facook
Footballguy
1.12/2.1 ish
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RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter knoblefantasy
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
I have the 1.12 and I'll pass, thanks. I'd rather have -- gasp -- a tight end there, and that's saying something.
facook
Footballguy
I don't disagree.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would say early to mid second round, but there’s always that one guy in your league who thinks the writing is on the wall for Henry and will reach for him at 1.11 or something.
Just a wild guess
dmac37
Footballguy
About what I was thinking, first half of the 2nd.
Hines Ward was missing an ACL when he entered the league.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Interesting! Did not know this. Obviously that doesn't mean "oh, fine and dandy then", but it's good to know there is a case of a successful career.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If you can miss your ACL, some players should just have theirs removed.
I also was not aware people just don't have an ACL. Is this real?
I also was not aware people just don't have an ACL. Is this real?
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Found a blurb from David Chao pro football doc on him. Sounds not good. He’s been a target of mine but may end up avoiding.
Faust
MVP
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Mid to late 2nd
Again, Titans coaches point out he has very different skill set to Henry as a reply to asking if he's the backup.
I still think he's the third down back.
We need contact (camp) and to read he's picking up the blitz well. Without that, Haskins will beat him out or steal his snaps. Very doable, but it's a necessary next step to the summer
I still think he's the third down back.
We need contact (camp) and to read he's picking up the blitz well. Without that, Haskins will beat him out or steal his snaps. Very doable, but it's a necessary next step to the summer
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If those three things aren't red flags, then there are no red flags.
Boston
Footballguy
While they are definitely not a non-issue I would be far more concerned if the Titans did not use a third-round pick (81st overall) on him and he slid to the 5th-7th round area...also for me I don't look at RBs in more than 2–3-year windows (and move on from them very quickly) because I don't trust them so I don't have the same concerns a Dynasty Owner who may look at RBs differently may have.
I don't view those as 3 things, I view it as one, a knee. It all works together, when you don't have an ACL it leads to arthritis. And none of those issues are impacting or are excuses for his performance, that would be a major issue for me but it's not that, it's just led to speculation on how long before it does impact him. It's possible it ends up being an almost non-factor, Hines Ward entered league with the same issue. Saying that I'm working with the premise it likely does impact him in a few years and this may sound crazy,but I mean it and I've told friends this a few weeks ago, that it makes me actually higher on him. Hear me out.
Let me start with premise I knew for months he had two ACL's injuries so I already knew he had knee concerns, I just did not know he was missing the ACL. Key is I'm starting from a position of knowing he has an issue with his knee.
The Titans obviously have his full medical records and still used relatively high draft capital relative to the position. Just looking at the position they could have picked Achane, Bigsby, Johnson, etc,etc. That means a lot more to me people without his medical records speculating on the condition of his knee. But let's assume the Titans believe the knee makes him a one contract player. This is where I get to the point of why it makes me higher on him knowing this info/relative to the draft capital and who they could have chose instead. Because if they view him as a one contract player or someone whose knee could give them issues in a few years and they still chose him that high it likely means they have plans for a fairly significant and immediate role for him.
That is obviously self-explanatory for why I think he's become a great value in redraft. He's not a threat to Henry of course but the King is a 29 year old hard used RB and the options in the passing game are by and large weak. This is all adding up to a year one role I think is bigger then people are anticipating and he's getting drafted well into the area that several handcuffs are long drafted. My belief is he offers handcuff plus flex type appeal which makes him a value, a strong one.
Now for dynasty. You got all the stuff with Henry being in the last year of his contract and an in-season trade candidates if the teams starts poorly. Stuff everyone knows which could clear a path for Spears in 2024 to take on a much bigger role, if not sooner with a Henry injury or trade. But again, this is stuff everyone knows. I'm just trying to say the Titans would not have drafted Spears this high over those RB's if they did not have plans and see a fairly immediate role for him.
Lastly if Spears takes on this larger role in next year or two and looks good doing it most people won't remember any these concerns. I've experienced this before in similar situations. If anyone owning him in dynasty has concerns about his longevity I think the odds are quite high you can move him at a return well over what you paid, for sure over where he's currently going in rookie drafts.
