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RB Trey Sermon, IND (3 Viewers)

tigerz said:
Still too early to give up. Everyone always thinks 3 weeks into the season is enough to cast off a player for the rest of the season. However, it's the guy's first game and they weren't even certain he would start for this game until late in the week so I do think it is understandable that they schemed more Juice and Deebo in case he wasn't able to suit up.

Starting the guy with confidence next week forward? No. But there is a middle ground, especially for growing rookie players. Think you stash and wait for situation to clear up. It's not like you have that many high upside options at RB this year.
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 He was at practice all week, he was out of the concussion protocol on Friday. I am certain they knew on Tuesday that he would be available but had for wait for the wheels of bureaucracy to grind through.

I doubt they schemed much for Mitchell in week one but when Mostert got hurt it sure didn't look like they changed the playbook.

I am absolutely holding this guy. I invested enough draft capital to be patient. I really liked that he always seemed to gain an extra half yard, or more, after contact (even in the backfield). There were definitely positives on Sunday night. 

But he looked lost in the passing game, was hesitant to plant and drive forward (despite what appears to be amazingly quick feet) and if other teams know that he isn't an option in the passing game it makes his road to success this season that much more difficult.

Patience, of course but that doesn't mean we can't point out that the path to fantasy relevance is much narrower than the path to irrelevance.

 
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tigerz said:
I understand the frustrations from an emotional standpoint, but from a logical standpoint, there are competing viewpoints that could be every bit as valid. People say it's too early but I think from an emotional standpoint, we are one bad game / mitchell start away from people writing him off if they aren't there already.

I think if Mitchell is active, then this is a split backfield. Shanahan has had split backfields in the past with more established runners too (Coleman / Freeman) so I wouldn't be surprised if it's always a split backfield going foward. That's how pretty much every other team is as well.

Also your second point isn't entirely fair either. Mostert was out with Mitchell going off in week 1 so if we did re-draft with Mostert being out, he wouldn't have gone up that high since he had to compete with Mitchell.

If we lived in a world where week 1 never happened, Mostert was out for the season, and they named Sermon the starter for week 1 then I can agree with your comment and you could be disappointed if Sermon sucked against the Lions. But we will never know at this point.
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Nothing to do with frustration or emotion. Just that the thing that people wanted to happen when they drafted Sermon happened, and he hasn't taken advantage. He's been seemingly passed by another rookie. So the upside people thought was there when they drafted him (myself included) doesn't look like it's there. That's all. 

Like I said, still definitely a hold, and he's someone I want to see succeed. But for redraft I think the most likely scenario is that the rookies wallow in unpredictable roles week to week until Wilson returns in a month or so, and then it's his job. 

 
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jtd13 said:
Like I said, still definitely a hold, and he's someone I want to see succeed. But for redraft I think the most likely scenario is that the rookies wallow in unpredictable roles week to week until Wilson returns in a month or so, and then it's his job. 
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We expect Wilson to stay healthy this time?

2018 - 6 games played

2019 - 10 games played

2020 - 12 games played

2021 - midseason return?

 
Chaka said:
 He was at practice all week, he was out of the concussion protocol on Friday. I am certain they knew on Tuesday that he would be available but had for wait for the wheels of bureaucracy to grind through.

I doubt they schemed much for Mitchell in week one but when Mostert got hurt it sure didn't look like they changed the playbook.

I am absolutely holding this guy. I invested enough draft capital to be patient. I really liked that he always seemed to gain an extra half yard, or more, after contact (even in the backfield). There were definitely positives on Sunday night. 

But he looked lost in the passing game, was hesitant to plant and drive forward (despite what appears to be amazingly quick feet) and if other teams know that he isn't an option in the passing game it makes his road to success this season that much more difficult.

Patience, of course but that doesn't mean we can't point out that the path to fantasy relevance is much narrower than the path to irrelevance.
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You have to be a pass catching RB to succeed in the NFL now?

 
TripItUp said:
We expect Wilson to stay healthy this time?

