Tanner9919
Footballguy
They might lean on etienne to keep buffalo's offense off the field. run the ball like mad.
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Week 05 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Oh there is no doubt that will be the plan but how successful will it be? Breece Hall torched Buff week 1 on just a few carries but that was week 1. Week 2 they absolutely shut down Jacobs. Week 3 Robinson did well with his measley 9 carries but guess what Buff torched them 37-3.... kinda what Im worried about happening here with this Jax offense that is sputtering. Week 4 Achane certainly did great and his ypc was over 10. His real damage though was scoring 4 tds something Ettiene just hasnt done this year. Ettiene this year has survived soley on volume as his ypc has been very mediocre. I have no doubt his ypc in this game will be better but his saving grace in this game may be catching passes. Overall Id say its almost impossible for him to have a bad game but I cant see any way short of the Miami/NYG game end up being a Mostert game (not at all impossible) that Ettienne outscores Achane. Last thought. Jax , at least this year so far, doesnt seem to have the overall Offense like Miami does which allowed Achane to go off last week against this same Buffalo team. I expect Ettienne have a good game but not as good as Achane.
Final thought: I have Bijan Robinson, Breece hall who is supposedly off carry restrictions playing Denver, Ettiene, and Mostert. This week I have Ettienne as my rb 3.
With the J. Taylor news, thinking of dropping Z. Moss. He's my #8 RB now.
Would pick up R. Rivers or R. Dowdle.
Sounds like Taylor is on a snap count this week, but I'm not starting Moss regardless against the TN D. Not exactly a great stretch of matchups coming either: @Jax, CLE, NO.
Moss worth hanging on to?
Thanks
Would pick up R. Rivers or R. Dowdle.
Sounds like Taylor is on a snap count this week, but I'm not starting Moss regardless against the TN D. Not exactly a great stretch of matchups coming either: @Jax, CLE, NO.
Moss worth hanging on to?
Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
Denver seems like a must start against type of defense for sure (that can change in a hurry as they get rid of malcontents like Gregory) and I heard the same about Hall's snap counts. Hall absolutely seems like a smart start. His talent is so obvious when I see him play.
Like Mostert too but there are a lot of guys on that offense who can steal the show, including Mostert. So far Achane seems to be the guy they turn too later in blowout wins or losses. We haven't seen them in a close game and I doubt we will this week either.
I refuse to put faith in a 6th year WR breakout when you have obviously better options.
Mims doesn't get nearly enough consistent volume to start over your other guys.
Watson is super interesting in this matchup but I think we have to be a little cautious when you have good options
I legit coin flip between Mostert & Hall. Bigger piece of smaller pie or smaller piece of the bigger pie. Go with your gut I think I'm going to lean
Hall>Mostert>Watson
Chaka
Footballguy
Considering your options and how well Moss has played, I might hold for another week. I would also try to ship him to the Taylor manager.
Thanks. I am considering Reynolds ONLY if Amon-ra doesnt play. They have Jamison coming back but I cant imagine he has a huge workload first week back. They have Kalif Raymond who might very well be a sneaky play this week if reynolds doesnt doesnt end up being the play. Im not expecting a breakout but reynolds is wr 37 in my league and that includes a zero 2 weeks ago when he didnt play much. Seems like to me he has legitimate wr3 with legitimate wr2 upside this week sans the sun god. FBG has Watson only 2 spots ahead of Reynolds in my scoring this week.
Chaka
Footballguy
I understand the ARSB part; I just don't think I'm going to rely on a sixth year guy who hasn't done much to have a big game when you have so many other options.
Lets look at that Vaccum. Swift has been great. Getting the carries and doing well with them. His main issue is having too many other options to vulture tds. His opponent has only been torched by 1 rb. Who DOESNT get torched by McCaffrey? and....they have given up only 2 tds to rbs in 4 games, 1 to CMAC. Basically you are matching up a guy who certainly will be getting enough carries to consider vs:
Wilson who is playing a team that couldnt scheme the waterboy out of the game has silently not done horrible against defenses from Buf, dal, NE, and last week KC. The passing game suddenly didnt look bad when the defense against them got easier . Though he has been td and big play dependent in the first 3 games the last game when the d was easier on him he caught 9 passes on 14 targets for 60 yards. I cant fathom him having a bad game against Denver without an injury.
I KNOW the book says to take the steady points and if you see yourself as a decent favorite then I can understand starting steady eddie but if you feel like you may need more upside Wilson has to be the play doesnt he?
BOTH pretty nice choices for a flex option to be sure.
