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WisWolvrns said:
As Joe might say... "a glitch in the matrix" Good luck through the byes week. Hopefully most of us posting here make it through to the other side!
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According to the sim I have better than a 95%chance of surviving this week but due to some dumb last minute changes without re-checking bye week issues and an Injury to my second qb with Brady on a by week next week I am expecting that percentage to drop below 50% for next week ( yes I am counting my chickens before they hatch so obviously my goose that lays the golden eggs will lay several eggs which are below standard this week making my issues next week a moot point.)
 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
On another note, I think I may have understated the number of teams that have the minimum number of players at a position. I just re-ran the query and came up with 1236 of them, 811 of which are 18-man teams. That is a lot of poorly constructed teams. Also surprisingly, 11 of the remaining 217 30-man teams (a little more than 5%) fall into this boat. These include 21-kicker guy and 17-defense guy.
Click to expand...
Weird tidbit for this morning... I was just flagging all the "junk" entries in the database, and I thought I had some kind of glitch where I was double-counting the rows because I kept coming up with 2472. I couldn't figure out what the problem was, though. Then I remembered that I had added all the eliminated entries since the last time I ran this, and as it turns out, there were exactly 1236 junk entries that have already been eliminated. That is, there were 2472 junk entries to start the contest, and exactly half of them have been eliminated so far. Not very interesting, I suppose, but I just thought it was strange.
Click to expand...
That shows that the "junk" entries are really skewing the survival numbers against smaller roster teams, and that's with a very limited definition of "junk." The well-constructed smaller roster teams (especially stud-led, vs. loaded with mediocre mid-priced players) are surviving at a much higher rate than people think.
 
Ahmad Rashad said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
On another note, I think I may have understated the number of teams that have the minimum number of players at a position. I just re-ran the query and came up with 1236 of them, 811 of which are 18-man teams. That is a lot of poorly constructed teams. Also surprisingly, 11 of the remaining 217 30-man teams (a little more than 5%) fall into this boat. These include 21-kicker guy and 17-defense guy.
Click to expand...
Weird tidbit for this morning... I was just flagging all the "junk" entries in the database, and I thought I had some kind of glitch where I was double-counting the rows because I kept coming up with 2472. I couldn't figure out what the problem was, though. Then I remembered that I had added all the eliminated entries since the last time I ran this, and as it turns out, there were exactly 1236 junk entries that have already been eliminated. That is, there were 2472 junk entries to start the contest, and exactly half of them have been eliminated so far. Not very interesting, I suppose, but I just thought it was strange.
Click to expand...
That shows that the "junk" entries are really skewing the survival numbers against smaller roster teams, and that's with a very limited definition of "junk." The well-constructed smaller roster teams (especially stud-led, vs. loaded with mediocre mid-priced players) are surviving at a much higher rate than people think.
Click to expand...
We haven't hit the byes yet. Bye weeks are where shorter rosters struggle the most.
 
About ready to throw in the towel :popcorn:

Foster's benching will probably be the final nail in my team's coffin :(

Through the early games I'm at 95.3

+ The higher of Anderson/Rivers

+ Foster - 2.0

+ Muphy - 2.0

+ Fasano -0.7

+ Janikowski - 14.0

+ Chicago - 10.0

:blackdot:

:rolleyes:

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
About ready to throw in the towel :thumbdown:Foster's benching will probably be the final nail in my team's coffin :(Through the early games I'm at 95.3+ The higher of Anderson/Rivers+ Foster - 2.0+ Muphy - 2.0+ Fasano -0.7+ Janikowski - 14.0+ Chicago - 10.0:goodposting: :bag: -QG
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Not sure where the cut will be, but it should drop significantly from last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see 120 or so. Assuming your QB's pan out, I'd say you're gonna be close, but not dead...
 
Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 120's? I could be in trouble if Bradshaw doesn't show up. My total for both RB spots is under 5 points (B. Jackson, Foster, Jennings, Bradshaw). AP on his bye week. Hmmmmmm.....with everyone else just putting up average numbers, I'm in trouble.

Edit that........Foster just ripped a 74 yard TD.

Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 130's? :excited:

 
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QuizGuy66 said:
About ready to throw in the towel :unsure:

Foster's benching will probably be the final nail in my team's coffin :(

Through the early games I'm at 95.3

+ The higher of Anderson/Rivers

+ Foster - 2.0

+ Muphy - 2.0

+ Fasano -0.7

+ Janikowski - 14.0

+ Chicago - 10.0

:excited:

:wall:

-QG
Click to expand...
Im at 137 right now Team 100137 (thanks for that run 74 yard run - Arian Foster) and i'll get whatever points Desean Jax and Matt Forte can muster. Funniest thing, Sam Bradford will beat Peyton Manning today with his 24 pts I think
 
HairySasquatch said:
Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 120's? I could be in trouble if Bradshaw doesn't show up. My total for both RB spots is under 5 points (B. Jackson, Foster, Jennings, Bradshaw). AP on his bye week. Hmmmmmm.....with everyone else just putting up average numbers, I'm in trouble.Edit that........Foster just ripped a 74 yard TD.Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 130's? :excited:
Click to expand...
At the rate I'm going, I need the cutline to be in the low 90's
 
HairySasquatch said:
Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 120's? I could be in trouble if Bradshaw doesn't show up. My total for both RB spots is under 5 points (B. Jackson, Foster, Jennings, Bradshaw). AP on his bye week. Hmmmmmm.....with everyone else just putting up average numbers, I'm in trouble.Edit that........Foster just ripped a 74 yard TD.Anyone else rooting for the cut line to be in the low 130's? :goodposting:
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I was actually hoping Foster wasn't going to play at all. Sneak into next week and thin out some other Foster owners.
 