2018 - 6 games played

2019 - 10 games played

2020 - 12 games played

2021 - midseason return?
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Maybe not. I think it's kinda pointless to try to predict injuries in football where everyone is injury prone on account of them being large, finely tuned athletes subjecting themselves to frequent collisions with other large, finely tuned athletes.

But even if he takes the job for a few weeks that's worth a stash, and bad for the other members of this backfield in redraft. 

 
TripItUp said:
We expect Wilson to stay healthy this time?

2018 - 6 games played

2019 - 10 games played

2020 - 12 games played

2021 - midseason return?
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I commented on this in the Wilson thread. His health kinda makes the Sermon issues more frustrating because of Wilson's injury you have to hold him even longer.

But to paraphrase an iconic Super Hero; I knew the job was dangerous when I took it.

 
Helaire-ious said:
You have to be a pass catching RB to succeed in the NFL now?
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Of course not but if defenses know that it isn't even remotely part of your game (and Sermon seemed truly lost with his limited receiving opportunities on Sunday, look at his targets in the video above and tell me otherwise) it makes their job that much easier.

He doesn't have to be great, ADP wasn't a great receiver, but it has to be a legitimate threat.

Sermon capped out at 16 receptions in a season at Ohio State. I haven't gone through the game logs but it isn't convincing that makes him a receiving threat in the NFL.

 
Chaka said:
Of course not but if defenses know that it isn't even remotely part of your game (and Sermon seemed truly lost with his limited receiving opportunities on Sunday, look at his targets in the video above and tell me otherwise) it makes their job that much easier.

He doesn't have to be great, ADP wasn't a great receiver, but it has to be a legitimate threat.

Sermon capped out at 16 receptions in a season at Ohio State. I haven't gone through the game logs but it isn't convincing that makes him a receiving threat in the NFL.
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EH, agree to disagree. Jacobs, for example, is no receiving threat that defenses worry about.

 
Helaire-ious said:
EH, agree to disagree. Jacobs, for example, is no receiving threat that defenses worry about.
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Receiving is absolutely a part of Jacob's game and it may be a part of Sermon's.

No one expects Sermon, or Jacobs, to be Alvin Kamara but receiving absolutely needs to be in his tool belt. He really looked lost in the pattern on Sunday.

It was only three targets, so we absolutely can't draw definitive conclusions, but they didn't look at all good against an NFL caliber defense.

Guy looks to need more time to get up to speed. No harm in that.

 
So Mitchell's status is "in limbo" per Rotoworld. 

This is probably just more Shanahanigans, as the young progeny has truly embraced the dark arts of his father.

I would expect to see Mitchell out there carrying the load (and I say this reluctantly as a Sermon owner). But Mitchell owners better hope that's the case, because giving Sermon another crack at lead back duties wouldn't be ideal. He disappointed last week, but this Seattle run D is atrocious. Pretty much anyone can run on them, so if he gets another chance we could see some redemption here.

 
@Hot Sauce Guyhey to continue those thoughts on Sermon from the DH thread....

I did like what I saw from him so far. He didn't blow me away but I don't think there is any reason for concern. He is a rookie and will need to progress more. And I think Mitchell might still be the favorite to be the leader here. But I need to give this more time to settle a little. I definitely saw enough to be confident (enough) starting Sermon in spots where I need a RB, and if Mitchell is out. If they both play I will try really hard to find a 3rd option.

 
barackdhouse said:
@Hot Sauce Guyhey to continue those thoughts on Sermon from the DH thread....

I did like what I saw from him so far. He didn't blow me away but I don't think there is any reason for concern. He is a rookie and will need to progress more. And I think Mitchell might still be the favorite to be the leader here. But I need to give this more time to settle a little. I definitely saw enough to be confident (enough) starting Sermon in spots where I need a RB, and if Mitchell is out. If they both play I will try really hard to find a 3rd option.
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As a Niners fan I have to hold out hope that Waldman was right about him & Shanny is bringing him along slowly.

