

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-is-mike-davis-the-cheapest-three-down-back-available

 
SoBeDad said:
Davis graded around average last year, but by the eye test he looked even better early in the year before he got banged up. He looked good as a receiver. He had a higher ypc than CMC, in a limited sample. The Carolina offense wasn't good last year. "Cheapest 3 down back":

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-is-mike-davis-the-cheapest-three-down-back-available
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McCaffrey carried the ball 59 times last year for 3.8 ypc.  Small sample size. For his career, he's at 4.6 ypc which is far superior to Davis.

Again, I like Davis (liked him going back to his Seattle days) but can also see why people aren't sold that he's going to be a 3-down back who gets 80% of the touches for 17 games.

 
pantherclub said:
What younger RB's are there?  I aint seeing it.  I got Davis in round 5 in my big money league on Sat as my RB2 and I feel incredible about that value. 
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I agree completely. I'm in on Davis but I am trying to explain the narrative I am seeing around him. The hype for Javian Hawkins was outrageous for a UDFA that didn't even make the team. There are people who are positive that Qadree Ollison will be the starter at some point this year. 

The point is that people do not trust that Davis is the guy here because he's an older journeyman RB and they would rather hype other options regardless of what evidence there is.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
McCaffrey carried the ball 59 times last year for 3.8 ypc.  Small sample size. For his career, he's at 4.6 ypc which is far superior to Davis.

Again, I like Davis (liked him going back to his Seattle days) but can also see why people aren't sold that he's going to be a 3-down back who gets 80% of the touches for 17 games.
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The question becomes where to place Davis against the likes of Hunt, Gaskin, Mostert, Henderson & Williams? I think Davis has a better floor and ceiling. 

 
massraider said:
Allow me to be the first to mention Caleb Huntley.
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You’re not the first haha. He’ll just start to get mentioned again now that Hawkins has been cut. People are trying so hard to talk themselves out of Davis. Sometimes you don’t need to overthink it. Qadree Ollison is not taking this job, either. 

 
If I could be guaranteed he'd be there for me at 5.11, I'd take him as my RB2 at 5.11 and crush my (ppr 2 flex) league with 1 RB and 3 elite WR with my first 4 picks. Feels risky though and would rather take him as an RB3 and keep mining those later rounds for WRs. 

 
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Alex P Keaton said:
McCaffrey carried the ball 59 times last year for 3.8 ypc.  Small sample size. For his career, he's at 4.6 ypc which is far superior to Davis.

Again, I like Davis (liked him going back to his Seattle days) but can also see why people aren't sold that he's going to be a 3-down back who gets 80% of the touches for 17 games.
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In this situation its not about talent.  Its about him being a 3 down back with absolutely nobody breathing down his neck trying to take his reps.  Its sheer volume.  Add in the fact that the Falcons should be playing catch up due to a bad defense then Davis looks like he will produce at the worst RB2 numbers with a chance to go way beyond that due to being the GL back.

 
pantherclub said:
In this situation its not about talent.  Its about him being a 3 down back with absolutely nobody breathing down his neck trying to take his reps.  Its sheer volume.  Add in the fact that the Falcons should be playing catch up due to a bad defense then Davis looks like he will produce at the worst RB2 numbers with a chance to go way beyond that due to being the GL back.
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I'm not sure why this topic wasn't bumped earlier. No respect for Mike Davis.

 
greenmountaingoat said:
If I could be guaranteed he'd be there for me at 5.11, I'd take him as my RB2 at 5.11 and crush my (ppr 2 flex) league with 1 RB and 3 elite WR with my first 4 picks. Feels risky though and would rather take him as an RB3 and keep mining those later rounds for WRs. 
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Got him at 6.7 in a very competitive, 12 team PPR league last night.

 
Got him at 5.3 yesterday. 23rd RB off the board ahead of Gaskin, Mostart, Edwards, D.Harris (6th round by me), Edmunds, and Hunt (these were the rb taken in rounds 5 and 6). Gladly take and use him as my RB2.

 
I like Davis' value if you go modified zero RB

1st RB

2nd WR

3rd WR

4th WR

5th Davis 

If I start RB/RB I'm much less likely to consider him...would need to slide to the 7th.

 
I’d highly recommend spending a late pick on Ollison if you draft Davis. 

Ollison is bigger, stronger and a better receiver than Davis, and I remain baffled as to why they even bothered to bring Davis in. 

Davis didn't wow me once last year, and he’s a guy I’ve paid attention to since he began is thoroughly mediocre career with my Niners. He washed out. He went to Seattle. He washed out. He got a shot with CMC out & did his JAG thing. Lots of plodding. His best year in Seattle he was better than he was in Carolina.

IMO he’s the most vulnerable RB to losing his job. Ollison has looked really good this preseason, and I wouldn’t at all he surprised to see Davis lose his gig if he isn’t getting it done. 

Sorry to be all doom & gloom - I know some folks are high on Davis. Just sayin - don’t spend a top 6 round pick on him & fail to handcuff.

The real zero RB dudes will skip Davis & just draft Ollison, IMO. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’d highly recommend spending a late pick on Ollison if you draft Davis. 

Ollison is bigger, stronger and a better receiver than Davis, and I remain baffled as to why they even bothered to bring Davis in. 

Davis didn't wow me once last year, and he’s a guy I’ve paid attention to since he began is thoroughly mediocre career with my Niners. He washed out. He went to Seattle. He washed out. He got a shot with CMC out & did his JAG thing. Lots of plodding. His best year in Seattle he was better than he was in Carolina.

IMO he’s the most vulnerable RB to losing his job. Ollison has looked really good this preseason, and I wouldn’t at all he surprised to see Davis lose his gig if he isn’t getting it done. 

