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Winslow - If I want him (1 Viewer)

On The Rocks

Footballguy
Based on the comments in the Daily Update yesterday:

CLE - TE Winslow Impressive

Source: Mary Kay Cabot, Cleveland Plain Dealer

TE Kellen Winslow Jr., coming off ACL surgery, hasn't missed a rep in OTAs, GM Phil Savage said. "You'd never know he was coming off an injury," Savage said. "Every day, he makes a couple of catches where you just shake your head and say, 'This is how we remember him at Miami.'"

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

I'll be saying it all summer - don't sleep on Kellen Winslow. Few players have been bigger disappointments but Winslow appears to be on the right track. He's fallen out of favor with many, if not most owners, and you may be able to grab him for a nice value this year.
If I want him, where do I have to take him in order to assure I get him, without taking him too early?
 
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Took him at 12.05 in a 12 team league.
This sounds about right. If you really want him I would go after him around the 10th or so. I guess it just depends on where the draft is in terms of the other TEs still on the board. I would wait until all the top tier TEs (probably the top 10 TEs) are gone. He won't go before then in most drafts.
 
Overall ADP

26 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

50 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

52 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

62 TE4 Todd Heap Bal/7

66 TE5 Alge Crumpler Atl/5

73 TE6 Jason Witten Dal/3

79 TE7 Chris Cooley Was/8

82 TE8 Randy McMichael Mia/8

96 TE9 Vernon Davis SF/7

99 TE10 L.J. Smith Phi/9

106 TE11 Heath Miller Pit/4

114 TE12 Dallas Clark Ind/6

115 TE13 Kellen Winslow Cle/6

130 TE14 Jerramy Stevens Sea/5

141 TE15 Ben Troupe Ten/7

link

 
Take him before anyone else does :shrug:

Seriously = check out the ADP's, and earliest he's been taken and that should give you a great feel for where he should go.

 
In a recent 14 team dynasty draft I took Winslow at 94th overall (pick 7.10). He was the 11th TE taken. In this league TE get 2ppr, so they were taken fairly early.

I did not want to take him that early but felt I wanted him on my dynasty team with the scoring system and did not feel like he would be around much longer.

Order of top TE taken:

Gates - 1.02

Gonzo - 2.11

Shockey - 3.08

Heap - 3.09

Cooley - 3.10

Crumpler - 4.02

Witten - 5.04

Stevens - 6.03

McMichael - 6.06

LJ Smith - 7.05

Winslow - 7.10

Hope this helps, main thing to consider is scoring system and starting requirements.

 
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If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII?

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside. KWII and VD fit that bill. So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked. If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.

 
If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII?

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside. KWII and VD fit that bill. So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked. If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.
You would take KWII and VD over Crumpler, McMichael, Smith, Cooley, Troupe, Stevens, Miller, Smith, Pollard, and Clark?Interesting.

 
If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII?

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside. KWII and VD fit that bill. So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked. If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.
i suppose i should have clarified....but i don't love the guy...i just like him and am willing to roll the dice that he is going to comeback and have a "nice" year, similar to Jason Witten type numbers from last year:
2005 66 757 11.5 6
with the potential to hit numbers like Jason Witten from two years ago.
2004 87 980 11.3 6
 
Order of top  TE taken:

Gates - 1.02
:confused: even @ 2 pts per reception how can you draft a te #2 overall? :ph34r:
Well, I haven't dowloaded the VBD for this year, but using last year's spreadsheet, and changing to 2 PPR for TE, Tony G would have been ranked 3rd overall. So, not much of a stretch. Especially since he was projected to score 198 points more than the #12 TE (worst starter). In a 16 game season, that is 12+ ppg.
 
Order of top  TE taken:

Gates - 1.02
:confused: even @ 2 pts per reception how can you draft a te #2 overall? :ph34r:
Well, I haven't dowloaded the VBD for this year, but using last year's spreadsheet, and changing to 2 PPR for TE, Tony G would have been ranked 3rd overall. So, not much of a stretch. Especially since he was projected to score 198 points more than the #12 TE (worst starter). In a 16 game season, that is 12+ ppg.
i understand he has a chance to do good, but still...why not get your young stud rb to build your dynasty team around and go for gonzo in the second? I'd be too worried about rivers starting and what impact that will have the next 2 years or so on his stats. I'd be interested to see what that teams roster ended up looking like. @1.02 he coulda gotten 1 of Larry Johnson or Tomlinson obviously
 
Overall ADP

26 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

50 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

52 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

62 TE4 Todd Heap Bal/7

66 TE5 Alge Crumpler Atl/5

73 TE6 Jason Witten Dal/3

79 TE7 Chris Cooley Was/8

82 TE8 Randy McMichael Mia/8

96 TE9 Vernon Davis SF/7

99 TE10 L.J. Smith Phi/9

106 TE11 Heath Miller Pit/4

114 TE12 Dallas Clark Ind/6

115 TE13 Kellen Winslow Cle/6

130 TE14 Jerramy Stevens Sea/5

141 TE15 Ben Troupe Ten/7

link
:goodposting: Use ADP numbers as a guide. A lot of sites that give ADP info will include the earliest draft position for each player (Antsports does this) which can be really useful information if there's a player you feel you have to have on your team. As close to your draft as possible, look up Winslow's ADP info including the earliest he's been taken and draft accordingly. You may want to consider moving him up or down a round or two depending on the latest press reports concerning his progress.

 
In the initial draft of a PPR 12 team Dynasty league I grabbed him in the 8th round. I grabbed Crumpler earlier and decided to take a shot at the guy.

