The RB position is essentially worthless (1 Viewer)

[AcerFC]

This is the first year in 5 that I did not go WR-WR. My league mates were astonished. Heck, one year I took 5 WRs in a row because that is where the value was.

So I went Lynch-CJ in 1-2.

Unbelievably, thanks to a thread in here, I traded those guys and somehow am up 61 right now in championship.

I will never, ever, ever draft a RB before round 5 ever again. I will take a QB before a RB.

 

[BobbyLayne]

This is the first year in 5 that I did not go WR-WR. My league mates were astonished. Heck, one year I took 5 WRs in a row because that is where the value was.

So I went Lynch-CJ in 1-2.

Unbelievably, thanks to a thread in here, I traded those guys and somehow am up 61 right now in championship.

I will never, ever, ever draft a RB before round 5 ever again. I will take a QB before a RB.

This is me. Last 3 years I have drafted 5 WRs and 1 RB in the first 2 rounds. Typically my first 10 rounds are 6 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 QB and 1 TE (usually a top 5 guy in round 4 or 5.) I've finished 1st / 2nd / 1st since I stopped chasing stud RBs.

I don't even do upside down drafting and load up on running backs in the back half. ####ers come off the street and put up 15-25 FF points and they weren't the August handcuff anyways.

The NFL does not value RBs. Neither should you. But finding 3-4 solid PPR machine WRs, that's gold.

 

[MattFancy]

For those people saying handcuff, the only guy i listed who was a handcuff to start the season was dwill

Yup.

These were most of the consensus handcuffs to start the year:

Ingram/Spiller/Robinson

Randle/McFadden

Murray/Mathews

Charles/Davis

Forsett/Taliaferro

Lynch/Jackson

Bell/Williams

Blount/Lewis

Lacy/Starks

Crowell/Johnson

Johnson/Ellington

A good bunch of those didn't end up holding true as the season went on, or as the handcuffs themselves got hurt.

While it doesn't change the overall point, the shark pool was sharper on a lot of these than the "general consensus" you reference.

We knew DJohnson and Allen would push for backup roles and even potential starting time. We knew to be wary of KDavis. And Rawls was being touted here early in the preseason as a likely Lynch replacement should he go down.

So it was possible to grab a better aet of handcuffs than that with good intel, but still an unprecedented number of teams having to go to their 2nd, 3rd and 4th options.

Sure, there were people who pegged some of those. But my point was that even guys who thought of as the go-to handcuff didn't work out. I don't think anyone assumed CJ Spiller would be left for dead after Khiry Robson and Mark Ingram both got hurt this year. I don't think alot of people were clamoring for Spencer Ware early in the season.

There were just so many injuries this year that handcuffing only went so far. Now, I don't think that will be the norm going forward, but it was hard this year to just say you should have handcuffed your RBs.

 

[cubbie5150]

Lost to a roster that had Gillislee and Powell yesterday.....of course we had these guys in our TOP40 pre season....RB has become the most frustrating position to draft and try and figure out.

Losing to Gillislee would be hard to me to stomach. Talk about a dart throw. A wish and a prayer. An "expect the worst and hope for the best" scenario.

Let me just add....50yds or greater and its a double TD. So that was a 17 point play....

Sorry, don't mean to derail, but stupid-### scoring like this annoys the hell out of me. It's random, arbitrary & ridiculous, IMO. /endrant

 

[Breesisdaman]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

Like Adrian Peterson.

 

[Da Gildz]

Anyone claiming that they saw Rawls/West/Hightower/Langford/Allen/D Will as anything more then late round dart throws/ FA prayer pickups, well they're just flat out lying.

For every one of these guys I'll introduce Duke J/ David Cobb/ Knile Davis/ Andre Will / Artis Payne/ Turbin/ Dan Herron/Brandon Oliver/ Khiry Rob/ etc etc

The waiver wire has never been and likely won't ever be more prominent then it was in 2015. Let's not revise history here. This year was straight up chaos. Tim Hightower and Deangelo rode people to titles. They likely won't be picked in the top 8 rds of next year's draft.

2015.

 

[Jed]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

Like Adrian Peterson.

He named 7, you named 1. /thread

 

[bjabrad]

RBBC is rampant. RB injuries is rampant. The good news is that the backup RB typically gets the production when the lead RB goes down. Not true for WR's. When the stud WR goes down their targets get spread around and not just to the backup WR. So stock up on stud WR's and stud QB's and try to survive the RB situation. I'm also not a fan of stocking up on handcuffs. Just replace RB as needed rather than loading up the roster with handcuff lottery picks that are too random to pay off.

