Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

[MTskibum]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I led my first machine learning project prior to chat gtp being announced and my brother has patents on medical equipment utilising AI.

I read tons of AI articles and it has been a top interest of mine going back many years.

All of the funding is in llm's. The other stuff is already possible to do quite cheap. There is no revenue in an AI model designed to watch employee floor for unsafe practices to prevent injury. Fortune 500 companies have the resources to develop the useful stuff in house.

 

[Chemical X]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

"Influencer"


Go rot.

content creator

 

[BassNBrew]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

8.49% dividend rate is attractive for sure, but I'm not buying anything Mat Ishbia related. Dude gives me the ick.

Compared to Musk, Bezos, Zuck, Gates, Dimon?

@Chadstroma has met him and says he's a decent guy as I recall. My impression is he's trying to be a second Cuban for better or worse.

 

[jwb]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I led my first machine learning project prior to chat gtp being announced and my brother has patents on medical equipment utilising AI.

I read tons of AI articles and it has been a top interest of mine going back many years.

All of the funding is in llm's. The other stuff is already possible to do quite cheap. There is no revenue in an AI model designed to watch employee floor for unsafe practices to prevent injury. Fortune 500 companies have the resources to develop the useful stuff in house.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one - I don't want to clog the thread up with this angle (maybe the AI thread is a better place). NVDA's price in a year will tell us.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

Chemical companies are very very cyclical. A recession would crush them. I don't know specifics of LYB but did look at DOW recently and I would be surprised if they can keep their dividend where it is even if we don't get a recession. For example, last year their dividends and buybacks cost them about $2.5 billion (2.0 billion of which was the dividend). They had $1.2 billion in net income and just $2.9 billion of cash provided by operating activities flows with $2.9 billion of cap ex resulting in $(37) million of free cash flow. A $2.0 billion dollar per year dividend cost doesn't add up when you have negative free cash flow and we could be heading into a recession.

I would suggest anyone buying a company for dividend yield look at this numbers for the company they are thinking about. Just because yield is high doesn't mean the stock is a good buy and a high yield could be signs of real problems.

Thanks for the reply. I'm not surprised they are falling, just that they are moving up and down 10%+. IMO that's more of a tech reaction than cyclical.

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

For me it's the fact that they are best in class. They are still profitable in a real estate climate that is at its worst in years. The 5 cent dividend feels safe.

 

[NutterButter]

If we can just keep tomorrow's losses to what we're seeing today, then i'll be better off then i was eod tuesday and that my friends is a silver lining heading into the weekend.

 

[BassNBrew]

So yesterday was shorts being covered and people being so anxious to jump back in it looks like - but reality and the economic uncertainty is back in play after people caught their breath.
I’ve lost more than half my gains from yesterday today so far.

Not if you don't sell.

I’m pretty sure you know what I meant. Yes, it’s an unrealized loss - but my portfolio has “lost” half the gains from yesterday.

I knew what you meant. It's fun to say my account was this green today or today was a kick in the nads.

This statement isn't directed at you, just a lot of unnecessary angst in here IMO. I'm just reminding people that at the end of the day that you still own the same 10 shares or 0.0000001% of Amazon that you did at the beginning of the day.

 

[The Z Machine]

I think you're going to see a lot of companies posting good earnings this quarter and either a) pausing forward guidance or b) lowering estimates going forward.

100%. Tariffs won't flow through to P&L until Q3. You'll see some small drops in operating margin in Q2 due to imports, but if companies front loaded deliveries before tariffs hit, they could avoid a lot of this pain in Q2.

This is absolutely happening, seeing it directly in my small corner of the world. Customers rushing to place orders rather than waiting, distributors front-loading orders to avoid tariff hits. It will bump up this quarter, but it's just stealing from the future and will make the pain worse later this year.

Everyone is hoping that some sort of reasonable deal can be worked out and 100+% tariffs aren't going to continue for months or even years. That way they can front load below, slow down imports in May, June, etc, and hope to increase back up in Q3.

Not sure it'll work out like that... but we can hope.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

If we can just keep tomorrow's losses to what we're seeing today, then i'll be better off then i was eod tuesday and that my friends is a silver lining heading into the weekend.