Looks like I am at 150.85 and done for the week.

I would think this would get me through another week.

 
bro1ncos said:
Looks like I am at 150.85 and done for the week.I would think this would get me through another week.
Click to expand...
A. Johnson, Ray Rice, Vick among many others who dipped should keep scores low. You should be very happy to have 150 as its a virtual lock.
 
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Thank you TO for putting up enough points to cover for the 9 other receivers on my team that completely vanished from existence this week.

 
SSOG said:
Ahmad Rashad said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
On another note, I think I may have understated the number of teams that have the minimum number of players at a position. I just re-ran the query and came up with 1236 of them, 811 of which are 18-man teams. That is a lot of poorly constructed teams. Also surprisingly, 11 of the remaining 217 30-man teams (a little more than 5%) fall into this boat. These include 21-kicker guy and 17-defense guy.
Click to expand...
Weird tidbit for this morning... I was just flagging all the "junk" entries in the database, and I thought I had some kind of glitch where I was double-counting the rows because I kept coming up with 2472. I couldn't figure out what the problem was, though. Then I remembered that I had added all the eliminated entries since the last time I ran this, and as it turns out, there were exactly 1236 junk entries that have already been eliminated. That is, there were 2472 junk entries to start the contest, and exactly half of them have been eliminated so far. Not very interesting, I suppose, but I just thought it was strange.
Click to expand...
That shows that the "junk" entries are really skewing the survival numbers against smaller roster teams, and that's with a very limited definition of "junk." The well-constructed smaller roster teams (especially stud-led, vs. loaded with mediocre mid-priced players) are surviving at a much higher rate than people think.
Click to expand...
We haven't hit the byes yet. Bye weeks are where shorter rosters struggle the most.
Click to expand...
Clearly, especially the "junk" entries that have no depth at all. IE's analysis didn't take into account those teams that would be short-handed because of bad bye week planning, so there are actually a lot more "junk" entries that will be wiped out the next few weeks.
 
Rivers

Foster

LT

Mathews

Collie

L.Moore

Henderson

Finley

Bryant

Detroit

Somewhere around 175-176 if my pizza math is correct. Wasn't feeling good until I went home and started looking stuff up. Would have been interesting if Foster was sat for the entire game as like 50% of all owners have Foster, right? Would have chopped some of those folks right off and that would be fine with me. Moore/Henderson helped. Still have Welker but it doesn't matter right now. Had a couple bye week issues this week but sailed thru hopefully. Good luck to everyone else. Any idea if scores are up/down?

 
Ugh Stafford Vick Roethlisberger ... probably survive this week but if Vick sits I may not get bridged to Roeths coming back afterall.

 
After some rough math: 157.35 with Forte (-3.5) and Aaron Hernandez ( - 15) left.

Gage (5 points) Deon Branch (2) hurt, but Zach Miller, Ben Watson, and Mike THomas all played well. and Jason Hanson gave me 20 points. I am liking my 4 kicker and 4 defense choices.

My receiver situation is an absolute mess with Garcon hurt (and ineffective) and same with Laurent Robinson.

 
Ahmad Rashad said:
That shows that the "junk" entries are really skewing the survival numbers against smaller roster teams, and that's with a very limited definition of "junk." The well-constructed smaller roster teams (especially stud-led, vs. loaded with mediocre mid-priced players) are surviving at a much higher rate than people think.
Click to expand...
Survival rates for non-junk entries, through week 3:Small rosters 73.8%Medium rosters 75.9%Large rosters 81.1%And again, we haven't even begun to see the effects of bye weeks and injuries, which is really why small rosters are at such a big disadvantage. The idea was that smaller rosters would be better, cumulatively over a three week period with no byes or eliminations. Well, among all the non-junk entries that survived past week two, here are their average cumulative scores for weeks 1-3:Small rosters 508.7Medium rosters 518.1Large rosters 520.2
 
I thought 4 qbs would be enough this year to deal with injury/poor play - guess not. Granted 1 was Big Ben.

Any chance Delhomme plays next week?

 
I really enjoy this contest lots of fun.I think I should do well until week 7 half my team is on bye that week.You would have thought I would have checked players byes but noooooo.Anyway its lots of fun.Love reading the posts.

 
Balco said:
My receiver situation is an absolute mess
Click to expand...
Looks like several others with WR problems this week. Me too.I have Roddy, but after that, a bunch of zeroes (or near zeroes): Garcon, Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, and then TB Mike and McCluster on a bye. Ouch.
 
