I'm guessing the cutoff will be in the low 130s:Last week NFL teams scored a cumulative 618 points. So far this week NFL teams have scored 518 points with 2 still games to go, so seems like total points scored by NFL teams will be ~5% less than last week.The cut this week takes the contest down to 5,000 teams. Last week, Team #5,000 scored 140.4 points. Adjusting slightly downwards for the ~5% fewer points scored in the NFL this week, you could make the argument that the cutoff should be in the low 130s.Obviously this is very back of the envelope and doesn't take into account ownership of certain players etc... but since the scoring seemed fairly spread out I don't imagine that would change things too much.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter eaglezzz
- Start date
Utter Chaos
Footballguy
166.85 with Garcon (-10.1), Bironis (-11) and Jax D (-6) left.
Usage so far
QB: Schaub (2), Flaco (3), Big Ben (1)
RB: D.Williams (2), Forte (4), Foster (5), L.Washington (0), T.Jones (2)
WR: Garcon (1), D.Bryant (4), Tampa Mike (3), McCluster (1), L.Robinson (1), L.Murphy (4), Branch (4), Camirillo (0), Crayton (1)
TE: Celek (2), Carlson (3), Hernandez (4)
K: Rackers (2), Bironis (2), Janikowski (2), Mare (0)
D: NE (2), Chi (1.5), Jax (0), TB (1.5), Det (1)
Other: 0.00 (1)
Usage so far
QB: Schaub (2), Flaco (3), Big Ben (1)
RB: D.Williams (2), Forte (4), Foster (5), L.Washington (0), T.Jones (2)
WR: Garcon (1), D.Bryant (4), Tampa Mike (3), McCluster (1), L.Robinson (1), L.Murphy (4), Branch (4), Camirillo (0), Crayton (1)
TE: Celek (2), Carlson (3), Hernandez (4)
K: Rackers (2), Bironis (2), Janikowski (2), Mare (0)
D: NE (2), Chi (1.5), Jax (0), TB (1.5), Det (1)
Other: 0.00 (1)
Joe Flacco... nicley done, that 26.75 was much needed.... definitely feeling safe at 170.55 points
Arian Foster's 24.7 was nice, Gore's 14.9 is a help, AJ's 27.8, Patrick Crayton 17.7 (thanks for joining us this year!), Jabar Gaffney's 14.1, Aaron Hernandez's 13.9, Sebastien Janikowski's 11 (assuming Birnoas doesn't beat it), Chicago's 6 & Lance Moore's 13.7 points...... should be on to week 7 , where I will have to withstand no Best or Foster or Andre Johnson, meaning Tolbert will likely be my RB2....... hopefully, I can squeeze through
Arian Foster's 24.7 was nice, Gore's 14.9 is a help, AJ's 27.8, Patrick Crayton 17.7 (thanks for joining us this year!), Jabar Gaffney's 14.1, Aaron Hernandez's 13.9, Sebastien Janikowski's 11 (assuming Birnoas doesn't beat it), Chicago's 6 & Lance Moore's 13.7 points...... should be on to week 7 , where I will have to withstand no Best or Foster or Andre Johnson, meaning Tolbert will likely be my RB2....... hopefully, I can squeeze through
Last edited by a moderator:
thatguythere
Footballguy
No more rhyme's now, I mean it.....
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Others will tell you but we rarely have all 1,000 people eliminated each week check in here and tell us personally on Sunday afternoons or nights.
The Iguana
Footballguy
anybody want a peanut?
kardplayer
Footballguy
NFL Points each week:585, 663, 694, 578, 638, 518 (with 2 games to go)5000th place has dropped each week despite the fact that points have been up and down:Week 1 - 172.9Week 2 - 170.05Week 3 - 167.45Week 4 - 151.95Week 5 - 140.4What does it mean? I have no idea, but there's the data for ya...
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
5000th out of 13,000 is a lot different from 5,000th out of 8000. Naturally, 5000th place should drop each week. When there are only 5000 teams, 5000th place will be a pretty low score...
kardplayer
Footballguy
Just trying to give the folks who are sweating the Turk some way to guess at what the cutoff might be. Based on the above, I would think its in the 130's, possibly high 120's...