Did anyone else just automatically read "take that to the bank brochachskis" after "that my friends is a silver lining"?

 

[McBokonon]

If we can just keep tomorrow's losses to what we're seeing today, then i'll be better off then i was eod tuesday and that my friends is a silver lining heading into the weekend.

Did anyone else just automatically read "take that to the bank brochachskis" after "that my friends is a silver lining"?

Yup.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

What tweet or piece of news could even come out at this point that would cause a positive spike??

Dropping of remaining tariffs would shoot things through the roof.

I agree.........but it "seems" like there is a zero chance of this. At least with China.

However with all that said, if there was an announcement that ALL tariffs would go back to the exact same as they were on January 19th............yes I'd guess stocks would sore to maybe 5% away from the previous highs.

they could also throw out a "It's a good time to be buying" kind of comment on SM too.

 

[lakerstan]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I was at a tech conference a couple months back and one of the keynote speakers was Zack Kass, former executive and futurist at OpenAI. one of the things he said that stuck with me is that the AI technology currently in development is 3-4 years beyond what's currently available to the public. so people now are using ChatGPT to write docs, make goofy pics, presentations, etc, but a lot of the high value-add stuff they're working on now we don't even know about yet. and as you mentioned, we may never know because it will all be so seamless...

I had something stick with me from Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES this year, which was basically, “Your IT department will be your new HR”. So many jobs will be impacted by AI in one way or another. Example: In 5-10 years, do you think you’ll need a human to take your customer service call? Companies like Salesforce (CRM) use customer journey maps to help human agents through more complex customer inquiries. That will serve as the foundation for AI agents in the future. Anyone using Co-Pilot at work to transcribe meeting notes? Chat GPT to write reviews and professional emails? This isn’t just about making cool pictures.

 

[Sand]

Yesterdays rebound was irrational and todays decline is also irrational.

Maybe just me but I think these swings are magnified by machine trading in modern times - pushing swings further one way or another to grab profit.

Or maybe I'm just imagining this stuff. I'd love to see a VIX plot from the 60s or 70s.

 

[Sand]

I had something stick with me from Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES this year, which was basically, “Your IT department will be your new HR”. So many jobs will be impacted by AI in one way or another. Example: In 5-10 years, do you think you’ll need a human to take your customer service call?

Oh, hell yes. But you won't be able to get one.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

"Influencer"


Go rot.

content creator

even worse, "creatives".

i.e. "I'm a creative." no you're not, because that's an adjective.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I could come up with a few nouns to follow that adjective.

 

[Joe Bryant]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

"Influencer"


Go rot.

content creator

even worse, "creatives".

i.e. "I'm a creative." no you're not, because that's an adjective.

Dang.

What's wrong with being a Content Creator?

That's what I do. I could say I write content and create tools for Fantasy Football. But sometimes a short one or two word job description is useful.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Thinking about PLTR here. It's just so damn expensive. I want to be back in it, and everytime I think about hitting buy, I hear, "Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, 'When am I going to make it back to Haiti?'"

 

[BassNBrew]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I was at a tech conference a couple months back and one of the keynote speakers was Zack Kass, former executive and futurist at OpenAI. one of the things he said that stuck with me is that the AI technology currently in development is 3-4 years beyond what's currently available to the public. so people now are using ChatGPT to write docs, make goofy pics, presentations, etc, but a lot of the high value-add stuff they're working on now we don't even know about yet. and as you mentioned, we may never know because it will all be so seamless...

I had something stick with me from Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES this year, which was basically, “Your IT department will be your new HR”. So many jobs will be impacted by AI in one way or another. Example: In 5-10 years, do you think you’ll need a human to take your customer service call? Companies like Salesforce (CRM) use customer journey maps to help human agents through more complex customer inquiries. That will serve as the foundation for AI agents in the future. Anyone using Co-Pilot at work to transcribe meeting notes? Chat GPT to write reviews and professional emails? This isn’t just about making cool pictures.

Quick aside, do tariffs apply to the Blue Cross customer service reps in India screwing up your call?

