Who is the clutchest QB in the NFL since 1996? (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

If Brady and Elway and Montana are not tops on the list it's a flawed system. Maybe Marino too, not sure. I think Elway broke Marino's record for most wins in the final 2 minutes.

It only goes back to 1996.

 

[SSOG]

That's the dumbest way of defining "clutchness" ever

How about we do it by winning PERCENTAGE in the 4th quarter, instead of the number of wins? Brady's winning percentage in the 4th quarter >>>>>>> Jake Plummer/Peyton Manning. I'm not even suprised that Bulger is 10-5, he's a great clutch QB imo as well. That list is downright awful.

I'll take Bradys almost 2:1 win percentage and Bulgers actual 2:1 over any of those QBs any day.

Here's the problem with winning percentage. Let's say QBA is 1-0 when trailing by 8 in the fourth quarter, and QBB is 19-1 when trailing by 8 in the fourth quarter. Who would you rather have, QBA who has a higher winning percentage, or QBB who has done it often enough to prove it wasn't just a fluke?That's the point of the T-Test. It takes sample size into consideration in order to determine what the odds are that it was just a fluke.

I agree that there are better ways to do it, but I certainly don't think that straight winning percentage is it.

Hmm, you bring up a valid point. I'd say that the best way to rectify that issue would to be subtract 4th quarter losses from wins, and whoever has more after that is the more clutch QB.

That would be a horrible way to do it, too. Let's say one QB is 100-105 when trailing, and another is 0-4. Subtracting losses from wins would say that the second QB was more "clutch".Read the comments. There are a bunch of other proposed methodologies. The one which I think is closest to what you're going for is "wins above expected". You take the number of 4th-quarter OPPORTUNITIES a QB has had, multiply by .313 (the average comeback rate), and then subtract that from their actual win total. This gives you how many more games a QB has won than would be expected from an average QB with the same number of opportunities. I think it's a pretty good compromise, as it factors in both winning percentage *and* opportunities (so a QB who is 2-0 only has 1.374 wins above average, while a QB who is 10-12 has 3.114).

Another proposed method was using a binomial calculator to calculate the probability that an average QB could put up a comparable winning percentage in late situations. That's another method that I prefer, although the writer responded with his reasoning for using a T-Test instead.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I have major studies on this from baseball and people have VERY selective memory. It would shock people that ARod is actually more clutch than Derek Jeter. This is a fact and I could prove it to anyone over a 3 year period and over 200 AB's in close and late situations. The dreaded selective memory is the albatross of logical thinking.

I'd definitely be interested in learning more about this! Since the 2002 season I've felt (without proof) that Jeter hasn't been all that clutch. And perhaps (from 1996-2001) his perceived "clutch factor" is just above-average performance by an above-average player with well above average clutch situations, thus creating more clutch moments.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I have major studies on this from baseball and people have VERY selective memory. It would shock people that ARod is actually more clutch than Derek Jeter. This is a fact and I could prove it to anyone over a 3 year period and over 200 AB's in close and late situations. The dreaded selective memory is the albatross of logical thinking.

I'd definitely be interested in learning more about this! Since the 2002 season I've felt (without proof) that Jeter hasn't been all that clutch. And perhaps (from 1996-2001) his perceived "clutch factor" is just above-average performance by an above-average player with well above average clutch situations, thus creating more clutch moments.

I can answer this one.Just take a look at how Jeter does in situations X, Y and Z. Then look at how AROD does in situations X, Y and Z. Then see what categories AROD beats Jeter in. Finish by defining those categories as "clutch".

This is what the Peyton Manning, Marty Schottenheimer, and Bill Cowher (oops...forget him) bashers use.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I can answer this one.

Just take a look at how Jeter does in situations X, Y and Z. Then look at how AROD does in situations X, Y and Z. Then see what categories AROD beats Jeter in. Finish by defining those categories as "clutch".

This is what the Peyton Manning, Marty Schottenheimer, and Bill Cowher (oops...forget him) bashers use.

I honestly think that Manning has had quite a few moments. In 2 of his last 3 playoff losses, he was basically mounting a late game-tying drive.

I was rooting 100% for the Pats in 2003 in the AFCC but the Colts truly got screwed on a couple of obvious, textbook no-calls for pass interference / holding, there's no denying it. (Before Pats fans get angry, I totally agree that they got hosed against the Broncos this year!)

And of course last year, Manning almost brought them all the way back in what would have been one of the greatest playoff comebacks in history.

I know, I know, almost.

You have to wonder if the Pats and Colts switched kickers how different things would be. If Vanderjagt hits the FG in the 2004 opener, do the Colts have HFA instead?

All this rambling said, I'd still want Brady over Manning (and obviously Plummer ) in any game situation.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I can answer this one.

Just take a look at how Jeter does in situations X, Y and Z. Then look at how AROD does in situations X, Y and Z. Then see what categories AROD beats Jeter in. Finish by defining those categories as "clutch".

This is what the Peyton Manning, Marty Schottenheimer, and Bill Cowher (oops...forget him) bashers use.

I honestly think that Manning has had quite a few moments. In 2 of his last 3 playoff losses, he was basically mounting a late game-tying drive.

I was rooting 100% for the Pats in 2003 in the AFCC but the Colts truly got screwed on a couple of obvious, textbook no-calls for pass interference / holding, there's no denying it. (Before Pats fans get angry, I totally agree that they got hosed against the Broncos this year!)

And of course last year, Manning almost brought them all the way back in what would have been one of the greatest playoff comebacks in history.

I know, I know, almost.

You have to wonder if the Pats and Colts switched kickers how different things would be. If Vanderjagt hits the FG in the 2004 opener, do the Colts have HFA instead?

All this rambling said, I'd still want Brady over Manning (and obviously Plummer ) in any game situation.

I was away but will post the clutch discussion in a new topic so you guys can read this.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I was away but will post the clutch discussion in a new topic so you guys can read this.

(in a good way)