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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (4 Viewers)

Wanted to drop a name in here that I think is worth listening too since he had a lot of this right as early as 2015/2016. Tim Snyder.

There's a lecture from back then where he basically explains Russia's motivations -- matching almost word for word what Putin will say immediately after invading Ukraine in 2022. He's all over Youtube with interviews and lectures and his Ukrainian History course at Yale is available for free.

Fair warning: you're probably not going to care for what he has to say if you're a Russian expansionist and/or supportive of the worldwide fascist movement of the last several years.
 
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themeistersinger said:
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This is a topic that Snyder (post above) has been talking about in great detail for 6+ years now. Maybe longer. There are all kinds of receipts that the quoted thread is correct (including that Putin said it).

It's not about "NATO" or "security". It's that there's a group of fascists in Russia who believe Ukraine doesn't exist. Not "doesn't have the right to exist" -- literally "doesn't exist".
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Wanted to drop a name in here that I think is worth listening too since he had a lot of this right as early as 2015/2016. Tim Snyder.

There's a lecture from back then where he basically says word for word what Putin said immediately after invading Ukraine in 2022. He's all over Youtube with interviews and lectures and his Ukrainian History course at Yale is available for free.

Fair warning: you're probably not going to care for what he has to say if you're a Russian expansionist and/or supportive of the worldwide fascist movement of the last several years.
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For example:

All of you who are saying that we have to give in to nuclear blackmail are making nuclear war more likely. Please stop. When you give in to it, you empower dictators to do it again, encourage worldwide nuclear proliferation, and make nuclear war much, much more likely.
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Ukraine's path to victory. Whole thing is worth a read.

Putin, of course, is capable of making terrible choices, and he is desperate. Neither Ukraine nor the West can discount the possibility that he will order a nuclear attack. But the West can deter him by making it clear that, should Russia launch such a strike, it will directly, and conventionally, enter the conflict. Avoiding NATO involvement is one of the main reasons Putin continues to threaten a nuclear attack—Putin knows that if Russia cannot prevail against Ukraine, it has no chance against NATO—and he is therefore unlikely to do something that would bring the bloc in. That’s especially true given the speed with which NATO would win. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is moving comparatively slowly, giving Putin space to use his propaganda apparatus to manage public perception of the events. Once NATO joined, he would have no time to shield his reputation from the Russian military’s stunning collapse.

NATO has no shortage of ways to seriously threaten Russia without using nuclear weapons. It might not even need a land operation. The Western coalition could credibly tell the Kremlin that it would hit Russian capabilities with direct missile strikes and airstrikes, destroying its military facilities and disabling its Black Sea Fleet. It could threaten to cut all its communications with electronic warfare and arrange a cyber-blackout against the entire Russian military. The West could also threaten to impose sanctions that are totalizing and complete (no exceptions for energy buys), which would quickly bankrupt Russia. Especially if taken together, these measures would cause irreparable, critical damage to the Russian armed forces.

What the West should not and cannot do is be cowed by Russia’s nuclear blackmail. If the West stops aiding Ukraine because it fears the consequences, nuclear states will find it much easier to impose their will on nonnuclear ones in the future. If Russia orders a nuclear strike and gets away with it, nuclear states will have almost automatic permission to invade lesser powers. In either scenario, the result will be widespread proliferation. Even poorer countries will plow their resources into nuclear programs, and for an understandable reason: It will be the only sure way to guarantee their sovereignty.
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Ukraine's path to victory. Whole thing is worth a read.

Putin, of course, is capable of making terrible choices, and he is desperate. Neither Ukraine nor the West can discount the possibility that he will order a nuclear attack. But the West can deter him by making it clear that, should Russia launch such a strike, it will directly, and conventionally, enter the conflict. Avoiding NATO involvement is one of the main reasons Putin continues to threaten a nuclear attack—Putin knows that if Russia cannot prevail against Ukraine, it has no chance against NATO—and he is therefore unlikely to do something that would bring the bloc in. That’s especially true given the speed with which NATO would win. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is moving comparatively slowly, giving Putin space to use his propaganda apparatus to manage public perception of the events. Once NATO joined, he would have no time to shield his reputation from the Russian military’s stunning collapse.

NATO has no shortage of ways to seriously threaten Russia without using nuclear weapons. It might not even need a land operation. The Western coalition could credibly tell the Kremlin that it would hit Russian capabilities with direct missile strikes and airstrikes, destroying its military facilities and disabling its Black Sea Fleet. It could threaten to cut all its communications with electronic warfare and arrange a cyber-blackout against the entire Russian military. The West could also threaten to impose sanctions that are totalizing and complete (no exceptions for energy buys), which would quickly bankrupt Russia. Especially if taken together, these measures would cause irreparable, critical damage to the Russian armed forces.

What the West should not and cannot do is be cowed by Russia’s nuclear blackmail. If the West stops aiding Ukraine because it fears the consequences, nuclear states will find it much easier to impose their will on nonnuclear ones in the future. If Russia orders a nuclear strike and gets away with it, nuclear states will have almost automatic permission to invade lesser powers. In either scenario, the result will be widespread proliferation. Even poorer countries will plow their resources into nuclear programs, and for an understandable reason: It will be the only sure way to guarantee their sovereignty.
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I agree, Russia’s already losing one war they started, bringing NATO in would be hilariously bad for him. That’s why I doubt he opens that door.

Side note, Russia’s neighbors should feel better about their chances if they get invaded, because it’s clear Russia isn’t beating anyone who has munitions or battle strategies made after 1946.
 
Speaking of Russians going home (and not going home)...

Ukraine has asked people around the Kherson fighting not to post anything about what they're seeing. And at the same time there are widespread reports of fighting along the entire front at Kherson. Speculation (way unconfirmed) is that Ukraine is pressing a massive attack there.
 
themeistersinger said:
Meanwhile in Russia: Andrey Gurulyov, former deputy commander of Russia's southern military district, complains about problems with alcoholics being mobilized, discusses the Kherson offensive and claims that Ukrainians are advancing solely to help the Democrats in the midterms.
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1, if I was in Russia, I’d drink myself stupid, too, because it’s a dump; 2, the answer is that it’s going poorly for the orcs; and 3, what?
 
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