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Week 05 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

12 Team Full PPR:

Need one for flex:

DJ Moore @ Washington
or
James Cook @ Jaguars
I think either are fair bets. Cook has to be very frustrating because he is on pace for almost 300 touches but doesn't seem to be even close to a consideration near the goal line.

DJ only getting 6 targets/game but his efficiency is incredible.

Tough call for sure. I really want to say Moore here but then I remember that the smart play is thinking Cook's volume should be king in this decision.

Even though my gut is telling me otherwise the smart play is
Cook>Moore
 
FPC scoring:
I know how you loathe tight ends,but I need to start one of these,who?:

C.Okonkwo @ Ind
D.Knox vs Jax

And,if S.Barkley is active Sunday but possibly on a "pitch count":
S.Barkley @ Mia or
Z,Flowers @ Pitt
LOL I'm pretty sure you ask that same TE question every week.
Knox seems to have a slightly better shot at finding the end zone because his team is much better so
Knox>Okonkwo

I think if Barkley plays you have to play him. I like Flowers a lot but Saquon is the Giants offense.
Saquon>Flowers
 
1.5 PPR, please pick 3:
Chase vs Cards
DJ Moore vs Commanders
Nico vs Falcons
Garrett vs Broncos

Thanks!
This is one of those situations that we will almost certainly get wrong.

DJ Moore just keeps producing even if we hate starting him, he goes out and makes something happen. Two games with 100+ yards, two games with a TD. One down game on the season and that was week 1. He could easily beat out all these guys this week. Unfortunately he is getting the least # of looks.

Ja'Marr is getting 10 looks per game but we all know the problems Cinci is dealing with. We know, or think we know, they will eventually turn it around but it has cost players in three of four weeks so far this year. Will this be the week? Uh....maybe?

Garrett sure seems to have the easiest matchup by a good margin. After the Dolphins game I was willing to give the Broncos a mulligan but to give up 500+ yards and 4 TD passes to Justin Fields & the Bears? No, that looks like a defense that has quit. I am surprised Vance Johnson still has a job. Wilson has managed some decent numbers in a bad situation. The Jets have faced 3 strong defenses (the Bills came out slow and New England is just okay) and Wilson has been...pretty good. Now they have an incredibly tasty matchup on the table... any team with Zach Wilson at QB has to make you nervous but still...

Nico is probably your steady Eddie choice. The game at Jacksonville feels like an outlier. This guy looks like he's going to see 9 targets/game for the rest of the year. Atlanta has a pretty strong pass defense so far this year so it may not be easy but, even if he doesn't lead your options this week it probably won't be due to lack of opportunity.

Yeah, total coin toss here and I imagine you are going to keep going back and forth until kickoff on Sunday (or tomorrow), I know I will be. At the moment I am leaning
Wilson>Nico>Chase>DJ

Ask me again in 5 minutes and you'll get a different answer.
Great detail. Thanks man!
 
Is the Panther pass defense and/or game script something to be concerned about for Goff starting at home? Enough to affect who I should start from these 3, at 4 points per pass TD?

Goff vs Panthers
Fields @ Commanders on Thursday
Russell Wilson vs Jets

The reason I ask is that Carolina has not been allowing many points to QBs -- yes one victim was Desmond Ridder scoring just 10 points, but Carr only scored 12, Geno 18, and Cousins 11

I think the choice is only between Goff or Fields because Wilson against the Jets D seems scary, but just making sure
 
Is the Panther pass defense and/or game script something to be concerned about for Goff starting at home? Enough to affect who I should start from these 3, at 4 points per pass TD?

Goff vs Panthers
Fields @ Commanders on Thursday
Russell Wilson vs Jets

The reason I ask is that Carolina has not been allowing many points to QBs -- yes one victim was Desmond Ridder scoring just 10 points, but Carr only scored 12, Geno 18, and Cousins 11

I think the choice is only between Goff or Fields because Wilson against the Jets D seems scary, but just making sure
The Panthers pass defense isn't very good, the problem is their run defense is so bad teams are only throwing the ball 27.5 times/game against them. Going into this game the Lions are 4th in rush attempts and 22nd in pass attempts. Even though Goff does play better at home, I think we all see what's probably coming in this game.

