Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

Probably the same reason I would never short GME or DJT - we can realize something is overvalued and the price is detached from reality, but also know that the support for a stock is not based on fundamentals in any way, shape, or form and it's best to steer clear.

Right, irrationality. TSLA stock action is irrational. Has been for years. And yet.....you'd be broke of you tried to fight it.

Saying it's a $20 dollar stock because the margins are razor thin isn't going to compel the bulls to sell it and the bears are too afraid to short it.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

 

[General Malaise]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

At least Elon isn't distracted or anything.

 

[General Malaise]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

It's not a car company. That's where you're getting tripped up. You're applying old school valuations for a VERY mature industry (autos) to a company that is not a car company. Least, not in the eyes of the global market place.

Again, you are using rational metrics and trying to apply it to an irrational stock. That's how investors go to their grave.

Personally speaking, I'd never even consider a Tesla car. I think they are neat computers with crap architecture around them. The exterior features feel like they were built by Chuck E Cheese toy manufacturers. I'll never own one.

But they are not a car company.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

It's not a car company. That's where you're getting tripped up. You're applying old school valuations for a VERY mature industry (autos) to a company that is not a car company. Least, not in the eyes of the global market place.

Again, you are using rational metrics and trying to apply it to an irrational stock. That's how investors go to their grave.

Personally speaking, I'd never even consider a Tesla car. I think they are neat computers with crap architecture around them. The exterior features feel like they were built by Chuck E Cheese toy manufacturers. I'll never own one.

But they are not a car company.

For not a car company it is funny that the majority of their revenue comes from, checks notes, selling cars.

 

[General Malaise]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

At least Elon isn't distracted or anything.

He does more drugs on a daily basis than I do in a year and I like to dabble. His ketamine addiction is going to kill him.

 

[General Malaise]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.

It's not a car company. That's where you're getting tripped up. You're applying old school valuations for a VERY mature industry (autos) to a company that is not a car company. Least, not in the eyes of the global market place.

Again, you are using rational metrics and trying to apply it to an irrational stock. That's how investors go to their grave.

Personally speaking, I'd never even consider a Tesla car. I think they are neat computers with crap architecture around them. The exterior features feel like they were built by Chuck E Cheese toy manufacturers. I'll never own one.

But they are not a car company.

For not a car company it is funny that the majority of their revenue comes from, checks notes, selling cars.

How much of Ford's revenue comes from not selling cars?

 

[General Malaise]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

 

[MTskibum]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi(behind waymo).

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

 

[Sand]

How are they a tech company?

Because they say they are and the market agrees (at least up through now).

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I used to assume that was a $cupper alias. Clearly not.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

 

[General Malaise]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

 

[MTskibum]

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

They have 1/3 cash on hand of toyota, less than ford, etc, still enough to make it awhile.

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

Do i have news for you. In both automotive and boating industry autopilot has been around for a while, i think this is far from a novelty concept. How many old people and texter/drivers can we from being behind the wheel to make it safer for the rest of us.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

They did have a huge advantage in battery technology 10 years ago when no other car companies were competing with it, however the only advantage they have in these markets is being one of the first to the game and given how other companies have closed the gap just based on how much R&D money other companies have on Tesla right now, for example Toyota is spending twice what Tesla spends in R&D, you have to worry about Tesla falling behind.

As for companies that sell residential solar panels, those typically don't get "tech market" valuations. If the company is relying on solar panels 10 years from now they are in trouble.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

 

[MTskibum]

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Best in class by far.

 

[Jobber]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi(behind waymo).

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

I really believe the Chinese car companies are going to eat Tesla’s lunch. This will be sped up significantly if the tarriffs go into effect. The EU may be a little less open to holding off Chinese auto if the US, an economic ally, slaps tarriffs upon them for whatever reason. Add Canada to that statement above as well.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Mexico supplies 90% of the avocados that get eaten in the US. You think taking 90% of the inventory out of the market isn't going to raise the price of what's left? Let alone other policies that may impact the supply and price of California avocados.

 

[BassNBrew]

I've also seen Tesla car owners express romantic love for their vehicles in a way other car owners have never expressed.

Talk to Rivian owners...still wouldn't buy the stock for long term.

 

[BassNBrew]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Yup...they are now a gas company. They have a best in class infrastructure that no one will touch for a decade. The will get paid by the gov't to expand it. The are taking 10 to 15 cent per kilowatt electrons and selling them for 50 cents.

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...just researched oil imports/exports.

Exports from the United States to Canada 2022

Refined petroleum
In 2022, the United States exported $15.7 billion worth of refined petroleum to Canada

In 2022, the United States imported $15.5 billion in refined petroleum from Canada. This was about 52% of the total petroleum imported by the US that year.

Tariffs may actually help both countries if they stop sending oil back and forth to each other.

