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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
Yes. I think some Dems want another round of checks in CARES 2, but since Congress has stalled out on the intermediate bill between CARES 1 and CARES 2, I’m not expecting that second round of checks to be coming anytime soon.
I was surprised they were able to get the first round passed, tbh.
The General
Footballguy
Who the #### knows. My son has had his unemployment application hung up being reviewed for three weeks nowWho the #### knows. My son has had his unemployment application hung up being reviewed for three weeks now
The new one was. I’m wondering how he got that bluebird in only once.This wasn't important enough to say twice?
That explains you a L going from 18 to 30That explains you a L going from 18 to 30
Nice. My wife and I both work with 3 kids so we won’t get any the first time or the second.
There are reports that the peak cases in the US may happen this weekend. That’s pretty great news if true. Most states will not face any major shortages in beds or ICU beds. NY is the obvious outlier here.
caustic
Footballguy
It’s a total cluster####. One of the reasons Congress chose to add a flat $600/week to unemployment benefits is that our UI system is so decrepit that they didn’t have the administrative capacity to try and do 100% wage replacement for everyone.
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Insoxicated
Warrior
Footballguy
Is it that difficult to understand that the market was oversold and worse news was priced in than ended up being the reality? Every 3rd post in here seems to be having a very difficult time understanding the basics of how the market works.
Warrior
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well do you think the market is acting rationally now? Are you a buyer at these levels?
I fully understand things are better than feared but nobody even knew how to price that fear in.
I have few expenses besides the mortgage, so I’m sitting at home breaking even at worse. Will probably end up making a little.
Capella
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Make no mistake, it wasn't that the reality is better (really, it's not). We have no vaccines, no good therapeutics, people are getting reinfected so not developing immunity. The economy is at a standstill and some parts will start locking up soon. It's still a completely horror show out there.
It's the unlimited Fed put in play. That's it. Without it we'd be south of 50% off the highs (IMO). With it, who knows. Completely unprecedented.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
I'm not necessarily angry with how the market is acting. It is why. Sure, it went against my book but it is what the Fed is doing that is absolutely disgusting. Guess I should have known better and realized the Fed would bail out corporations who over-levered but it's crony capitalism and eventually the rooster will come home to roost. And honestly, billionaires who don't speak out against it are likely using the gains to get on a spaceship because it will just increase income inequality and push us further down the populist/socialist route.
CNBC put Chamath's whole interview behind a paywall despite Wapner obviously being angry about what he said. I'll try to pull the transcript. While I disagree with how callous he talked about letting airlines go bankrupt, he does bring up the good point that bankruptcy does not equal liquidation. Yes, it isn't fair to anyone here but why are we worried about making corporations, PE and CLOs whole more than a worker? You lent 6x EBITDA to an 8x company, you should bear those risks, not get bailed out.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html?__source=twitter|main
CNBC put Chamath's whole interview behind a paywall despite Wapner obviously being angry about what he said. I'll try to pull the transcript. While I disagree with how callous he talked about letting airlines go bankrupt, he does bring up the good point that bankruptcy does not equal liquidation. Yes, it isn't fair to anyone here but why are we worried about making corporations, PE and CLOs whole more than a worker? You lent 6x EBITDA to an 8x company, you should bear those risks, not get bailed out.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html?__source=twitter|main
1 time for now. People should start receiving them now. I checked our account and it's not there yet.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I can't believe so many of you chickened out on BLMN. We all jumped on this thing talking about it being a potential 5 bagger and you all get cold nips at 0.5x? That would be like Chet jumping out of CYDY when it hit 0.45.
I will think about you guys when I'm bathing in unlimited bloomin' onion sauce in 2022.
I will think about you guys when I'm bathing in unlimited bloomin' onion sauce in 2022.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
So, if a novice wants to get their feet wet investing in the market with some cheap stocks but doesn't want to start out with a huge deposit and get killed with fees, what do you recommend?
