Subscriber Contest (5 Viewers)

[The Iguana]

For all of the depth proponents....Why doesn't it seem to apply to kickers and defenses, the most volitile positions in the contest?The majority have 3 of each, but why not go 4?

You mentioned that a DEF can't be injured - that's one. It's more about the fact that only one of those scores will count each week, as opposed to multiple WRs, RBs and even TEs with flex. K and DEF are also much less likely to "break out" for 40 or 50 points in one week, like Arian Foster or Jahvid Best have.I chose 3 each of K and DEF. Even if I could go back and change things now I would add a 10th WR instead of another K or DEF. I have a 28 player roster.

Than why not just go with 2? Is the return on investment just not there for a 4th but it is for a 3rd?

I think it is there. With 2, you have buy weeks in which you have to rely on on 1 of them to do something or if a kicker gets injured/cut then you are down to 1. With 3 you get 3 options to get 1 decent score. On defense, it might be worth it to spend a little more on 2 than split to 3 really cheap ones. I have to look at defense average scoring so far to see, however. So far, my 3 haven't been the best of choices so far with only 11, 9 and 5 points in each of the first 3 weeks as my best score of the 3.

 

[The Iguana]

For all of the depth proponents....Why doesn't it seem to apply to kickers and defenses, the most volitile positions in the contest?The majority have 3 of each, but why not go 4? It only costs $2-5 to add a quality defense or kicker and you are given one more option to save your team with a big score during the byes...if you space them out, you always have 3 options. And defenses can never get injured (although any of them can put up a zero vs. a team like NO or ATL).

The majority of who? Entrants? There are 8223 entrants with 2 kickers. (77.50% survival) There are 2868 entrants with 3 kickers. (81.03% survival)There are 877 entrants with 4 or more. (73.09% survival)Looks like 3 is the sweet spot. Enough diversification to avoid a really disastrous number.There are 8623 entrants with 2 defenses. (77.51% survival)There are 2577 entrants with 3 defenses. (80.17% survival)There are 571 entrants with 4 defenses. (73.91% survival)Again 3 looks like the sweet spot. -QG

Agree that 3 is the sweet spot for both and didn't need any numbers for it, although the numbers seem to confirm it. Defenses: So far this year Defenses have avg about 6.45 pts. Making a few assumptions about the distribution of scores, we can get estimate probabilities of chances a team will score X points if they have Y defenses rostered.I looked at the chances of scoring at least 5 points and at least 10 points:Rostering 1 defense gives you a probability of scoring less than 5 points 36.87% of the time. (This ignores byes for simplicity). And 79.34% of the time it won't score 10+ points.Rostering 2 def: 5+ number drops to 6.8% of the time, and 10+ number drops to 31.47%.Rostering 3 def: won't score 5+ 0.84% of the time, 10+ 8.32%Rostering 4 def: won't score 5+ 0.08% of the time, 10+ 1.65%This obviously makes many simplifying assumptions like independence, and all defenses created equal.Kickers:1 K -> 29.94% chance of not scoring 5+, 75.05% not scoring 10+2 K -> 4.48% chance of not scoring 5+, 28.17% not scoring 10+3 K -> 0.45% chance of not scoring 5+, 7.05% not scoring 10+4 K -> 0.03% chance of not scoring 5+, 1.32% not scoring 10+I think this analysis clearly shows that adding a 3rd Kicker and 3rd Defense can be really helpful in maximizing your floor. And at the same time the cost of a 4th kicker/defense, while helping, isn't helping nearly as much and is probably better spent on an additional position player.

this is overly simplified but I think it statistically represents what I felt to be the case last year and went with this year. That's good stuff IMO.

 

[kevzilla]

Sitting at 173 or so with a small chance of improvement. So far, so good.

 

[The Iguana]

Does CJ Spiller's kickoff return TD count in his scoring. According to the rules, it looks like it only counts as a Defense scoring.

Yes, even though it only counts as a defensive score according to the rules, for some reason Spiller will also be credited with the points, too.

no he won't. didn't happen for mccluster when he scored a kickoff or punt td.

 

[The Iguana]

pretty sure collie and keller might move me on with just a 2 man roster this week. wish I could save some of my first 3 week scores for later in the competition.

 

[bro1ncos]

Sucks about Spiller and Leon who had 2 return TD's and scored zero points this week

Done at 170.15 this week, so I would expect to move on to week 4

 

[urbanhack]

not looking good.....