The more teams you have, the more player combos you have, which means that you should expect a higher point total the more teams are playing. Obviously the team sample that most closely reflects this week's is last week's. So I think its fair to say that the farther back you go, the less viable the comparison.I guess I miscounted last week's point total. If it was 638 then this week's total should be 5-10% lower than last week's. That would imply something in the 126-133 range.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Unofficially at 171.55 + all of Garcon's 2nd half points. Welcome to the squad Ben! And welcome back Garcon!
Last edited by a moderator:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Collie and Garcon helped shake things up. 171 with Chris Johnson (-12) still to go. When do the vuts slow down? We go to 5,000 this week...4,000 next, 3,000 the week after? I gotta go read the rules. I imagine the cuts are going to get nasty.
Some big bye weeks next week including Arian Foster and LT who are on a lot of rosters. I think Indy is off too which makes the Collie/Garcon combo nill for me too, Finley down for the season...gonna get rough.
Some big bye weeks next week including Arian Foster and LT who are on a lot of rosters. I think Indy is off too which makes the Collie/Garcon combo nill for me too, Finley down for the season...gonna get rough.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
I'm all finished at 149.35. Hopefully that will be good enough to skate by on my lowest scoring week.
Man do I need Antonio Gates back.
Man do I need Antonio Gates back.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
5,000 this week
4,000 next
3,100 week 8...lot of bye week issues for folks that week.
2,300 week 9
1,600 week 10
1,000 week 11
500 week 12
250 week 13
Death to many coming soon.
4,000 next
3,100 week 8...lot of bye week issues for folks that week.
2,300 week 9
1,600 week 10
1,000 week 11
500 week 12
250 week 13
Death to many coming soon.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
You really want the 17th percentile score from each week for comparative purposes. This week's cut value should be fairly similar to last week, except that foster put up a decent score and should help a bunch of folks. Sitting at 156ish plus Bironas-5, should be OK, but not a cakewalk. Not liking being Finleyless, lost my 1-2 punch at TE with Witten for the rest of the contest...
wollac
Footballguy
There are 6101 players remaining. This week, 1101 out of 6101 will be cut. That is roughly the 18th percentile. If we look back to the 18th percentile from the comparative bye weeks this season, the cutoffs would be:Week 4: 133.25 Week 5: 129.45So my guess for a cutoff this week will be...131.35...so what say you DD?
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
17th percentile for Weeks 1-5W1 - 138.5W2 - 142.1W3 - 146.65W4 - 132.25W5 - 128.3Cut should be 130 +/- 5 pts is my guess - anyone over 140 is likely in the clear
wollac
Footballguy
Following the same logic...Week 7 will shave 1000 out of 5000, or the 20th percentile
20th percentile for:
Week 4: 135.05
Week 5: 131.30
Week 7 estimated cutoff...133.20
Week 8 will shave 900 out of 4000, or the 22.5th percentile
22.5th percentile for:
Week 4: 137.35
Week 5: 133.55
Week 8 estimated cutoff...135.45
Week 9 will shave 800 out of 3100, or the 25.8th percentile
25.8th percentile for:
Week 4: 140.25
Week 5: 136.15
Week 9 estimated cutoff...138.2
Week 10 will shave 700 out of 2300, or the 30.4th percentile
30.4th percentile for:
Week 4: 144.00
Week 5: 139.80
Week 10 estimated cutoff...141.90
Starting in Week 11, there are no more byes, so I will switch my comparison to Weeks 1-3
Week 11 will shave 600 of 1600, or the 37.5th percentile
37.5th percentile for:
Week 1: 157.0
Week 2: 157.35
Week 3: 160.95
Week 11 estimated cutoff...158.45
Week 12 will shave 500 of 1000, or the 50th percentile
Week 13 will shave 250 of 500, or the 50th percentile
50th percentile for:
Week 1: 165.55
Week 2: 164.85
Week 3: 167.40
Week 12 estimated cutoff...165.95
Week 13 estimated cutoff...165.95
In summary...
Week 6 estimated cutoff...131.35 (Last year = 141.44)
Week 7 estimated cutoff...133.20 (Last year = 130.29)
Week 8 estimated cutoff...135.45 (Last year = 131.44)
Week 9 estimated cutoff...138.20 (Last year = 139.19)
Week 10 estimated cutoff...141.90 (Last year = 130.04)
Week 11 estimated cutoff...158.45 (Last year = 159.49)
Week 12 estimated cutoff...165.95 (Last year = 167.89)
Week 13 estimated cutoff...165.95 (Last year = 164.24)
Two notes to mention:
1) Weeks 8 and 9 have six teams on bye weeks, versus four teams during the other bye weeks, which may skew the week 8 and 9 cutoff a little lower. But on the flip side...entries good enough to make it to weeks 8 and 9 were probably submitted by the more savvy managers who were probably well aware of this and made adjustments to their rosters so as to more evenly spread out their bye weeks.
