Who are the players we refuse to give up on until it is too late? (1 Viewer)

[efactor]

Isn't that what this thread is about though? Guys that keep on not producing, and the community keeps on making excuses for them year after year and holding his value up in spite of it?

Swift has averaged about 15 points a game in his career while playing 80% of available games. So that bolded part is not him.

Well, he did play 14 games last year, but many of those he was very limited. So while he was technically “available”, he wasn’t much good to his FF owners. 5 games at 8 points or less. His highest point total game was week 17 when it didn’t matter for most people.

 

[efactor]

Swift.

I was close to suggesting him, but I think his value holds for 1 more year. Might even be a dead cat bounce if he manages to miraculously stay healthy. He’s still very young, also.

But now Montgomery is there. While he’s hardly exciting, Montgomery is better as a runner than Jamaal and a much better receiver so that will cut into Swifts potential production as well. Even if healthy, it’s a full fledge time share at best for him.

Don’t disagree personally, but community-wise Swift still has a lot of believers. I know @menobrown is one.

I feel like as long as he’s healthy this year his value will hold for at least another.

Given Montgomery will be the starter, what is the Swift ceiling if he remains healthy?

Montgomery likely handles more carries but that does not mean a whole lot. As @Hot Sauce Guy indicated I remain fairly high on Swift but it's not just me. Sure his value has dropped but his ADP right now in FFPC redrafts for this month is a little higher then Montgomery's so saying Monty is the starter does not mean much to me.

What it does mean is he’s no better off than he was with Williams and that isn’t saying much.

Sigh.

Again he averages almost 15 fantasy points a game. That's right in RB12 range last year. His career low in his career is 13.5, which was last year and he was almost dead tied with Kenneth Walker.


This notion he does not produce for fantasy is one of the more bogus opinion's I've seen in years. I mean guys, it's math, it's right in front of

Swift.

I was close to suggesting him, but I think his value holds for 1 more year. Might even be a dead cat bounce if he manages to miraculously stay healthy. He’s still very young, also.

But now Montgomery is there. While he’s hardly exciting, Montgomery is better as a runner than Jamaal and a much better receiver so that will cut into Swifts potential production as well. Even if healthy, it’s a full fledge time share at best for him.

Don’t disagree personally, but community-wise Swift still has a lot of believers. I know @menobrown is one.

I feel like as long as he’s healthy this year his value will hold for at least another.

Given Montgomery will be the starter, what is the Swift ceiling if he remains healthy?

Montgomery likely handles more carries but that does not mean a whole lot. As @Hot Sauce Guy indicated I remain fairly high on Swift but it's not just me. Sure his value has dropped but his ADP right now in FFPC redrafts for this month is a little higher then Montgomery's so saying Monty is the starter does not mean much to me.

What it does mean is he’s no better off than he was with Williams and that isn’t saying much.

Sigh.

Again he averages almost 15 fantasy points a game. That's right in RB12 range last year. His career low in his career is 13.5, which was last year and he was almost dead tied with Kenneth Walker.

The Walker comparison is really deceiving. Once Walker actually started playing in week 5, he only had 1 week below double digit points and that was when he got hurt early in the Rams games. Was much more consistent than Swift despite not getting much in the passing game.

 

[menobrown]

Isn't that what this thread is about though? Guys that keep on not producing, and the community keeps on making excuses for them year after year and holding his value up in spite of it?

Swift has averaged about 15 points a game in his career while playing 80% of available games. So that bolded part is not him.

Well, he did play 14 games last year, but many of those he was very limited. So while he was technically “available”, he wasn’t much good to his FF owners. 5 games at 8 points or less. His highest point total game was week 17 when it didn’t matter for most people.

I disagree. The PPG is the PPG, the "he was available but limited" talk is something already factored into the PPG. It is what it is, he produces when he plays.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I vote to rename this thread 'The 9 Lives of Josh Gordon'

 

[menobrown]

I vote to rename this thread 'The 9 Lives of Josh Gordon'

He's for sure my personal record holder for guy I could not give up on. I once held him for 6 or 7 years in a FFPC league which has only 14 position players for off-season cuts so that's not an easy hold.

 

[titusbramble]

Anyone who didn't immediately cash out on Larry Johnson after his 77357485746 carry season? First thought was Michael Turner but he actually produced a fair bit more after his big year than I remember him doing

 

[JohnnyU]

I vote to rename this thread 'The 9 Lives of Josh Gordon'

He's for sure my personal record holder for guy I could not give up on. I once held him for 6 or 7 years in a FFPC league which has only 14 position players for off-season cuts so that's not an easy hold.

