Capella
Footballguy
Of course not. He made the right decision. Line got blown up.These are jokes right? No one actually thought he should have kicked a fg on 4th and inches down by 8.
Of course not. He made the right decision. Line got blown up.These are jokes right? No one actually thought he should have kicked a fg on 4th and inches down by 8.
He's lost many games over the years failing to put points on the board. Virtually every year he loses a game that they would have won if he kicked a FG. Whose to say that what the game looks like when they are down 5. Lots of things could have happened differently. Sure it was 4th & inches but here's the deal. Harbug and his revolutionary &analytical game got beat up by old school NFL football and thats what it usually takes in the playoffs.These are jokes right? No one actually thought he should have kicked a fg on 4th and inches down by 8.
Game script and some happenstance was perfect for it. Used a short field off a turnover and penalties for the first score, a fifty yard strike for the second, a sixty yard Henry run to set up the TD for their third score, another twenty or so yard drive for their fourth. Other than that, it was just pounding the ball by Tennessee.Missed the game tonight and just checked out the box score. Damn, Tanny completed just 7 passes? That's an old school win right there.
If I didn't love that meme and think you're one of the smarter and funnier posters on the board, I'd fume. As it is...eh.Dooooonnnnnttt caaaaarrrree
Wow someone really is that dumb. Congrats!He's lost many games over the years failing to put points on the board. Virtually every year he loses a game that they would have won if he kicked a FG. Whose to say that what the game looks like when they are down 5. Lots of things could have happened differently. Sure it was 4th & inches but here's the deal. Harbug and his revolutionary &analytical game got beat up by old school NFL football and thats what it usually takes in the playoffs.
Coach? Play calling? Defense? Receivers?The guy attempted 60 passes and carried the ball 20 times. All other Balt players carried the ball 9 times. Jackson accounted for 90% of all offensive plays. They scored 12pts.
If it's not on him, I have no idea who it could possibly be on.
Boy, those analytics sure failed in their biggest game in years. May want to revisit that harbug because old style NFL football kicked your ###.I think the 66 yard run they gave up to Henry on the subsequent drive might have played a bigger role.
Also, Ravens went like 0/2 on 4th and short, plus the failed 2PC. They just didn't have their short-yardage game going tonighr. Whether that was injuries or play calling, it wasn't there. An extra three points wasn't going to save them.
Stating fact buddy. Sorry you can't comprehend itWow someone really is that dumb. Congrats!
Disagree, my friend. I question the execution, but not the decision.You can't be a slave to either the old football or new analytics. There's a synthesis to be had. eXP and what have you are only going to be worth their weight in quantifying personnel in a vacuum at that particular moment, then giving you a probability. I think we're still using down and distance generalizations to make microcosmal decisions.
He should have kicked the duck to make it 14-9. It's not college out there where you're putting up fifty against the Titans today. Forget it, reset it, and get back in the game. The way they play cost them tonight a few times when field position or points would have been better.
Nothing that you stated is a fact and you’re literally arguing against math by saying it’s better to kick a fg on 4th and inches deep in your opponents territory down by 8.Stating fact buddy. Sorry you can't comprehend it
When it’s clicking its right out of the ‘70s. An awful lot of fun to watch especially King Henry.Missed the game tonight and just checked out the box score. Damn, Tanny completed just 7 passes? That's an old school win right there.
Disagree, my friend. I question the execution, but not the decision.
Baltimore was not winning that game kicking FGs. They had been 8-8 on 4th and 1 this season.
Bottom line is that the Ravens got their butts kicked last night.
Give us a few sentences as to what you believe “analytics” means and how they are used in football. Thanks.Boy, those analytics sure failed in their biggest game in years. May want to revisit that harbug because old style NFL football kicked your ###.
This kind of thinking is stinking thinking. Yes, we want to know what process consistently and viably leads to the most probabilistic success, but we have to admit when we have too many variables to deal with. Forget the term "analytics" for a minute, which is a colloquial expression for all things advanced stats to statistical minutiae. Think, in this particular case, win probability as we understand it. My contention is that the Ravens couldn't possibly know through statistics what they could have known from their eyes. It's the great baseball fight all over again, with even the SABR baseball guys admitting that football has way too many variables for the stats to be anything but a referral notice and interview, not a job.Leaving aside for the moment the people who still don’t seem to understand process > results
Fair enough. That's not in the vacuum. That's a steady point saying, "Hey, I expected their score to be X. Therefore we needed to score Y. Our probability of scoring Y was greater when we went for it."Disagree, my friend. I question the execution, but not the decision.
Baltimore was not winning that game kicking FGs. They had been 8-8 on 4th and 1 this season.
Bottom line is that the Ravens got their butts kicked last night.
It’s only bad process if that sheet is followed in all scenarios without any other factors being considered.Fair enough. That's not in the vacuum. That's a steady point saying, "Hey, I expected their score to be X. Therefore we needed to score Y. Our probability of scoring Y was greater when we went for it."