2) Overall, I think these cutoffs are skewed slightly low across the board. For example, to make it to week 13, you've got to have a pretty solid roster. But you are now in a population with 499 other managers that are also pretty solid. To compare this population with the population of rosters that exist in weeks 1-3 (sorry 22-kicker guy) is probably not very scientifically sound.
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
After todays games, I have used everyone except G. Camarillo and R. Jennings on my 26 man roster. I don't see that changing.
On to week 7 with over 170 points.
On to week 7 with over 170 points.
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Doug is usually here by now with a pre mon nite sim. You alrigtht DD? 
All is well. Just running a little late. Update will be posted by 11 eastern (probably sooner).
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Sorry for the delay, folks. Here is the pre-MNF sim. Looks like the cut will be high 130s or low 140s.
TheChairman
Footballguy
Moving on. Next week will be an interesting scoring week for sure.
Just a quick observation from pre-Monday night sim, a lot of small rosters and Finlay owners going home.
Came in 584 this week- entry 108770. Averaging about 170 a week with the worst week 160. If I can make past next week missing Foster, C Johnson, J Jones and maybe Floyd I should make another deep run.
Came in 584 this week- entry 108770. Averaging about 170 a week with the worst week 160. If I can make past next week missing Foster, C Johnson, J Jones and maybe Floyd I should make another deep run.
gandalas
Footballguy
QB: Shaub (27.55)
RB: Arian Foster (24.7)
RB: Ronnie Brown (8.0)
WR: Deion Branch (24.8)
WR: Jabar Gaffney (14.1)
WR: Wes Welker (12.3)
TE: Todd Heap (15.4)
TE: Brent Celek (10.6)
PK: Jason Hanson (14)
DEF: Tampa Bay (2.0)
So, I am at 153.45 with Chris Johnson (-8), Rob Bironas (-14), and Titans Defense (-2) still to go. On to week 7 and praying for a big week from Henne - missing Shaub and Arian Foster...
Then week 8 I have NO tight ends...not the best planning on my part, I know...
RB: Arian Foster (24.7)
RB: Ronnie Brown (8.0)
WR: Deion Branch (24.8)
WR: Jabar Gaffney (14.1)
WR: Wes Welker (12.3)
TE: Todd Heap (15.4)
TE: Brent Celek (10.6)
PK: Jason Hanson (14)
DEF: Tampa Bay (2.0)
So, I am at 153.45 with Chris Johnson (-8), Rob Bironas (-14), and Titans Defense (-2) still to go. On to week 7 and praying for a big week from Henne - missing Shaub and Arian Foster...
Then week 8 I have NO tight ends...not the best planning on my part, I know...
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Next week should be interesting. I have issues, hopefully like everyone, at RB with Foster off. Will have to use 2 of 3 of Rice, Tolbert, and Leon Washington. 
Pretty good everywhere else. I was worried this week with only Orton as my QB vs the Jets. Looking good until week 10 where lots will have issues I think, and I don't think mine will be as bad as some.
Pretty good everywhere else. I was worried this week with only Orton as my QB vs the Jets. Looking good until week 10 where lots will have issues I think, and I don't think mine will be as bad as some.
gandalas
Footballguy
If I can actually make it that far, I should be golden that week. I am only missing 2 WR and 1 Kicker in week 10.Looking good until week 10 where lots will have issues I think, and I don't think mine will be as bad as some.
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
Had no tight ends this week, with Finley out and Gresham on bye, and also worried about Rodgers possibly being out as my only QB not on bye, but it turns out I probably didn't need a QB or a TE to make the cut this week... Hopefully these guys can score like this the rest of the bye weeks...
This has been the strangest year, all of a sudden I am heavily counting on the Vikings. My team has held up well this year, but everyone on my team keeps getting traded and most of them ending up on the Vikings roster.
