Dillon (goal line work) + Pierce (volume and LAC defense banged up)
Since St. Brown is out Chark has some upside. What is the scoring? Assuming PPR here
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Week 04 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Since St. Brown is out Chark has some upside. What is the scoring? Assuming PPR here
1 ppr
start Chubb, Herbert, and McCaffery and pivot to AJones if McCaffrey is ruled out. Might be getting too cute but think of the glory you earn if it works out!
Hock should be getting a ton of targets this week. NJoku has a way of disappointing. We shall see f he becomes the man.
Kamara and Herbert for sure. I don’t know about the other two.
Chaka
Footballguy
1) I like Penny against a terrible Detroit defense. Sanders is a fine player getting very consistent volume, nothing wrong with starting him here but he's going from facing three bad defenses to the best run d in the league. And he is at constant risk of Hurts vulturing short TDs.
Penny>Sanders>Rhamondre
2) Penny & Sanders IMO but I understand the temptation to go with Doubs. Maybe he really is Rodgers #1 WR. I'd wait a week on Godwin.
Penny>Sanders>Doubs
3) Both decent options. I guess I lean towards Pierce because of volume even if I think Olave probably has a higher ceiling.
Pierce>Olave
4) Dillon>Doubs>G.Wilson>Burks
Dillon has been a little disappointing but he's still a RB2 so far and the Packers strike me as a team that will only get better as the season progresses.
I do think Doubs has a chance to separate from the Pack at WR but I'm not banking on that if you have an option like Dillon to fall back on.
I need to see Zach Wilson play before I would be confident rolling Garrett Wilson out there.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm tempted to say CEH here, he's not getting a ton of volume but he's playing great (5.3 y/a, 9.6 y/r) putting up 77 yards, 4 receptions and a TD per game. But that Tampa Bay defense is strong against the run.
Rhamondre is an interesting choice here after last weekend because I think he is the RB of choice when facing negative game scripts. The QB probably makes defending them easier but maybe the offense moves through the backfield more?
Doubs is still more of an unknown than I think people want acknowledged. Watson isn't on the injury report so that clouds the situation a bit too.
Rhamondre>CEH>Doubs but really, that's just a WAG so go with your gut.
Thanks. I am pretty much aligned with your thinking here and am going with Rhamondre. CEH has done well from a fantasy standpoint but hard to think he can keep putting up numbers with such limited touches IRL. Especially against TB.
I think you are spot on about NE leaning on the run, And Doubs seems a bit boom or bust until he shows that consistent production. Although I think he well ahead of Watson.
Chaka
Footballguy
I was writing up a an assessment of each one of these guys and I came to the conclusion that any one of them has a good chance to lead this group.
If you have a rooting interest in any of them then roll with those guys.
I still believe in Dillon in a game the Pack should win handily.
And I think it's worth strongly considering Penny despite the risk of low volume because Detroit is the 27th rush D and lowest ranked scoring defense.
After that I like
Dillon>Penny>Jacobs>Wilson>Pierce
Chaka
Footballguy
Great RB corps!
I am hesitant to bench A.Jones but I really like your reasoning.
I worry that we are all too enamored of Herbet. He looks great when he gets volume and he has a sweet matchup. But this is a bad offense and he really isn't a factor in the passing game, which matters less in a standard league like yours.
But he does feel like a great backstop for McCaffrey in this situation. And I think we all want to see him go.
Yeah, I'm good with your reasoning.
Chaka
Footballguy
Wow tough calls. Feels like guessing, more than normal that is.
I don't like Davis in Wilson's first game back.
Not sure I have much faith in Pierce just yet.
I guess I like Dotson because he is getting consistent looks, but it is a tough roadie and Wentz really divvies up his targets.
Woods may finally be rounding into form and is probably the safe/smart play. I worry his targets will fluctuate but he seems like a semi safe option.
Cam look like he is running himself into the starter role. I wish we had a few more games to see if that holds or if it was game plan dependent. My money says it's the former. But it's a very tough matchup on the road.
This is entirely a gut call but
Woods>Akers>Dotson>the others
Chaka
Footballguy
The game is actually in Detroit.