Like I said in the other topic - he’s had a couple of runs where I thought he made a nice read & showed good burst.

I’d like to see more decisiveness, and I’d like to see a little more power. Lower the shoulder & run someone over kinda thing. 

But those may simply come in time. If he’s the man this week due to a Mitchell absence, I’d say he has a good shot at ~18/87/1 with ~3/28/0? 

If Mitchell plays, maybe just take half that away. 

 
I'm benching Sermon in all leagues until further notice. But for people concerned about his long term value both in dynasty and redraft, Matt Waldman's top 10 from this week dissects a bunch of Sermon runs from last Sunday's Packer matchup, and there is plenty of reason for hope. We can't mitigate Shannahan's fickle nature. And there's very little chance Sermon ever becomes a bellcow in an offense that likes to play a lot of RBs. But I think there's hope that Mitchell and Sermon develop into a solid one/two punch in the next month to make both players high upside RB2. 

 
There was talk of them wanting to run the ball 500 times this year. If Kittle is out I wonder if we start to see a trend in the run heavy direction. 

 
Mitchell unofficially officially out per Sheffy:

@AdamSchefter: 49ers’ RB Elijah Mitchell, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a shoulder injury, will be out Sunday vs. the Seahawks, per source.

I've never been one for church, but this is one Sunday where I'll be praying for a Sermon. 

 
Tough for me to start him, but hope to see him play well. I’m in the boat that he’s got potential as the season wears on (also own Wilson Jr). And if Mitchell’s shoulder has kept him out two weeks… It makes it seem like a ripe opening for Sermon to prove himself.

How much Juiszyk is used today should tell us something.

 
I read something completely logical somewhere else. Where they said sermon was drafted as a future project because all he did was run inside zone with a read option running qb. He and trey were going to be the ones they would build the team around in the future as the teams catch up to the current outside zone scheme. 
 

makes sense that sermon is raw with outside zone and Mitchell would be the current favorite with their existing scheme then. Shanny usually uses two running backs with different strengths. Maybe sermon is really a stash until trey plays.

regardless, if they use a lot of inside zone we may see a good week from him here. But Shanny must not like having his playbook limited.

 
No confidence but it's either him or the likes of Javonte Williams, Kenyan Drake, JD McKissic, these are the types of RBs people are trying to gauge or measure this week. 

RBs in the 25-35 range that will out perform their ranking this week. 

Sermon has a chance to beat the 25-30 range I see him keep being ranked at this week. The potential for more is there. 

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
No confidence but it's either him or the likes of Javonte Williams, Kenyan Drake, JD McKissic, these are the types of RBs people are trying to gauge or measure this week. 

RBs in the 25-35 range that will out perform their ranking this week. 

Sermon has a chance to beat the 25-30 range I see him keep being ranked at this week. The potential for more is there. 
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McKissic is a potentially a good start too with Gibson potentially being held back

 
Johnny Utah #9 said:
Mitchell likely out, Sermon gets to face a terrible run D...

Look
If you had
(Two) shots
Or (two) opportunities
To seize everything you ever wanted
In (two) moments
Would you capture it
Or just let it slip? (Again)

Mom’s spaghetti 🍝 

LFG! (Again)
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Still benching him for AB

 
It's great that Sermon looks alright back there and getting a lot of touches but Mitchell will be coming back and then Wilson looms out there, all I'm saying is I would not assume Sermon has taken the building by storm. 

If Sermon had a long TD run or San Fran was winning almost because of his running and playmaking abilities we would be having a different conversation. but they are losing and it's not really his fault, he's been solid but I would not say he has been overly special or is distancing himself from anyone. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
It's great that Sermon looks alright back there and getting a lot of touches but Mitchell will be coming back and then Wilson looms out there, all I'm saying is I would not assume Sermon has taken the building by storm. 