I'm using ChatGPT for two things and quite honestly it seems to be back sliding. Marketing descriptions and e-mails all sound the same and often very corny. It's like its learning all of its bad habits. It's still a time saver as it gets it 80% correct in seconds. I've also used it for Fantasy Cycling roster development and it can't add to 100.

Lastly, is it cool for Chatgpt to distribute paid content from someone like Motley Fool?

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

8.49% dividend rate is attractive for sure, but I'm not buying anything Mat Ishbia related. Dude gives me the ick.

Compared to Musk, Bezos, Zuck, Gates, Dimon?

@Chadstroma has met him and says he's a decent guy as I recall. My impression is he's trying to be a second Cuban for better or worse.

Sure, there's plenty of really rich guys that are off-putting to me. You left a few out I find downright despicable. Couple of the ones you mention haven't run their companies in years.

I've met him too. So what? Gave a pretty cringey best man speech at the wedding I was at but that's not why he gives me the ick. You can read Reddit to get some color on him if you want...

All that said, like whom ever you like; invest however you see fit. Me? I'd much rather park money with Bezos or Gates' old companies than Ishbia's.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Chadstroma still long on Uwmc or is it time to cut losses

 

[fruity pebbles]

Nice opportunity today to buy back what you took some profits on yesterday.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma still long on Uwmc or is it time to cut losses

I am waiting to the next refi boom before I sell some. It feels like that may be around the corner. It has been a huge laggard on my portfolio but the dividend keeps me patient.

 

[BassNBrew]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

8.49% dividend rate is attractive for sure, but I'm not buying anything Mat Ishbia related. Dude gives me the ick.

Compared to Musk, Bezos, Zuck, Gates, Dimon?

@Chadstroma has met him and says he's a decent guy as I recall. My impression is he's trying to be a second Cuban for better or worse.

Sure, there's plenty of really rich guys that are off-putting to me. You left a few out I find downright despicable. Couple of the ones you mention haven't run their companies in years.

I've met him too. So what? Gave a pretty cringey best man speech at the wedding I was at but that's not why he gives me the ick. You can read Reddit to get some color on him if you want...

All that said, like whom ever you like; invest however you see fit. Me? I'd much rather park money with Bezos or Gates' old companies than Ishbia's.

Link to reddit if you dont mind or at least key google search words? All i was getting was Suns stuff

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Go 20-30% cash or fixed income or a combo of both to have dry powder for any further time bombs we may see if after the moratorium is up not enough was done.

But my instincts are telling me this part of the poker game is done.

Good evening friends! I hope you all are healthy and happy!

My caretakers @General Malaise and @Thorn can confirm I took roughly 25% of my IRA/401K and put it in a high yield bond ETF at the end of June 24. Took another 25% or so and did the same thing in August. (I may have posted here?) I made similar moves before the dotcom burst, was way early but still much better off. As well as the 2008 financial debacle. I somehow missed the pandemic even though I WAS GIVEN INSIDE INFORMATION ON WHAT WAS GOING DOWN!!! Although not sure how "inside" you would really consider it since it was distributed to thousands of people. I know this, I was too stupid to fully grasp the gravity of the situation.

Anyhow, I don't claim to be some super genius, I do know that when I'm making an insane amount of money in the market for 2+ years. Companies are way too expensive IMO. 80% of hosts and guests of my favorite finance rags are super positive.

I started putting the money back in (fat stacks if 1/4,yo) after the first (please don't make me look up the date) big down turn. Last stack went in on Friday. All in S&P ETF. No need to get fancy. I was up 14%YTD so have some cushion. Still, even after going through similar circumstances in the past, it's gut wrenching. I understand where many of you are coming from.

I'm with you Todem that the ego is POTUS Achille's heal. He thrives on high polling in "whatever", doesn't really matter. Something will be announced soon to at least halt this, IMO. If they don't, I wish I had more money to buy more stock!!

Buying May AAPL calls with the thought that they stand a lot to gain when / if the China tariff issue is resolved (and hoping it comes in less than six weeks.)

