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eaglezzz said:
Bankerguy said:
eaglezzz said:
Bankerguy said:
There is a 23.7 percent chance of Jason Avant saving my bacon.....I'm not overly optimistic.
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he is due for a TD. He usually will get you 4 catches for 40 yds and 25% chance of a TD. Last week he got a TD called back and last game against the Redskins the last second hail mary just fell out of his hands.Good Luck and Go EAGLES
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Scary that I am rooting for an Eagles tonight. I believe 5-50-1 would be about what I need.
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Looks like you got it. See you next week. Avant is always the over looked WR in Philly. He is the most underrated WR in the NFL in my opinion.
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I got in! Cannot believe it. Thank you AVANT!
 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Grid71 said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Since the number was manageable I took a quick look at the lucky 69. There's about 11 or so that really were in any danger of missing the cut (55% or lower). So Vick's not going to move the number that much.

This Guy was #5 in the Turkomatic BEFORE Vick's game. Vick's score will be replacing Matt Cassel's pedestrian effort :)

THIS GUY had a 0.3% chance according to the Turkomatic. That must've been some sim because even with Vick at 60.15, that still only gets this entry up to a total of 126.95 :eek:

This guy was sporting a 3.7% chance This is most likely the person most truly saved by Vick whose number replaces Garrard's. With Vick at 60.15 he'd get up to 146.85 - possibly safe from the Turk.

-QG
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Eagles D helped the #5 team as well. Niiiiiiiiiiiiiice!

If the 146.85 score makes it, just imagine being the team knocked out because of Vick's insane score. It would be like getting rivered by a two outer after flopping the nuts.
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Very well might be me.
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Congrats Cowboy! (looks like my math (or fantasy star's Vick Math) was 0.5 off. Both you and 3.7% guy made it :) :thumbup: -QG

 
Made the cut by a point.... thank you Eagles D! I still can't believe Cooley and Santana Moss both tanked in that shootout last night!

After that scary cut, may have to make some sacrificies to the almighty Turk. :rolleyes:

 
18 - 334 (remain) of 5416, 6.17% ytd, 63.98% wk 10

19 - 186 of 1905, 9.76%, 65.49%

20 - 153 of 1338, 11.43%, 66.23%

21 - 122 of 961, 12.70%, 65.95%

22 - 123 of 799, 15.39%, 66.13%

23 - 133 of 615, 21.63%, 72.68%

24 - 106 of 491, 21.59%, 73.10%

25 - 109 of 402, 27.11%, 80.15%

26 - 85 of 308, 27.60%, 75.89%

27 - 74 of 233, 31.76%, 78.72%

28 - 49 of 180, 27.22%, 71.01%

29 - 43 of 142, 30.28%, 78.18%

30 - 95 of 271, 35.06%, 83.33%

Are the "junk" entires gone yet?

 
Congrats to the 1600 other owners who made it through the bye weeks! Sadly, only 15% of us remaining will still be standing come week 14. Good luck in the upcoming high percentage cut weeks! If there was a time for some big days by your players, now is the time, since the 140's or 150's probably won't be high enough in some of the upcoming weeks to survive.

The huge Brady day saved my bacon this week...

Ironically, that Vick night would have probably setup who ever had Vick if scored in the final 3 weeks as probably the only teams able to win. Most points scored by one player that I can recall. That would have been a huge advantage in the final 3 weeks. All by a $3 player...