That kind of thinking I love.
What I don't love? A sheet that tells you down and distance and success rates when normalized for your team against the NFL. I think that's bad process.
Really? They averaged over 5 ypc all season and had converted every (as in, 100%) of their 4th-&-1s on the year.Fair enough. That's not in the vacuum. That's a steady point saying, "Hey, I expected their score to be X. Therefore we needed to score Y. Our probability of scoring Y was greater when we went for it."
That kind of thinking I love.
What I don't love? A sheet that tells you down and distance and success rates when normalized for your team against the NFL. I think that's bad process.
I didn’t like them going for it in their own territory so early in the game. I thought it was an unnecessary risk. Turned out to be the biggest moment of the game as Tennessee scored on the next play and the Ravens never really recovered.Ravens went for it on 4th down all season. Going for it last night was one of the few things they did on offense that wasn’t a departure from what had worked so well to get them to 14-2. Right decision just poor execution
I get what you're saying, but I was having trouble understanding what he was saying. I don't really know what "process>results" means as applied to this case.It’s only bad process if that sheet is followed in all scenarios without any other factors being considered.
Otherwise it’s not “process”. It’s just data used in a decision.
I wasn't really asserting that one particular play cost them the game. I think others were. I was lamenting the decision because I would more properly say it was a faulty decision that decreased their win probability added rather than increased it. I'm more on your side than not, and know Baltimore does this. But I have to disagree with the bolded: Going for it from the 46 and 21 is likely a slavish devotion to numbers not ripe yet, so I can't agree with your last statement.Really? They averaged over 5 ypc all season and had converted every (as in, 100%) of their 4th-&-1s on the year.
The Ravens needed to turn first downs into touchdowns last night. They didn't do that and lost the game. It happens.
The other team has good players/coaches, too. The Titans were better than Baltimore.
I don't think one (or, even a few) play would have made a difference, given the way the game played out. But, more than the failed conversions, the 3rd-&1 when Henry ripped off a 70 yard run was the back-breaker to me.
Subdivisions is a song highlighting the power of Rush.I don’t get it
Their win probability was undoubtedly higher by going for it there on 4th and inches.I get what you're saying, but I was having trouble understanding what he was saying. I don't really know what "process>results" means as applied to this case.
It could mean a host of things. I'd rather wait for clarification on that. I probably should have worded it better, but didn't want to nitpick too much about terms of debate, which maybe we should, as I agree with you and not with that statement, if that makes any sense on my end.
I'd probably wind up agreeing with most of what he was saying, but much like the SABR debates had to give way to the thought that not everything is perfectly and finitely rational in sport.
I wasn't really asserting that one particular play cost them the game. I think others were. I was lamenting the decision because I would more properly say it was a faulty decision that decreased their win probability added rather than increased it. I'm more on your side than not, and know Baltimore does this. But I have to disagree with the bolded: Going for it from the 46 and 21 is likely a slavish devotion to numbers not ripe yet, so I can't agree with your last statement.
That's simply a declarative to which I can't respond.Their win probability was undoubtedly higher by going for it there on 4th and inches.
The gap is large enough that I don’t need to quantify the minute details that may move the expected points up or down a couple tenths. Although I suspect as an extremely efficient rushing offense anything unique to the particular teams in this situation would move the odds in the favor of going for it. Choosing to kick gets you somewhere close to 3 expected points. The PFF win probability calculator cites 4.4 expected points from 1st and 10 at the 17. You’d have to fail about 35% of the time going for it to come out behind in this calculation. 4th and inches is converted at a much higher % than 65%.That's simply a declarative to which I can't respond.
I could say, "their win probability was undoubtedly lower by going for it there on 4th and inches" and we'd have shut off all debate.
What I'm saying is that you can't possibly know what their win probability was given the closeted nature of their own decision-making vis a vis the public, the impossibility of quantifying to a satisfactory level everything but historical non-applicable data, and certainly not popular consensus nor wisdom, however fallible.
All they could have had possible was their seasonal data, and the Titans's seasonal data, from where they made the decision. But it isn't like the Ravens are Tampa Bay here. This is a nascent project they've got going.
To cite authority as argument, which is indeed a fallacy -- but only so long as the reasoning behind it is still faulty: Going for it in your own end and losing a game to Indy was enough to make Belichick never do it again.
LOLGive us a few sentences as to what you believe “analytics” means and how they are used in football. Thanks.
And here we just wound up disagreeing about another declarative.The gap is large enough that I don’t need to quantify the minute details
Ok then you take a crack at it. What circumstances last night do you think were in play that would override a difference in expected points of roughly 1.6? Or do you disagree with that 1.6 number. If so why?And here we just wound up disagreeing about another declarative.
Lol what? Do you think win prob is something people are just making up in their head?That's simply a declarative to which I can't respond.