Fields isn't a good NFL QB but he isn't actually a terrible fantasy QB. Last week's game skews things but he is still a fringe starter with as much upside as any player at the position. Washington doesn't have a particularly scary defense either.

Wilson should probably be the start here IMO. The Jets defense simply isn't able to play as well as everyone had hoped. The talent is still there so you never know but Wilson is actually playing lights out and not getting any credit for it. There are a lot of things wrong in Denver but Russell Wilson's play is not one of those things.

Wilson>Fields>Goff
 
Is the Panther pass defense and/or game script something to be concerned about for Goff starting at home? Enough to affect who I should start from these 3, at 4 points per pass TD?

Goff vs Panthers
Fields @ Commanders on Thursday
Russell Wilson vs Jets

The reason I ask is that Carolina has not been allowing many points to QBs -- yes one victim was Desmond Ridder scoring just 10 points, but Carr only scored 12, Geno 18, and Cousins 11

I think the choice is only between Goff or Fields because Wilson against the Jets D seems scary, but just making sure
The Panthers pass defense isn't very good, the problem is their run defense is so bad teams are only throwing the ball 27.5 times/game against them. Going into this game the Lions are 4th in rush attempts and 22nd in pass attempts. Even though Goff does play better at home, I think we all see what's probably coming in this game.

Fields isn't a good NFL QB but he isn't actually a terrible fantasy QB. Last week's game skews things but he is still a fringe starter with as much upside as any player at the position. Washington doesn't have a particularly scary defense either.

Wilson should probably be the start here IMO. The Jets defense simply isn't able to play as well as everyone had hoped. The talent is still there so you never know but Wilson is actually playing lights out and not getting any credit for it. There are a lot of things wrong in Denver but Russell Wilson's play is not one of those things.

Wilson>Fields>Goff
Unexpected food for thought, I can see where you're coming from, thanks
 
.5ppr I’ve got start/sits at both RB and WR.

WR:
Deebo v DAL (SNF)
or
Christian Watson @ LV (MNF)

RB:
Pacheco @ MIN
or
Dameon Pierce @ ATL

Need one WR and one RB from the above.

Thanks brohs
 
.5ppr I’ve got start/sits at both RB and WR.

WR:
Deebo v DAL (SNF)
or
Christian Watson @ LV (MNF)

RB:
Pacheco @ MIN
or
Dameon Pierce @ ATL

Need one WR and one RB from the above.

Thanks brohs
Man, two guys on the mend with similar ceiling. Seems like a situation where you play the matchup because the difference is so dramatic.

Watson>Deebo

Personally I like Pacheco more than Pierce. Pierce has 7 more touches over four games but his efficiency has been brutal. And Atlanta seems to be able to make games ugly.

Minnesota could be a bit of a track meet but means more potential GL opportunities. This KC team doesn't seem built to just zing the ball all over the place. And Pacheco seems like the clear lead back, has been very efficient and is also seeing three targets/game

Pacheco>Pierce
 
.5ppr I’ve got start/sits at both RB and WR.

WR:
Deebo v DAL (SNF)
or
Christian Watson @ LV (MNF)

RB:
Pacheco @ MIN
or
Dameon Pierce @ ATL

Need one WR and one RB from the above.

Thanks brohs
Man, two guys on the mend with similar ceiling. Seems like a situation where you play the matchup because the difference is so dramatic.

Watson>Deebo

Personally I like Pacheco more than Pierce. Pierce has 7 more touches over four games but his efficiency has been brutal. And Atlanta seems to be able to make games ugly.

