Capella
Footballguy
Bucs offensive line is truly excellent. But yea if GB gets to Brady a bunch it’s hard to see the Bucs winning.
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Tampa Bay vs Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game...Brady vs Rodgers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
If Brady and the Bucs win Sunday, then Tom will have the same number of NFC Championship rings as Brees and Rodgers.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not that Brady needs much to boost his mystique and folklore, but a TB win would yield the Bucs a home game in the Super Bowl. Certainly we are light years away from the following happening, but the planets could be aligning for Brady to slay Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes in a row to win a 7th ring. I am guessing that would be the greatest group of QBs to have to go through to win a title. That being said, I envision a GB / BUF Super Bowl.
Of course, if the Packers and Bills did meet in the SB, that would ensure that a team that scored 500 points won the title (which rarely happens). Of the 23 teams before this year to score 500 points in a season, only 4 of them became SB champs.
2019: BAL (No)
2018: KCC, LAR, NOS (No)
2016: ATL (No)
2015: CAR (No)
2013: DEN (No)
2012: NEP (No)
2011: GBP, NOS, NEP (No)
2010: NEP (No)
2009: NOS (Yes)
2007: NEP (No)
2004: IND (No)
2001: STL (No)
2000: STL (No)
1999: STL (Yes)
1998: MIN (No), DEN (Yes)
1994: SFO (Yes)
1984: MIA (No)
1983: WAS (No)
Of course, if the Packers and Bills did meet in the SB, that would ensure that a team that scored 500 points won the title (which rarely happens). Of the 23 teams before this year to score 500 points in a season, only 4 of them became SB champs.
2019: BAL (No)
2018: KCC, LAR, NOS (No)
2016: ATL (No)
2015: CAR (No)
2013: DEN (No)
2012: NEP (No)
2011: GBP, NOS, NEP (No)
2010: NEP (No)
2009: NOS (Yes)
2007: NEP (No)
2004: IND (No)
2001: STL (No)
2000: STL (No)
1999: STL (Yes)
1998: MIN (No), DEN (Yes)
1994: SFO (Yes)
1984: MIA (No)
1983: WAS (No)
grateful zed
Footballguy
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
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Mr.Pack
Footballguy
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm not sure Mr Smith is excellent and I think Jensen is more bark than bite. Whirfs has been terrific and the pair of Gaurds, Marpet and Cappa like to run the football. Jensen IMO works well with those two on the running game, if the Bucs can get 85% RoJo and a good showing of Fournette...the numbers start climbing(% chance of Bucs winning) in my mind the more the Bucs can run the football. Forget Brady and the Receivers, they will connect along the way, but the sooner the Bucs can start moving it on the ground the better. I would like to see more imagination than Fournette up the middle on 1st Down.
On a side note...the kid got his jersey shipped overnight today from the NFL Shop, Vapor Edition-Brady so he can rock out on Sunday and hopefully if things go right then he will be at my house for the Super Bowl. Well he's coming regardless but it would just be a little sweeter. We've already gotten to enjoy the Stanley Cup, the World Series(Game 6 hurt) Heat in the Finals and this would really be the icing on the cake and while you can't erase 20 years of horrible Phins memories vs Brady, what a gift on his way out for a few of us who have some roots in the Bay area as well.
Gonna be an awesome game Sunday no matter what, the fact there might be rain/snow, get that running game going.
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Capella
Footballguy
Jensen is the best center in the league, top-3 at worst. Smith probably top-15 or 16 LT, Wirfs top-3 RT, Marpet top-3 LG. Hard to get a better line.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm not married to PFF but it ranked Jensen firmly in the middle at something like 18th/37 and Smith is more in the middle as well. Buce offense ranks 28th in rush yds but 29th in rush attempts so that plays a factor, also rank 25th in terms of yds per attempt so they are not a stout running team all the time.
It would be wise in late January in Green Bay to pack their running game is all I'm saying. I can see a scenario where weather impacts the passing game and they suddenly are not able to run as well, that's going to be problems.