I could say, "their win probability was undoubtedly lower by going for it there on 4th and inches" and we'd have shut off all debate.
I could answer this with this tone...Lol what? Do you think win prob is something people are just making up in their head?
I don't know why, but I don't feel like having this debate. Their expected points according to NumberFire, the head of whom wrote for Brian Burke's AFA before he moved to ESPN were:Ok then you take a crack at it. What circumstances last night do you think were in play that would override a difference in expected points of roughly 1.6? Or do you disagree with that 1.6 number. If so why?
IIRC aren’t you one of the guys in the politics forum that thinks that the 2016 presidential polls were totally wrong or fake news or whatever?Boy, those analytics sure failed in their biggest game in years. May want to revisit that harbug because old style NFL football kicked your ###.
Not 100% on how to interpret that but I would think the -.42 is showing that the Titans expected points is .42 on the drive starting at their 18 after the stop (-.42 from the Ravens perspective). The change of -3.19 indicates the expected points on 4th and 1 at the 18 was 2.77. That’s my interpretation of what you’ve posted. I don’t know if you can input situations on numberfire but if so input what the Ravens expected points would be had they gotten the first down. Probably a number close to 4.4. Now calculate the odds of a 4th and inches converting. It’s a very high%. You kick a fg from 35 yards you’re expected 2.57 points. Probably play that number up some for Tucker. Again 4.4 times Qb sneak conversion rate > 2.whatever.I don't know why, but I don't feel like having this debate. Their expected points according to NumberFire, the head of whom wrote for Brian Burke's AFA before he moved to ESPN were:
Downs
10:02 Q3 - 4th and 1 • BAL ball on TEN 18
8-L.Jackson to TEN 18 for no gain (58-H.Landry).
WP: 30.16% -14.86%
EP: -0.42 -3.19
I'm assuming the EP is before and post snap. Talk about negatives. Talk about tenths.
Of course, I'm not saying the rest of the team is blameless... but when you said "It definitely isn't on him" it sounded like you were inferring he played well and his teammates were to blame. On just the 3 turnovers alone they were pretty much all his fault.Coach? Play calling? Defense? Receivers?
He takes a share, but he had no help.
The analytics didn't fail, the execution did.Boy, those analytics sure failed in their biggest game in years. May want to revisit that harbug because old style NFL football kicked your ###.
Right. Or it’s as simple as Phil Ivey pushing all in pre flop with AA and losing to Hellmuth’s 9s10s b/c Phil had a gut feeling.The analytics didn't fail, the execution did.
you can make stats say anythingThe analytics didn't fail, the execution did.
Here’s the thing about this argument - context matters.I’m in the camp that both 4th down calls were the right play. It’s a shame that such overwhelming odds in their favor didn’t work out.
Could you imagine the criticism had the Ravens been conservative in those situations and still lost? Harbaugh and the Ravens would be lambasted today for deviating from what worked ALL season. Sometimes the other team is just better on that day nothing more. That's what happened last night and props to the Titans for that.Ravens went for it on 4th down all season. Going for it last night was one of the few things they did on offense that wasn’t a departure from what had worked so well to get them to 14-2. Right decision just poor execution
Every word of this.Could you imagine the criticism had the Ravens been conservative in those situations and still lost? Harbaugh and the Ravens would be lambasted today for deviating from what worked ALL season. Sometimes the other team is just better on that day nothing more. That's what happened last night and props to the Titans for that.
Here's the thing about context - the Ravens weren't winning that game kicking FGs.Here’s the thing about this argument - context matters.
Speaking of context, the rest of my post agreed with this. Maybe you should have quoted more than the 1st sentence. I also explained in part why they didn’t work, and why that may have changed the decision.Here's the thing about context - the Ravens weren't winning that game kicking FGs.
That's not hindsight on my part. You could (or, at least, I could) feel that they weren't right and that Tennessee was firing while watching the game. Baltimore needed to do something to tip the scales and they made a couple of calls that had worked 100% of the time during the season. They didn't work.
We'll just disagree here. Although I didn't see them all on tv (stupid power outage).Of course, I'm not saying the rest of the team is blameless... but when you said "It definitely isn't on him" it sounded like you were inferring he played well and his teammates were to blame. On just the 3 turnovers alone they were pretty much all his fault.
Yes, the QB can only do so much, but accumulation of stats doesn't count for much in real football. I'll reference a stat I posted in the LJ thread, but his 31.7 QBR in this game qualifies him for 2nd worst of all QB performances in the postseason thus far. That's worse than Cousins, Allen, etc... only McCown was worse. So no, he didn't play well at all.We'll just disagree here. Although I didn't see them all on tv (stupid power outage).
The QB can only do so much. Of the plays I did get to see, receivers didn't make easy catches, the line didn't hold up.
Ingram clearly wasn't 100%, but when your QB runs for 143, throws 365, your receivers don't make key plays and your defense fails, I'm not putting much of the blame on Lamar. Someone else needs to help.