I honestly don't know here. They appear to be virtually interchangeable. Almost identical snaps and targets but Reynolds has been a bit more consistent on the receptions.
Flip a coin, my coin says
Reynolds>Chark
Chaka
Footballguy
I still say Dillon. Volume, should have a good game script, has multi-TD upside.
But any one of those guys could finish atop the list.
Probably go with Lazard next.
Keenan, Mitchel, Renfrow --- rough start but 2-0
Standard Scoring; PPR; bonus @ 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
Got Taylor and Wilson penciled in @ RB
Need 2 WR's and 1 Flex from this group:
Thielen
Josh Palmer
Romeo Doubs
Penny
Hunt
Leaning Theilen, Palmer and Doubs...
TIA
Standard Scoring; PPR; bonus @ 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
Got Taylor and Wilson penciled in @ RB
Need 2 WR's and 1 Flex from this group:
Thielen
Josh Palmer
Romeo Doubs
Penny
Hunt
Leaning Theilen, Palmer and Doubs...
TIA
Chaka
Footballguy
Wouldn't drop Lazard.
Hesitant on Robinson but the writing does appear to, maybe, possibly be on the wall there.
Don't know what to think about Gallup. There seems to be a lot of targets in that offense so what's his redraft upside?
I probably drop Gallup.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Need to start 2.
K. Herbert, D. Pierce, R. Stevenson, and C. Akers.
Grabbed Akers off of waivers, FYI. Don't want to create the impression I drafted him. I've got a little pride, you know.
K. Herbert, D. Pierce, R. Stevenson, and C. Akers.
Grabbed Akers off of waivers, FYI. Don't want to create the impression I drafted him. I've got a little pride, you know.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Not sure I'm loving Thielen in London vs the Saints who have the #5 passing D & only allowing 54.3% completions (#1). Those numbers are a bit suspect as they have faced Mariota, Brady & Mayfield. But they shouldn't be ignored either.
With Keenan Allen out again Palmer makes plenty of sense. He's getting eight targets/game.
Doubs is interesting and is close to Thielen in this discussion. Watson is back and we really have no idea really if Doubs has a shot at #1wr volume or if he saw it last week out of necessity. But he's a fun option to speculate on.
Palmer>Doubs>Thielen but it's very close between Doubs & Thielen
For your flex I like both RBs well before the third WR. Penny gets the the 27th rush D and the worst scoring defense in the league. He is always a risk for lower volume and doesn't bring much in the receiving category but he can do a lot of work on 12-15 opportunities.
I will continue to bang the drum for Hunt until he stops getting 15 opportunities per game, stops being a good receiver out of the backfield and stops being used as a 3 down + goal line back. 70 yards, 3 receptions & 0.67 TD/game with upside is very nice from the flex position.
Hunt>Penny also very close IMO
Chaka
Footballguy
Herbert is a tough call for everyone this week. He looks electric and has a great matchup but, it's a bad offense and what if he's a mirage? It's a question of risk aversion.
I like Rhamondre a bit this week as he appears to be the back NE uses in passing, hurry up & negative game script situations and that is likely what they will face this week.
Pierce is another good option as he's getting very good volume. But he doesn't look near as dynamic as he did in the preseason, go figure. But he could also be finding his legs at this new game speed and improve rapidly at some point.
Can't roll Akers with this group facing a tough roadie and still with an undefined role.
Herbert>Rhamondre>Pierce>Akers
Chaka
Footballguy
Agree on Herbert (see my post directly above about him & Rhamondre).
Wilson would be a real option normally, and maybe still should be, but losing Trent Williams (who probably deserved more than one 1st team All-Pro to go with his nine pro bowls) IMO is going to hurt a ton. At the very least it increases Wilson's risk quite a bit.
To me Kirk is close to unbenchable status in PPR at this point. You're not playing PPR, but he's still averaging 90 yards & a score per game. Tough to bench that even facing a bad roadie.
This is a flip flop decision between Rhamondre & Kirk so go with your gut.
