Capella
Footballguy
I agree and also I feel good about them winning another one this year.
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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I honestly have no idea what happens but I do think there’s a better than even chance this pushes us into a recession.
Sand
Footballguy
As long as it isn't the Devils.
(I have a Stephan Matteau signed picture in my house. Suck it, Devils.)
Bossman
Footballguy
You missed quite a show. You probably wouldn't believe where it was at if someone told you.
Capella
Footballguy
Yes.
There will have to be some sort of ground given by both sides, probably more from
China but it’ll get done.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Yes. Even if there's just another 90 days of uncertainty, there's already been significant damage done to an already weak economy. Like you I can't predict specific outcomes but at best business decision-making will remain paralyzed and that will continue to be a drag on growth.
For example, just in the past week there have been seven IPOs canceled and no one in their right mind will know how to price one for quite some time.
already weak economy?
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah, for sure. Just didn't have the stomach for it.
I have thoughts on the whole thing but I would get banned and I get too much entertainment here.
I will say part of my reasoning for staying out of it was the relative calmness tone of a lot of people in this thread. Lots of good stuff here and I really appreciate this place.
Bossman
Footballguy
I'll take "changing my brown pants for cream color" for $200 Alex
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
The updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is -2.9% growth for Q12025.
Do you call that strong?
Politically maybe not…..market wise….flash crash on the Tarriff Tantrum.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Meanwhile your boys and girls over at UBS are forecasting <1% growth for 2025.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Best thread in the FFA
UBS nailed the 10 year lowering to below 4% prior to year end last year when you cowardly failed to give your prediction. You can take your condescending snark elsewhere
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
This sounds about right. Good, and hope the US is stronger for it.
Per the earlier post about AAPL, it overperformed VOO and QQQ:
AAPL
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think this is solid advice, but there are a lot of companies with exposure to the Chinese market or still make a lot of products with Chinese country of origin. That portion isn't over yet. Tariffs at 125% are no joke.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Too funnyWhy do you think the updated CME Fedwatch (based on analyzing actual Fed Funds futures contracts) currently has an 82% probability of a rate cut between 50-100bps by the September meeting?
Because the economy is strong?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Also, they don't have an elected government. Xi can be president as long as he wants. So China can take waaaaay more pain than the USA in the short and medium term. I don't think the US has the stomach for that level of pain.
McBokonon
Footballguy
You two mind taking this to PM's?
Why do you think the updated CME Fedwatch (based on analyzing actual Fed Funds futures contracts) currently has an 82% probability of a rate cut between 50-100bps by the September meeting?
Because the economy is strong?
Stoneworker
Footballguy
It's quite relevant to stocks whether the economy is weak or strong. I've provided plenty of real-time evidence that market participants and forecasters believe the former.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I feel like this sharp downturn was a great test of people’s portfolios. Gave everyone a good perspective on how much risk you’re taking and how diversified you really are.
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I never said strong did I? You said it was already weak. I have stated here many times this year I expect 1 or 2 cuts 2nd half of this year. Good chance for more due to recent events.
Why do you think the updated CME Fedwatch (based on analyzing actual Fed Funds futures contracts) currently has an 82% probability of a rate cut between 50-100bps by the September meeting?
Because the economy is strong?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Todem- what are your thoughts on small caps, particularly small cap value. Has gotten absolutely annihilated but has underperformed for a long time now.
Bossman
Footballguy
anyone else been here long enough to remember when fruity pebbles avatar use to move?
When I look at it, I still see it moving in my mind.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Yup
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
youtu.be
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The algos giveth, but the algos also taketh away...
I think there was a +15% day (or thereabouts) as the country emerged from the Great Depression. Don't know my history well enough to tell you what the catalyst was.
Three months. The fill-in-the-blank was three. And the effect (even with excluding China) was +9%. Next time around, we'll do a pool.
A lot has happened in four days.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Coulda used another 10% to get back to where we were though........
Hey what is the Spaxx in our fidelity accounts paying these days.
Historically speaking small caps outperform all other indexs the last 100 years if I am not mistaken.
My thoughts are it still should be part of your overall asset allocation on both the growth and value side.
I use the invesco small cap value and that has actually been a great fund. I just fired Gabelli Small Growth and hired the Neuberger Genesis Fund for small cap growth.
I think small caps (The Russell 2000) will have their day again as deregulation becomes a reality.
In my overall allocation it makes up anywhere from a 5-10% weighting split down the middle between small cap growth and small cap value
eighsse2
Footballguy
2nd highest percentage daily gain in history of the NASDAQ. The DJIA and S&P500 were 19th and 9th highest, respectively.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Has to be given the forces at play. Emotion is a hell of a thing.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Likely not happening with the haphazard tariffs still in place and in reased on China. Don't be greedy.