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

158.2 + Driver - 7.4

"Is it safe? Is it SAFE?" - Laurence Olivier, Marathon Man

 

[TheGrimReaper]

164.6 w/Finley (- 11.4), Knox and J. Jones (- 10.5), and Folk (- 14)

Should be good enough to survive another week.

Was glad to see Spiller contribute some t/d, even though the runback TD wont count. I would expect the cut line to go high again this week with low price contributors like Collie pouring it on. I wish I owned him

And I do agree with the 3+ PK philosophy. Am getting solid 10+ production every week so far w/this strategy using low and mid price kickers.

 

[norgay]

anyone know what the cutoff rates in weeks 1, 2, and 3 were last year? trying to get a sense for what to expect this week. Looks like I'll wind up with ~155 which seems very borderline to me...

 

[Ariakis]

With Stafford, Roeths, and Vick as my QB with one of those 30 man rosters figured I was done now I'm still fairly happy with my squad. Really wish I hadn't bought Calvin Johnson but if I can survive another few weeks he'll be fine too.

 

[WisWolvrns]

It would not surprise me if the cut is rather high this week. Lots of scoring... especially big weeks for a number of different players. Could be the first week the 18 rosters survive more percentage-wise than the other rosters....

 

[theoneandonly]

Anyone got a idea of a cutoff for the week? Im sitting at 150 and a bit nervous from the replys of peoples scores for the week in this thread. I only got a real big week from my qb but Id imagine just about everyone had one of the studs putting up big numbers this week. D.Williams at 28 bucks is my biggest regret.

 

[Twilight]

Anyone got a idea of a cutoff for the week? Im sitting at 150 and a bit nervous from the replys of peoples scores for the week in this thread. I only got a real big week from my qb but Id imagine just about everyone had one of the studs putting up big numbers this week. D.Williams at 28 bucks is my biggest regret.

You can't depend on people postings' to determine the cutoff, as they are more likely to brag than complain (like my 213 this week )And for the "regrets", I'll only regret my expensive players when they stink along with my cheapies. Right now MJD can crap the bed all he wants, because if he does get right in a few weeks while my other players are carrying him, my uniqueness will he helped immensely by him eliminating those more dependent on him.

 

[WisWolvrns]

I concur. Down weeks for players don't matter and are actually welcome so long as enough of them score so you make the cut. Having too much scoring in one week which leaves points on your bench is never wanted. Though even worse than that is injuries. Injured players knock teams out quicker than anything in this type of format, since they get 0's and don't even have a chance at a one week wonder score.

 

[joffer]

169.8. Finley could improve that with a big night. i'd think Finley could move the cut line a lot too.

 

[gandalas]

Chad Henne: 363, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 RY: 29.25

Chris Johnson: 125, 2 TD: 24.5

Arian Foster: 106, 4 Rec. 20 yds: 14.6

Jabar Gaffney: 12 Rec, 140 Yds: 26.0

Louis Murphy: 5 Rec, 119 Yds: 16.9

Deion Branch: 5 Rec, 60 Yds: 11.0

Todd Heap: 4 Rec, 46 Yds: 10.6

Brent Celek: 4 Rec, 42 Yds: 10.2

Seabass: 14 points

Tennessee: 10 points

Total points: 167.05...I think I sneak past the cut by the skin of my teeth again this week...

 

[HairySasquatch]

Team 100198 is moving along. Predicted to have an average score of 191 and a 99.3% chance of moving on. In at 205.85 with Finley (-15.5) and B. Jackson (-14.6) to go.

Notes about my team:

-This is a 26 man roster.

-Garcon is my only injury, but he wasn't doing anything productive anyway. Let him sit out a few weeks to rest up and help eliminate smaller rosters who have him.

-It was nice to see Gaffney show up today. That was the kind of day everyone who picked him in this contest had in mind.

-Finally going to use Brees this week.

-I really like my team as long as B. Jackson keeps the starting job for the season.

-There is a good chance I will not use Finley for the 3rd week in a row.

-I'm really liking the Pitt defense.

 

[BaBastage]

Anyone got a idea of a cutoff for the week? Im sitting at 150 and a bit nervous from the replys of peoples scores for the week in this thread. I only got a real big week from my qb but Id imagine just about everyone had one of the studs putting up big numbers this week. D.Williams at 28 bucks is my biggest regret.