 
BassNBrew said:
18 - 334 (remain) of 5416, 6.17% ytd, 63.98% wk 1019 - 186 of 1905, 9.76%, 65.49%20 - 153 of 1338, 11.43%, 66.23%21 - 122 of 961, 12.70%, 65.95%22 - 123 of 799, 15.39%, 66.13%23 - 133 of 615, 21.63%, 72.68%24 - 106 of 491, 21.59%, 73.10%25 - 109 of 402, 27.11%, 80.15%26 - 85 of 308, 27.60%, 75.89%27 - 74 of 233, 31.76%, 78.72%28 - 49 of 180, 27.22%, 71.01%29 - 43 of 142, 30.28%, 78.18%30 - 95 of 271, 35.06%, 83.33%Are the "junk" entires gone yet?
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FBG Staff Survival Rate 47.83%Staff Standings:
Code: 
1800.85	Jeff Tefertiller (Out Wk 10)1764.8	Keith Overton1744.7	Jason Wood1740.15	Jen Maki1732.8	Jene Bramel1723.25	Matt Waldman1721.25	David Yudkin1718.9	Jeff Pasquino (Out Wk 2)1677.35	Andy Hicks1676.75	Joe Bryant1651.1	Bruce Henderson (Out Wk 8)1644	Aaron Rudnicki (Out Wk 9)1622.05	David Dodds (Out Wk 10)1621.15	Bob Henry (Out Wk 4)1614.4	Anthony Borbely1604.9	Andrew Garda1581.85	Sigmund Bloom1575	Larry Thomas (Out Wk 5)1557.35	Jeff Haseley (Out Wk 10)1508.05	Will Grant (Out Wk 6)1478.05	Mark Wimer (Out Wk 3)1445.9	Maurile Tremblay (Out Wk 5)1378.6	Doug Drinen (Out Wk 2)
 
Modog814 said:
My Prediction for this week in terms of breakdown by roster size:

Code: 
Size	Predicted	ACTUAL	Current	Pred Rate	Act.Rate18	311	334	521	59.69%	64.11%19	183	186	284	64.44%	65.49%20	154	153	230	66.96%	66.52%21	132	122	184	71.74%	66.30%22	124	123	185	67.03%	66.49%23	130	133	180	72.22%	73.89%24	115	106	145	79.31%	73.10%25	101	108	134	75.37%	80.60%26	88	85	111	79.28%	76.58%27	70	74	94	74.47%	78.72%28	51	49	69	73.91%	71.01%29	43	43	54	79.63%	79.63%30	98	95	111	88.29%	85.59%
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Eh not too bad (keep in mind Actual includes Staff and ties, while predicted excludes staff and assumes only 1600 would make it through). Close enough that I feel comfortable running the next couple weeks and coming up with power rankings and the expected Top 250.
 
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Based solely on the survival percentage, DeWayne Jarrett is the 4th best player to have in this contest.

 
BassNBrew said:
18 - 334 (remain) of 5416, 6.17% ytd, 63.98% wk 1019 - 186 of 1905, 9.76%, 65.49%20 - 153 of 1338, 11.43%, 66.23%21 - 122 of 961, 12.70%, 65.95%22 - 123 of 799, 15.39%, 66.13%23 - 133 of 615, 21.63%, 72.68%24 - 106 of 491, 21.59%, 73.10%25 - 109 of 402, 27.11%, 80.15%26 - 85 of 308, 27.60%, 75.89%27 - 74 of 233, 31.76%, 78.72%28 - 49 of 180, 27.22%, 71.01%29 - 43 of 142, 30.28%, 78.18%30 - 95 of 271, 35.06%, 83.33%Are the "junk" entires gone yet?
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Any chance you have the average points put forward by the live rosters? I would be curious which roster count is scoring the most based on average.
 
Glad I didn't submit my original set of picks afterall, even though its 29 man roster generally beat my 25 man final submission most weeks. Would have missed the cut by about 10 points, due to being too thin at RB this week.

I really hope the contest stays about the same next year, I think the way it is set up now is about as close to perfect as you're gonna get!

 
ctriopelle said:
Glad I didn't submit my original set of picks afterall, even though its 29 man roster generally beat my 25 man final submission most weeks. Would have missed the cut by about 10 points, due to being too thin at RB this week.I really hope the contest stays about the same next year, I think the way it is set up now is about as close to perfect as you're gonna get!
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I have a feeling that with it kind of showing that larger rosters are he way to go (survive) and the thought that most who enter next year will go the larger roster route.........that there may be some tweeks by the powers that be that somehow try to even it out to where there may be some benefit to going with a smaller roster.....not sure how they would do it, but it may be something to think about.......
 