I would not oversell the Bucs OL is terms of running the football.
Bucs rank 2nd in the NFL TD passes and Pass Yds, they show their merit in the passing game IMHO, they gotta take shots down the field and they are going to connect on some of these. Packers Secondary IMO is not the best.
-Alexander and Amos cannot cover everyone, obviously King and Jackson are the other starting Corners in Green Bay and they rank 85th and like 95th out of 120 ranked Corners on PFF, no way they can play man to man like the Saints did last week. I feel the Bucs will need to find those mis matches and exploit them which I believe Brady and Arians will have a bag of goodies and plays for that. Once they stretch them I think the lanes will open up more in the 2nd Half for the running game. I like how they sent RoJo in more in the 2nd Half fresh, might not be able to mirror that this week as easily.
I agree with you that the OL is solid. I like both interior Guards but Whirfs is still a rookie in his first NFCC, we can't be naive. I'm glad you have confidence.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Weather: Dropping into the single digits next night or two. On Sunday it is going to warm up to about 28 before kick off and the snow/showers are on track to fall before Noon, kickoff I think is 3:00 Eastern...still early.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That was the best part of your post
He slayed Chase Young, Brees, Rodgers potentially next, sure a SB win would be icing on the cake but it seems for sure he will return next season for one more round...it would be really hard not to walk away if he does it exactly like you are saying...I cannot imagine what would be left to prove. I have been a Brady hater for a long time but I am not naive to what he has accomplished and where he is going to be ranked. A lot of folks could get away with saying system guy but if he does this, it would finally silence any critics. To see where the Patriots are right now vs where Brady has elevated the Bucs, he's winning the Brady vs Belichick war so far.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Coaching: I will not in any way slight LaFleur who has already shown he is a better coach than his predecessor IMHO despite having no ring yet. That said it should be noted that Bruce Arians has 2 Super Bowl rings as the Offensive Coordinator for Pittsburgh, believe both with Big Ben so he has been thru these doors before and come out the other side about as close to being the Head Coach as possible without the job title. I do not believe the Bucs will be out coached and then you have Todd Bowles who is possibly gunning for another head coaching opportunity. When you see Urban Meyer getting $12 Million you gotta be licking your chops if you are Todd Bowles. I think he is better suited as a DC and should possibly be one of the first assistant head coaches to be paid MORE than his head coach...that's hard to understand but perhaps we need to be paying OC/DC in certain instances MORE and especially if they are part of a SB winning staff.
I cannot beat up or commit verbal battery on Urban Meyer enough.
I cannot beat up or commit verbal battery on Urban Meyer enough.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
As I hypothesized, Brady could beat Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes on the way to his 7th title. Here were the other notable runs where a QB beat 3 would be / potential HOFers on the way to a ring:That was the best part of your post
He slayed Chase Young, Brees, Rodgers potentially next, sure a SB win would be icing on the cake but it seems for sure he will return next season for one more round...it would be really hard not to walk away if he does it exactly like you are saying...I cannot imagine what would be left to prove. I have been a Brady hater for a long time but I am not naive to what he has accomplished and where he is going to be ranked. A lot of folks could get away with saying system guy but if he does this, it would finally silence any critics. To see where the Patriots are right now vs where Brady has elevated the Bucs, he's winning the Brady vs Belichick war so far.
2011: Eli Manning - Matt Ryan (he's at least in the conversation for HOF), Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady
2009: Drew Brees - Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning
1993: Troy Aikman - Brett Favre, Steve Young, Jim Kelly
As far as the TB / NE debates go, I am not as impressed as some people are with how things played out in TB. With the personnel improvements the Bucs made this year on both sides of the ball, they should have had a good record based on their overall talent. Had Winston stayed around, there was nothing in his career history to indicate he would have thrown 30 INTs again. IMO, the Bucs would have had a similar record with Winston as Brady did had they added Brown, Gronk, Fournette, etc. (to go along with Evans and Godwin). Of course, with Winston, they wouldn't have been able to add those guys, so there's that. Against the Saints, the TB defense was the story. The offense didn't do much and their scoring drives were all from turnovers and very short fields to get into the red zone. Granted, it's a team game and the Bucs are still alive. But if the offense has a similar performance, they won't win two more games.