Cutoffs from 2009:Week 1 120.88 Week 2 130.04 Week 3 126.34Week 4 113.79 Week 5 110.99 Week 6 141.44 Week 7 130.29 Week 8 131.44 Week 9 139.19 Week 10 130.04 Week 11 159.49 Week 12 167.89 Week 13 164.24

 

[da_budman]

158.2 + Driver - 7.4"Is it safe? Is it SAFE?" - Laurence Olivier, Marathon Man

You are safe but will probably get knocked down a rung or 2 in next weeks sim because of that score.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Team 100198098 is moving along. Predicted to have an average score of 191 and a 99.3% 92.3% chance of moving on. In at 205.85 185.75 with Finley (-15.5) and B. Jackson (-14.6) Chicago (-8.0) to go.

Notes about my team:

-This is a 26 man roster.

-Garcon Stafford and Laurent Robinson is are my only injuryies, but he wasn't they weren't doing anything productive anyway. Let him them sit out a few weeks to rest up and help eliminate smaller rosters who have him them.

-It was nice to see Gaffney show up today. That was the kind of day everyone who picked him in this contest had in mind.

-Finally going to use Brees maybe the Bears? this week.

-I really like my team as long as B. Jackson Thomas Jones keeps the starting job for the season.

-There is a good chance I will not use Finley for the 3rd week in a row, especially since I don't have him.

-I'm really liking hating the Pitt defense. Mainly because I hate the Steelers.

Fixed -QG

 

[Lock]

Should make it through this week, with 146 or so and but next week is bad 2 of my 6 WR on Bye, Burtleson and L Robinson hurt. Need big weeks out of other guys Rivers, Gore, Turner, Foster, Findley, T Heap. Should be intresting

 

[Donsmith753]

Schaub - 14.05

Bradshaw - 20.3

Jones - 16.1

Gaffney - 26

Murphy - 16.9

Branch - 11

Gates - 27.4

Hernandez - 16.8

Seabass - 14

Bucs - 4

Total - 166.55 (hopefully I'm safe)

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

158.2 + Driver - 7.4"Is it safe? Is it SAFE?" - Laurence Olivier, Marathon Man

You are safe but will probably get knocked down a rung or 2 in next weeks sim because of that score.

my magic 8ball says this is inconceivable.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Pre-MNF sim. The cut will almost certainly be in the low-to-mid 140s.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Pre-MNF sim. The cut will almost certainly be in the low-to-mid 140s.

moving on. thankfully frank gore gets 100+ receiving yards when the niners cant run the ball, lol.

 

[Das Boot]

Sweatin' it each week so far with only 2 QBs and one of them being named Roethlisberger and other being "Boom or Bust" Schaub.

I'll be glad when Roth is back online.

I just hope he gets his starting job back.

 

[Donsmith753]

Sweatin' it each week so far with only 2 QBs and one of them being named Roethlisberger and other being "Boom or Bust" Schaub.I'll be glad when Roth is back online.I just hope he gets his starting job back.

In the same boat, Schaub's been a bit hit/miss so far.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Score has gone up to 207

Rivers, Collie, Moore, Chris Johnson, LT, Murphy...still have Finley (-10) but he's not needed this week.

Scores would seem to be up this week. Cut might be in the low 150s again.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Couldn't disagree more. Barring injury, Brady, Moss, Wayne, Gore and Gates are by definition studs. Manning, AJ, Megatron, Chris Johnson, Dallas Clark are by definition studs.

Barring injury, these guys WILL put up league leading numbers.

I agree with the notion that studs can be found at $15, $7 or less, but its a scavenger hunt.

Then you do agree with me.I wasn't saying that the guys you listed aren't studs. I'm saying there will be cheap studs too, and you agree.

Out of 13,000 entries, someone will win the "scavenger hunt" as you said and they will have the largest number of studs on their roster, as they are defined after Week 16. That will be the winner.

 

[Jayrod]

Sweatin' it each week so far with only 2 QBs and one of them being named Roethlisberger and other being "Boom or Bust" Schaub.I'll be glad when Roth is back online.I just hope he gets his starting job back.

In the same boat, Schaub's been a bit hit/miss so far.

I'm with you guys as well.This down week had me sweating it out, but I should move on with 149 & Finley (-9) to go.

 

[Worm]

100% to move on this week, but with Harrison and Spiller being total busts, and my WR core underperforming, I'm not long for this competition.