I start wilson over swift by a small amount and wilson over swift if I feel like I need upside by quite a bit. Good luck on your decision. These are the decisions that both make ff dificult but also makes it so much fun. Give me a team with pretty much no choices and I do well but get bored. Give me a team with lots of lineup decisions and Im sure to screw it up...and have fun doing it.
edit to add....I see both games are 4pm games so if the upside argument I made about your question resonated with you, you have the option to start the one you decide on then change it if you feel you need to once part of your games are in. I always look for these floor vs upside decisions and see if they can be delayed at all till I have more information.
shadrap
Footballguy
nope. Handcuff value only now.
I agree handcuff value only but given how well Moss played he has to be one of the top handcuffs. If I didnt have room to carry him I think I could surely find a trading partner. If I were the Taylor owner who has felt the brunt of 4 weeks without a starter you bet Id be willing to make a reasonable deal for his backup. In my league well over half of all backups are rostered and I can guarantee Moss would definitely be one.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Good call. I'm "supposedly" favored about 60%, but also with total points being the one and only tiebreaker for the playoff seeding, it's always nice to have upside guys in there. So yeah maybe I line up Wilson and then if and only if I end up slaugtering in the early games, I audible to Swift.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is a great question. I'm not sure of Wilson's upside. Put it this way: Do you think Zach builds on what happened last week and has another career game or does Zach Wilson turn into the quarterback that earned the lowest starting QBR rating in each of the past two years?
Do you start Swift when thinking about it that way knowing his TDs will get vultured most likely? It's tough. On one hand, TD plunges are what you are hoping for out of the RB decision, but what if he scores from outside the ten or the twenty like he almost did against TB? Then you're golden.
It's a tough decision. I think it comes down to a coin flip, really.
Chaka
Footballguy
I get it, sincerely I do but I'm still 100%
Swift>Wilson
Too much production to ignore IMO.
Chaka
Footballguy
What's the argument in favor of Rice over your other options?
I see all of them far more locked into their opportunities than Rice.
It's Mahomes, right? I get that but I probably wouldn't go that route myself. Touches generally rule the day in this hobby (my philosophy, YMMV).
I still probably lean Mattison because of the volume (I think Akers becomes a factor only of Mattison falters, which is a distinct possibility).
Pierce is a huge disappointment facing a semi-tough opponent and the Texans offense seems to run through the air.
Wan'dale actually seems to be the #1 WR immediately on this offense, which has unfortunately been terrible. But I think his targets are there.
So, why Rice?
Chaka
Footballguy
IMO when the disparity is this big you play your best player not the matchup.
Dallas>Houston
Between injuries and byes, it's come to this in a PPR league (which I wouldn't have felt so bad about when the season started):
Najee vs BAL
Warren vs BAL
Javonte vs NYJ (4 PM game)
I'm guessing Javonte plays despite being questionable with the hip injury, but even if he does, might he be uncertain enough that I'm better off with (shudder) capturing the Steeler RB output?
Or if I go with Javonte, is Warren a better PPR option than Najee now? Warren's literally outscored Najee all 4 weeks so far
Najee vs BAL
Warren vs BAL
Javonte vs NYJ (4 PM game)
I'm guessing Javonte plays despite being questionable with the hip injury, but even if he does, might he be uncertain enough that I'm better off with (shudder) capturing the Steeler RB output?
Or if I go with Javonte, is Warren a better PPR option than Najee now? Warren's literally outscored Najee all 4 weeks so far
In no game on any continent do you pick anybody over Dallas unless or until they have quite a number of bad outings. They are on fire.
First thing split the 2 pitt rbs..... In ppr I think Warren is a few rungs above a Najee who finally showed signs of life last week. Javonte practiced in full friday so I expect him to play but with McLaughlin looking so good will it end up being 50-50?
I think in ppr I would go warren>>>> Najee>>>>Javonte... at least you have a clue what you have in Pitt.
Chaka
Footballguy
Can't start Javonte with any confidence IMO with this little info about his hip. But, considering your options...maybe?
Najee and Warren are in almost a 50/50 split so it's essentially a pick 'em. Warren will absolutely get more targets but, IMO if by some miracle Pittsburgh gets near the goal line it will absolutely be Najee who gets the call. And Najee has been pretty decent on the ground, where Warren has struggled.
I hate all your options but if I squint and try to balance opportunity and upside I think I go
Najee>Javonte>Warren
Chaka
Footballguy
Kupp being back definitely changes the calculus and Philly is definitely vulnerable to the pass. Buffalo is also a tough out.