IMO, NE would have been just as bad this year with Brady as they were without him. Remember, the Pats had 8 guys opt out, had multiple key injuries, and had players with COVID issues. Brady throwing to Meyers, Byrd, and no TEs and no Edelman would have been an unmitigated disaster (as Brady blew his top last year due to no weapons). Brady leaving and the AB fiasco cost them over $20 million in dead cap space. Compared to 2020, NE has a lot more cap room to play with and a decent amount of draft capital to improve next year. They won't be great but they should be better than this past year.
Bottom line, TB had a better and more talented team this year than NE did. That almost always results in the more talented team having a better record. On a side note, I saw yesterday that a sports book had the Patriots with worse odds to win the SB next year than Jacksonville. That's crazy to me.
Capella
Footballguy
lol you’ve been bashing Brady since he left NE, said it wouldn’t work out, his arm was shot, Belichick would be proven right etc.
Glad you’re sticking to it and doubling down I guess but you’re still incredibly wrong. This Bucs team would have been nowhere near this game with Winston or any other QB they could have signed. Brady has been a godsend.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'm rooting for the first Super Bowl with a home team.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
At the time I first suggested Brady would struggle some, that was before they added Gronk, Brown, and Fournette. The offense did struggle some to start the season but clicked faster than I thought they would. Brady and Gronk also stayed healthy, which was something they hadn't done in a few years. Collectively, they did better than they I thought they would. Playing with three former All Pro WR and a former All Pro TE certainly helped.
Which depth chart would you rather have had this season?
RB: Jones, Fournette, Vaughn, McCoy
WR: Evans, Godwin, Brown, Miller, Johnson
TE: Gronk, Brate, Howard
- OR -
RB: Harris (6 games on IR), Michel (7 games on IR), White (out 2 games with parents in accident), Burkhead (6 games on IR)
WR: Edelman (10 games on IR), Harry (out 2 games and hampered in others), Meyers (out 2 games and hampered in others), Lee (opted out), Byrd, Olszewski
TE: Izzo (4 games on IR), Keene (10 games on IR), Asiasi (7 games on IR)
Obviously Brady did a better job protecting the football and the Bucs did not allow anywhere near as many gift TDs to opposing defenses. But the TB defense did play much better (we can debate how much Brady had a hand in that). In 2019, with their defense on the field (ie, eliminating points allowed by the offense), the Bucs defense allowed 395 points. In 2020, again eliminating points scored when the defense was not on the field, they only allowed 334 points. Game conditions from week to week were certainly different, but the TB offense had fewer yards in 2021 (5503 compared to 5234). Again, it's different when you are leading and trying to run clock vs. being behind and having to pass the entire game, so that difference is probably insignificant.
Hats off to the Bucs. They had a good season. It could still turn into a magical, phenomenal season.
strykerpks
Footballguy
Side note, RIP Ted Thompson. Dude made the Packers what they are today....a perennial contender.
Very sad day for Packer fans.
Very sad day for Packer fans.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Upper 20's and snow will not negatively impact the passing game, and in some respects gives route-runners an advantage. The problem will be if it gets a few degrees warmer, into the cold wet snow/rain/slush territory. Its hard to do anything in that weather where the game can become a dogfight in the mud.Ministry of Pain said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We got a mud dog or two on this team the least of which Leonard Fournette, speed is not a factor here. You all got a great back in Jones, not sure if Dillon can go or not but I liked him coming out of school. And then there is the TEs, Tonyan or MR-TD such a red zone target the Bucs better be ready. On our side, Gronk is a shell of his old self but Brate has been pretty handy lately and the combo gives teams trouble. Wish we still had Howard.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I thought how in the world can he argue a 30-Int back up QB but he did. You cannot measure the leadership in the locker room, off the field, daily meetings leading up to game day, the intangibles go on and on.Capella said:
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
SighAnarchy99 said:
David, we should try to keep\move these types of posts to the Brady bust thread. You are consistent in your down playing\criticism of Bradys play and impact; however you aren't real consistent with various criteria.