Absolutely. People helping people prosper is the definition of brotherhood.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
WELCOME TO THE SHOCK MARKET, with your host, Gene Rayburn…
eighsse2
Footballguy
Possibly best game show host ever. Possibly second to Richard Dawson.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
With industries like technology and consumer discretionary driving Thursday’s market meltdown following President Donald Trump’s rollout of new tariffs, CNBC’s Jim Cramer points investors to the same sectors that rose after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
Stocks cratered on Thursday, with the Dow falling nearly 4%, the S&P 500 shedding 4.8%, the Nasdaq plunging almost 6% and the Russell 2000 losing 6.4%. Still, Cramer said, there are some companies that will do better than others in the era of Trump tariffs.
“You buy stocks that have a couple of important characteristics, encapsulated by this one sentence: You want stocks of domestic companies with pricing power and with no slackening in demand or credit risk that do well in a slowdown,” Cramer said.
Cramer highlighted companies in health-related industries such as drug distribution, insurance and pharmaceuticals. He said pharmaceuticals especially offer “slow and steady” growth that will hold up in the new market. Among the names Cramer recommended were Cardinal Health, Bristol-Myers Squibb and UnitedHealth.
Utilities, lower-priced retailers, telecommunications and consumer packaged goods will also do well in a slower economic environment, Cramer said. Some of his top picks in those sectors were Duke Energy, TJX, AT&T and Procter & Gamble.
Companies in financial technology, like Intercontinental Exchange, and real estate, like Ventas, that have little-to-no credit risk are also attractive stocks right now, Cramer added.
While many of these plays are from the post-dotcom bubble strategy, Cramer also noted companies that might specifically benefit from the Trump tariffs. Defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin could potentially see gains if countries looking to appease Trump place large orders with those businesses, Cramer said.
It hurts, Cramer said, to turn away from sectors that have soared in the current market, like tech and enterprise software. But the April 2000 playbook is back in charge, he said, and that limits the options for investors.
“I know that there’s nothing more exciting to invest in than tech, and tech will have its chance again in the future,” Cramer said. “You now know what worked back then. And I bet the same groups will work once again.”
Stocks cratered on Thursday, with the Dow falling nearly 4%, the S&P 500 shedding 4.8%, the Nasdaq plunging almost 6% and the Russell 2000 losing 6.4%. Still, Cramer said, there are some companies that will do better than others in the era of Trump tariffs.
“You buy stocks that have a couple of important characteristics, encapsulated by this one sentence: You want stocks of domestic companies with pricing power and with no slackening in demand or credit risk that do well in a slowdown,” Cramer said.
Cramer highlighted companies in health-related industries such as drug distribution, insurance and pharmaceuticals. He said pharmaceuticals especially offer “slow and steady” growth that will hold up in the new market. Among the names Cramer recommended were Cardinal Health, Bristol-Myers Squibb and UnitedHealth.
Utilities, lower-priced retailers, telecommunications and consumer packaged goods will also do well in a slower economic environment, Cramer said. Some of his top picks in those sectors were Duke Energy, TJX, AT&T and Procter & Gamble.
Companies in financial technology, like Intercontinental Exchange, and real estate, like Ventas, that have little-to-no credit risk are also attractive stocks right now, Cramer added.
While many of these plays are from the post-dotcom bubble strategy, Cramer also noted companies that might specifically benefit from the Trump tariffs. Defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin could potentially see gains if countries looking to appease Trump place large orders with those businesses, Cramer said.
It hurts, Cramer said, to turn away from sectors that have soared in the current market, like tech and enterprise software. But the April 2000 playbook is back in charge, he said, and that limits the options for investors.
“I know that there’s nothing more exciting to invest in than tech, and tech will have its chance again in the future,” Cramer said. “You now know what worked back then. And I bet the same groups will work once again.”
eighsse2
Footballguy
Interesting, and it just kind of makes sense too. You figure some if not most of the massive up or down days are major overreactions. And the overreactions obviously get corrected fairly quickly.
Wooderson
Fight The Power
Richard ”let me get a kiss” Dawson is a legend. An institution.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Good call .............
I think it was either a trial run to see what would really happen.......or people got rich with insider info knowing the fake (mistaken??) announcement
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Question. How different are SPY and VOO?
One is up a half % after hours while the other is down a half %
One is up a half % after hours while the other is down a half %
eighsse2
Footballguy
The description of VOO says it's intended to match the S&P's weight for everything. So (I know nothing, I'm just now hearing of VOO) I figure it's like random error just based on imperfect matching?