Buy an index fund, leave investing to the professionals, and play fantasy football for your gambling fix.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Don’t listen to that guy, gambling on stocks is awesome. TD Ameritrade and Fidelity have no minimum deposits and trades are free with few exceptions. You might need 2 grand or so to dabble in options and there’s very small fees to trade those. It’s a great time to be alive.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
@Courtjester Best to deposit at least $3000 so you can join the "added 1000 CYDY today" club.
What @McBokonon said.
What @McBokonon said.
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The General
Footballguy
I can't fit any more 100's in my pockets from feasting on BLMN (well maybe they are 20's and 5' but still)...Will jump back in after the next dip!
Don Hutson
Footballguy
It wasn't a good stock before Coronavirus. It fluctuated between 15 and 25 for the last 6 years. It became a savvy investment when it bottomed out. The Coronavirus will have both an immediate and a lasting impact. $9.12 a share isn't much of a drop from it's previous high. Restaurant business will not completely rebound until there is a vaccine. It could drop to $7 per share next week and it wouldn't be at all surprising. And it isn't going up much from here.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
out, I traded for cydy. 
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
I think most of us are expecting it to drop back down to 6.40 or below and then buying back in
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'll pour out a Foster's for you guys if the analysts/consensus end up being wrong for the 658th time in a row during this ordeal and the drop never comes or comes so late that the price still ends up being higher by then anyway.I think most of us are expecting it to drop back down to 6.40 or below and then buying back in
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Can BLMN even go higher? It's been oscillating around $20 for the last 6 years, precoronavirus. It is at $9.12. The losses from Coronavirus are massive and continuing for the restaurant sector. The fact that it has retained half of it's previous value is impressive. It will not rise much from here and it is ten times more likely to drop than to rise next week.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm just not sure any of that matters right now. Every bit of intangible good news makes any stock moon, even if the news is already expected and priced in. Meanwhile horrible actual tangible financials are largely ignored because everyone knows they are going to be bad.
Look at Disney yesterday. No movies are being made or released, all of their parks are closed, merchandise sales are likely massively down. But hey, Disney+ subs are up (duh)! Stock goes up 9% immediately on the news back to 84% of the price I bought it at 2 months ago when the parks were overflowing with people and they were dropping a new box office boom every few months. Their revenue can't be 15% of what it was then yet the stock is still worth 84% as much.
Wynn is at like 65% of where it was 6 weeks ago and they have 0% of the revenue.
BLMN is still only worth 39% as much as it was at that same time. For all I know BLMN could drop a statement that take out orders are up 300% (again, duh) and the stock could moon again even though the whole rest of the restaurant is shut down.
Everyone already knows the Q1 and Q2 earnings are going to suck for any company in the hospitality/travel industry. Those stocks are only going to tank again if the whole market tanks again, which I'm becoming less and less confident in every day.
Heck Starbucks just released that awful report last night including that they expect revenues to be way down even through Q3 and Q4 (!!) and their stock was up 3.2% today.
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caustic
Footballguy
I’ll think about you when I’m bathing too, GB.
Er, hopefully we’re right about the dip! ETA: If this was April 2021 and BLMN had been steadily grinding to +60% I’d still be in. But such gains in two weeks, I’m comfortable locking those in.
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eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Have been too busy at work to even monitor CYDY - looks like we are still weighting for the next leg up.
Speaking of next leg up, it's tanker time!
Speaking of next leg up, it's tanker time!
Todem
Footballguy
When the shorts stop covering.....and start shorting again....let's talk. There is massive shorting going on and I can tell you.....the market is not going in a straight line up again.
We will see pull backs and dips again.
The market is like a great roller coaster......you have that long...slow climb up to the top of that awesome first drop. We had that drop back on 3/16-3/23. Then the twist and turns heading to the next climb up for that second drop....which is never as awesome as the first one....but steep enough to give you that same feeling......yeah we are teetering on the second drop soon......that will be everyone's last chance who chickened out on that first drop to get back in....and for those like yours truly who are mostly in but still have some juice left to play with...to get one more shot at making some great buys......then the twists and turns and the jerking up and down....that will be the sideways market we are about to enter until we have a lot more clarity on 2021.....and I am very optimistic about that next roller coaster in 2021. We will be all good.