 

[theplayer11]

or get with the times and switch to start 1 RB

we start 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

next year we may switch to start 2 WR 1 RB 1 W/R 1 W/R/TE 1 TE

the league does not value RBs why should FF?

we go with 3 rbs in ppr and I find it a lot more interesting. Brings value to more players which is a good thing.

I would never play in a 1 rb league..boring imo

 

[BigDave]

Agree that they are devalued based on it being a WR/QB passing league.

The RBBC sucks on most all teams, because you are not guaranteed touches there.

Versatile pass catching RB's have become just 3rd down specialists most games.

In regards to getting backups, it's not easy. If you are leading your league, you have to wait in line for waivers.

Unless your leagues have a deep bench, which mine do not, you don't have the luxury of backing up everyone.

Like the poster stated, even backups are not for certain so you still miss out on protecting your lead dog.

I drafted Miller and Ingram. This week's Superbowl I started Powell and Payne. Crazy

 

[Poncho]

Should be a fun time next year drafting with 11 other guys where no RB's will get picked until rd5 or so. That's great value for Leveon.....

 

[Jackstraw]

I think in general the running back situation benefits those that keep abreast of conditions and work the waiver wire accordingly. Benefits the guys that can manage their teams vs the guy that prints out his list and pulls a couple of studs at the beginning of the year.

Good for the informed managers which most in here probably are.

I held David Johnson all year long and got heckled for it.

 

[bjabrad]

RBBC is rampant. RB injuries is rampant. The good news is that the backup RB typically gets the production when the lead RB goes down. Not true for WR's. When the stud WR goes down their targets get spread around and not just to the backup WR. So stock up on stud WR's and stud QB's and try to survive the RB situation. I'm also not a fan of stocking up on handcuffs. Just replace RB as needed rather than loading up the roster with handcuff lottery picks that are too random to pay off.

My strategy was to pretty much ignore my own guy's handcuff, and just pick up anyone starting. Even with the worst waiver priority I still managed to steal quite a few guys. I'd rather back up my own starter with another starter rather than his own backup. Guys in my league avoided the Frank Gores and Legarrete Blount types on draft day and I kept picking them up late after picking up WRs and other positions early. By the end of the draft I had no clear #1 rb, but I did end up with 4 guys rated RB14-RB24 and two more between RB24 and RB36. 6 in the top 36 made for lots of flex options and maneuverability.

You play the game well. Drafting starters instead of handcuffs also gave you trade bait early in the season.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Lost to a roster that had Gillislee and Powell yesterday.....of course we had these guys in our TOP40 pre season....RB has become the most frustrating position to draft and try and figure out.

Losing to Gillislee would be hard to me to stomach. Talk about a dart throw. A wish and a prayer. An "expect the worst and hope for the best" scenario.

Let me just add....50yds or greater and its a double TD. So that was a 17 point play....

Sorry, don't mean to derail, but stupid-### scoring like this annoys the hell out of me. It's random, arbitrary & ridiculous, IMO. /endrant

You wouldn't feel that way if you had Bortles/AR15 stacked when they hooked up for that 90 yarder late yesterday.



30.60 points, game ovah!

 

[BobbyLayne]

or get with the times and switch to start 1 RB

we start 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

next year we may switch to start 2 WR 1 RB 1 W/R 1 W/R/TE 1 TE

the league does not value RBs why should FF?

we go with 3 rbs in ppr and I find it a lot more interesting. Brings value to more players which is a good thing.

I would never play in a 1 rb league..boring imo

Two years ago it was 3 WR 2 RB 1 TE no flex

Last year it was 2 WR 1 RB 2 W/R Flex 1 TE

This year 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

Actually started discussions last night on what lineup people want next year and the early consensus is people want a 2nd RB put back in.

We had the same lineup for 20 years, then I became commish. Looking like a new format for the 3rd year in a row.

 

[SanDawg]

or get with the times and switch to start 1 RB

we start 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

next year we may switch to start 2 WR 1 RB 1 W/R 1 W/R/TE 1 TE

the league does not value RBs why should FF?

we go with 3 rbs in ppr and I find it a lot more interesting. Brings value to more players which is a good thing.

I would never play in a 1 rb league..boring imo

Two years ago it was 3 WR 2 RB 1 TE no flex

Last year it was 2 WR 1 RB 2 W/R Flex 1 TE

This year 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

Actually started discussions last night on what lineup people want next year and the early consensus is people want a 2nd RB put back in.

We had the same lineup for 20 years, then I became commish. Looking like a new format for the 3rd year in a row.

