ITEM #3: Here's the breakdown of how NE (and usually McDaniels) worked rookie RBs into the mix:
2006: Maroney - 175 carries, 22 receptions (shared the load with incumbent Dillon who had 199 and 15)
2008: Green-Ellis - 74 carries, 3 receptions
2011: Ridley - 87 carries, 3 receptions
2011: Vereen - 15 carries, 0 receptions
2014: White - 9 carries, 5 receptions
2018: Michel - 209 carries, 11 receptions (no incumbent RB)
2019: Harris - 4 carries, 0 receptions
2021: Stevenson - 133 carries, 14 receptions (shared the load with incumbent Harris who had 202 and 18)
2022: Strong - 10 carries, 7 receptions
That's great work, but I think everyone can agree Henderson's athletic profile and abilities are FAR SURPERIOR to everyone on that list. In fact I see a bunch of Jags. And how many of those RBs were taken in the 1st or 2nd round?
Maroney and Michel were 1st rounders and Vereen was a 2nd rounder. But yeah Henderson was a superior RB prospect coming out of college to any of those guys listed.
I think there are very valid concerns about how the usage pie will be divided up between him, Stevenson, and Gibson in year 1 but long term Henderson is the guy.
Vereen was late 2nd and missed most of his rookie year with an injury.
Maroney/Sony are the only other two drafted remotely close to the pick they used on Henderson, and they both got work similar to what the Henderson bulls are projection/hoping for, around 200-230 touches.
James White usage is what was brought up multiple times in this thread and spawned that list, but White was generally around 100 touches, never in his whole career exceeded 140, so well below the rookie usage of Maroney/Sony who had similar draft capital to Henderson.
I would say 200ish touches is a base case. Sub 140 would mean he disappointed as a player, and of course there is always the chance that he will end up being too good to limit to the 200ish range (of which neither Maroney nor Sony were, they were both big busts as players and still got to around 200 as rookies).