Minnesota could be a bit of a track meet but means more potential GL opportunities. This KC team doesn't seem built to just zing the ball all over the place. And Pacheco seems like the clear lead back, has been very efficient and is also seeing three targets/game

Pacheco>Pierce
Thank you sir.

This also confirms my desire to trade Deebo away in a package for DK.
 
Non-PPR

Need 2 Bjan vs Houston, Pollard @SF, or Achane vs NYG. Am I crazy to think about sitting Pollard?

Thank you, Chaka!
I have a lot of difficulty benching guys seeing 20+ opportunities per game for one who may only see 13 or so. It's tough to say what Achane's usage will be in a close game. Fortunately for Achane managers this isn't shaping up to be a close game at all, and Achane is playing at an otherworldly level.

Not sure I would do it but it's not at all crazy.
 
Standard scoring non-ppr league. I need 1 flex out of these two:

K. Herbert vs WAS - Finally got 18 rush attempts last week and produced. Will CHI ride the hot hand?
M. Pittman vs TEN - Indy will need to pass on them to have a chance or run Richardson. I'm already benching Moss. Targets dropped to 5 last week and 1 catch.
 
Back again for a flex spot:

1ppr, 6/TD

Z Flowers (@ PIT)
-or-
C Watson (@ LV)

Bateman is back and Odell may be as well. Obviously still waiting for Watson to get back in full regular season rhythm.
 
I'm starting Achane over Etienne. Over Swift too.

Interesting. Achane's stock has really risen, huh? Etienne gets a lot of touches almost guaranteed and Swift is playing lights out, too.

I guess that'll happen when you score four touchdowns one week and nab two the next on top of going over 100 yards.
 
Standard scoring non-ppr league. I need 1 flex out of these two:

K. Herbert vs WAS - Finally got 18 rush attempts last week and produced. Will CHI ride the hot hand?
M. Pittman vs TEN - Indy will need to pass on them to have a chance or run Richardson. I'm already benching Moss. Targets dropped to 5 last week and 1 catch.
Pittman

Back again for a flex spot:

1ppr, 6/TD

Z Flowers (@ PIT)
-or-
C Watson (@ LV)

Bateman is back and Odell may be as well. Obviously still waiting for Watson to get back in full regular season rhythm.
Flowers

1.0 PPR, 6/TD

Etienne or Achane? It’s hard not to want to trot out Achane until he doesn’t score 25+, but ETN feels safer.
ETN
 
.5 PPR
D Pierce @ ATL
N Collins @ATL
M Brown v CIN
T McLaurin v CHI

Who do I sit?

Mixon @Ari
ETN @BUF in London
Mostert v NYG
W William v PHI

Start 2

Thx
 
Full PPR, start two:

Brian Robinson vs Bears (TNF)
Pacheco @ Vikings
Jones @ Raiders (MNF)
Sanders @ Lions
Pierce @ Falcons

Leaning start BRob then reevaluate
 
PPR League. Need one for flex before tonight's game:

* D. Pierce @ATL - Pierce with the touches last week and looked good in open space. Also had a receiving TD but it was overturned by penalty. The HOU offense is coming along. HOU could be getting as many as 3 O lineman back this week. ATL run D seems much improved, but because the ATL offense is unlikely to run away with this game Pierce should get his touches and goal line touches.

or

* K. Herbert @WASH - Had his best game of the week last week and R. Johnson did little. Herbert was the clear #1 and had a great game...against the DEN D. In his previous games, it seemed like Herbert got scripted out. Tonight, WASH is favored by 5.5 so not sure CHI will have positive gamescript like last week...and the WASH D line is no joke. Can't determine if last week was a start of a trend or THE opportunity to bail out of this offense entirely and sell high on Herbert.

Which?

THanks
 
Need a WR flex in half PPR.

Dell (at ATL)
Doubs (at Las Vegas)
Jeudy (vs NYJ)
Jameson Williams if other Detroit WR’s sit (vs Carolina)
 
I'm starting Achane over Etienne. Over Swift too.