Earlier it was Brady transition to Bucs will be harder struggle than many realize, in April it was no real difference between Brady and his declining skill set and Jacoby Brissette. Now itis implying Bucs would be playing in the NFCCC even if Winston was their QB (oy). Winstons 2018 3.7%, 2020 4.8% int rates aren't that far apart. Yes the Bucs def is better but having an offense that doesn't turn the ball over helps quite a bit. The impact of Brady far out weighs the impact of Brown, Fournette & Gronk, yes yes anybody but brady.
You now point out (correctly) that NE is talent challenged, but previously made the argument they could have been better if Brady hadn't become lazy with a bad attitude and his skills hadn't declined so much. Mind you that was after a yr when the offense scored 420 points and the team won 12 games (vs 326 and 7 wins this yr). I think one could argue NE had better offensive weapons in 2020 than 2019 except at qb. You and I were both optimistic in the spring that NE would stay healthier this yr and could be decent on offense. But you put way too much of the blame on brady for 2019 when I called it the chicken crap around him it has now been proven to be.
The man was second (tied) in the lg in TD passes and I would like for you to put down the shovel and say you were dead wrong about Brady's declining skill set. Instead I hear stuff like, well he didn't do anything in the win vs no and they won't win 2 more games if the offense plays like that again (3 tds, no turnovers) or hats off to the bucs they had a good season. Every fan wants his team to go to and win the SB and I wasn't a bucs fan until this yr, but I would guess having not gone to an NFCCC in almost 20 years Bucs fans would already consider it a great season. Lets do everyone a favor and move this to the bust thread and not pollute the game thread
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
It was all a good post but I am not trying to shame David personally and while it's transparent even though I have not followed the Brady threads the same as you all I get the consensus on this.
That part I bolded lands the plane and there just is no getting around the fact that Brady can still get it done with weapons around him and had New England replaced Moss with something similar or established that they possibly could have kept repeating on offense as they were during that period mind you though no Lombardis, 2 trips, that era. Bravo, good post.
Capella
Footballguy
The Bucs had most of those players in the off-season when you said he wouldn’t work out. Fournette and Brown were replacement level in the regular season (Lf has been great in the playoffs for sure). Gronk and Wirfs have been awesome but there is no point in carrying on with this. Brady has been fantastic and the Bucs were home 4 weeks ago if they kept Jameis instead, period.Anarchy99 said:
the guy delivered a bunch of titles to your franchise that was totally irrelevant before he showed up there. Stop trying to justify that it was the right decision that he left.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
I was wrong. Bill was wrong. He's not infallible. Tom Brady still has it. We took him for granted in New England and he moved on.
Type the words. It's ok.
And lol at Jameis Winston accomplishing the same season as Brady this year. Jameis still leads the league in INTs the last two seasons.
Type the words. It's ok.
And lol at Jameis Winston accomplishing the same season as Brady this year. Jameis still leads the league in INTs the last two seasons.
rzrback77
Footballguy
The point that I think is being missed with Brady is that his attitude is a complete 180 from a year ago. For whatever reasons (supporting weapons is a major one) but Brady wanted out of New England and he wanted out bad. There is no doubt that his competitiveness (which has always been extremely high) was a bit less last year in 2019 and is significantly higher this year. There is an excellent point made on ESPN upcoming game article that the Bucs wins this year came when he was protected better, something like 1.1 per game in wins and 2.2 in losses. Pressure percentage almost double in losses and QBR about 44 compared to 80 something. His weapons this season, his protection this season, his drive and competitiveness this season are all much better than in New England a year ago.
The ability of the TB OL to protect Brady is critical to the Bucs chances to win at Green Bay in the winter weather.