I guess it depends on how deep is the bench and how deep is the league. 2 RB's mandatory in a 14 team with limited bench is not something I would look forward to. Maybe in a 10 team or 12 and 6-10 reserves.

 

[BobbyLayne]

or get with the times and switch to start 1 RB

we start 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

next year we may switch to start 2 WR 1 RB 1 W/R 1 W/R/TE 1 TE

the league does not value RBs why should FF?

we go with 3 rbs in ppr and I find it a lot more interesting. Brings value to more players which is a good thing.I would never play in a 1 rb league..boring imo

Two years ago it was 3 WR 2 RB 1 TE no flex

Last year it was 2 WR 1 RB 2 W/R Flex 1 TE

This year 3 WR 1 RB 1 W/R Flex 1 TE

Actually started discussions last night on what lineup people want next year and the early consensus is people want a 2nd RB put back in.

We had the same lineup for 20 years, then I became commish. Looking like a new format for the 3rd year in a row.

I guess it depends on how deep is the bench and how deep is the league. 2 RB's mandatory in a 14 team with limited bench is not something I would look forward to. Maybe in a 10 team or 12 and 6-10 reserves.

12 x 16 this year, switching to 12 x 18 for 2016. Max transactions of 4/ week 32/ season.

 

[Bayhawks]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

 

[mnmplayer]

So is making predictions the following year will match-up with the previous.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

I was with you up until then. Did you watch the Giants game last night? I didn't see anybody doing O'dell things out there. Same thing when Dez was out. However, I did see not one, but two previous nobodies effectively step in for a borderline HoF'er in Jamaal Charles.

 

[Denver724]

Lost to a roster that had Gillislee and Powell yesterday.....of course we had these guys in our TOP40 pre season....RB has become the most frustrating position to draft and try and figure out.

Losing to Gillislee would be hard to me to stomach. Talk about a dart throw. A wish and a prayer. An "expect the worst and hope for the best" scenario.

Let me just add....50yds or greater and its a double TD. So that was a 17 point play....

Ouch!

 

[Bayhawks]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

I was with you up until then. Did you watch the Giants game last night? I didn't see anybody doing O'dell things out there. Same thing when Dez was out. However, I did see not one, but two previous nobodies effectively step in for a borderline HoF'er in Jamaal Charles.

Not saying its easier for NFL teams to replace them; rather that its easier for FF owners to replace them. The owner who lost Beckham in my league started Hurns instead. The owner who lost Jordy started with Adams early, played the WW, eventually settled on Baldwin.In dynasty/keeper leagues, or large redraft leagues, I don't think you're getting these RBs AFTER an injury occurs. Its MUCH easier to find an impact WR off the WW (in deep leagues) than to get an equivalent RB.

With regards to the replacing of Beckham, its not a fair comparison. 1-Beckham is out for 1 game; while Charles was out for the season. I'd a guy is gone for the year, a coach should be more willing to change his offense/play-calling/player usage to match the players he has available. When a guy is out for 1 game, from what I've seen (with a few exceptions-BB being most obvious), coaches usually try to fit the replacement into the role of the guy who is out. 2-when a RB goes out (especially a bellcow like Charles), a back up steps into that role; when a WR1 goes down, the backup doesn't typically fill the WR1 role-he fills the WR3 role, the WR3 becomes WR2 & the WR2 becomes the WR1. With that said, Randle put up 14 FF points last night, which is 1.56 less than Beckham's average. That's a 10% drop. West has averaged 24% fewer FF points than Charles did. So, in an extremely small sample size, ODB's replacement came closer to replicating his #s than West did in replicating Charles'.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft. Then, just pepper the later rounds with rookies and 3rd Down RBs that are in a timeshare. The way that the league has devalued the position means that those 3rd,4th,5th rounds rookies coming into the league are going to get to play at some point in the year.

Having a legit RB1 gives you a bit of insulation if injuries and ineffectiveness don't wipe out the pre-season starters.....but I do think the days of the "savvy" owner drafing 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds are gone.

Until they get hurt

 

[ThatDude98]

Good discussion.

I just won a SB last night, and I am favored to win a second SB next week -- if the early Yahoo projections are of any value.