 

[matuski]

Score has gone up to 207Rivers, Collie, Moore, Chris Johnson, LT, Murphy...still have Finley (-10) but he's not needed this week. Scores would seem to be up this week. Cut might be in the low 150s again.

Keep us updated.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Score has gone up to 207Rivers, Collie, Moore, Chris Johnson, LT, Murphy...still have Finley (-10) but he's not needed this week. Scores would seem to be up this week. Cut might be in the low 150s again.

Keep us updated.

Seems to be what this 30 page thread mostly is so roger that.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Score has gone up to 207

Rivers, Collie, Moore, Chris Johnson, LT, Murphy...still have Finley (-10) but he's not needed this week.

Scores would seem to be up this week. Cut might be in the low 150s again.

Keep us updated.

Seems to be what this 30 page thread mostly is so roger that.

Only minnows rodents keep the posts per page at 50 imo

 

[BassNBrew]

152 will definately move you on to next week.

Currently sitting at 138 with Cutler (-17) and Finley (-3.6)

 

[BaBastage]

Keep us updated.

MOP is a great poster, and adds a lot to this board.So yeah, I'm actually interested in following his contest team.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Keep us updated.

MOP is a great poster, and adds a lot to this board.So yeah, I'm actually interested in following his contest team.

And that's coming from a Bengals fan Btw, for those who are wondering crowd favorite 21-kicker guy is at 51.7% to advance according to the Turkomatic. He's got Rodgers and Finley going. Oh and Crosby and Gould of course -QG

 

[eaglezzz]

at 193 with Finley to go tonight.

Big week for me with

Rivers, Bradshaw, Marshall combo

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Keep us updated.

MOP is a great poster, and adds a lot to this board.So yeah, I'm actually interested in following his contest team.

And that's coming from a Bengals fan Btw, for those who are wondering crowd favorite 21-kicker guy is at 51.7% to advance according to the Turkomatic. He's got Rodgers and Finley going. Oh and Crosby and Gould of course -QG

It really isnt a good posting. MOP's RB matchup threads? Good positings. Your posts in this thread about roster sizes and survival percentages? Good postings.But no one comes into this thread hoping to hear about other people's teams. The people who post their scores and rosters each week are just bragging, and would get ripped for it in any other thread in the Pool.

 

[QuizGuy66]

It's all good The contest is technically a Ron Popeil deal anyway - set it and forget it.

Some of the tracking posts are good as they will illustrate what folks have done right and what they regret, which can be instructive for future year

Guess I don't see the harm at any rate.

-QG

 

[Alberta Clipper]

gulp 147 (done) - sim currently says 83% but I'm thinking more 50/50.

Estimated cut is 146 right now with the sim saying those done in the 144's having 50 - 57% rate.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have CJ Spiller and Leon Washington.

Me too.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have CJ Spiller and Leon Washington.

Me too.

Moi aussi.

Would someone please tell the Seattle coaching staff that Washington's healthy enough to play RB?

You know, seeing those electric returns, I bet you we see Washington touch the ball more as a RB from here on out.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I have CJ Spiller and Leon Washington.

Me too.

-QG

 

[jdoggydogg]

I am very happy with my 27 man roster.

But man are my RBs awful. So far, the large roster platoon is killing it for me with my TEs and WRs. I spread out a lot of money between my 8 WR and my 3 TE. Most expensive WR is Santana at $18 and most expensive TE is Zach Miller at $15. I'm going to need guys like Shonn Greene and Spiller to really step up for me to have a shot at this thing.

 

[TheFanatic]

is Shonn Greene the worst pick of this contest?

Best pick of the contest maybe be the Skins kicker!!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

152 will definately move you on to next week.Currently sitting at 138 with Cutler (-17) and Finley (-3.6)

Go Finley!

 

[BassNBrew]

152 will definately move you on to next week.Currently sitting at 138 with Cutler (-17) and Finley (-3.6)

Go Finley!

opps...make that Finley - 7.3.Somehow the sim gives me a 96% chance of moving on. Seems hig to me.

 

[The Iguana]

152 will definately move you on to next week.Currently sitting at 138 with Cutler (-17) and Finley (-3.6)

Go Finley!

opps...make that Finley - 7.3.Somehow the sim gives me a 96% chance of moving on. Seems hig to me.

pretty sure he said that the sim is estimating the cut to fall about 145ish. would have to move pretty big and have that not be because of finley for you to not make it.