The ability of the TB OL to protect Brady is critical to the Bucs chances to win at Green Bay in the winter weather.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm sort of dreaming reading this last page, I think. The guy who said Belichick must believe in Stidham over Brady only to bench him for the whole year and watch Brady make a championship game isn't trying to take a victory lap about his postings, is he?
OMG. Now that's funny. Glad you're well, Anarchy, but sheesh.
OMG. Now that's funny. Glad you're well, Anarchy, but sheesh.
Capella
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know if you could say he ever said Brady was worse than Stidham, but his posts had a certain glee about moving on from Brady and that Belichick wouldn't be doing it unless he knew he had something in Stidham. He even wrote Newton wouldn't be the starter, then wouldn't be the starter for long, etc.
They were all more nuanced arguments than that, but they were designed to insulate him from ever being called wrong while allowing for him, if there was success by Stidham and Belichick and failure on Brady's part, to be called right.
It was all sorts of logic chasing an argument, an argument that essentially stated that the Patriots have to be good because they had been before and that Anarchy was a really big fan.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
No one posted in the Patriots team thread after Week 5. 
gump
Footballguy
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DallasDMac
Footballguy
He probably shouldn't have been. Cam and his noodle arm were horrendous this year. No idea why they stuck with him.
rockaction
Footballguy
The point of my post wasn't to argue who should have started, it was the Patriots thought process. Anarchy argued, to a degree, that they must know something about Stidham because Belichick is a great evaluator and the moves wouldn't make sense otherwise. We now know this was wrong. What was going on was that Stidham was that bad in practice and that Belichick didn't let Brady walk because he knew what he had or would find out what he had in Stidham. A lot of the talk in the preseason about Brady, if you'll recall, concentrated on what the Patriots had in Stidham. As I -- and others -- noted at the time, that seemed far-fetched, and that they didn't even look at him this year proves they did know what they had. A guy who clearly wasn't ready. QB is not an easy position to evaluate nor is it easy to draft. The Patriots drafted Stidham late and haven't even looked at him yet. That tells you a lot about what they think they have or what they thought they had.
Really, the post was just to point out how Anarchy's take just wasn't correct and our assessment at the time was right.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Vea being active is huge. They’re tough to run on, but if he’s close to full strength it’s nearly impossible. Plus what he brings bench pressing guys into the QBs lap.
Wish AB could play. He’s been Brady’s guy the last few weeks.
Wish AB could play. He’s been Brady’s guy the last few weeks.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wow. Talk about fair weather fans.No one posted in the Patriots team thread after Week 5.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
For better or worse, it seems unlikely we'll see a snow game tomorrow. The snow will fall in Green Bay tonight and into the morning, but will be tapering off after noon local time. There will most likely be very little or no snowfall by kickoff. With temps in the upper 20s, the weather will not be a factor in this game.
I think this Anarchy dude has to be
and he’s now hooked a few. Any minute he’s got to come in here with the “Gotcha!”. Anyone who can’t see that Brady is 100% the difference in Tampa competing in the NFC championship game or missing the playoffs with probably an 8-8 record is in denial.
or fishing.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's worth 3 to the Bucs side I would say. It works both ways though, that means Rodgers can bomb them downfield as well, something they never saw once from Brees the prior week.CletiusMaximus said:
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Capella
Footballguy
No doubt about it, not sure I agree it’s a grand slam for the Bucs necessarily but fair conditions means the game won’t be impacted by the weather and I’m good with that.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I was just texting my cousin in Tampa a picture of his last visit up here. We saw James Winston against Brett Hundley at Lambeau. What a quarterback battle that was. Aaron Jones 20 yard td won that one in overtime.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
LaFleur IMHO dropped it when he faced 4th and Goal, perhaps Rodgers did him no favors by not advancing the ball on 3rd and goal, however he should have foreseen how that might play out and be better prepared. Arians got the ball and made sure he didn't give it back with 2:00 left.
It would seem the coaching at the end of this football game mattered quite a bit. Not many coaches pass on 4th and goal down 8 with about 2:00 left in the game with a Hall of Fame QB throwing the football. Plus you likely pin them deep regardless.
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