Ouch!!!!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Sigh.

Again he averages almost 15 fantasy points a game. That's right in RB12 range last year. His career low in his career is 13.5, which was last year and he was almost dead tied with Kenneth Walker.


This notion he does not produce for fantasy is one of the more bogus opinion's I've seen in years. I mean guys, it's math, it's right in front of you to see.

I was huge on Swift coming into the league and have held on hope longer than most, but there is a lot more at play here than just PPG.

Notably, that his PPG and playing time have continued trending down. He's consistently lost playing time to lesser players that weren't supposed to be a threat.

Availability is also a big deal for him, which is one thing when you're talking about a guy like CMC that is winning the league for you when he's healthy, but another for middling PPG that is always getting hurt.

He's also one of those guys for whom PPG doesn't tell the whole story because most owners miss out on many of the big games. He loves to put up horrible single digit performances and follow it up with big games when people put him on their bench, only to return to the single digits when that big game convinces people to put him back in their lineup.

Swift's biggest game came in week 17 last year. Championship week, perfect! Except it came after 3 weeks of averaging around 7 points during the FF playoffs and very few dared to start him at that point. I remember I made an AC post about Swift vs. a very middling Drake London, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of people preferring to start London (which sadly, I did). So 27 points to bring his PPG average up that week, but very few got any benefit from it.

Kenneth Walker is of course a misleading comparison, as Walker's PPG is brought down by the games early in the year where he hadn't cracked the starting lineup as a rookie with a coach that is scared of rookies. Once Walker took over the starting job their PPGs weren't close.

Regardless, while Swift has somewhat "produced", he has produced far less than his start of the season value would dictate each year. Maybe that will change this year with his ADP much lower, but generally with guys like this their production keeps trending down to match.

 

[rockaction]

I vote to rename this thread 'The 9 Lives of Josh Gordon'

I laughed until I realized I should cry. I will not trash Gordon ever. The league should not have antiquated drug policies in place with respect to non-performance enhancing drugs to protect teams from the investigative and disciplinary work that goes into running their own ship.

 

[JohnnyU]

Sigh.

Again he averages almost 15 fantasy points a game. That's right in RB12 range last year. His career low in his career is 13.5, which was last year and he was almost dead tied with Kenneth Walker.


This notion he does not produce for fantasy is one of the more bogus opinion's I've seen in years. I mean guys, it's math, it's right in front of you to see.

I was huge on Swift coming into the league and have held on hope longer than most, but there is a lot more at play here than just PPG.

Notably, that his PPG and playing time have continued trending down. He's consistently lost playing time to lesser players that weren't supposed to be a threat.

Availability is also a big deal for him, which is one thing when you're talking about a guy like CMC that is winning the league for you when he's healthy, but another for middling PPG that is always getting hurt.

He's also one of those guys for whom PPG doesn't tell the whole story because most owners miss out on many of the big games. He loves to put up horrible single digit performances and follow it up with big games when people put him on their bench, only to return to the single digits when that big game convinces people to put him back in their lineup.

Swift's biggest game came in week 17 last year. Championship week, perfect! Except it came after 3 weeks of averaging around 7 points during the FF playoffs and very few dared to start him at that point. I remember I made an AC post about Swift vs. a very middling Drake London, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of people preferring to start London (which sadly, I did). So 27 points to bring his PPG average up that week, but very few got any benefit from it.

Kenneth Walker is of course an intentionally misleading comparison, as Walker's PPG is brought down by the games early in the year where he hadn't cracked the starting lineup as a rookie with a coach that is scared of rookies. Once Walker took over the starting job their PPGs weren't close.

Regardless, while Swift has somewhat "produced", he has produced far less than his start of the season value would dictate each year. Maybe that will change this year with his ADP much lower, but generally with guys like this their production keeps trending down to match.

Very well said

 

[rockaction]

PPG is great but variance is also a useful measurement. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Weekly boom-or-bust rates are something to take into consideration with a player. Obviously we look for high-end consistency.

Swift does not seem to have that.

I don't want to cross meno for taking the stand he takes here about Swift's PPG, but I'm not sure when it comes to Swift's overall value we can ignore his variance.

 

[menobrown]

Sigh.

Again he averages almost 15 fantasy points a game. That's right in RB12 range last year. His career low in his career is 13.5, which was last year and he was almost dead tied with Kenneth Walker.


This notion he does not produce for fantasy is one of the more bogus opinion's I've seen in years. I mean guys, it's math, it's right in front of you to see.

I was huge on Swift coming into the league and have held on hope longer than most, but there is a lot more at play here than just PPG.

Notably, that his PPG and playing time have continued trending down. He's consistently lost playing time to lesser players that weren't supposed to be a threat.

Availability is also a big deal for him, which is one thing when you're talking about a guy like CMC that is winning the league for you when he's healthy, but another for middling PPG that is always getting hurt.

He's also one of those guys for whom PPG doesn't tell the whole story because most owners miss out on many of the big games. He loves to put up horrible single digit performances and follow it up with big games when people put him on their bench, only to return to the single digits when that big game convinces people to put him back in their lineup.

Swift's biggest game came in week 17 last year. Championship week, perfect! Except it came after 3 weeks of averaging around 7 points during the FF playoffs and very few dared to start him at that point. I remember I made an AC post about Swift vs. a very middling Drake London, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of people preferring to start London (which sadly, I did). So 27 points to bring his PPG average up that week, but very few got any benefit from it.

Kenneth Walker is of course an intentionally misleading comparison, as Walker's PPG is brought down by the games early in the year where he hadn't cracked the starting lineup as a rookie with a coach that is scared of rookies. Once Walker took over the starting job their PPGs weren't close.

Regardless, while Swift has somewhat "produced", he has produced far less than his start of the season value would dictate each year. Maybe that will change this year with his ADP much lower, but generally with guys like this their production keeps trending down to match.

He's played 80% of his games, you'd like more but the notion he's always hurt is false.

His PPG production has not dwindled down each season. It's gone 14.9, 16.2 and 13.5 in order.

Whether people started Swift or not seems like that's on them, blaming Swift because he was on your bench sounds odd to me.

Walker was not intentionally misleading, just pointing out the production of the back he was literally right next to in PPG production. But if Swift had the same circumstances as Walker, with the starter and some of the other backups going down I'm sure his production would have spiked as well.

 

[menobrown]

PPG is great but variance is also a useful measurement. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Weekly boom-or-bust rates are something to take into consideration with a player. Obviously we look for high-end consistency.

Swift does not seem to have that.

I don't want to cross meno for taking the stand he takes here about Swift's PPG, but I'm not sure when it comes to Swift's overall value we can ignore his variance.

Not crossing me at all but I think he was pretty consistent his first two years. Last year he was not and that was a fair knock on him last year.

 

[-OZ-]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

 

[ffmail4me]

Claypool
Gallup
Bateman
Hunt
Carter
Fant

 

[JohnnyU]

Claypool
Gallup
Bateman
Hunt
Carter
Fant

I don’t understand Bateman

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bateman in another.

Dude’s 23 - he doesn’t belong on this topic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Claypool
Gallup
Bateman
Hunt
Carter
Fant

One of these things is not like the others.

 

[JohnnyU]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

Bateman = microwave mindset. Not exactly what I had in mind for this thread.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

As far as Swift goes, a trade or eventual free agency could be the best thing for him. His current GM and coaches don't seem to really trust him and the 3 year signing of Monty is another sign that they are ready to move on. A fresh start is what he needs.

 

[rockaction]

Not crossing me at all but I think he was pretty consistent his first two years. Last year he was not and that was a fair knock on him last year.

Indeed he was his first two from what I can remember. Actually, now that I look at it, last year wasn't abominably bad if you play in a 2RB league. That 3 clunker he posted in Week Sixteen will kill ya, but overall, he was RB23 PPG. That's a low-end RB2. I'd have taken it compared to what I had.

As far as Swift goes, a trade or eventual free agency could be the best thing for him. His current GM and coaches don't seem to really trust him and the 3 year signing of Monty is another sign that they are ready to move on. A fresh start is what he needs.

I think last year was a bad storm of the whole ability/availability thing in the NFL where the coaches expect you to be able to play through pain but not injury and he wasn't as much because they couldn't trust him on the field to attack like they wanted to anymore because of his inability to play through pain.

So I think that even when not injured, they almost treated him like he was. It wasn't a good look for the staff or Swift, if you ask me.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

As far as Swift goes, a trade or eventual free agency could be the best thing for him. His current GM and coaches don't seem to really trust him and the 3 year signing of Monty is another sign that they are ready to move on. A fresh start is what he needs.

Sometimes this does work out, but every player that ends up in the "we all held out hope for too long" bucket had a stop or two along the way where everyone said "he just needs a change of scenery" that bought him yet another year when it looked like it was about time to give up on him being what they'd hoped. JJSS is a good recent example of this.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Only Swift owners would pay what Swift owners think Swift is worth.

 

[menobrown]

Indeed he was his first two from what I can remember. Actually, now that I look at it, last year wasn't abominably bad if you play in a 2RB league. That 3 clunker he posted in Week Sixteen will kill ya, but overall, he was RB23 PPG. That's a low-end RB2. I'd have taken it compared to what I had.

Really this is sort of what I keep trying to get at with Swift. I just think the perception of him is worse then the fantasy production.

I get it he has looked dynamic and people expected more, I know I did, but just because he has not met expectations I think has people more down on then they should be and not recognizing that the worst of him, which was last season, was still a middling RB2 in PPG and a RB2 in totality of the whole season. He's treated as someone far less productive then he has been IMO and for sure less available then he's been as well.

 

[msudaisy26]

Kerryon Johnson. Right after the Lions drafted Swift I tried to send Kerryon to this manager for pick 2.08 in the rookie draft, he counter with 4.08. I rejected and said I would let Johnson rot on my bench before so took that pick. Boy was I right.

 

[zamboni]

Jermichael Finley was another one from awhile back.

Never did get very active.

 

[Gawain]

Jonathon Stewart #1 for me. SSOG would post about his dominant traits and I bought in, hook line and sinker.
In a keep-6 I moved a 1st round pick for him after 2009 and thought I was destined for greatness after 2010.
Kept him at the cost of a 5th round pick through 2014, just in time to miss his 3rd and 4th best seasons.

 

[Moonlight]

Indeed he was his first two from what I can remember. Actually, now that I look at it, last year wasn't abominably bad if you play in a 2RB league. That 3 clunker he posted in Week Sixteen will kill ya, but overall, he was RB23 PPG. That's a low-end RB2. I'd have taken it compared to what I had.

Really this is sort of what I keep trying to get at with Swift. I just think the perception of him is worse then the fantasy production.

I get it he has looked dynamic and people expected more, I know I did, but just because he has not met expectations I think has people more down on then they should be and not recognizing that the worst of him, which was last season, was still a middling RB2 in PPG and a RB2 in totality of the whole season. He's treated as someone far less productive then he has been IMO and for sure less available then he's been as well.

Lions now have a better RB in Montgomery and I think they draft a RB because they do not trust him.

So in my mind if he remains a Lion he has less value than last year. But I think they move him at some point, so he may do better in new surroundings but I would discount his value as what happened in Detroit could well be repeated.

 

[-OZ-]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

Bateman = microwave mindset. Not exactly what I had in mind for this thread.

the first guy you mention, CEH, was born the same year

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I’m worried JK Dobbins is going to be that guy for me but I just can’t quit him.

 

[Jayded]

I’m pretty sure this thread is a passive aggressive way to still motivate Tatum Bell.

 

[Apple Juice]

I’m worried JK Dobbins is going to be that guy for me but I just can’t quit him.

No need to worry. JK will put up fat stats this year. He's healthy and motivated to re-establish his value for a second contract.

 

[JohnnyU]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

Bateman = microwave mindset. Not exactly what I had in mind for this thread.

the first guy you mention, CEH, was born the same year

CEH has played 3 years and Bateman 2, with one of those not really counting because of injury. I think you know the difference, unless you’re one of those microwave (instant gratification guys).

 

[-OZ-]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

Bateman = microwave mindset. Not exactly what I had in mind for this thread.

the first guy you mention, CEH, was born the same year

CEH has played 3 years and Bateman 2, with one of those not really counting because of injury. I think you know the difference, unless you’re one of those microwave (instant gratification guys).

CEH probably shouldn’t be your first example.

 

[JohnnyU]

I held onto OBJ, Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson in one SF dynasty the last couple years. So far those have been wasted spots.

Bateman in another.

Bateman = microwave mindset. Not exactly what I had in mind for this thread.

the first guy you mention, CEH, was born the same year

CEH has played 3 years and Bateman 2, with one of those not really counting because of injury. I think you know the difference, unless you’re one of those microwave (instant gratification guys).

CEH probably shouldn’t be your first example.

Sure seems as if he’s been in the league for 10 years, but you know the difference between he and Bateman. Don’t be coy Roy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jermichael Finley was another one from awhile back.

Never did get very active.

Good call.

 

[Moonlight]

I’m worried JK Dobbins is going to be that guy for me but I just can’t quit him.

I’d quit on Gus Edwards then wait on Dobbins

 

[Birdie048]

4. Braylon Edwards. I started playing in 2003. He was my first "guy" coming out of college. That 3rd year was so absurd, I basically proved that I should be an NFL GM. But I kept drafting him for years after despite the poor production.

#4 was my Achilles!!
I gave up good draft capital to acquire him where possible. Only to shoot myself in the foot

 

[Ilov80s]

• Mattison is on the precipice. If Cook isn’t traded/released, or if he is, but Mattison doesn’t establish as “the big half” of a committee, his window of opportunity will rapidly be closing. For now he’s a hold, but an inflection point is approaching.

• Pacheco is a good sell. Perception >>> reality, and IMO the bottom falls out on his value this year when the larger community starts to figure out that he’s unlikely to be more than an 8-14 point per week guy with a low ceiling.

This doesn't quite seem to fit the topic. These guys both may be at their highest value yet. While I agree that might mean it's time to sell, I don't think these are players anyone has to refuse to give up on. The case for both doing well next year is pretty easy to see.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am probably there with Terrace Marshall and Rondale Moore but at this point, there value is so low its' worth it just seeing if some new coaching staffs can give them any kind of life.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Odell Beckham, David Johnson and Gronk for recent ones.

 

[jm192]

I am probably there with Terrace Marshall and Rondale Moore but at this point, there value is so low its' worth it just seeing if some new coaching staffs can give them any kind of life.

Oh 1000% riding with Marshall.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The case for both doing well next year is pretty easy to see.

I’d love to see it with Mattison, who I did say was on the precipice. If he doesn’t do well this year, he’s gonna qualify for this topic in a hurry.

For Pacheco, I feel like he’s already that guy. Too much perceived upside to drop, but not enough performance to be worth it. Owners will be stuck with him.

So you’re right - they’re not quite here yet, but both are teetering dangerously close.

 

[Ilov80s]

The case for both doing well next year is pretty easy to see.

I’d love to see it with Mattison, who I did say was on the precipice. If he doesn’t do well this year, he’s gonna qualify for this topic in a hurry.

For Pacheco, I feel like he’s already that guy. Too much perceived upside to drop, but not enough performance to be worth it. Owners will be stuck with him.

So you’re right - they’re not quite here yet, but both are teetering dangerously close.

Interesting. Also if Cook gets cut and Vikings only spend a late pick at RB, Mattison is in position for the most volume of his career. If KC only goes late round RB, Pacheco is in position to be the lead back on the best NFL offense. Pacheco could see his value sky rocket in the next few months.

 

[The Future Champs]

I kept ARob last year, so that probably qualifies, but I’m done now. Never again. I don’t care if he’s on the WW and goes off in week 1.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Also if Cook gets cut and Vikings only spend a late pick at RB, Mattison is in position for the most volume of his career

Which I am also saying.

Hey, I dealt for Mattison for that exact hope.

What I’m saying is if he *doesn’t* get that workload, he’ll be a good candidate for this topic.

If KC only goes late round RB, Pacheco is in position to be the lead back on the best NFL offense. Pacheco could see his value sky rocket in the next few months.

I doubt very much that’s going to happen. That’s my point of including him here.

We’ll know more after the draft and before the season. KC could deal for a RB or draft one. Pacheco isn’t a special RB - opportunity is his greatest skill at the moment.

 

[joey]

Is it too soon to put Josh Palmer in this thread? Probably, but he’s been on all 3 of my dynasty rosters (all pretty much the same format: Keep 14 skill players, only 20 total players rostered). First, hoping the Chargers didn’t resign Mike Williams last year, and now this year hoping the Chargers don’t spend a “high” (top 3 rounds) draft pick on a rookie WR

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is it too soon to put Josh Palmer in this thread? Probably, but he’s been on all 3 of my dynasty rosters (all pretty much the same format: Keep 14 skill players, only 20 total players rostered). First, hoping the Chargers didn’t resign Mike Williams last year, and now this year hoping the Chargers don’t spend a “high” (top 3 rounds) draft pick on a rookie WR

Good call. The instant the Chargers draft a WR, Palmer is officially roster clogger. Some will hold on. Eventually he’ll be the Ronald Jones of WR.

 

[grateful zed]

I hung on to Barry Sanders for years cuz I had room for him.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I hung on to Barry Sanders for years cuz I had room for him.

Not dynasty, but I remember drafting him with my last round pick in re-draft for a few years after he hung 'em up. Then, I did the exact same thing with Megatron. Never paid off