Interesting. Achane's stock has really risen, huh? Etienne gets a lot of touches almost guaranteed and Swift is playing lights out, too.

I guess that'll happen when you score four touchdowns one week and nab two the next on top of going over 100 yards.
Achane faces the NY Giants this week too so a better matchup along with his extremely great play and results recently. Etienne 20 carries for only 50 yards last week as well and plays the Bills. Swift plays the Rams.
 
Standard scoring non-ppr league. I need 1 flex out of these two:

K. Herbert vs WAS - Finally got 18 rush attempts last week and produced. Will CHI ride the hot hand?
M. Pittman vs TEN - Indy will need to pass on them to have a chance or run Richardson. I'm already benching Moss. Targets dropped to 5 last week and 1 catch.
Non-ppr is what makes this one difficult. Pittman has been a pretty decent target sponge, then again 1 3/4 of those games were with Minshew under center. Pittman has averaged what prorates to 8.4 targets/game in the 9 quarters Richardson has played. That's nice, not quite as great as the 11.4 Minshew peppered him with. Still, it's almost impossible to trust the Bears this week because they played the Broncos defense last week. What we saw could easily have been a mirage. I am personally hopeful that Chicago realizes their best RB is Herbert and I also think Herbert has the a better chance to fall into the endzone than Pittman (the Commanders do have the #29 scoring defense). It's a huge risk that I might waffle on 2 minutes before kickoff but because it's not PPR

Herbert>Pittman
 
Back again for a flex spot:

1ppr, 6/TD

Z Flowers (@ PIT)
-or-
C Watson (@ LV)

Bateman is back and Odell may be as well. Obviously still waiting for Watson to get back in full regular season rhythm.
Not worried about Odell or Bateman TBH. What have either done to cause concern? Doubs & Reed (maybe Musgrave too) are easily as big a concern to funnel targets away from Watson as either Andrews, Bateman & OBJ

The concern is simply that Watson is also a pretty darn good WR and they have very similar good matchups. As a Raider fan my gut tells me to always bet against the Raiders. Because it's PPR it should be pretty close and Watson may still be coming back slowly.

This one is definitely flip/floppable but my gut is telling me. I advise that you listen to yours over mine.
Watson>Flowers
 
1.0 PPR, 6/TD

Etienne or Achane? It’s hard not to want to trot out Achane until he doesn’t score 25+, but ETN feels safer.
It's not crazy to start Achane over Etienne, but I'm not sure I could sit with that decision.

The argument in favor is that we have seen Achane get decent usage on both sides of a blowout, and this game is shaping up as a blowout. Also Achane is obviously producing at an insane level. The problem is we really have no idea what to expect from him when the Dolphins are in a close game.

Etienne is seeing 21 opportunities/game, which is exactly what you want to see. His efficiency has been meh and they are definitely facing a tough opponent. Buffalo is only a 4-5 hour flight to Heathrow so I don't expect being in London will have any more impact than flying to California.

The question is do you want to bet on a Dolphins blowout? It's going to be 85 in Miami with 65% humidity and the Giants are going to be sitting in the sun. Those aren't "brutal" conditions like the Buffalo/Mia game last year but they are still going to suck for the Giants. Yeah, as a gambling man I can definitely see taking the risk.

Achane>Etienne
 
PPR 1qb start Justin Fields? I worry it might be a low scoring game.
or Matt Stafford? Seems it will be a scoring fest.
what does everyone think?
 
.5 PPR
D Pierce @ ATL
N Collins @ATL
M Brown v CIN
T McLaurin v CHI

Who do I sit?

Mixon @Ari
ETN @BUF in London
Mostert v NYG
W William v PHI

Start 2

Thx
I sit Brown and don't really think twice about it. Sure, you may regert it but it feels like a classic case of chasing points.