In the first league -- a 10 team, PPR, 3 keeper league with 2 x RB, 2 x WR, TE, Flex -- I kept AB, OBJ, and Jamaal Charles. I also drafted Freeman, Foster, Gordon, and Yeldon. After the Foster and Charles injuries, I managed to swing some deals and ended up with D. WIlliams (traded for after the Bell injury) and Freeman as my routine starters and Latavius as a spot starter / flex. In this league, having good WR allowed me to be flexible in other places, make some deals and finish the season with two high ceiling RBs.

in the second league - a 12 team, PPR / .5 Rushing attempt league with 2 x RB, 2 x WR, TE and 2 x Flex -- I drafted AB in the first round, Luck in the second (first year of a keeper league), and Ingram in the third round. In this league, I also drafted Freeman and just went hog wild on RB. I went weeks without starting a defense (the bye week), a kicker (multiple weeks), or a TE (multiple weeks), and just stacked late round and waiver wire RBs (Freeman, Gurley off the waiver after week 3!!!, K. WIlliams, D. Williams, L. Murray, Blount, Starks, Spiller, Mathews, etc.). I'm mad I didn't get DJ because I didn't have an immediate spot for him. Regardless, I was able to uses my backs as flexibility here and make deals for an upgrade at WR (OBJ after Edelman went down).

So, what I guess I'm trying to say is, you need to play the value of the league. In a completely balanced draft, perhaps the best strategy is to go after stud WRs. However, if the value gets tilted greatly in one direction or the other, take advantage and work your trades -- other owners will face challenges too.

 

[ghostguy123]

The RB strategy in dynasty and redraft is completely different.

I have no problem going RB heavy in a redraft. If they all get hurt and/or suck, worst case scenario is you suck and lose in that one league for one year.

You invest a lot in RB in dynasty and they crash and burn, and you are screwed for about a half decade. The chances of investing in WR/TE and crashing and burning is infinitely lower than the RB position. Much rather take the consistency of the WRs and scrap for the Wests, Hightowers, Johnsons, Whites, Starks, Crowells, Williams, Buck Allens, Denard Robinsons, Hillmans, Woodheads, Rawls, and Draugns of the world throughout the year.

 

[bjabrad]

Many leagues could have been won this season by drafting WR, WR, WR, QB, TE, RB, RB, etc... and then just grabbing the best replacement RB's after the injuries occur. It's probably a trend due to the way RB's are used and the frequency of injuries at that position.

 

[jimmykick]

Random idea came to mind as I was thinking about this. Are there fantasy leagues where instead of drafting a player at a position, you draft a team at a position (basically like how Team DEF works) -so instead of drafting Leveon Bell, you draft Pittsburg Steelers RBs and get all the RB points for that team each week you start them? Wouldn't be as fun in some ways of course, but would simplify things a bit and keep from having to always worry about handcuffing/RBBCs etc. I imagine if a league did this you'd do it for all the positions.

 

[ghostguy123]

Many leagues could have been won this season by drafting WR, WR, WR, QB, TE, RB, RB, etc... and then just grabbing the best replacement RB's after the injuries occur. It's probably a trend due to the way RB's are used and the frequency of injuries at that position.

I think people would have had a hell of a chance to win leagues this year if they didnt draft a RB at all. Roster size dependent of course.

 

[Casting Couch]

Frustrating? Yes. Worthless? Absolutely not.

This

 

[Shutout]

The number of RB injuries we had this year was unprecedented. This is either the start of a trend or an outlier - and the most likely explanation is an outlier. I will draft as usual next year and probably get top RBs at a discount - unless, of course, this was the start of a trend.

A hundred times this. If we concluded after every season that this was the new normal, we would have argued that WR-WR-WR was the only path to victory in 1996, that QB was completely useless in 2006, and that QB was the key to success in 2012. We would have waited forever on TEs in 2011, jumped all over them early in 2012, then waited forever at the position again in 2013, which would have been pretty much wrong on all counts. We would have loaded up all of our teams with rookie running backs in 2009, rookie quarterbacks in 2013, and rookie wide receivers in 2015 and then wondered why we missed the playoffs.

Every year is unique, with a unique feel, unique challenges, and unique keys. 2015 was the year every running back fell apart at once. I'm betting that 2016 won't be, too.

Yes, every season turns on its own events.

When I read the original post, I thought I agree that it has worked that way this year but at the same time, I started a great run in my main dynasty and it all began when I started going heavy rb.

For me, yes this year shook out like was described and my team succeeded because I had some of these backups and off the radar guys but for the past three years, I've also been the guy that left teams in the dust because I cruised every week with Charles and Forte and other notable weekly studs like lynch.

After this season, I would actually argue to go with rb because at least with a either have the guy or not but with a Wr, your fate hinges not only on the health of your wr but also your qb. Hilton owners and Antonio owners suffered when Luck and Ben were out.