Herbert>Kirk>Rhamondre>Wilson
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
ppr, need 2 (wr3 & flex)
Juju @TB
J Palmer @Hou
B Aiyuk @LAR
Leaning Juju and Palmer as they have been more consistent with a slightly higher floor than Aiyuk. Despite Aiyuk's blazing start last week he disappeared for the last 3 quarters, SF is still in the prove it stage before I feel comfortable locking Aiyuk in as an auto start every week.
Juju @TB
J Palmer @Hou
B Aiyuk @LAR
Leaning Juju and Palmer as they have been more consistent with a slightly higher floor than Aiyuk. Despite Aiyuk's blazing start last week he disappeared for the last 3 quarters, SF is still in the prove it stage before I feel comfortable locking Aiyuk in as an auto start every week.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like Hines here.
Renfrow against DEN is a bad matchup, Pierce is probably my 2nd choice but could be scripted out of the Texans get down in that game, and Henderson is also in a bad matchup & is losing touches to Akers.
As for Osborn, I don’t trust players in London games in general, and the saints pass defense is tough. Folks talk a lot about when there’s a shut down corner, the other receivers thrive, but that often isn’t the case in my experience. With a defense like NOS, the shut down corner locks up the best WR & takes away a lot of continuity for the offense. Otherwise I might recommend Osborn.
Tempted to say Dorch &
Can’t bench Deebo - he’s too involved on any given Sunday
Oops. Robinson - highest floor.
Dorch to ride the hot hand and because your other options are brutal.
Good luck.
ETA: it occurs to me that this is Curtis and not Deebo. Oops.
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titusbramble
Footballguy
It's Curtis Samuel, not Deebo
Chaka
Footballguy
Considering my prognostications have as much clarity as the augeries of a three-eyed raven, I'll allow it.
I think Christian Kirk has reached unbenchable status, particularly in PPR format. He's averaging 6 receptions, 90 yards and a score and it's not like he has a fluke big game inflating those #s. Tough matchup but, whatever.
Now it gets tough.
Don't like Conner. Never have, as a player that is (I'm sure he is a fine human being), injury prone, TD dependent and last year felt like a massive outlier. Tough matchup too. However out of everyone on this list he has the most potential to put up 1) 30 total yards and 2) 3 TDs on that yardage.
I've spoken on Rhamondre a bunch this week. Bottom line is bad game scripts may be a boost to his opportunities.
I'm kinda high on Jacobs this week. He's running strong and he gets all of the pie in Las Vegas (to the tune of 20 opportunities per game over the last two. The Raiders are completely bipolar and the Broncos may have an excellent defense (then again Seattle, Houston & SF aren't exactly strong offenses). This game represents the Raiders season, they had players only meetings, the coaching staff got called to Principal Moe Howard's office, they are getting LB Perryman, S Moehrig & C Andre James back this week (that's all a big deal), they have as much offensive talent as anyone and they're at home. Realistically Jacobs seems to have a highish floor so, even if he doesn't have a big game he should at least help you tread water.
I am a big fan of Cooks. He gets tons of volume and the Charger defense is a bit less intimidating without Bosa and maybe some of that late season magic they had when they humiliated the Chargers last season will carry over. But the Houston offense isn't very good overall, the Chargers still have plenty of defensive talent and I'm not banking on anything that happened last year.
Devonta has plenty of talent but this feels a little like chasing points. Kinda like Jaylen Waddle North. He'll have big games and leaving him in your lineup weekly will may be a net positive, but I don't say that with confidence, particularly with a tough matchup like the Jags appar to be.
Kirk>>Jacobs>Rhamondre>Conner>DaVonta>Cooks
Winter is coming
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Chaka
Footballguy
I'mma have to say no and no.
Trubisky may suck but Dionte is getting 11 targets/game every week and the Jets D is not strong.
Dionte>Olave
I may be overestimating this but I think the loss of Trent Williams is going to hurt the Niners in a huge way. He is arguably their best player. Zeke is playing well and still getting 15+ opportunities/game against a bad defense and he's at home.
Zeke>Wilson
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not sure I agree that Aiyuk is less consistent than the others. He's the single biggest beneficiary of Lance's injury IMO. 8 targets/game and a score over the last two. Tampa is a tough team at home and KC does spread the ball around...