The second one is definitely tougher. The Bengals have been the biggest disappointment in the league so far and the Cardinals have been the biggest surprise. I think we all believe both of those situations will change dramatically at some point. Burrow is off the injury report, Higgins may be out but Boyd is a fine #2 and Mixon is a solid volume play against a Cardinals team that has been pretty rough against the run. To be fair they have had a pretty rough schedule in that regard (B.Robinson, Saquon, Pollard & McCaffrey) but Mixon is somewhere between Robinson & the others so I expect him to have a safe floor and good volume.

Etienne has a tough matchup on paper at least but, so far the Bills D has been good against the run because their offense is forcing teams to abandon the run early. 2nd fewest attempts against but 20th in yards given up and last in yards per carry allowed. Etienne has an opportunity but, so far, the Bills have mostly bottled up opposing RBs. Yes Achane had a great outing in a game that was decided by halftime.

My feeling about Mostert is the same as my feelings towards Achane The question is do you want to bet on a Dolphins blowout? It's going to be 85 in Miami with 65% humidity and the Giants are going to be sitting in the sun. Those aren't "brutal" conditions like the Buffalo/Mia game last year but they are still going to suck for the Giants. Yeah, as a gambling man I can definitely see taking the risk. Another good thing in Mostert's favor, IMO, is he gave way to Achane pretty early in the second half against Buffalo. I read that as deciding to not risk injury in a game that was out of hand. YMMV on that interpretation. Either way if you expect Miami to dominate it's not a bad idea to start your Dolphin RBs. I do wonder, though, if it's a blowout does Mostert sit early again? Probably.

Betting against Kyren has probably been my most consistently bad call in these threads this season. But, darnit, how can I not be concerned when, arguably, the best run D in the league rolls into town? 3rd in att, 2nd in yds, 7th in TDs & 5th in ypc (3.3). And they have an offense that takes opposing running games out of the picture. To be fair, they haven't exactly faced a who's who of opposing RBs (Rhamondre, Mattison, Rachaad & B.Robinson) so you can't just write the guy off.

Really can go in any direction here and we probably won't get it 100% correct but hopefully everyone finishes close enough to each other to not hurt.
Mixon>Kyren>Etienne>Mostert
 
Full PPR, start two:

Brian Robinson vs Bears (TNF)
Pacheco @ Vikings
Jones @ Raiders (MNF)
Sanders @ Lions
Pierce @ Falcons

Leaning start BRob then reevaluate
Yes. Agree 100%

The choice for the other spot, IMO, comes down to Pacheco & Jones.

I am very much a fan of Pacheco but if we here that Jones is a full go all week I probably lean towards him. He can be such a TD machine and I don't see this Packer offense ever moving away from him when he's healthy. But monitor the situation.

B.Robinson

A.Jones>Pacheco
 
.3 PPR and scaled bonuses for long TD's (up to 15 points for 50+ yds). Please pick 2:
K Herbert, McLaurin, Dotson, Jameson Williams (only if ARSB looks to miss the game but won't know before TNF kickoff?)...thanks!
 
PPR League. Need one for flex before tonight's game:

* D. Pierce @ATL - Pierce with the touches last week and looked good in open space. Also had a receiving TD but it was overturned by penalty. The HOU offense is coming along. HOU could be getting as many as 3 O lineman back this week. ATL run D seems much improved, but because the ATL offense is unlikely to run away with this game Pierce should get his touches and goal line touches.

or

* K. Herbert @WASH - Had his best game of the week last week and R. Johnson did little. Herbert was the clear #1 and had a great game...against the DEN D. In his previous games, it seemed like Herbert got scripted out. Tonight, WASH is favored by 5.5 so not sure CHI will have positive gamescript like last week...and the WASH D line is no joke. Can't determine if last week was a start of a trend or THE opportunity to bail out of this offense entirely and sell high on Herbert.

Which?

THanks
Man Pierce's inefficiency has to be killing managers this season. But he's getting almost 19 opportunities/game pretty consistently. The Falcons defense has been pretty strong against the run from a fantasy perspective too.