 

[Jedi Knight]

Random idea came to mind as I was thinking about this. Are there fantasy leagues where instead of drafting a player at a position, you draft a team at a position (basically like how Team DEF works) -so instead of drafting Leveon Bell, you draft Pittsburg Steelers RBs and get all the RB points for that team each week you start them? Wouldn't be as fun in some ways of course, but would simplify things a bit and keep from having to always worry about handcuffing/RBBCs etc. I imagine if a league did this you'd do it for all the positions.

I'm actually thinking of doing this in our league next year. We already do it with Defensive Line, Special Teams and Offensive Line.

 

[bjabrad]

Many leagues could have been won this season by drafting WR, WR, WR, QB, TE, RB, RB, etc... and then just grabbing the best replacement RB's after the injuries occur. It's probably a trend due to the way RB's are used and the frequency of injuries at that position.

I think people would have had a hell of a chance to win leagues this year if they didnt draft a RB at all. Roster size dependent of course.

Have to try to win every week including week 1. RB's take a few weeks before they get beaten down and injured.

 

[comfortably numb]

I was mocked in the Gurley thread for moving him in my dynasty PPR league for Antonio Brown (main parts of the deal)

I'm still very satisfied with the deal.

Next year everyone will take Gurley #1 and he may very well end up being a top 5 back but recent history shows there is a very good chance he ends up out of the top 10 for one reason or another.

Between PPR, start 2 RB, RBBC, injuries, wife abusing, baby beating and just sucking it's too hard to find a RB you can confidently rely on.

This year was a crazy year for RBs. I don't think it will always be this bad but I cashed my Gurley chips for something I feel safer and more confident in.

 

[Pipes]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

Jordy and Benjamin were injured before most drafts and Hilton and Allen were drafted in the 3rd round or later. So yes WRs do get injured and underperform but not at the rate of RBs...at least this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

And then there was that tool who used to do a weekly in here on the RBs. He cut the cord a few years back when the writing was on the wall.

 

[Wonderllama]

I'm drafting a QB before I draft a RB. Maybe even a TE if someone like Greg Olsen is available.

I wonder how discounted Leveon Bell will be. Back to back seasons ending on a knee injury has to be a huge red flag. But if I could back him up with D-Will... might be worth it

 

[ghostguy123]

Many leagues could have been won this season by drafting WR, WR, WR, QB, TE, RB, RB, etc... and then just grabbing the best replacement RB's after the injuries occur. It's probably a trend due to the way RB's are used and the frequency of injuries at that position.

I think people would have had a hell of a chance to win leagues this year if they didnt draft a RB at all. Roster size dependent of course.

Have to try to win every week including week 1. RB's take a few weeks before they get beaten down and injured.

I do not agree. I mean, I agree about trying to win, you just don't have to have any drafted RBs to actually win in the first couple weeks. It probably helps I am sure, but I ccould easily see taking the hit to load up on the stud QBs, WRs, and TE and hope to squeak out maybe a 2-2 start.

 

[Biabreakable]

There are a few different things that are influencing the value of RB relative to other positions here and all of them combined is leading to what I think is a correct perspective about RB value in FF.

Many of the better college players are playing WR or other positions than RB. I used to be somewhat skeptical of this, but after giving it more thought I think this may be true.

There were two draft classes where no RB was drafted in the first round. There has been a lot of talk about the league not valuing the RB position the same as teams once did. You look back at drafts in the 1980s to 2000 and you see multiple RB being drafted in the first round nearly every draft. For the past ten years or so that draft capital invested in the position has declined. This is a reflection of teams shift in how they value players at the RB position. The player has to be truly special to be worthy of a first round pick now.

RB useful careers are usually short lived. About two seasons of top level performance is the average of the best of the best of them according to this evaluation I did awhile back. NFL teams know this as well. So the strategy is more a volume type of approach where teams should be always looking to improve the talent of their depth at the position with later draft picks or free agency. Chris Johnson for example was a free agent late into the offseason, Hightower picked up recently when other RB were injured or did not pan out.

While there certainly are different degrees of talent level between RB. For fantasy football opportunity matters more than anything else. Talent should lead to more opportunity, but with the high rate of turnover as well as the short length of being really effective of two years, it does not make a lot of sense to invest in RB because of their long term potential. The rarity of a player actually being an elite performer at the RB makes the few who do actually accomplish this worth a ton. There have been a lot of wasted resources chasing that rare possibility however in dynasty leagues.