But, I really want to see how the loss of Trent Williams impacts the Niners offense which gives me a slight hesitation to go all in on Aiyuk. But IMO the Niners are more locked in on their receiving options (Deebo, Aiyuk and, presumably Kittle) than KC who I think wants to go in many directions any given week.
With Allen out Palmer is a smart play for sure.
Palmer>Aiyuk>JuJu but I hope last two are an absolute coin toss.
Chaka
Footballguy
I try to monitor my recommendations in this thread and revisit them as the week goes on if I find my opinion is changing. I am starting to rethink James Robinson.
I think @hamsterdam and I are the only ones debating him so far. Hamsterdam I think I have changed my opinion and think James Robinson belongs in your lineup over Pierce & Bateman. He's getting 20 opportunities/game, has 4 TD I'm 3 games, catches a couple balls/week, has a good o-line and a supporting passing game that prevents keying on him. It's a tough matchup and we all worry the wheels may fall off but in week 4, of a short season, we shouldn't make decisions as if they already have.
Robinson>Pierce>Bateman and the last two are a real coin flip.
I think @hamsterdam and I are the only ones debating him so far. Hamsterdam I think I have changed my opinion and think James Robinson belongs in your lineup over Pierce & Bateman. He's getting 20 opportunities/game, has 4 TD I'm 3 games, catches a couple balls/week, has a good o-line and a supporting passing game that prevents keying on him. It's a tough matchup and we all worry the wheels may fall off but in week 4, of a short season, we shouldn't make decisions as if they already have.
Robinson>Pierce>Bateman and the last two are a real coin flip.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Honestly, I go with Robinson, Philly have been great against the pass, not great against the run at all. Week 1, Swift ran all over them, the only concern would be Philly going up big early, forcing the pass from Lawrence. Williams is an auto-start this week and Herbert gets the keys to what is basically the first run-only offense that's ever existed
Edit to add - Javonte is just missing true volume and gets taken out at frustrating times. I like your other 3 options more, though I personally have to start him this week
PPR league. Need one in the flex:
* T. Pollard vs. WASH -- Dallas could control this game. Should see his usual share of touches. Seems to break one every week.
or
* B. Aiyuk vs LAR -- This game could be a slugfest although SF has this team's number. Jimmy G not inspiring confidence, but the normally tough against the pass LAR are statistically lousy so far this year. Not sure I trust the data though.
Note: I"m a slight favorite to win.
Which?
Thanks
* T. Pollard vs. WASH -- Dallas could control this game. Should see his usual share of touches. Seems to break one every week.
or
* B. Aiyuk vs LAR -- This game could be a slugfest although SF has this team's number. Jimmy G not inspiring confidence, but the normally tough against the pass LAR are statistically lousy so far this year. Not sure I trust the data though.
Note: I"m a slight favorite to win.
Which?
Thanks
Different kind of question. Used to ask Bloom these questions. The question being, who is the best option to stash into next week trying to get next week's waiver pickup now. PPR league.
* J. Hill -- Everyone saying he showed "juice" and looked better than Dobbins. Edwards looming. Powerful offense.
* R. White -- Right now Fournette is the only game in town. He goes down, White could step right in...potentially when the WRs get healthy and this offense finally gets moving.
* D'Foreman -- CMC already banged up. Coach talking up Foreman. That said, this offense looks kinda sucky.
* I. Pacheco -- Preseason darling. CEL unimpressive. McKinnon in the mix. Is KC offense what it used to be?
* T. Allgerier -- Patterson dinged and he's a bit long in the tooth. This team likes to run. Hasn't looked that impressive in touches.
Note: My opponent next week actually owns CMS. Makes Foreman more attractive.
Who you grabbing for a lottery ticket?
Thanks
* J. Hill -- Everyone saying he showed "juice" and looked better than Dobbins. Edwards looming. Powerful offense.
* R. White -- Right now Fournette is the only game in town. He goes down, White could step right in...potentially when the WRs get healthy and this offense finally gets moving.
* D'Foreman -- CMC already banged up. Coach talking up Foreman. That said, this offense looks kinda sucky.