As of right now I have 2.5 and 2.2 out of WR2 and WR3, and and 5.2 out of RB2 (Bradshaw - still playing) :goodposting: . Hopefully Aaron Hernandez can give me a decent flex tomorrow, or I may be toast. Will be a shame with Foster, Z Miller, Chargers D going off and Rivers and Calvin turning in some pretty good performances.

My WR's:

Calvin Johnson

Jacoby Jones

Mike Williams (TB)

James Jones

Bernard Berrian

Laurent Robinson

Legedu Naanee

Brian Robiskie

Louis Murphy

Greg Camarillo

1 catch for Jones x 2, 1 catch for Legedu, 1 catch for Murphy, nothing for Robiskie and Laurent as usual.

 
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LittlePhatty said:
Balco said:
My receiver situation is an absolute mess
Click to expand...
Looks like several others with WR problems this week. Me too.I have Roddy, but after that, a bunch of zeroes (or near zeroes): Garcon, Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, and then TB Mike and McCluster on a bye. Ouch.
Click to expand...
I have Mccluster and Williams too, and also Sammie Stroughter on a bye, but he probably would have given me a zero anyway.
 
436 entries with Andre Johnson and Adrian Peterson.

354 had survived the first three weeks (81.19% vs 65.24% overall survival)

That number should go down significantly this week.

Who were some of the other trouble/bye players that are going to take a hit this week?

-QG

 
176.5 with Aaron Hernandez (-8) left. Should be enough.

My WRs had a rough week (Nicks, Murphy, Garcon, Jacoby Jones, Austin Miles) but Foster, Zach Miller, and Jason Hanson picked up the slack.

 
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.

393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.

This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.

If you add in Andre Johnson to the above 3 guys, you have 51 entries, of which 50 were still alive going into this week.

Here's what I got for some commonly owned guys either on bye or who had substandard performances or were out.

Derek Anderson

Matt Stafford (of course)

Roethlisberger (of course)

Chris Johnson

Ray Rice

Michael Turner

Matt Forte

Johnny Knox

Adrian Peterson

Pierre Garcon

Mike Williams

Louis Murphy

CJ Spiller

Thomas Jones

Tashard Choice

Bernard Berrian

Laurent Robinson

Visanthe Shiancoe

-QG

 
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Andre Johnson and Chris Johnson. $72 combined.

587 out of 736 entries with these two guys were alive going into this weekend. 79.76%

This herd should be getting thinned a bit too.

-QG

 
Right around 200 points by my count with this:

Rodgers

Foster

Gore

Tomlinson

Nicks

Jennings

Avant (!)

Finley

Hanson

Giants

I don't see my getting past week 7 due to poor planning w/my RBs, but it'll be fun until then I guess.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope so. I have all three and will be moving on (just under 200 right now with a couple left tomorrow to go), so more uniqueness would be a good thing.
 
Twilight said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope so. I have all three and will be moving on (just under 200 right now with a couple left tomorrow to go), so more uniqueness would be a good thing.
Click to expand...
same boat, but only around 170ish :goodposting:
 
Twilight said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope so. I have all three and will be moving on (just under 200 right now with a couple left tomorrow to go), so more uniqueness would be a good thing.
Click to expand...
I don't see a lot of these owners getting eliminated this week. Some, sure. A lot, no. I'm guessing that most of the people who rostered all three guys went the route of having many lower priced WRs. I have these three, but I also took 8 other WRs. I was the extreme, but it was not a unique strategy.
 
HairySasquatch said:
Twilight said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope so. I have all three and will be moving on (just under 200 right now with a couple left tomorrow to go), so more uniqueness would be a good thing.
Click to expand...
I don't see a lot of these owners getting eliminated this week. Some, sure. A lot, no. I'm guessing that most of the people who rostered all three guys went the route of having many lower priced WRs. I have these three, but I also took 8 other WRs. I was the extreme, but it was not a unique strategy.
Click to expand...
That original survival rate though is 90.34% which is crazy high. Don't get me wrong, it won't fall below whatever the average percentage is for the season or anything, but I wouldn't be survived if it was below or right at the line for the week 4 survival rate of 83%I do think that the more expensive Andre/Chris Johnson combo and Andre/ADP combo wills suffer greatly.-QG
 
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Twilight said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Garcon, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy.393 out of 435 entries having all three were alive going into this week.This should take a hit, though the $ involved being low may shelter some of these entries.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope so. I have all three and will be moving on (just under 200 right now with a couple left tomorrow to go), so more uniqueness would be a good thing.
Click to expand...
Same scenario with me. Would also like this to be a week folks with Chris Johnson perish
 
QG>Stafford should be back before Rivers' bye week, right? Right? :goodposting:

I noticed some time back we had the same quarterbacks. I don't think Anderson is gonna do us much good going forward.

 
Andre Johnson

Santana Moss

Mike Williams

Bernard Berrian

Laurent Robinson

Louis Murphy

Deion Branch

Can anyone top that combo? Here's to 40+ for Brady tomorrow!

 
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