 

[BassNBrew]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If interest rates were where thy were I would be buying an house and furnishing it rather than squirreling away all I can.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

LOL...just researched oil imports/exports.

Exports from the United States to Canada 2022

Refined petroleum
In 2022, the United States exported $15.7 billion worth of refined petroleum to Canada

In 2022, the United States imported $15.5 billion in refined petroleum from Canada. This was about 52% of the total petroleum imported by the US that year.

Tariffs may actually help both countries if they stop sending oil back and forth to each other.

Different kinds of oil iirc

 

[Bob Sacamano]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Yup...they are now a gas company. They have a best in class infrastructure that no one will touch for a decade. The will get paid by the gov't to expand it. The are taking 10 to 15 cent per kilowatt electrons and selling them for 50 cents.

Like most EV owners, I do almost all of my charging from home. But every time I plug into a Supercharger and charge for free, there's a little corner of my heart that gets a semi-.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Yup...they are now a gas company. They have a best in class infrastructure that no one will touch for a decade. The will get paid by the gov't to expand it. The are taking 10 to 15 cent per kilowatt electrons and selling them for 50 cents.

Contrarian view:

Basically this is saying Tesla’s competitive advantage is having a great network of modern gas stations. And traditionally gas stations have had crap profit margins on the gas they sell.

I’m comfortable with the assumption that competition will whittle away at these fat charging station profit margins.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi(behind waymo).

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

I really believe the Chinese car companies are going to eat Tesla’s lunch. This will be sped up significantly if the tarriffs go into effect. The EU may be a little less open to holding off Chinese auto if the US, an economic ally, slaps tarriffs upon them for whatever reason. Add Canada to that statement above as well.

I’ll never buy a Chinese car. Ever. And if I feel that way (as someone who rarely buys “American” cars, gotta believe there are way more people who feel similarly about buying a Chinese car

 

[Buckna]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If interest rates were where thy were I would be buying an house and furnishing it rather than squirreling away all I can.

Yeah, massive amounts of pent up demand and capital on the sidelines right now. If rates ever do creep back down even a few percentage points the housing market would explode again. If people think affordability is a problem now, boy watch out…

 

[McBokonon]

I NVDA

Top

 

[Runkle]

Just on a tangent, but IIRC some years back, one of the major car companies was selling the cars at a net loss. They made their money on the financing terms. In effect they were a bank with autos as a loss leader, the modern day toaster given away when opening an account.

 

[stbugs]

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

How long will that matter? If battery life doubles to close to 1k miles and EV sales continue for competitors, will you ever need their high speed chargers or do you just charge at home or at your parents’ when you go to visit.

 

[Schmeabs]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

I too think we will continue to see a decrease in inflation despite the new tariffs. Housing makes up a big part of CPI and I think we will continue to see those numbers decline which will give the Fed the fuel to perhaps lower rates mid year.

 

[Capella]

I feel like all this tariff crap is going to sink us bad Monday.

 

[BassNBrew]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Yup...they are now a gas company. They have a best in class infrastructure that no one will touch for a decade. The will get paid by the gov't to expand it. The are taking 10 to 15 cent per kilowatt electrons and selling them for 50 cents.

Contrarian view:

Basically this is saying Tesla’s competitive advantage is having a great network of modern gas stations. And traditionally gas stations have had crap profit margins on the gas they sell.

I’m comfortable with the assumption that competition will whittle away at these fat charging station profit margins.

Competition is horrible. Hit or miss if it's operational and more expensive. 3 or the 4 level two's in my town have been down for six months. Why build it if your just going to let it sit broken. A gas station would never leave 75% of it's pumps down for 6 months.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

TSLA is a tech company. A tech company that happens to sell cars.

I think people are going to realize that for a tech company everything Tesla has is either behind the times or out of date.

They are quickly falling behind in full self driving, they are years behind their competitor for their next major car, the robotaxi.

Their cars are out of date.

How are they a tech company?

1) they have more money than the next 10 competitors combined. Right? I'm speaking off the cuff and not researching this but they are loaded with cash, no?

2) self driving is a novelty concept - I want no part and don't blame TSLA for falling behind here. You want self flying planes? Neither do I.

3) Battery storage and solar shingles are just two examples I can think of that would put them in a different category than a "car maker". Their cars get diagnosed through software too, is that not tech enough for you? Never had my ICE car company come to office and fix my car issue with a computer. When my ICE car has an issue I have to take it to a mechanic. TSLA owners can get their issues addressed at their leisure by a tech who uses an IPad or whatever to diagnose and fix the problem.

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

Yup...they are now a gas company. They have a best in class infrastructure that no one will touch for a decade. The will get paid by the gov't to expand it. The are taking 10 to 15 cent per kilowatt electrons and selling them for 50 cents.