As always starting requirements in FF will have a huge impact on their value. If your league only requires you start 1 RB then the scarcity issue isn't really there. There should be enough RB on waivers that you likely should not invest high draft picks into the position that will be easily streamable, just like you can do with QB or defenses in leagues where only one of those are required starts. When you can start 2 or more RB the pool of RB that will be rostered is much deeper and it will be more difficult to find those RB on waivers, especially in seasons where there are fewer injuries to established starters than this season.

PPR scoring makes the stability and safety of high volume WR pretty much a no brainer safe investment compared to a RB expected to put up similar points in your league scoring format. Then when you compare the expected useful career length of WR compared to RB in dynasty it just makes the disparity between the value of the two positions wider. For redraft leagues this comes back to the long term sustainability of high level RB performance compared to WR. The WR is a much safer investment. In standard scoring leagues I think RB are more closely valuable to WR.

 

[MattFancy]

I think in general the running back situation benefits those that keep abreast of conditions and work the waiver wire accordingly. Benefits the guys that can manage their teams vs the guy that prints out his list and pulls a couple of studs at the beginning of the year.

Good for the informed managers which most in here probably are.

I held David Johnson all year long and got heckled for it.

I would heckle you for holding Johnson all year. He started out the year fine, but as Chris Johnson emerged, David Johnson took a back seat. If you had the foresight that a 3rd string RB would be the starter by the end of the year because the other 2 guys were injured in front of him, congrats.

He had a 5 game stretch where he didn't have more than 10yds rushing or more than 2 catches. His points in those games (PPR): 2.7, 4.4, 6.8, 1.8, 10.6. If you had the bench space to hold him all year, great.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

For those people saying handcuff, the only guy i listed who was a handcuff to start the season was dwill

To start the season sure. But by the time the injuries came about west Langford Rawls Allen Johnson had all established themselves as the handcuff

 

[Bayhawks]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

Jordy and Benjamin were injured before most drafts and Hilton and Allen were drafted in the 3rd round or later. So yes WRs do get injured and underperform but not at the rate of RBs...at least this year.

According to real drafts from MFL, 7 of the top 12 WRs drafted this year were busts, only 2 as a result of injury. 8 of the top 12 RBs drafted were busts, 4 of them due to injury. This ignores guys like Jordy & Benjamin, but it also ignores guys like Lewis, Candle, Gordon, etc.Someone else can compare historical ADP to injuries, it this seams like a case of RBs being easier for FF owners to replace. Dez gets hurt, DT can't find the end zone, plug in Burns, Baldwin, J Jones, R Matthews, etc. Charles gets hurt, hope you had his handcuff, or that its a small enough league that he's still available, or start Sims, Cromwell, etc.

Most of the top 32 RBs were drafted in my leagues; about 1/3 of the top 32 WR were WW pickups.

 

[TZMarkie]

I don't think the RB position is essentially worthless.

IN FACT - I think all you guys should draft RBs early and often, and try and suck up as many as you can early in round one next year.

Seriously, pull the trigger on every big name RB you can, and tell all your friends to do the exact same thing. Spread the word brothers.

(that way I can acquire Julio Jones and ODB as my first two picks in my leagues)

TZM

 

[mikel0254]

Our championship game featured D Williams & K Williams vs C West and D Freeman. Who would of guessed that pre-season...

 

[TZMarkie]

Our championship game featured D Williams & K Williams vs C West and D Freeman. Who would of guessed that pre-season...

Here's one league I am in, interestingly enough, its also my biggest $$$ league.

The eventual league winner started TIM HIGHTOWER and CAMERON ARTIS-PAYNE vs. (the loser's) DOUG MARTIN and KARLOS WILLIAMS.

In fact the league winner's complete RB squad at the end of the season was Tim Hightower, Cam Artis-Payne, T.J. Yeldon, Jerick McKinnon and Rashad Jennings. Ridiculous but he was lucky at TE including Jordan Reed, elsewhere with Julio, Hurns, Jordan Matthews etc. (Note he started Hurns, Julio, Jordan Matthews, Jordan Reed and Hightower, and ALL FIVE HAD THEIR SEASON HIGHS! ) So this guy was flat out destined to win as far as I'm concerned.

Contrast that to my stable of RB's - LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Latavius Murray, Ronnie Hillman and Buck Allen.

Thanks to Demaryius Thomas,Allen Robinson, Travis Kelce , all those RBs, and the Denver defense all having a bad week, I lost by 1.64 points in round 1 of the playoffs. (I know wrong thread)

The RBs this year were really ridiculous, but what can you do.

TZM

 

[JamesTheScot]

Anyone claiming that they saw Rawls/West/Hightower/Langford/Allen/D Will as anything more then late round dart throws/ FA prayer pickups, well they're just flat out lying.