BLMN? Heck....I was pimping that as a great trade waiting to happen....was looking at 100%...but you know what...when I see 65% in less than two weeks....I take my money...pat myself on the back....and look for another.....and in fact...BLMN can be that again because it should pull back.
Chicken out? Naaaaa I never met anyone who was poor for taking big profits.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
So get in those when they are about to moon. And exit after they have mooned. Rinse and repeat. There is more money to be made in a Bear Market in the volatility than in a Bull Market. BLMN shot the moon today. Today was the day to exit.
adonis
Footballguy
Would love to hear why you think the bolded.
I see a ton of folks jumping at the hope that we may be on the road to recovery here, but I see little fundamental info that this is the case. People not wanting to miss out on a rebound, but a case for restoring the economy to previous form has not been made yet, to my knowledge. We still seem years out...yet tons of folks are starving for good news where things get back to normal that at every turn of not terrible news there's a rebound.
But what's the underlying situation that has changed? Where's the national plan to move us forward in a time of great health uncertainty?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
12 days ago 99% of analysts were 99% sure it was just a rally that was obviously going back down to re-test the lows. Then a few days later 80% of analysts were pretty sure it was going back down but maybe not quite to the lows. Now 50% of analysts think there's some chance we're going back down but most likely not near the lows.
Every study, predictor, and metric has been wrong so far. At some point maybe the whole hypothesis is just wrong. Every resistance band that was going to stop the rally in its tracks has fallen and people just come up with a new double shooting star reversal pattern to the charts that is surely going to make the difference this time. But ultimately at this point all we are left with is trying to compare it to previous crashes with a sample size of FOUR, all of which happened under completely different circumstances and which already differ from this one in very large ways.
So you ask what in the underlying situation that has changed? The situation that has changed is that when everyone panic sold everything they had no idea what was going to happen and thought we might be looking at something that was going to fundamentally change the way the country worked and throw us into an apocalypse movie. Realistically now most people expect that by far the most likely scenario is that we just might have to wait a little longer than we'd like to get back to normal, but we will be getting back to normal.
Any good news is met with massive rally and bad news is largely ignored by the market. Trump went on TV and said we want to start opening by Easter and the market mooned like never before, then he went back on TV and said whoops lol that's not happening and just for kicks here is Dr. Fauci to tell you all that 100,000 Americans are going to die MINIMUM and the market was up 3% on the day. When April 30th comes and we're not getting back to normal no one will care because everyone knows that's not really happening anyway.
Q1 and Q2 earnings are likely completely irrelevant at this point. Priced in doesn't even begin to cover it. So we're looking at Q3 before companies could even begin to be punished for underperforming and again I am dubious people will even care then, as Starbucks just said they expected to be reporting disappointing numbers in Q3 and even Q4 and their stock was up 3.2% on the day.
The market is forward thinking. Any time every analyst and every FBG poster is all saying the same thing (like restaurants aren't just going to start operating at full capacity right away) it's something the market already knows. That's why it fell so hard and so fast in the first place. I'm a vendor at art festivals and every one of them that I was registered to do this year is already canceled through August. People already know we're not going back to normal any time soon.
Look I'm certainly not saying the down ain't coming and guys like Todem obviously know 1000x more about this than me so I would certainly trust what he says over my barely coherent rambling here. I just think the chances at this point are more like a 50/50 toss-up than the "oh it's for sure coming down it's just a matter of whether it's tomorrow or the day after". Those tomorrow's and day after's have already passed 5 times by now. This is just such uncharted territory and so fundamentally different than anything we've seen before. Does the market care about financials when they know those financials are only temporary and the result of outside forces rather than something fundamentally wrong with the companies? Lately it certainly hasn't.