Contrarian view:

Basically this is saying Tesla’s competitive advantage is having a great network of modern gas stations. And traditionally gas stations have had crap profit margins on the gas they sell.

I’m comfortable with the assumption that competition will whittle away at these fat charging station profit margins.

Competition is horrible. Hit or miss if it's operational and more expensive. 3 or the 4 level two's in my town have been down for six months. Why build it if your just going to let it sit broken. A gas station would never leave 75% of it's pumps down for 6 months.

That is helpful context. I’m not an EV guy yet, so I trust your instincts more than my own.

Flip side, the world isn’t static. And typically most industries with fat margins attract competition……

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

How long will that matter? If battery life doubles to close to 1k miles and EV sales continue for competitors, will you ever need their high speed chargers or do you just charge at home or at your parents’ when you go to visit.

Exactly. This is why I say “the world isn’t static.” A combo of competition and innovation tends to erode fat margins — and it happens way faster in 2025 than it did 30-50 years ago.

 

[BassNBrew]

Their primary advantage is their charging infrastructure

How long will that matter? If battery life doubles to close to 1k miles and EV sales continue for competitors, will you ever need their high speed chargers or do you just charge at home or at your parents’ when you go to visit.

Personally I don't think you'll see battery life doubling in cars. Sweet spot is 300-400 miles. Much beyond that becomes a waste. Modern cars aren't equiped with 50 gallon gas tanks. If battery advances double, then you'll see smaller batteries and cheaper vehicles. Not sure we are at in the life cycle, but our 9v and AA lithium batteries aren't that much better than 10 years ago. They also have been increasing in cost over time.

I think the focus will be on charging speed which is limit by the vehicle now.

 

[SFBayDuck]

How are they a tech company?

Because they say they are and the market agrees (at least up through now).

This. They barely talked about car sales in the earnings call. It was all about AI, autonomous tech, humanoid robots, and batteries. A couple of Elon quotes:

So, yes. And my prediction, long term, is that Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company.

So, in conclusion, 2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla. And when we look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, true real-world AI that actually works, I think we may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history, maybe even bigger than Atlas car, or the Model S or the Model 3 or Model Y. In fact, I think it probably will be viewed '25 as maybe the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla.

 

[fruity pebbles]

How are they a tech company?

Because they say they are and the market agrees (at least up through now).

This. They barely talked about car sales in the earnings call. It was all about AI, autonomous tech, humanoid robots, and batteries. A couple of Elon quotes:

So, yes. And my prediction, long term, is that Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company.

So, in conclusion, 2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla. And when we look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, true real-world AI that actually works, I think we may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history, maybe even bigger than Atlas car, or the Model S or the Model 3 or Model Y. In fact, I think it probably will be viewed '25 as maybe the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla.

If he talked about the car sales, the stock would have tanked because they were honestly pretty terrible.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Mexico supplies 90% of the avocados that get eaten in the US. You think taking 90% of the inventory out of the market isn't going to raise the price of what's left? Let alone other policies that may impact the supply and price of California avocados.

-QG

 

[Desert_Power]

I feel like all this tariff crap is going to sink us bad Monday.

We do seem hellbent on relearning some expensive economic lessons.

 

[The Duff Man]

Inflation will be a problem.

The washing machine story

Prices only fell when the tariff was lifted. In the meantime, consumers paid a lot more.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

I too think we will continue to see a decrease in inflation despite the new tariffs. Housing makes up a big part of CPI and I think we will continue to see those numbers decline which will give the Fed the fuel to perhaps lower rates mid year.

What's going to drive declines in housing?

 

[Orange&Blue]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

I too think we will continue to see a decrease in inflation despite the new tariffs. Housing makes up a big part of CPI and I think we will continue to see those numbers decline which will give the Fed the fuel to perhaps lower rates mid year.

What's going to drive declines in housing?

it won't be new building with ICE kicking out illegals.

 

[djmich]

Looking like the tariff weakness likely to carry over to Monday. Will be an interesting futures open tomorrow

 

[The Duff Man]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

I too think we will continue to see a decrease in inflation despite the new tariffs. Housing makes up a big part of CPI and I think we will continue to see those numbers decline which will give the Fed the fuel to perhaps lower rates mid year.

What's going to drive declines in housing?

it won't be new building with ICE kicking out illegals.

Softwood Lumber prices are also going to increase which will raise the cost of building a home.

US domestic production currently cannot supply the full demand the country needs.

And we also know based on the last tariff that domestic sources will also be increasing their price as the Cdn competitors are now at a 25% increase.

 

[Schmeabs]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

We rely on the kindness of strangers for the vast majority of our raw goods to keep the economy humming. It ain't all about oil. The phones and computers we use to fart around in here are built with raw materials this country cannot and will not produce in meaningful quantities in our lifetime nor the lifetime of our kids nor their kids.