If Sermon had a long TD run or San Fran was winning almost because of his running and playmaking abilities we would be having a different conversation. but they are losing and it's not really his fault, he's been solid but I would not say he has been overly special or is distancing himself from anyone. 
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I am happy he got so much volume and he performed well, but I agree. I worry he hasn't done enough to put Mitchell on the back burner.

Can we start this.guy if Mitchell comes back next week?

 
Chaka said:
I am happy he got so much volume and he performed well, but I agree. I worry he hasn't done enough to put Mitchell on the back burner.

Can we start this.guy if Mitchell comes back next week?
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No way. 

 
Chaka said:
I am happy he got so much volume and he performed well, but I agree. I worry he hasn't done enough to put Mitchell on the back burner.

Can we start this.guy if Mitchell comes back next week?
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Can't yet...have to see how it plays out with Mitchell back...and even then there is always the head coach looming to muck it all up.  But definitely good to see him get the volume.  And if nothing else you feel he will get carries if you are forced to start him.

 
Trey Sermon rushed 18 times for 89 yards in the 49ers' Week 4 loss to the Seahawks. 

Sermon dominated the backfield attempts for San Francisco, out-carrying Jacques Patrick 18-2. No other running back earned a carry for the 49ers. Despite the rushing volume, Sermon is clearly not trusted with work on passing downs. Kyle Juszczyk saw the only four targets that went to running backs (or fullbacks) for San Francisco this week. As long as Elijah Mitchell is out, Sermon can comfortably be projected to hit 15 carries even in losing efforts. However, Juszczyk's role in the red zone and as a pass-catcher severely caps Sermon's ceiling. He'll sit on the RB2/3 border until Mitchell returns, which could be as early as Week 5 against the Cardinals.

Oct 3, 2021, 10:06 PM ET
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Hard to imagine that performance holds off Mitchell.  It wasn't bad, but it wasn't great either.  Be interesting to see where it goes

 
killface said:
Hard to imagine that performance holds off Mitchell.  It wasn't bad, but it wasn't great either.  Be interesting to see where it goes
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But, to be fair, Mitchell was terrible in his last game. Not like he was lighting the world on fire. 

 
Mitchell would seem to have more passing game chops though, right? IDK with Lance starting if they will want to feature Lance/Sermon on the RPO stuff but I think that is presumably the future. Once again I will likely start neither if they both play.

 
Chaka said:
I am happy he got so much volume and he performed well, but I agree. I worry he hasn't done enough to put Mitchell on the back burner.

Can we start this.guy if Mitchell comes back next week?
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IMO, he was just good enough to keep on my roster but not good enough to start if Mitchell is back.  Awesome.

 
barackdhouse said:
Mitchell would seem to have more passing game chops though, right? IDK with Lance starting if they will want to feature Lance/Sermon on the RPO stuff but I think that is presumably the future. Once again I will likely start neither if they both play.
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The big question is when does Shanahan concede that the future is now?

 
tombonneau said:
The big question is when does Shanahan concede that the future is now?
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Well Jimmy will be out for at least a couple weeks so the Lance part of the equation is in place. If Mitchell is back who knows. If Sermon were HOF material, Mitchell would still have a role. I think 50 50 at best is what we will see. Hot hand and if either falters and or the other runs away with it, then maybe we find clarity. 

And then Jeff Wilson gets activated. Heh.

 
barackdhouse said:
Well Jimmy will be out for at least a couple weeks so the Lance part of the equation is in place. If Mitchell is back who knows. If Sermon were HOF material, Mitchell would still have a role. I think 50 50 at best is what we will see. Hot hand and if either falters and or the other runs away with it, then maybe we find clarity. 

And then Jeff Wilson gets activated. Heh.
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That about sums it up

Sermon needed to impress to not make this a three headed monster.  I don't think he succeeded

 
I don't know.... 18 rushes for 89 yards = 4.9ypc average against a Defense that knows you are running isn't so bad. I'd like to see Sermon get the ball in the air too. Are his hands so bad that Kyle won't throw to him? Not sure what gives there. Jimmy G. couldn't lead the O despite the defense stopping Seattle on 5 straight drives! Is that on Sermon at nearly 5 yards a carry? Is it on Kyle and the play calling? Or is it primarily on Jimmy G?