Sorry to be all doom & gloom - I know some folks are high on Davis. Just sayin - don’t spend a top 6 round pick on him & fail to handcuff.

The real zero RB dudes will skip Davis & just draft Ollison, IMO. 
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Ollison had 12 carries for 33 yards and 1 catch for 6 yards this preseason.  And this article seems to think he’s fallen to #3.  
 

 https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/falcons-qadree-ollison-falls-back-in-pecking-order/

And here’s one that says he’s on the roster bubble...

https://www.4for4.com/news/falcons-beat-qadree-ollison-roster-bubble

So I’d be curious as to WHY you think he’s going to take over as the starter...

 
Boone22 said:
Ollison had 12 carries for 33 yards and 1 catch for 6 yards this preseason.  And this article seems to think he’s fallen to #3.  
 

 https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/falcons-qadree-ollison-falls-back-in-pecking-order/

And here’s one that says he’s on the roster bubble...

https://www.4for4.com/news/falcons-beat-qadree-ollison-roster-bubble

So I’d be curious as to WHY you think he’s going to take over as the starter...
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It’s not so much that I think Ollison will take over; it’s more I think Mike Davis sucks and always has sucked.

sorry if that was somehow unclear. 
 

whoever the handcuff is, make sure you get him. That’s the takeaway. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s not so much that I think Ollison will take over; it’s more I think Mike Davis sucks and always has sucked.

sorry if that was somehow unclear. 
 

whoever the handcuff is, make sure you get him. That’s the takeaway. 
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He had a 75 pff grade last year. And 8 TDs and 1000 combined yards in 14 and a half games. He was the 3rd best RB at breaking tackles, among those with 100 plus carries. Not a stud, but capable. If he sucked, he wouldn't be in the league this long. Ollison might get some action, but he wasn't even active most games in 2020. Maybe the Falcons pick up a young back on the waiver wire. Maybe they're better served by losing again and picking high draft picks in 2022.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-is-mike-davis-the-cheapest-three-down-back-available

 
SoBeDad said:
He had a 75 pff grade last year. And 8 TDs and 1000 combined yards in 14 and a half games. He was the 3rd best RB at breaking tackles, among those with 100 plus carries. Not a stud, but capable. If he sucked, he wouldn't be in the league this long. Ollison might get some action, but he wasn't even active most games in 2020. Maybe the Falcons pick up a young back on the waiver wire. Maybe they're better served by losing again and picking high draft picks in 2022.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-is-mike-davis-the-cheapest-three-down-back-available
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I see 2020 as an outlier in an otherwise meh career that ranged from below average to JAG. He had volume. If healthy/effective, he should have volume in ATL. 

ATL feels like a pass heavy team, and the fact that they have a swiss cheese secondary & not very good pass rush leads me to believe there will be a substantial number of negative game scripts for Davis. 

I'm not sure if they'll continue to use him if they're playing from behind, but I do know that this team will be taking a lot of shots to Ridley & Pitts. 

And I've never seen any play from Davis where I said, "wow!" - I saw quite a few that resulted in him changing teams. :shrug:  

Good luck Davis owners. I'll happily eat crow if I'm wrong, but I'm not a believer in Mike Davis. I think he was a bad signing by the Falcons. 

 
I remember drafting Justin forsett high after his one dominant year as a 3 down back. Got resigned for a dirt cheap contract (like Davis) and forsett was flat out terrible at age 28/29.

Never again. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s not so much that I think Ollison will take over; it’s more I think Mike Davis sucks and always has sucked.

sorry if that was somehow unclear. 
 

whoever the handcuff is, make sure you get him. That’s the takeaway. 
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again its not a question of talent its opportunity/volume plus nobody else on the roster

It doesnt matter if you think he sucks he is the 3 down back for Atlanta with a head coach known for squeezing talent out of his running backs.  And to get him in the 5th is insanity.  Its called value

 
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If not Ollison then who is the handcuff? Huntley? Patterson? Davis isn't anything special, but he is a solid journeyman capable of playing 3 downs and has shown that in spot duty the last couple seasons. I have been fading him all offseason so far. But unless they make a move from whatever is leftover after today, and I can't imagine it being anything game changing at this point unless someone like Fournette gets a surprise cut, I have to admit I have probably been too low on him. Got a few more drafts this week and next and may give more consideration to him. 

 
barackdhouse said:
If not Ollison then who is the handcuff? Huntley? Patterson? Davis isn't anything special, but he is a solid journeyman capable of playing 3 downs and has shown that in spot duty the last couple seasons. I have been fading him all offseason so far. But unless they make a move from whatever is leftover after today, and I can't imagine it being anything game changing at this point unless someone like Fournette gets a surprise cut, I have to admit I have probably been too low on him. Got a few more drafts this week and next and may give more consideration to him. 
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Huntley IMO. I just looked at the depth chart on ESPN & Ollison is now #3. I am putting in a claim to drop Ollison for Huntley

 
Alex P Keaton said:
No disagreement.  Lots of talent out there that never gets a shot.  Except.....this guy has had a shot.  He has ~400 carries over 6 NFL seasons.  And on those 400 carries, he's averaged 3.9 ypc.  Average or mediocre, you decide?
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It's kind of funny how a distance less than the length of a football makes a huge difference. If he averaged 4.2 ypc nobody would bring it up.

 
Helaire-ious said:
Huntley IMO. I just looked at the depth chart on ESPN & Ollison is now #3. I am putting in a claim to drop Ollison for Huntley
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And this another reason Davis is so appealing. No one even knows who the backup is because they’re all nondescript Jags or niche, gadget guys like Patterson. This is one of the clearest examples of people talking themselves out of a player that I’ve seen this season.

 
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