The Commanders D line isn't a joke but their scoring defense has been pretty awful, giving up 33, 37 & 34 points over the last three. I can understand that against the Bills & Eagles, but the Broncos? They're better but I'm not sold on that offense just yet.

Yes, this is 100% about volume vs... hope??? I really want to say Herbert (I recommended him over Pittman in a non-PPR format above) but, I think reliably seeing 19 opportunities is probably the smart play.

Pierce>Herbert
 
6pt Passing TDs

Fields @WAS
or
Stroud @ATL
Upside vs consistency. The Was defense has been giving up points to good teams but they have a great d-line and Chicago has been giving up sacks in bunches. Personally I think I need to see Fields string at least two big games together.

It really depends on what you think you need but I think the smart move is probably
Stroud>Fields
 
Need a WR flex in half PPR.

Dell (at ATL)
Doubs (at Las Vegas)
Jeudy (vs NYJ)
Jameson Williams if other Detroit WR’s sit (vs Carolina)
I think it comes down to Doubs v Dell.

Jeudy hasn't been a big part of the offense yet, he should be at some point but something isn't working yet. I'd rather wait.
Love Jameson's talent but the way this coaching staff works he will see limited snaps even if ARSB is out. Also they could end up running 50x against Carolina.

Personally I think Doubs is the choice here. Strong matchup, good track record and I don't think his role changes with the return of Watson, Reed is the guy who was filling that position. Doubs has a good connection with Love, gets some good looks in the RZ and has played well. He isn't exciting but he's productive.

Love Dell but I think we need to recognize the up and down nature that will probably be his rookie season. And I can't say he's a better upside play either as Doubs has a 2 TD game and a 9 reception game under his belt.

Doubs>Dell
 
PPR 1qb start Justin Fields? I worry it might be a low scoring game.
or Matt Stafford? Seems it will be a scoring fest.
what does everyone think?
Tonight we have the #31 scoring defense vs the #29 scoring defense. Vegas has the O/U at around 44.5 (I think, I seldom look up odds). Fields hasn't been terrible as a fantasy QB but he's still a huge disappointment so far. But we need to remember he can still make something amazing happen in a heartbeat.

The o/u for the Phi/LA game is 50, which feels high to me, and Stafford has been playing only okay. He hasn't notched a game with multiple TDs yet this season (didn't throw a TD in week 1). He also may be hobbled with a hip injury, even if he doesn't have a designation this week. Philadelphia can be passed on, that's for sure but they can also get after the passer.

At the end of the day Fields and he's 3-0-1 head to head so far with Stafford this year.

Fields>Stafford
 
.3 PPR and scaled bonuses for long TD's (up to 15 points for 50+ yds). Please pick 2:
K Herbert, McLaurin, Dotson, Jameson Williams (only if ARSB looks to miss the game but won't know before TNF kickoff?)...thanks!
McLaurin for sure. Bears defense is really bad and McLaurin is really good.

You can't start Jameson because all your other options play tonight.

Between Herbert & Dotson it's tougher. While I like to believe Herbert will continue to be the man going forward, we can't trust it yet. He definitely has an opportunity. The problem is Dotson is also pretty talented. Starting two WRs from the same team isn't always ideal but they both have talent and there is an opportunity for Howell to have a big game this week. This is really about your personal philosophy about spreading out risk vs trying to capture all of a big QB performance.

Gut call
Dotson>Herbert

This is an interesting scenario for me. Earlier I recommended Herbert>Pittman (non-PPR) and I would almost certainly start Pittman over Dotson this week in a full PPR but this is 0.3 PPR so it's more about the TDs and big plays so, this is where I am landing.
 
standard league No PPR

mostert vs NYG
B Robinson vs Chi
Jacobs vs GB
Connor vs Cinn
Pierce vs ATL?

need 2. Presently have B Rob. and Jacobs in lineup?
 

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