ETA-I forgot to add for dynasty purposes he's a RB. It's not like drafting a WR you hope you can be a 7-10 year guy. Even using top draft capital like I Bijan I would only expect 5-6 years if things went well. We see Rb's fantasy value get crushed in draft and FA every year. I just would not spend to much energy forecasting if his knee is good in 3-4 years as I do in if he can get on the field, have a role and look good doing it.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
What's the sample size on RB's with arthritis, no acl, no cartilage?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Probably low because not too many RBs have that problem. Todd Gurley comes to mind. He was done after his injuries. Not sure about missing all of that, but he had bad arthritis in his knee.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah, I do remember arthritis being Gurley's downfall. I was being half-facetious, since there can't me many, if any, who had all three of those issues. While I do agree it is a major red flag ... he would surely have been drafted much higher and would be my overall #3 or #4 rookie if not for the red flag. So even with the big risk, he's still my RB6-8.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Right, even if it's just a couple of boom years before his body breaks down given his current rate that'd still net +ROI. Just look at similarly priced rb's from 2019 and 2020 classes.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I got him at 2.11 in our rookie draft. If I even get one flex worthy year out of him before I cut bait in 2026ish then it was a great pick.
heckmanm
Footballguy
Yeah 3.02 here
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Can't go wrong with that, good job, even if I believe he will have to play on one leg eventually.
Took T Bigsby with my only pick in those rounds.
Zow
Footballguy
2.9 in my non ppr superflex rookie draft. This is a league where rbs are a premium so loved the value. I get the knee issues but at 2.9 it’s worth it even if he has one good year or two plug in play value years.
If you do not have an ACL your joint is unstable. You cannot shift weight, juke etc on an unstable joint. I read some non sense that if the knee was arthritic then it could explain how his knee is stable. If your joint is that arthritic yor are not playing football. There are some surgical procedures that can be done to stabilize the knee without a graft. It is a possibility but my suspicion is he had grafts done both times. People who say he did not are speculating and have no more knowledge of the situation than anyone else on this board. I see running backs as 3-4 year propositions anyway. Players like Henry are the exception and not the rule. I picked Spears without much concern. After passing on Gore, I am done pretending that I can forecast player's career.
dipandglide
Footballguy
The cost is what you have to weigh. Spears is going in the mid-late 2nd in my superflex drafts. If he doesn't pan out or gets injured, so what. It didn't cost you much.
During each spring, like many teams, they line their RBs out at WR a little bit. He did well.
He's getting a lot of love right now but it's still as a third down back.
Haskins (who has nice hands) is still widely presumed to be the Henry sub.
Asking reporters if Spears looks better than Haskins gets "different type of player, one is all wiggle, one can move a pile."
And....like I predicted, the run of minicamp came from Julius Chestnut yesterday. The small school monkey wrench that made it last year and played above Haskins til late in the year.
Chestnut is a smart back. It's not hard to notice they trust him.
Spears and Haskins have to pickup the blitz well, hit the right hole, and run the right routes etc to knock Chestnut off the mountain. And probably special teams too.
I doubt highly doubt Chestnut makes it but it would not surprise me if either of them gets coaching quotes all summer like "still learning" or "need some development" and they keep Chestnut over one of them.
Nah, waiting for camp.
Waiting to see him take some hits and play against some other defenses and all that type thinking.
I'm sure a lot of people are mildly curious if he grabs his knee or limps or whatever too
eighsse2
Footballguy
(RB crazy dynasty league)
I have him #7 (all my first 7 are RB) on my rookie draft board. Potential of a very good running back is too much to pass up, even with huge risk. Not that that answers your question -- haven't heard anything on him lately.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I know you always say your league is “RB crazy” but why do you need to join in the crazy?
If your league went 6 RBs to start the draft, why not take JSN or Addison instead of some scrub backup RB? Unless you also have crazy RB scoring rules that give them huge advantages, it doesn’t make sense.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Well I do have JSN as my #9 overall, and I have the #8 and #9, so I will take him if he's there. It's not exactly crazy RB scoring, but the lineup (QRRWWF KD) does make RB a good bit more valuable relative to WR versus a lot of leagues that have 3 WR and/or multiple flex.
However, I did, start a thread (somewhere
) asking what exactly I should do in such a league. Generally my idea now is to go for either elite picks for an elite RB (top 3 or whatever the case may be), or late second rounders, and then I can either take great value WR or very deep RB with those picks. But currently I am sitting with those middle ground #8 and #9 picks too.Mainly, I don't want to take any receiver with any pick above ~10 simply because I know some of the top ones will be there at ~20.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Okay I thought I posted a thread, but more like I kind of hijacked another thread with my own, but relevant, situation. https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/early-1-qb-draft-thoughts.808402/post-24503981
metoo
Footballguy
I took him at 2.3.
RBs are not valued might as well.