If we elected a guy on the basis that he would eradicate inflation and then realized that everything we buy is now 25% more expensive (as a floor) how do you envision that going? Forget eggs, which nobody needs to survive. I'm talking essentials like power (nuclear), medical (MRIs for helium) and, oh yeah......DEFENSE. Ammunition, night vision, aerospace, SPACE FORCE.....none of the raw materials needed here come from here. Do you REALLY think this guy is going to actively weaken our military when push comes to shove? I don't.

This may be an unpopular opinion but I don't think tariffs will have a noticeable affect on inflation. I also don't think Biden had any affect on inflation. I don't think any of it did. We've been implementing one inflationary policy after another for 17 years and actually ran UNDER our inflation targets for the majority of that, unable to raise it enough.

The ONLY thing that made inflation budge, and then blow up, was supply chain disruption. It's my theory that 100% of the inflation issues we've had were due to supply chain disruption. It's also my theory that 100% of the decrease we've had in inflation rate back to normal since then is a result of supply chain disruptions being further and further resolved.

I don't think even interest rates had any affect at all. If the fed had left rates where they were in 2021 I think inflation would still be right back where it is right now. Again, we ran at near zero rates for 10 years and inflation was commonly BELOW targets. It just doesn't matter against the behemoth of supply chain disruption. Everything else is so small that it is negligible by comparison. That is the only thing that matters.

We're seeing the same thing with eggs right now. Prices have ballooned due to supply disruption from the bird flu. We could put 100% tariffs on stuff and it wouldn't raise prices even close to as much as this short supply disruption has.

Egg prices will eventually go back down. When the bird flu is resolved and the supply returns to normal. Not when we cut rates 7 times.

If avocados cost an importer 25% more than they did yesterday, you think that importer is going to eat the entire 25% and not pass any of the additional cost along to consumers?

Sorry, to be clear I was talking about overall inflation, CPI numbers (that drive the stock market these days), etc.

But to answer more directly, inflation like that is much greater when the price of everything goes up, so the market doesn't balance out price increases and who will pay them between the supplier or the buyer.

If Avocado supply costs go up 25% but the price of orange supply does not, there will be a price where avocados get expensive enough that people just decide to eat oranges instead, and the avocado supplier's only option is to eat some or all of that cost increase. They may only be able to pass it on to the consumer if the price of everything else went up too, like with a global supply disruption that affects everything.

Or even more specific to avocados, if <jingle>avocados from Mexico</jingle> are 25% more expensive, grocers will just stock avocados from California whose price hasn't changed.

Longhorn Steakhouse was only able to raise prices by 80% because Olive Garden had to raise prices by 80% too. If Longhorn Steakhouse had tried to raise prices 80% and Olive Garden stayed flat, people would have just eaten more Italian food until Longhorn cut their margins and reduced their prices.

Overall though I of course agree there will be some things that are impacted by some amount. But without a global disruption of everything, overall CPI will not be affected noticeably, which is really what we're talking about here in terms of markets crashing because hyperinflation returns.

Try and pick out on this chart where Trump's tariffs from the first term were implemented. We can't, because it's not even a blip.

Even on the chart of the things the tariffs directly targeted, it's just noise.

The price of aluminum actually went DOWN for 2 years following the implementation of aluminimum tariffs. And it didn't rise until the "everything disruption" because people could no longer just buy something else if the supplier didn't eat most of that new cost.

If there is market competition and only some supplier's are seeing increased costs, they just have to play ball and cut their margins or quit. This is the same thing that has been happening in my industry the last 2 years. Our costs are way up even without any tariffs, but our prices are still down, because if we just threw our costs back into the price we would cease to exist as market competition would kill us. We would only have been able to throw those costs into the price if the entire global economy was forced to do the same thing. Otherwise we just have to eat it or die.

I too think we will continue to see a decrease in inflation despite the new tariffs. Housing makes up a big part of CPI and I think we will continue to see those numbers decline which will give the Fed the fuel to perhaps lower rates mid year.

What's going to drive declines in housing?

I am just talking about the fact that shelter makes up 33-40% of CPI and although shelter inflation has remained strong I expect it should come down as the lagged effect of slower rental increases feeds through. Powell has said that he expects shelter to contribute to disinfection in the coming months. I believe they only update rental increases/decreases twice a year so it is a lagging indicator.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Inflation will be a problem.

The washing machine story

Prices only fell when the tariff was lifted. In the meantime, consumers paid a lot more.

This is exactly what happens. When a local company finds out that their competitor has to raise their price by 25% because of Tariffs, they raise their own price by 20%. They grab a bit more of the market share, and their profits (margins) balloon. Unfortunately, these profits are slow to make their way down to the employees.

Unless you have the immediate infrastructure to replace all the imports, then it will be inflationary for all countries caught in a trade war.