WisWolvrns said:
Ironically, that Vick night would have probably setup who ever had Vick if scored in the final 3 weeks as probably the only teams able to win. Most points scored by one player that I can recall. That would have been a huge advantage in the final 3 weeks. All by a $3 player...
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Let's not get carried away. Yes, it would have been nice to have those points, but "the only teams able to win"? He only scored 13 points more than Cassel, 19 more than Brady and less than 25 more than Orton and Big Ben. Hardly an insurmountable lead.ETA: In fact, although the top 3 teams this week had Vick, teams 4-9 didn't, and they're only 10-17 points behind team #1. That's not much to overcome with two weeks to do it.
 
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Stinkin Ref said:
I have a feeling that with it kind of showing that larger rosters are he way to go (survive) and the thought that most who enter next year will go the larger roster route.........that there may be some tweeks by the powers that be that somehow try to even it out to where there may be some benefit to going with a smaller roster.....not sure how they would do it, but it may be something to think about.......
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It was shown last year that larger rosters are the way to go and this year almost everyone went small roster.
 
Stinkin Ref said:
ctriopelle said:
Glad I didn't submit my original set of picks afterall, even though its 29 man roster generally beat my 25 man final submission most weeks. Would have missed the cut by about 10 points, due to being too thin at RB this week.I really hope the contest stays about the same next year, I think the way it is set up now is about as close to perfect as you're gonna get!
Click to expand...
I have a feeling that with it kind of showing that larger rosters are he way to go (survive) and the thought that most who enter next year will go the larger roster route.........that there may be some tweeks by the powers that be that somehow try to even it out to where there may be some benefit to going with a smaller roster.....not sure how they would do it, but it may be something to think about.......
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Most of the entrants don't read this thread. If they did, everyone would have 4 TEs, 3 Ks, 3 Ds, and no one would have 18 man rosters. Next year, a lot of people will make the same mistakes.
 
How many "no reds" does your team have?

In other words, how many players on your team haven't counted yet in your weekly score?

I have 2 - Fred Taylor & Derek Anderson

 
Spiller, Washington, Scott, Choice, Stroughter, Succup -- have all not counted for me yet. So really my 30 man roster could have been a 24 man roster. But my strategy going in was to take alot of guys and hope half of them pan out and that they all stay healthy.

Tolbert, M.Williams, Bess, Murphy, Branch, Gronkowski have all panned out so far.

 
texasheat said:
How many "no reds" does your team have?In other words, how many players on your team haven't counted yet in your weekly score?I have 2 - Fred Taylor & Derek Anderson
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One - Tashard ChoiceThrough 10 Weeks:QB - E Manning 6, Roethlisberger 2, Bradford 2RB - Gore 8, Foster 8, R Brown 4, Spiller 1, Choice 0WR - C Johnson 7, Welker 6, Tampa Mike 6, Garcon 4, Clayton :popcorn: 4, Murphy 3, Shipley 3, Camarillo 2TE - Hernandez 7, Z Miller 5, Gronk 2K - Bryant 4, Lindell 3, Hanson 3D - Raiders 4, Lions 3, 49ers 3
 
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With Derek Anderson counting this week, I'm down to one guy who hasn't counted yet this year: Bernard Scott. I still think there's a reasonable chance that could change in the near future given the team's 2-7 record.