* I. Pacheco -- Preseason darling. CEL unimpressive. McKinnon in the mix. Is KC offense what it used to be?
* T. Allgerier -- Patterson dinged and he's a bit long in the tooth. This team likes to run. Hasn't looked that impressive in touches.
Note: My opponent next week actually owns CMS. Makes Foreman more attractive.
Who you grabbing for a lottery ticket?
Thanks
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Chaka
Footballguy
I think I would bench DJ, I hate to do it but the volume hasn't been there and the efficiency has been even worse. I would think they figure it out eventually but I don't have a lot of confidence in this, effectively lame duck, coaching staff.
The other options may not be great but the Jets throw a ton and with ARSB out Reynolds may be in line for a bit of a bump against a weak team.
Chaka
Footballguy
I like Pollard more here. I'm a big fan of Aiyuk but the loss of Trent Williams concerns me deeply on a offense that hadn't found their stride before he got injured.
Pollard>Aiyuk
Chaka
Footballguy
I would stick with asking Bloom.
Really they are all injury speculation options and I don't know where to begin on that. I also don't particularly like doing it.
I guess McCaffrey has the longest history and is apparently dealing with a thigh so, Foreman.
That one guy
Footballguy
RBs get .25/ppc and 1.5/ppr, pick 3:
NChubb
DHenry
LFournette
KHerbert
TE:
Higbee or reach for Konklin on wire
NChubb
DHenry
LFournette
KHerbert
TE:
Higbee or reach for Konklin on wire
Chaka
Footballguy
Blows my mind a little bit that Khalil Herbert is in this conversation. I . starting to have deep reservations about chasing points.
This just has the feeling of consensus thinking (hoping, in this case that Herbert can follow up a career performance with another one) and, maybe not really thinking about why Khalil Herbert never had a shot to start the last two seasons (barring injury). Different coaching staffs so it can't be draft loyalty?
Chubb, Henry & Fournette are all 20 touch 3 down+ guys, with proven track records. None of them have particularly rough matchups either.
Why are we thinking about Herbert in this group? Honest question that I am struggling with.
That one guy
Footballguy
I’ll admit, I’m a Herbert stan, though not over the other 3 in general fashion…that said, Indy has a decent run D (even though the King has indeed owned them recently)
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
All I know is that at 1.5 PPR, Fournette has gotta be there. He's too good out of the backfield not to be. The other three guys -- yes, all three -- have trouble or are just learning how to catch the ball out of the backfield. Herbert was having an issue in the pass game in camp.
Rank oder? Fournette, Chubb, Henry, Herbert
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jamaal Williams seems like the slam dunk start if the week.
Already a productive season so far, he’s going to touch the ball 20+ times in a game DET lacks ARSB, (which could also mean more receptions) and a GL back in a jackpot matchup against a Seattle defense that just made Patterson look like Walter Peyton. And DET is a solid offense so far.
And Williams has lesser competition for touches than Robinson (ETN), or Javonte (Gordon).
Easy call, IMO. I’m starting him as my RB2 with confidence this week. I wish I had him in every league.
ETA: DET at home, too. Man. Just gets better and better.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yup, absolutely get that logic, and thanks, and ATM I agree. But I still need to know which one to bench.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Std scoring w bonus at 100 yd rushing or receiving
Pick 2 RB
Pollard v. Wash
J. Williams @ LV
Penny @DT
Pick 2 WR
Olave v. Min (in England)
McLaurin v. Dallas
Jeudy @ LV
Bateman v. Buffalo
Currently playing Penny, Williams, Olave, McLaurin. Williams and McLaurin worry me this week. Pollard seems to be on the rise.
Pick 2 RB
Pollard v. Wash
J. Williams @ LV
Penny @DT
Pick 2 WR
Olave v. Min (in England)
McLaurin v. Dallas
Jeudy @ LV
Bateman v. Buffalo
Currently playing Penny, Williams, Olave, McLaurin. Williams and McLaurin worry me this week. Pollard seems to be on the rise.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh, you get two. Huh.
Bench Robinson. Javonte in the better matchup. It’s the all-Williams backfield.
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