Greg Camarillo-Vikings
Randy Moss-Vikings
already had AP- Vikings
Then I had D Branch go to the Patriots
Entry 103842
luckily all of them happened after the teams bye weeks, because that could of really killed me. but having my two most expensive players on the same team is not making me very excited.
Greg Camarillo-Vikings
Randy Moss-Vikings
already had AP- Vikings
Then I had D Branch go to the Patriots
Entry 103842
luckily all of them happened after the teams bye weeks, because that could of really killed me. but having my two most expensive players on the same team is not making me very excited.
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
100% with Javon Ringer going tonight.
Hope I make it
Hope I make it
rustycolts
Footballguy
Looks like I make it this week,but I have no chance next week.My lineup will be
QBs Ryan,Rivers
RBs Turner and Spiller.Foster on bye Grant out
WRs R.Moss,LNaanee,G.Camarillo, Edwards,Garcon and Collie on bye
TEs Heap,Keller and Clark on bye
K Reed, Dawson on bye
Ds Browns,Bucs,49ers
Really poor planing on my part.Saw it but didn't fix it was hoping I would get lucky.So barring a miracle I am toast.Fun while it lasted though
QBs Ryan,Rivers
RBs Turner and Spiller.Foster on bye Grant out
WRs R.Moss,LNaanee,G.Camarillo, Edwards,Garcon and Collie on bye
TEs Heap,Keller and Clark on bye
K Reed, Dawson on bye
Ds Browns,Bucs,49ers
Really poor planing on my part.Saw it but didn't fix it was hoping I would get lucky.So barring a miracle I am toast.Fun while it lasted though
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Fixed a bit to make it clearer who you have on bye.So you're line-up will be probablyLooks like I make it this week,but I have no chance next week.My lineup will be
QBs Ryan,Rivers
RBs Turner and Spiller. I have Foster on bye Grant out
WRs R.Moss,LNaanee,G.Camarillo. I have Edwards,Garcon and Collie on bye
TEs Heap, I have Keller and Clark on bye
K Reed, I have Dawson on bye
Ds Browns,Bucs,49ers
Really poor planing on my part.Saw it but didn't fix it was hoping I would get lucky.So barring a miracle I am toast.Fun while it lasted though
Rivers (possibly Ryan)
Turner
Spiller
R Moss
Camarillo
Naanee
Heap
no flex
Reed
Browns Bucs or 49ers
You have a tough situation for sure, but I think you're far from being done altogether. You just need Spiller to show up and Rivers and Turner to go ape.
I predict the Turkomatic will give you about a 30% chance of advancing.
-QG
themeanmachine
Footballguy
ugh, sitting at 139... 25% chance of advancing according to the sim. Here's to a low-scoring game!
rustycolts
Footballguy
Thanks for the fix,I need all the help I can get especially next week lol.Lookin tough for the home team.Fixed a bit to make it clearer who you have on bye.So you're line-up will be probablyLooks like I make it this week,but I have no chance next week.My lineup will be
QBs Ryan,Rivers
RBs Turner and Spiller. I have Foster on bye Grant out
WRs R.Moss,LNaanee,G.Camarillo. I have Edwards,Garcon and Collie on bye
TEs Heap, I have Keller and Clark on bye
K Reed, I have Dawson on bye
Ds Browns,Bucs,49ers
Really poor planing on my part.Saw it but didn't fix it was hoping I would get lucky.So barring a miracle I am toast.Fun while it lasted though
Rivers (possibly Ryan)
Turner
Spiller
R Moss
Camarillo
Naanee
Heap
no flex
Reed
Browns Bucs or 49ers
You have a tough situation for sure, but I think you're far from being done altogether. You just need Spiller to show up and Rivers and Turner to go ape.
I predict the Turkomatic will give you about a 30% chance of advancing.
-QG
del mar
Footballguy
Unfortunately Rivers going ape is unlikely. Gates is having an MRI this morning - it does not look at all good for a quick return. Floyd has a hammy now to match the one Naanee already had. It will take some king of miracle for Rivers to be hot throwing to Crayton, Buster Davis, and McMichael.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
-QG
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Whats the site again with the scores?
Fnatsystar.....?
Fnatsystar.....?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
You'll also need to figure in the Foster factor. If you have a ballpark for the average RB2 score last year you'll need to adjust the projected cutoffs +/- 80% of whatever number Foster posts over/under the average (especially on the over side).wollac said:
