where will CJ play in 2014?Jets sign him (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

Good for the Jets, not so good for fantasy.

CJ will be used more than most think. A lot more.

Especially when Ivory gets hurt.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Good for the Jets, not so good for fantasy.

CJ will be used more than most think. A lot more.

Agree with this. He's clearly the lead dog, and will be running behind the best line he's had in years. They didn't sign him to put him in a RBBC with Ivory and Powell. Pretty big boost in FF IMO.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Good for the Jets, not so good for fantasy.

CJ will be used more than most think. A lot more.

Especially when Ivory gets hurt.

or when they realize cj is the superior player

 

[humpback]

Good for the Jets, not so good for fantasy.

CJ will be used more than most think. A lot more.

Agree with this. He's clearly the lead dog, and will be running behind the best line he's had in years. They didn't sign him to put him in a RBBC with Ivory and Powell. Pretty big boost in FF IMO.

Disagree with pretty much all of this.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

 

[Shutout]

surprised Atl hasn't made a public move, they must be planning on drafting an RB

that seems likely.

Same thought here. I guess they are ok with using a pick on a RB because they can't possibly be thinking SJAX can do it at this point.

 

[cstu]

surprised Atl hasn't made a public move, they must be planning on drafting an RB

that seems likely.

Same thought here. I guess they are ok with using a pick on a RB because they can't possibly be thinking SJAX can do it at this point.

Whoever they draft in the 5th round is going to be this year's Stacy.

 

[Shutout]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

 

[Shutout]

surprised Atl hasn't made a public move, they must be planning on drafting an RB

that seems likely.

Same thought here. I guess they are ok with using a pick on a RB because they can't possibly be thinking SJAX can do it at this point.

Whoever they draft in the 5th round is going to be this year's Stacy.

That's hard for me to buy just because the Rams last year had a void and an open competition. There was a role to be filled. But with a player with the reputation of Chris Johnson, it is going to be HARD for a late drafted rookie to come in , in NYC, and steal the reps it will take to make that impact. YOu know how it goes: Rex and the Jets, in that scenario, would defer to the veteran...probably hang on to that idea too long IF Johnson flopped, and by the time they turned it over, fantasy leaguers don't care.

 

[Sweet Love]

As a Jets fan, I am happy they have this settled. Was getting worried that they would go into the draft without a compliment to Ivory and find themselves jumping on a Mason-type in Round 2/3...not that I would be opposed to getting another RB, but to using a pick on it when you could have had it without the pick.

 

[humpback]

surprised Atl hasn't made a public move, they must be planning on drafting an RB

that seems likely.

Same thought here. I guess they are ok with using a pick on a RB because they can't possibly be thinking SJAX can do it at this point.

Whoever they draft in the 5th round is going to be this year's Stacy.

That's hard for me to buy just because the Rams last year had a void and an open competition. There was a role to be filled. But with a player with the reputation of Chris Johnson, it is going to be HARD for a late drafted rookie to come in , in NYC, and steal the reps it will take to make that impact. YOu know how it goes: Rex and the Jets, in that scenario, would defer to the veteran...probably hang on to that idea too long IF Johnson flopped, and by the time they turned it over, fantasy leaguers don't care.

Pretty sure he's talking about Atlanta.

 

[BoltNlava]

surprised Atl hasn't made a public move, they must be planning on drafting an RB

that seems likely.

Same thought here. I guess they are ok with using a pick on a RB because they can't possibly be thinking SJAX can do it at this point.

Whoever they draft in the 5th round is going to be this year's Stacy.

That's hard for me to buy just because the Rams last year had a void and an open competition. There was a role to be filled. But with a player with the reputation of Chris Johnson, it is going to be HARD for a late drafted rookie to come in , in NYC, and steal the reps it will take to make that impact. YOu know how it goes: Rex and the Jets, in that scenario, would defer to the veteran...probably hang on to that idea too long IF Johnson flopped, and by the time they turned it over, fantasy leaguers don't care.

Pretty sure he's talking about Atlanta.

This.

 

[bostonfred]

Over/under?

220 carries 1100 yards, 5 TD

40 receptions 280 yards, 2 TD

 

[jurb26]

Over/under?

220 carries 1100 yards, 5 TD

40 receptions 280 yards, 2 TD

5 YPC seems optimistic. I'd put it around 4.5. My guess;

225 carries 1012 yds, 5 TDs.

35 receptions 260 yds, 1 TD.

 

[jurb26]

2 years, $8M with another $1M in incentives available.

 

[ClevelandRocks]

I'd say just over on both.

I wouldn't say this is a great fit, CJ is better than Ivory but how much better at this point?

I think they're banking on the fact that Rex can get the most out of him. Which may or may not work, this move is very meh for me.

The comical part will be Vick attempting to tell CJ where the blitz is coming from(he has no clue) and watching CJ attempt to block(not a strong suit).

 

[cstu]

Over/under?

220 carries 1100 yards, 5 TD

40 receptions 280 yards, 2 TD

5 YPC seems optimistic. I'd put it around 4.5.My guess;

225 carries 1012 yds, 5 TDs.

35 receptions 260 yds, 1 TD.

210 carries 900 yds, 4 TDs.

45 receptions 360 yds, 1 TD.

 

[biju]

In line with projections already stated: I'm thinking 1150-1250 YFS and somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7 TDs. It also wouldn't be a massive shock to see him hit his decline however--one his speed goes he won't survive long.

 

[Todem]

I will say it again…..when you can have a guy like Vick (if he can stay healthy and that has been a big if lately) and CJ in the same backfield…..lot's of space will be available.

When rookie Vince Young took over for an 0-6 Titans team…..CJ's numbers also started to blow up on a week to week basis. His best season.

Not saying he will blow up like that…..no….but he will have a fairly good FF season if the chips fall right and I also think Rex will fire this squad up. So they added

Vick

Decker

CJ

And also have a second year kid in Stephen Hill who has some nice physical tools and can also add some play making ability.

I hate the Jets…….but I like their prospects on offense far better than last years team. Ryan did an incredible job with the hand he was dealt last season.

 

[Archer]

I still think Ivory is the better RB to own at this point. But I'm just seeing CJ in 2014 like Portis and Alexander at the end of their careers. The fall is quick, and pretty far...

 

[Archer]

now watch him rush for 1500+ this year lol

 

[cstu]

I still think Ivory is the better RB to own at this point. But I'm just seeing CJ in 2014 like Portis and Alexander at the end of their careers. The fall is quick, and pretty far...

Both fell off due to injuries. I can see the same thing happening to CJ if he gets hurt but right now while he's healthy I expect a decent season.

 

[cstu]

I will say it again…..when you can have a guy like Vick (if he can stay healthy and that has been a big if lately) and CJ in the same backfield…..lot's of space will be available.

When rookie Vince Young took over for an 0-6 Titans team…..CJ's numbers also started to blow up on a week to week basis. His best season.

Not saying he will blow up like that…..no….but he will have a fairly good FF season if the chips fall right and I also think Rex will fire this squad up. So they added

Vick

Decker

CJ

And also have a second year kid in Stephen Hill who has some nice physical tools and can also add some play making ability.

I hate the Jets…….but I like their prospects on offense far better than last years team. Ryan did an incredible job with the hand he was dealt last season.

Third year, only 23 but hasn't shown that he's an NFL receiver yet.

 

[cstu]

No question this offense is light years parsecs better than last year.

 

[domvin]

Chris Johnson says Jets visit went well but no decision yet

Posted by Curtis Crabtree on April 15, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT

Free agent running back Chris Johnson visited with the New York Jets on Tuesday. It was his first visit since being released by the Tennessee Titans earlier this month.

After visiting with the Jets, Johnson decided to take in Tuesday night’s game between the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets. While at the game, he spoke with multiple reporters regarding his visit.

Per Josina Anderson of ESPN, Johnson said “I had a great visit with the Jets. I’m just taking it one day at a time.”

Johnson reiterated those thoughts to Peter Botte of the New York Daily News but added he’s “not ready to make my decision.“

Johnson had a down year in 2013 for Tennessee but still posted his sixth straight 1,000-yard season. However, the 3.9 yards per carry were the lowest mark of his career.

The Jets ranked sixth in the league in rushing last season with Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory as the primary options out of the backfield. Johnson would likely work in as part of a rotation alongside Powell and Ivory should he elect to sign with the Jets. But, Johnson is also a home run threat whose speed could be a real addition to the lineup.

For now, Johnson isn’t ready to make a decision as he’s possibly holding out for a better offer from the Jets or another team. However, if he doesn’t make a decision soon, teams may elect to wait until after the draft to re-evaluate their needs and Johnson may have to wait to find a new home.

Translating....I got screwed by the titans being released late and the jets lowballed me with a 4 million per year offer. I have no idea what to do.

Where's the line to get screwed?

Like I said before, the Titans have given him about 30M over the last three years, and will give him another 4M as a going away present. Jamaal Charles has made about 14M in that span. McCoy has made less than 10M. Lynch about 17M. Rice about 12M. Forte about 15M. If that's getting the shaft, sign me up.

Somewhere around $4M/year is the new reality for an aging back with question marks. He is free to sign with any team in the league, some of which still have real needs at RB, and "surprisingly", none of them are lining up to pay CJ what he thinks he is worth. Sure, if he had gotten to market a little earlier, he MIGHT have gotten a LITTLE more, but not a lot. Was Cleveland going to give him $10M/year before they signed Tate? Miami before Moreno? SD before Brown? NOPE, not even close. The best fit for him is still out there.

The bottom line problem is that Johnson has/had unrealistic expectations to begin with. $10M/year is simply not the going rate for great backs let alone aging, good backs. If he had run for 5 YPC and 2k yards, sure, then lets talk premiums (but prob still not what he is looking for), but that's not what happened.

As for what he should do now, it's not that hard. Take what you can get, just like every other FA RB has done so far this year, and enjoy the $4M walking away money none of the rest of them enjoyed.

Bolded the key part, Being released this late in free agency. His options were limited.

 

[Faust]

Chris Johnson is a B-U-S-T, bust, bust, bustBy Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

Here's the blurb from my early busts column for 2014 on running back Chris Johnson, who signed with the Jets on Wednesday. I was planning to call Johnson a bust no matter where he signed, and landing with the Jets didn't change that feeling.

The full column should be posted shortly, but given the news Wednesday here's what I expect to happen for Johnson this year. ...

The Jets decided to gamble on Johnson after the Titans released him in April, and his days as a featured running back are over. He will share playing time with Chris Ivory, and whether he remains the starter is irrelevant because he's not a workhorse anymore.

Keep in mind we're talking about a running back with a career-low 3.9 yards-per-carry in 2013. He still managed to finish as the No. 9 Fantasy running back last season, but that was his first Top 10 finish since 2010. He has gone three years in a row with six rushing touchdowns or less, and the only reason he was in the Top 10 this season was a career-high four receiving touchdowns (his previous high was two in 2009).

He'll be 29 in September and hasn't been the same running back since his 2,000-yard season in 2009. Right now he's outside of my Top 24 running backs in the rankings, and I don't plan on moving him up.

I'll likely end up considering him just a flex option worth a pick in Round 5 at the earliest, but someone else can draft him. If I want the better Jets running back I'll wait another round or two later and settle for Ivory, who has more upside.

 

[ffgiant]

I disagree with the assessment. Jets is actually a better landing place for him. With the signing of Michael Vick, Jets offense should improve a lot from last year. Barring injury. CJ2K should still be a serviciable RB2.

 

[Faust]

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

CJ got the best RB contract of the 2014 offseason in terms of per-year pay & is making twice as much per year as Chris Ivory. He's starting.

 

[Faust]

Two big questions for CJ going forward

By Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports it’s a two-year deal. ProFootballTalk says it has "a base value of $8 million, with another $1 million available in incentives based on yardage." I still want to see the guarantee and the structure to have a real sense of it. Johnson was due an $8 million base salary this year with the Titans before they cut him.

He could be great for the Jets. If Johnson plays well there, keep in mind it doesn't mean he would have played well in Nashville.

I see two big questions ahead for him.

1. How does he react to what’s likely to be a reduced role? He was THE centerpiece of the Titans' offense for the bulk of his time in Tennessee. Will the Jets be selling him as that or giving him a narrower role and not talking constantly about their desire to give him 20 carries a game? The role is likely to be narrower, and he’s a guy who understandably wants the ball and enjoys NFL stardom. He’s been a good teammate, though not necessarily a great team guy. What direction do things go with that?
2. How does he handle the New York press when things don’t go well? Fair or not, a good share of Jets fans will view him as an offensive savior. If he averages 3.9 yards a carry as he did for the Titans last year, if he fails to break an occasional tackle in the backfield, if he suggests the negative issue is with the offensive line or play calling, a giant press corps will be more difficult for him to deal with than our small group in Nashville ever was.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

CJ got the best RB contract of the 2014 offseason in terms of per-year pay & is making twice as much per year as Chris Ivory. He's starting.

This.

LOL @ anyone still beating the drum for Ivory.

 

[Faust]

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo

% of Chris Johnson runs going for 20+ yards

2009 6%

2010 4%

2011 4%

2012 3%

2013 2%

 

[Faust]

Chris Johnson: I want to prove the doubters wrong Chris Johnson is latest piece in improved Jets offense

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Jets management seems to be doing a damn sight better this year, I like these moves.

 

[jurb26]

The Jets management seems to be doing a damn sight better this year, I like these moves.

Yeah they are looking pretty good, on appear at least. It's easy to forget this was also an 8-8 team last year that was in the playoff conversation deep into the season. It will be an uphill battle to knock off NE for the division crown but i like what their doing as well. Could be a solid bet for the playoffs.

 

[humpback]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

 

[cstu]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Those projections for CJ are in line with what he did last year.

 

[humpback]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Those projections for CJ are in line with what he did last year.

Not really when you include TDs, but even if they were, how would that be a big boost in FF?

 

[duaneok66]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

excellent post.

 

[duaneok66]

It is a good spot for him, but some people in here are still partying like it's 2009 . . .

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Relative to most of his other potential landing spots, and the 4 receiving TDs were an outlier last year. I would probably be expecting less than that if he had taken a pay cut to stay in Tennessee. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell, and I like the Jets' line more also.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I think he's gonna catch a lot of balls in this offense, ivory will pound, cj will catch

From cimini

3. The new Shady: When he was the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg had a dual threat in LeSean McCoy who was (and still is) dangerous out of the backfield in the passing game. Johnson brings that type of element to the offense. He's not as elusive in space as McCoy, but he's a threat because of his straight-line speed. Johnson made 42 catches on 51 targets last season, averaging 9.3 yards after the catch -- fifth-best in the league. For what it's worth, he has 272 career receptions, more than any other player on the team. With Johnson leaking out of the backfield, opponents will have to think twice before sending extra pressure.

 

[humpback]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Relative to most of his other potential landing spots, and the 4 receiving TDs were an outlier last year. I would probably be expecting less than that if he had taken a pay cut to stay in Tennessee. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell, and I like the Jets' line more also.

I think this was always the most likely landing spot, and he would have had similar value in a couple of the other realistic ones- Denver, Atl, etc. I know you seem to hate Ivory, but I think he's quite a bit better than Greene and McCluster wouldn't have been on the team if they would have kept Johnson. Most places I've seen had the Tenn line rated higher than the NYJ as well (PFF had it at #13 vs. #30 in run blocking, for instance).

 

[cstu]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Those projections for CJ are in line with what he did last year.

Not really when you include TDs, but even if they were, how would that be a big boost in FF?

I thought the 'big boost' comment was in relation to his value prior to his signing. CJ owners have to be happy that he even has the opportunity to put up numbers like last year considering he could have ended up in a much worse situation.

 

[cstu]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Relative to most of his other potential landing spots, and the 4 receiving TDs were an outlier last year. I would probably be expecting less than that if he had taken a pay cut to stay in Tennessee. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell, and I like the Jets' line more also.

