I think Washington has a letdown, but I also think the Falcons are also just a better team, without Cousins holding them back. Cousins played 3 great games (TB, Dal, TB) and 1 great drive against Philly in week 2, beyond that, he's been a liability. I don't know how good Penix is (I personally had him QB6 in this year's class) but he gives the Falcons upside that Cousins didn't.
I think Atlanta can run on anyone. Tyler Allgeier would start on half the teams in the NFL, and Bijan is probably right there with guys like Henry/Barkley, he just splits more work. I also think the PA game to London and Mooney should be great against Washington's below average secondary.
I think the Commanders fall behind early, and are unable to run the ball (except with Daniels) and the Falcons need this game to make the playoffs.
Bold call maybe, but I think the Falcons win big
Falcons-34
Commanders-13