For every one of these guys I'll introduce Duke J/ David Cobb/ Knile Davis/ Andre Will / Artis Payne/ Turbin/ Dan Herron/Brandon Oliver/ Khiry Rob/ etc etc

The waiver wire has never been and likely won't ever be more prominent then it was in 2015. Let's not revise history here. This year was straight up chaos. Tim Hightower and Deangelo rode people to titles. They likely won't be picked in the top 8 rds of next year's draft.

2015.

Good posting.

I think there's a lot of revisionist history in this thread.

For some reason "I'm not sure if Davis is going to get all of Charles' touches" when Charles went down has turned into "West had established himself as the primary backup to Charles" today. It wasn't "established". West had looked good at times, but people were still guessing. Do we need to make a list of RB's that flashed in preseason games that have never panned out?

It's the same old same old. When it's end of the roster flyers or uncertain dart throws, we tend to remember and crow over our hits and shrug off and forget our misses.

We act like there's a strategy advantage in either keeping guys stashed or churning the waiver wire. There isn't. Which of the two you should employ is completely dependent on the specific players stashed (or on the waiver wire) and who gets hurt that year.

It's week 5 and Charles has gone down. Do you cut DeAngelo to pick up Davis? Or West? Or neither because you aren't sure which guy will soak up more of those Charles touches? If only we had a crystal ball to see Bell go down in week 8. Well, we don't have crystal balls, but we do have hindsight and short term memories.

 

[TZMarkie]

Anyone claiming that they saw Rawls/West/Hightower/Langford/Allen/D Will as anything more then late round dart throws/ FA prayer pickups, well they're just flat out lying.

The waiver wire has never been and likely won't ever be more prominent then it was in 2015. Tim Hightower and Deangelo rode people to titles.

Good posting.

I think there's a lot of revisionist history in this thread.

For some reason "I'm not sure if Davis is going to get all of Charles' touches" when Charles went down has turned into "West had established himself as the primary backup to Charles" today. It wasn't "established". West had looked good at times, but people were still guessing. Do we need to make a list of RB's that flashed in preseason games that have never panned out?

It's the same old same old. When it's end of the roster flyers or uncertain dart throws, we tend to remember and crow over our hits and shrug off and forget our misses.

It's week 5 and Charles has gone down. Do you cut DeAngelo to pick up Davis? Or West? Or neither because you aren't sure which guy will soak up more of those Charles touches? If only we had a crystal ball to see Bell go down in week 8. Well, we don't have crystal balls, but we do have hindsight and short term memories.

First off, let me say I agree with you two generally.

But I do want to point out the cases of DeAngelo Williams and Charcandrick West.

Charc West -

I know there was no "ironclad guarantee" that he would do as well as he did.

But the signs were there.

The usage of Knile Davis just wasn't as heavy as in years past, and correct me if I'm wrong but the majority of his work had been in special teams this season, or at least thats what I remember.

We also couldn't have foreseen that that he would excel and hold the job. But some in the threads here certainly thought (and openly stated) he was the one to get, 2-3 weeks into the season to handcuff. (now if you want to argue if we should have handcuffed or not, then thats a different topic altogether)

For what its worth, I'm not going to tell you I drafted West and held him as a handcuff to Charles, in fact I never even had Charles anywhere in any league.

I did get West in a couple of leagues ahead of Knile Davis off the wire though, and used him when appropriate as a spot start the rest of the season.

Now, that aside even if you write West off as mostly luck/or a scenario we can't fully anticipate, you CAN NOT do so with DeAngelo Williams!

And for this very same reason I have no sympathy for the LeVeon Bell owners that didn't keep Williams rostered as his handcuff. (if they drafted him)

For God's sake, you had two weeks to start off the season with 20+ carries by Williams, and he looked more than capable.

We all absolutely KNEW he would be a good sized part of the offense if Bell wasn't there.

Look no further than his first two weeks stats.

(Williams stats week 1 was 21 for 127, and week 2 was 20 for 77 and three TDs )

So anyone that dropped Williams where he just sat on the wire was not exactly thinking that move through.

(I love when guys hold those garbage WR4-5 types, that will never start nor be a major help, and cut the high end lottery ticket handcuff backs....then they ##### they don't have any luck with lottery ticket running back depth)

Not saying either one of you two are that way specifically...........but I'm just pointing out that there is no way DeAngelo Williams should have ever been on any waiver wire in any standard league, after the season started.

Thats ridiculous.