This has been the majority of my plays last couple years. Buy AAPL options 3 weeks prior to earnings, which is almost always the last Thursday of the first month after the quarter. Sell 3+ days before they announce. I have a bunch of APPL AND AMZN this earnings period. AMZN just thrown out with the bath water IMO. Got good deals on AAPL at $200 & $220. Plus something I usually don't do and bought calls back in January that they might drop a little Apple I that could be a helluva catalyst.


Sorry for being so wordy. I blame medical weed. Mostly having to wrestle it away from @General Malaise

ETA TLDR

Buy low, sell high, mostly works. You have to follow those instructions though. It seems like there are too many "advisors" who never want to sell. Craziness I tell you.

 

[culdeus]

100% or whatever on China is still a big freaking deal. We just gonna think he walks that back too?

Yes.

There will have to be some sort of ground given by both sides, probably more from
China but it’ll get done.

No sign of this being walked back. I suppose he will tweet it in advance

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Best thread in the FFA

Shucks.

 

[culdeus]

So my MIL got a Benz and can't work the infotainment. Can't get a lesson because there are people out the door wanting to buy a car before tarrifs hir.

 

[Wooderson]

I buy and hold very rarely do I sell. Never sell in my tax sheltered accounts.

Do you people that trade on the regular do it in your brokerage account and say taxes be damned? Or use your tax sheltered account?

 

[culdeus]

I buy and hold very rarely do I sell. Never sell in my tax sheltered accounts.

Do you people that trade on the regular do it in your brokerage account and say taxes be damned? Or use your tax sheltered account?

Roth IRA is my most active account. rest of it may do some tax harvesting from occasion.

 

[Wooderson]

I buy and hold very rarely do I sell. Never sell in my tax sheltered accounts.

Do you people that trade on the regular do it in your brokerage account and say taxes be damned? Or use your tax sheltered account?

Roth IRA is my most active account. rest of it may do some tax harvesting from occasion.

Ever get hit with any trade restrictions if you trade a lot in a short time?

 

[Desert_Power]

Trying to think through things a little more globally. What are some players that might not be overly-impacted by the tariffs AND that I want to be in anyway?

I'm thinking about adding to MELI here. Or at least keeping an eye on it and seeing if there's a further dip. Someone keep my thought process honest here, but an e-commerce giant in Latin America that kind of acts as that region's Amazon, ebay, and paypal shouldn't see much in the way of specific tariff impacts or US recession impacts. Global recession is obviously a concern, but beyond that, I'm struggling to find the downside for them here, beyond what existed previously.

Pro LATAM trade is an interesting idea. This still looks pretty rich though.

I opened a starter position in EWZ today though. There are a few ways that Brazil could benefit from a US-China trade war.

 

[culdeus]

I buy and hold very rarely do I sell. Never sell in my tax sheltered accounts.

Do you people that trade on the regular do it in your brokerage account and say taxes be damned? Or use your tax sheltered account?

Roth IRA is my most active account. rest of it may do some tax harvesting from occasion.

Ever get hit with any trade restrictions if you trade a lot in a short time?

Never hit any limits. I wouldn't call myself super active at all though.

 

[Desert_Power]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

Definitely could be some of this but recall that they buy/hold these to keep the value of their currency low to support exports. Could be doing some to put pressure on though.

I still think there was a big basis trade component as well as a shift of investors away from US assets.

This is where I start to nod & pretend that I follow what you're saying - it all seems impossibly complicated to try to wrap my head around.

In my brain it all falls under the umbrella of "unintended consequences" - and that doesn't inspire confidence over here with me.

I guess I'm saying that China could be selling them to cause market chaos, but doing so causes their currency to rise against the dollar (making their exports less competitive). I think that is part of the dynamic at play for sure.

The Chinese fixed their onshore currency tighter than predicted in the offshore trade. That implies that they were at least somewhat selling. That seemed to be the news that set off Tuesday night's freakout and the semi-reversal.

Oops, they did it again.

 

[Sammy3469]

I had something stick with me from Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES this year, which was basically, “Your IT department will be your new HR”. So many jobs will be impacted by AI in one way or another. Example: In 5-10 years, do you think you’ll need a human to take your customer service call?