But Stafford, despite what he has done for Puka and Atwell has been substandard as a fantasy QB. He's still waiting on his first multi-TD game.
Unfortunately Lawrence hasn't been any better and he doesn't have the best WR in the game coming back this week.
I don't love recommending the old guy over the young, allegedly, dynamic guy but
Stafford>Lawrence
I have zero opinion about the TEs total guess here so...
Higbee>Kincaid
I guess???
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
Assuming Amon-Ra is out, I need to pivot to one of these, ppr:
G Pickens vs Ravens
T Dell vs Falcons
edit: If it makes a difference, I am also starting Stroud, and Pierce due to byes. Starting 3 Texans in the same game is not a situation I would have predicted back in August.
G Pickens vs Ravens
T Dell vs Falcons
edit: If it makes a difference, I am also starting Stroud, and Pierce due to byes. Starting 3 Texans in the same game is not a situation I would have predicted back in August.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Dell for Variance, Pickens for floor I think. I think Pickens bounces back a bit
TartanLion
Footballguy
I think Reynolds could be a decent play if Amon-Ra doesn’t go. Goff trusts him and has played with him a long time. When Amon-Ra missed week 4 against Seattle last season Reynolds went 7-81-1 on 8 targets. That came amongst a 4 week spell where he scored 11.3, 12.6, 17.6, 12.2 in 0.5ppr and he’s already had a 5-66-2 this season again against Seattle. Of course, if today is a low scoring game unlike those Seattle ones, then he’s a risk.
FWIW I’m considering plugging him straight in for Amon-Ra in my re-draft where I’m also down Barkley most likely ( starting Monty and Rhamondre ) and have Godwin on bye. Looks like it’s going to be Amon-Ra and Barkley in flex replaced by Wandale and Reynolds
FWIW I’m considering plugging him straight in for Amon-Ra in my re-draft where I’m also down Barkley most likely ( starting Monty and Rhamondre ) and have Godwin on bye. Looks like it’s going to be Amon-Ra and Barkley in flex replaced by Wandale and Reynolds
D question...for next week. Trying to beat the scramble on the waiver wire:
* KC D vs DEN - Wilson actually doing quite well. J. Williams probably back next week.
* DET @ TB - D looks legit. TB with some firepower though and at home.
* LV vs NE - Bad D vs Bad offense. LV at home though.
Thanks
* KC D vs DEN - Wilson actually doing quite well. J. Williams probably back next week.
* DET @ TB - D looks legit. TB with some firepower though and at home.
* LV vs NE - Bad D vs Bad offense. LV at home though.
Thanks
PrinceOfTides
Footballguy
Start the saints defense or the lions defense?
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Gabe Davis or Christian Watson at flex. Flipping coin I think.
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
It's a toss up and I could go either way on this.
I honestly don't see a way to arrive at a way to say one is a more reasonable option. Their utilization metrics are eerily similar.
For me it comes down to the fact that Houston is a much more pass heavy offense. 20 more attempts, 15 more completions, 388 more yards, 3 more TDs, 4 fewer INTs.
And, on paper, Baltimore is a better pass defense.
Dell>Pickens
Chaka
Footballguy
Tossup between Detroit & KC. You know I view Ds as random number generators but given the choice I probably like Detroit's D-line more so I probably lean towards them.
Chaka
Footballguy
Can you start both?
I probably go with the Lions because they're at home but both are good options.
Chaka
Footballguy
Absolutely a coin toss. Never been a big Davis fan but, dude can score in bunches.
But so can Watson and I like his matchup more. I also think if he's healthy he is a bigger piece of the GB offense than Davis is in Buffalo.
Yes, coin toss. For me
Watson>Davis
markrc99
Footballguy
Totally agree volume is king, but that's just it, if Minnesota isn't effective running the football, is Mattison really going to see a heavy dose? If their blitzing of the QB & defend the run along the way doesn't work against Mahomes & they fall behind, what then? It's not what I think, but rather what I fear will happen. He gets scripted out &/or is ineffectiveness & that I also have Hockenson. On a separate team with Pierce is also Miles Sanders, who I also don't like today, a road date with Detroit.
Wan'dale I have on a third team. There, it's him or Najee in my flex spot. A similar circumstance, easy to assume Harris will see more touches but even if that's true, what has been the quality of his touches? Harris has been decent vs the Ravens, his game this past January he was excellent. But in the three games against them prior to that, not really. Lamar is my QB & if he struggles, that would seem to weigh in favor of Harris. My opponent has Josh Allen & traded for Pacheco this week... I have Jackson as a total flop this week.