I think this was always the most likely landing spot, and he would have had similar value in a couple of the other realistic ones- Denver, Atl, etc. I know you seem to hate Ivory, but I think he's quite a bit better than Greene and McCluster wouldn't have been on the team if they would have kept Johnson. Most places I've seen had the Tenn line rated higher than the NYJ as well (PFF had it at #13 vs. #30 in run blocking, for instance).

Jets OL run blocking:

Tackles: LT Ferguson (#67/76), RT Howard (#68/76) (replaced by RT Giacomini #37/76)

Guards: LG Ducasse (#27/81), RG Colon (#59/81)

Center: Mangold (#31/35)

Rookie 3rd round pick LG Brian Winters was a very poor run blocker (#74/81) but the Jets have hope he plays better in his second year.

I won't be surprised if they take a center (Mangold has a cap number of $10.4M next year) or guard (Colon is only signed through this year) later in the draft.

If Mangold and Ferguson can get back to being merely average run blockers then the OL has a chance of being solid.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I really think this news deserves a new thread or modified thread title.

 

[humpback]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Those projections for CJ are in line with what he did last year.

Not really when you include TDs, but even if they were, how would that be a big boost in FF?

I thought the 'big boost' comment was in relation to his value prior to his signing. CJ owners have to be happy that he even has the opportunity to put up numbers like last year considering he could have ended up in a much worse situation.

I guess, although I'd assume that the vast majority of CJ owners didn't acquire him in the week or so where he went from Tenn to cut to NYJ. For most owners, his value is lower now, even if it's "less bad" then it could have been.

 

[Banger]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year. You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

I don't think there's a chance he's over drafted. Fantasy players hate him by and large. The guy was the 9th ranked fantasy back last year and everyone acts like he sucks. Ivory hasn't put up in his 4 year career what CJ put up in 1 season. Cj's worst year >>> Ivory's best year. He'll be ranked in the 20's and that will be his floor. CJ will be value, again.

 

[humpback]

Ivory and Powell split just over 350 carries pretty evenly down the middle last year -- and Johnson is waaaay better than Bilal freaking Powell, guys. He's going to get 250+ carries, about 40 catches, and put up 1400 - 1500 YFS. TDs might be an issue -- the Jets' two primary RBs only combined for 4 last year. But they've also made some decent additions on offense, so he could get 5 / 6 maybe.

So you're projecting less production but a pretty big boost in FF?

Relative to most of his other potential landing spots, and the 4 receiving TDs were an outlier last year. I would probably be expecting less than that if he had taken a pay cut to stay in Tennessee. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell, and I like the Jets' line more also.

I think this was always the most likely landing spot, and he would have had similar value in a couple of the other realistic ones- Denver, Atl, etc. I know you seem to hate Ivory, but I think he's quite a bit better than Greene and McCluster wouldn't have been on the team if they would have kept Johnson. Most places I've seen had the Tenn line rated higher than the NYJ as well (PFF had it at #13 vs. #30 in run blocking, for instance).

Jets OL run blocking:

Tackles: LT Ferguson (#67/76), RT Howard (#68/76) (replaced by RT Giacomini #37/76)

Guards: LG Ducasse (#27/81), RG Colon (#59/81)

Center: Mangold (#31/35)

Rookie 3rd round pick LG Brian Winters was a very poor run blocker (#74/81) but the Jets have hope he plays better in his second year.

I won't be surprised if they take a center (Mangold has a cap number of $10.4M next year) or guard (Colon is only signed through this year) later in the draft.

If Mangold and Ferguson can get back to being merely average run blockers then the OL has a chance of being solid.

That's all well and good, but I didn't say their line doesn't have a chance at being solid, just that it doesn't seem to be an improvement over the line he had.

 

[Banger]

Vick is the perfect qb for him (much better than last years trash), the defense is better and they'll want to run the ball and CJ will be the receiving threat. CJ is more effective when he's not the every down pounder. that's not his game and he's not good at it. Pairing him up with Ivory is great.