TZM

 

[Arodin]

I do not agree. I mean, I agree about trying to win, you just don't have to have any drafted RBs to actually win in the first couple weeks. It probably helps I am sure, but I ccould easily see taking the hit to load up on the stud QBs, WRs, and TE and hope to squeak out maybe a 2-2 start.

Don't forget to factor in that by starting 2-2 your waiver position will be better for snatching up the proper backups as starters begin to fall...

 

[davearm]

I think in general the running back situation benefits those that keep abreast of conditions and work the waiver wire accordingly. Benefits the guys that can manage their teams vs the guy that prints out his list and pulls a couple of studs at the beginning of the year.

Good for the informed managers which most in here probably are.

I held David Johnson all year long and got heckled for it.

I would heckle you for holding Johnson all year. He started out the year fine, but as Chris Johnson emerged, David Johnson took a back seat. If you had the foresight that a 3rd string RB would be the starter by the end of the year because the other 2 guys were injured in front of him, congrats.

He had a 5 game stretch where he didn't have more than 10yds rushing or more than 2 catches. His points in those games (PPR): 2.7, 4.4, 6.8, 1.8, 10.6. If you had the bench space to hold him all year, great.

David Johnson had exactly the profile of the RB you want taking spot on your bench. You want guys with HR potential, guys that may be scoring zeros or close to it but have the potential to be huge if they ascend to the starting role.

I know it sounds completely counterintuitive, but I want my bench RBs putting up those types of miniscule numbers. I want guys that are scoring either 2 PPG (if not starting) or 20 PPG (if starting). I'd much rather have that than a Shane Vereen type that might give you 8-10 PPG but has no upside to go any higher than that, because he's never going to ascend to the feature back role on an offense that produces elite RB numbers.

DJohnson cashed in that potential this year, as did guys like West and Rawls and Lewis. Guys like Christine Michael and Jay Ajayi and Tevin Coleman never did. They were all worthy of rostering.

 

[Deamon]

Bell gets hurt, DWill puts up better numbers.

Charles gets hurt, West puts up rb1 numbers until het gets hurt then Ware does

Forte gets hurt, Langford stud rb1

Ingram gets hurt, a guy on the street for four years becomes and instant rb1

Lynch hurt, Rawls is a stud until hes hurt

Forsett hurt, aside from one game where hes benched, Allen is much better

Surprise star Lewis tears acl, his replacement white essentially does the same exact thing scoring a td nearly every week

David johnson becomes a star when the starter and backuo both get hurt

What did we learn? The rb position is useless, just draft as many as you can and go to the ww every chance you get. Never say a guy will suck just cuz hes a backup because opportunity pretty much means everything. Also, stop whining about injuries to your rbs as you can basically replace and sometimes even surpass their number with their backup.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/739042-running-back-decimation-2015/?hl=decimation

 

[Bayhawks]

I think in general the running back situation benefits those that keep abreast of conditions and work the waiver wire accordingly. Benefits the guys that can manage their teams vs the guy that prints out his list and pulls a couple of studs at the beginning of the year.

Good for the informed managers which most in here probably are.

I held David Johnson all year long and got heckled for it.

I would heckle you for holding Johnson all year. He started out the year fine, but as Chris Johnson emerged, David Johnson took a back seat. If you had the foresight that a 3rd string RB would be the starter by the end of the year because the other 2 guys were injured in front of him, congrats.

He had a 5 game stretch where he didn't have more than 10yds rushing or more than 2 catches. His points in those games (PPR): 2.7, 4.4, 6.8, 1.8, 10.6. If you had the bench space to hold him all year, great.

That's the point, to me.Those in this thread talking about just grabbing guys off the WW at RB don't play in large leagues, deep leagues, or active leagues. With the exception of Ware & Draughns, none of these WW RBs were available in any of my leagues AFTER injuries made them valuable. Even if they weren't the handcuff (or on the team) at the beginning of the year, they were picked up when the potential for them was first hinted at. High tower was picked up as soon as NO re-signwd him in early Nov; he was kept on a roster even though he has 12 total carries in the month before Ingram went on IR. Williams had 13 touches in the 5 games Bell was healthy, he was kept. Michael was rostered ALL year, CAP was rostered all year. James White was drafted & never released, even though Lewis made him irrelevant & he did nothing in the 1st 2 games Lewis missed. Rawls was drafted, kept after Lynch 1st returned & he did nothing for a month.

The idea of "working the WW" doesn't work in larger, deeper and/or more active leagues. You have to predict, hang onto talent, and be patient. But if you try to rely on that strategy & don't have at least 1 viable RB option, you're screwed.