So, really it's more a lack of confidence in the players I have & liking the matchup for both Robinson & Rice. Probably just another mirage, but I'm weighing that each of them could assume a greater role.
Chaka
Footballguy
LOL
NFC
I think it has to be Wan'dale because the Giants are very likely going to have to throw a ton this week and the NE/NO game shapes up to be ugly.
But really, flip a coin
Wan'dale>Bourne
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Having late in the week doubts, standard scoring. Just need to pick 1 of the following options
Aiyuk vs Cowboys - horrible matchup but plenty productive this season when healthy
K.Williams vs Eagles - Eagles defensive front is pretty good, feeling a down game with more passing probably
J.Mclaughlin vs Jets - probably not considering him too closely but an option if Javonte misses
Thanks
Aiyuk vs Cowboys - horrible matchup but plenty productive this season when healthy
K.Williams vs Eagles - Eagles defensive front is pretty good, feeling a down game with more passing probably
J.Mclaughlin vs Jets - probably not considering him too closely but an option if Javonte misses
Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
It's not an ideal choice overall. I have been monitoring Rice on my WW because he's a rookie, and his snap counts seem to be trending up. Hopefully that continues as he gets more expensive. He has as good an opportunity as anyone to emerge, assuming someone eventually emerges at all.
No real problem going with Rice as your other options do have low floors too. But I think Wan'dale is the best combination of opportunity and upside this week.
Chaka
Footballguy
McLaughlin not an option IMO to many unknowns and you have better options.
At this point I'm think we can't keep doubting Kyren. I don't honestly think he's very good but the Rams are feeding the heck out of him, particularly at the GL. Kupp being back should also provide a bump for the offense.
I see the problem with Aiyuk but my bigger concern is the Niners offense runs through McCaffrey and Deebo is always an option to put up a monster. Let's not forget Little either, I doubt he remains this underutilized all season.
Kyren>Aiyuk>McLaughlin
UncleZen
Footballguy
I have the unusual problem of too many RB's. Looking to move at least 1 for a STUD WR. In the meantime, trying to pick the flex spot, standard scoring, no PPR:
Pacheco vs Min - This is who the fantasy pro's pick but I'm not convinced.
Kamara vs NE - This is who I'm leaning towards but lack of TD's concerns me. Seems the best matchup.
K Williams vs Phi - Huge volume, terrible match
Taylor vs TEN - Not starting. I can wait to see what he does this week.
In the other RB positions is Henry and Jacobs and I feel like they are going to roll now after last week.
Pacheco vs Min - This is who the fantasy pro's pick but I'm not convinced.
Kamara vs NE - This is who I'm leaning towards but lack of TD's concerns me. Seems the best matchup.
K Williams vs Phi - Huge volume, terrible match
Taylor vs TEN - Not starting. I can wait to see what he does this week.
In the other RB positions is Henry and Jacobs and I feel like they are going to roll now after last week.
UncleZen
Footballguy
Agreed.
UncleZen
Footballguy
Agree with this.
UncleZen
Footballguy
I picked up the Lions D for this matchup this week.
markrc99
Footballguy
I have the Saints on two of three teams & have been streaming DEF/ST on my third team & opted for Detroit. Very important, in my leagues we did away with that god-awful 10pt shutout bonus. In it's place we added the return game, which I highly recommend. In my leagues, besides the turnovers & sacks, both NE & CAR have given up a healthy share of return yards, so they're both favorable matchups, supposedly.
But you're in standard, I would weigh whether Derek Carr has a bounce-back game, that they're on the road, an inter-conference game. Detroit is home, a conference game & a game you would think they take. Tough call, good luck & to your team!
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Ugh, my four rostered RBs are Saquon, AJones, Javonte and Herbert. Herbert already played this week, it was just reported that Saquon is out, and Williams is reportedly a GTD.
Once Saquon is officially declared out I can put him on IR and pick up Breida, but since that's a 1:00 game and Broncos are at 4, I most likely won't know for sure at that point whether Javonte is playing. And if I wait and he's declared out, there's pretty much no one left to start.
So not really a WDIS question, more ... do I really have to start Breida?
Once Saquon is officially declared out I can put him on IR and pick up Breida, but since that's a 1:00 game and Broncos are at 4, I most likely won't know for sure at that point whether Javonte is playing. And if I wait and he's declared out, there's pretty much no one left to start.
So not really a WDIS question, more ... do I really have to start Breida?
UncleZen
Footballguy
Perine>Gallup>Westbrook-Ikhine>Raymond is how I would rank them but yes, ugly.
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