Agree that it's a murky situation in SF as I'm sure Mitchell will be used in obvious passing downs at least.

I'm still am optimistic with Sermon, it takes some more time to get the blocking and receiving down. I don't think Sermon did too much receiving at Ohio State so that could take some time. Jonathan Taylor seems to be another solid back that took time to get developed.

 
Scooby1974 said:
I don't know.... 18 rushes for 89 yards = 4.9ypc average against a Defense that knows you are running isn't so bad. I'd like to see Sermon get the ball in the air too. Are his hands so bad that Kyle won't throw to him? Not sure what gives there. Jimmy G. couldn't lead the O despite the defense stopping Seattle on 5 straight drives! Is that on Sermon at nearly 5 yards a carry? Is it on Kyle and the play calling? Or is it primarily on Jimmy G?

Agree that it's a murky situation in SF as I'm sure Mitchell will be used in obvious passing downs at least.

I'm still am optimistic with Sermon, it takes some more time to get the blocking and receiving down. I don't think Sermon did too much receiving at Ohio State so that could take some time. Jonathan Taylor seems to be another solid back that took time to get developed.
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Sermon didn't receive a single look in the passing game, not sure if he even ran any routes.

Last week he looked entirely lost whenever he was asked to run pass routes.

That makes him a huge liability in the gameplan.  If he doesn't have full command of the offense it provides a big advantage to opposing defenses 4.9 YPC or not.

 
Chaka said:
Sermon didn't receive a single look in the passing game, not sure if he even ran any routes.

Last week he looked entirely lost whenever he was asked to run pass routes.

That makes him a huge liability in the gameplan.  If he doesn't have full command of the offense it provides a big advantage to opposing defenses 4.9 YPC or not.
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Agreed that he is currently a liability. But 4.9 yards per rush and 89 yards with the D knowing he isn't going out for routes is a tremendous increase from the week before. I gotta think that he continues to develop is all I'm saying.

But SF backfield is a HUGE GUESS for sure.

 
He's the hardest guy on my whole team to figure out what to do with. Every single indication we have so far: looks fated to be the third banana in a backfield with zero usable RBs down the stretch...

Just watched all of his carries this week. Sadly, he looked fine, good even. Not great but good. Like a slightly above replacement NFL back. Not as sudden or juke-y as some guys, kind of like he's a little ..smooth? But guys have a hard time tackling him. Not electric or hugely powerful but he made a lot of guys miss and got going when there was a good hole.

I'll drop him for a bye week TE and he'll end up pulling a Taylor and averaging 20 points a game down the stretch.

In thinking it through, I guess I'll have to drop Jamaal Williams or Ruggs instead. 

When you're losing and most of your team sucks, it's hard to tell what's more annoying. Guys you can seemingly trust to do 70% of what they were drafted to do or guys that you have no idea what to do with. In Sermon's case, the only people that seemingly value him are the people stuck with him, holding out hope. In redraft I don't think I could get a kicker for him :)

Maybe one of the non-owners here that think he's going to be a league winner can talk him up to some of my league mates. 

 
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Owner here and not optimistic.  He doesn't look great when he gets ball and is anything but explosive.  He had two weeks to try and take this job and just didn't do it.  I bet this is Mitchell's backfield when he comes back.

 
Sermon is a terrific fit as an occasional flex player with a chance to become a key contributor in playoffs.  I’d consider this a buy low opportunity to prey upon Sermon owners fretting about status going forward.

 
zoonation said:
I bet this is Mitchell's backfield when he comes back.
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Nah. I bet it's a split backfield, with both Sermon and Mitchell contributing as solid RB#2. Mitchell is faster than Sermon, but Sermon is a better runner. Any Mitchell or Sermon owner hoping their guy get the majority of touches is engaging in wishful thinking. 

 
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