Oh, hell yes. But you won't be able to get one.

The smart companies are already building AI CX flows that efficiently lead to CX agents using AI. They won’t deal with mundane things, but the companies that treat that AI and CX interaction as a value add, will be some of the bigger winners as they’ll be able to charge a premium for their service/product.

 

[Sammy3469]

I buy and hold very rarely do I sell. Never sell in my tax sheltered accounts.

Do you people that trade on the regular do it in your brokerage account and say taxes be damned? Or use your tax sheltered account?

Roth IRA is my most active account. rest of it may do some tax harvesting from occasion.

Ever get hit with any trade restrictions if you trade a lot in a short time?

In a Roth (or a cash brokerage account), there are day trading or maintained requirements, so you can round trip with available cash all you want. You do have to wait for the trade to settle (T+1) to reuse the cash. Almost without exception most of the Robinhood or App trading accounts are setup as margin accounts (for a whole host of reasons including they get to keep all the securities lending revenue)

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

8.49% dividend rate is attractive for sure, but I'm not buying anything Mat Ishbia related. Dude gives me the ick.

Compared to Musk, Bezos, Zuck, Gates, Dimon?

@Chadstroma has met him and says he's a decent guy as I recall. My impression is he's trying to be a second Cuban for better or worse.

Sure, there's plenty of really rich guys that are off-putting to me. You left a few out I find downright despicable. Couple of the ones you mention haven't run their companies in years.

I've met him too. So what? Gave a pretty cringey best man speech at the wedding I was at but that's not why he gives me the ick. You can read Reddit to get some color on him if you want...

All that said, like whom ever you like; invest however you see fit. Me? I'd much rather park money with Bezos or Gates' old companies than Ishbia's.

Link to reddit if you dont mind or at least key google search words? All i was getting was Suns stuff

r/Pillar7

 

[tommyGunZ]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

 

[BassNBrew]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

nevermind

 

[Willy]

That's the 10 year. The 30 year really is darn near 5% now.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

 

[Desert_Power]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

 

[BassNBrew]

That's the 10 year. The 30 year really is darn near 5% now.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

Crap, my bad.

 

[BassNBrew]

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that he expects estimates for corporate earnings to fall amid the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s trade negotiations.

First this guy craps all over work from home then he tanks the market. Would have been nice if he stayed at home today and napped.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

What's the significance of the 30 year hitting 5% here? Looks like it was there briefly in January and in October of 2023 as well?

 

[pecorino]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

 

[Desert_Power]

Russell futures hit their max at down 7%. This might be an oh, **** moment.

Copper futures down 8%. We saw some shops upping their recession risk on Friday. Expect the dialogue this week to be about if we're already in one.

Blackrock CEO Fink: We’re very close, if not in a recession right now

 

[BassNBrew]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

History shows repeatedly that when things are bad it's best to be equities. Take advantage of this time if financially feasible for a back door Roth conversion. Personally I'm going to pick the absolute worst bottom and then move funds proportionally as we go down.

 

[Desert_Power]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

Bold is basically right in a simple form I think. Demand for US financial assets is cratering. Which should be more expected when policymakers talk about reducing the trade deficit.

 

[Sand]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

Bond ladder or TIPS ladder can lock in guaranteed rates. Hold until maturity on those and you don't have to worry about market fluctuations. I- bonds are an option, but you are limited on how much you can put in. You can invest in a fixed duration bond ETF if you want an easy way to invest in this way. If you don't want federal you can invest in MSFT or JNJ bonds.

It all depends what you want to do. If you are retiring and want income I'd look at a TIPS ladder. Get enough to provide an inflation protected floor and you can DGAF about market fluctuations.

 

[BassNBrew]

Russell futures hit their max at down 7%. This might be an oh, **** moment.

Copper futures down 8%. We saw some shops upping their recession risk on Friday. Expect the dialogue this week to be about if we're already in one.

Blackrock CEO Fink: We’re very close, if not in a recession right now

And we are ready to scoop up your distressed assets.