QBs: Rivers 8, Stafford 1, Anderson 1

RBs: ADP 9, Foster 8, T Jones 5, L Washgton 1, Spiller 1, B Scott 0

WRs: Gaffney 8, Calvin Johnson 7, Mike Williams 6, Branch 5, L Murphy 2, Berrian 1, L Robinson 1, H Douglas 1

TEs: Winslow 5, Fasano 5, Gresham 5

PKs: Janikowski 4, Bironas 3, Bryant 3

Defs: Chicago 5, Detroit 3, Tampa Bay 2

Clearly the diversity has helped out at TE, PK, and Def. I've managed to get by with what can generously be called shaky RB and WR depth. I have a bad feeling that this crew is going to fall just short of the promised land :scared:

-QG

 
texasheat said:
How many "no reds" does your team have?In other words, how many players on your team haven't counted yet in your weekly score?
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I have 4 "no reds" that cost a total of $31. Derek Anderson, CJ Spiller, Brian Robiskie, and Dwayne Jarrett have not counted for me as of yet. I have a 25 man roster, but only 21 have contributed. Of the 4 that have been pine riders, CJ Spiller is my biggest lemon since he cost me $17 :scared: . My best value purchase has been Tolbert for $1. He has counted for me 5 times thus far.
 
texasheat said:
How many "no reds" does your team have?

In other words, how many players on your team haven't counted yet in your weekly score?

I have 2 - Fred Taylor & Derek Anderson
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I have one on my 19 man roster. That player is Larry Johnsonlink to team

Since I have LJ on a 19 man roster does that mean I have an 18 man roster?

 
I've used everyone on my 19 man roster at least once. What's interesting though, is that I would have made the cut each week without six of those guys, saving me $24 to use elsewhere.

D. Anderson, LaRon McLain, Louis Murphy, Greg Camarillo, Joe Nedney and San Fran's D have all been used, but none of them (even all of them combined) were the difference in me making the cut or not.

So, the reality is, I would be alive today even if I only had a 13 man roster (and one of those is Finley who hasn't been used since week 4).

 
Team #101021

Haven't used: Leon Washington, Eric Decker and Ryan Longwell.

Used Once: Fred Taylor, Laurent Robinson, Daniel Graham

My team is terrible on paper. I'm a realist. I'm happy to still be in the game, especially with Finley out.

Christmas Wish: Decker gets healthy and becomes Orton's go-to Red Zone target.

 
There has been a Chris Chambers sighting this week!

Used that $7 for the first time. One of 39 CC owners hoping he might be finally finding his way back onto the field.

 
Leon Washington is the only player i haven't used yet. Here is my breakdown so far:

Rivers-6, Palmer-4

S.Jackson-8, A.Bradshaw-8, A.Foster-8, L.Washington-0

S.Smithc(car)-6, Welker-7, McCluster-4, Berrian-2, L.Robinson-3, L.Murphy-3

Witten-6, Z.Miller(oak)-5, Winslow-4

Folk-2, Janikowski-5, Bryant-3

49er's-4, Dolphins-4, Saints-2

 
Saint said:
Any chance you have the average points put forward by the live rosters? I would be curious which roster count is scoring the most based on average.
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Small rosters are catching up...
Code: 
Size	Alive	AvgScore18	334	168.3519	186	168.1820	153	168.7321	122	170.0122	123	171.0723	133	169.4924	106	169.9125	109	171.3026	 85	170.3527	 74	170.2828	 49	171.5929	 43	169.1330	 95	172.44
 
No Reds. Not even C.J. Spiller even though his two reds totalled less than 10 points. This is one of the big advantages of a 19 man roster :thumbup:

 
A 25 man team which didn't use 9 of its players who represented $96 of the total salary. The right selection isn't dependent on the size of the roster. However, John Wanamaker (a famous retailer from Philadelphia) once said that half of his advertising budget was waste, but he didn't know which half.

 
Looking at total scores from weeks 1-10:

This guy is the lowest-scoring team still alive, with 1479.35 YTD points.

This guy is the second-highest scoring team overall, with 1917.00 points YTD. Alas, he missed the cut this week with no QB. (This guy is #1 overall with 1954.05 points.)

This guy is the lowest-scoring out of all 13,061 teams, with 878.50 points. :shrug:

 
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