The news of how much he and Frye have been working together piqued my interest and made a fairly high pick for him. Having 2 picks in the 8th allowed me to reach for the guy. Being that it's the initial draft of a dynasty league and his age and extreme potential I took a gamble. Personally I think he's a complete idiot, but now he has an incentive laden contract that will require him to prove the crap he's been spewing about his abilities in order to get back that huge signing bonus he had to give back.....But I wouldn't have grabbed him if I didn't have a perennial top 5 TE in the fold already. I want KWII to excel but I'm not banking entirely on that happening....

 
If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII? 

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside.  KWII and VD fit that bill.  So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked.  If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.
You would take KWII and VD over Crumpler, McMichael, Smith, Cooley, Troupe, Stevens, Miller, Smith, Pollard, and Clark?Interesting.
Absolutely. Why not? After the big 3, there is a big glut of TE's that are about the same in terms of potential. Your list includes Heath Miller. He was a rookie last year and ranked amongst the other guys you listed -- and well ahead of Gonzo. At the TE position, I'll roll the dice on a guy that has upside. Most of the guys you listed have a ceiling, imho. My guess is that KWII and VD can do as well as many of these guys, and if they are as good as advertised, then maybe you get the new Gates. KWII and VD are supposed to be far superior athletes to the guys listed.
 
If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII? 

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside.  KWII and VD fit that bill.  So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked.  If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.
i suppose i should have clarified....but i don't love the guy...i just like him and am willing to roll the dice that he is going to comeback and have a "nice" year, similar to Jason Witten type numbers from last year:
2005  66 757 11.5  6
with the potential to hit numbers like Jason Witten from two years ago.
2004  87 980 11.3 6
If healthy, I think Winslow can fall in between those two Witten goal posts. Easily. That's why I think he's going get drafted earlier than most pundits say he should. Someone in your league will roll the dice. Particularly because it is the TE position that won't lose you your league but can sure help you win it.
 
If you really, really want him, take him with your first pick in the first round.

If you'd like to have him, but if you don't get him that's OK too because you don't want to overpay for him, get him at his ADP.

 
Take him in the dynasty rookie draft in the second round two years ago and suffer through two years of him on IR.

:wall:

 
Pick 9.09 - 4U2NV selects TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland

This pick may surprise a few people but Winslow was the guy I had wanted as my TE since this draft started. I knew that the other guys like Gates, Gonzo, Heap, Shockey etc. would all be snapped up but my plan was to solidify myself as best as possible at other positions and take my TE later and Winslow has the chance to be a force this year and among the best TEs in the league.

I realize that his injury history makes him a risk, but with the 105th overall pick I think the upside far outweighs the risk at this point in the draft. Winslow has improved by leaps and bounds over the course of the off-season and has been working closely with Charlie Frye for the majority of that time. With Braylon Edwards out for at least a month to begin the season, Winslow should become Frye's security blanket and the Browns' top receiving option. A TE who the QB feels he can depend upon is a very important part of an offence, especially if the QB is under pressure and needs to get the ball away in a hurry.

There is no denying Winslow's ability and I think the injuries he's suffered has made him more mature and more focussed, and the coaching staff seems to be impressed with the dedication he's shown in his rehab which doesn't hurt either.

I think all of these factors bodes well for him this season and is why I wanted him as my TE. I'm banking on him being looked at at the end of the season as a steal in the 9th round.
 
He just went at 8.8 in a 12 team redraft that I am following. No PPR.

 
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Depends on league.

Are you in with Browns/Hurricane fans? If so you will need to move him up a couple of rounds, if you really want him.

If not and you are in a league of unbiased owners and a 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE 12 team leagues, I'd say the following:

If the draft is in June/July, I'd say around the 10th round to expect him

If the draft is in late August/a week before the season, I'd expect to get him around round 7/8.

The guy should produce pretty well and a lot of people of have forgotten about him but as the preseason goes on and more reports come back with him in good health and good shape the hype machine will start to rev up.

I think that the offense will keep him from being an elite TE this year, so I wouldn't over pay for his talents, not this year at least.

 
You'll have to take him out to a REALLY nice place, probably buy him a lot of booze...and he'll still play hard to get. I hear he's a real buzz kill. Too much work. Try Willy Green.

 
I took him at 10.2 in a new 12 team dynasty draft (1pt per reception)

He went 11.2 in another 12 team dynasty draft I just finished.

 
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If you really want him, take him right after the Big 3 tight ends (Gates, Shockey and Gonzo) are off the board.

It seems to me that one of about 15 TE's could be the #4 TE this season, so why not KWII?  

If I don't get one of the top 3 TE's, I'll probably lean towards one with lots of potential and upside.  KWII and VD fit that bill.  So if there are guys in your league thinking like me, KWII could be gone earlier than most VBD's will have him ranked.  If I take one of these guys, I'll may draft a second safer TE later on just in case.
You would take KWII and VD over Crumpler, McMichael, Smith, Cooley, Troupe, Stevens, Miller, Smith, Pollard, and Clark?Interesting.
Absolutely. Why not? After the big 3, there is a big glut of TE's that are about the same in terms of potential. Your list includes Heath Miller. He was a rookie last year and ranked amongst the other guys you listed -- and well ahead of Gonzo. At the TE position, I'll roll the dice on a guy that has upside. Most of the guys you listed have a ceiling, imho. My guess is that KWII and VD can do as well as many of these guys, and if they are as good as advertised, then maybe you get the new Gates. KWII and VD are supposed to be far superior athletes to the guys listed.
I agree....I would rank him with any of them, with an upside to do better. Of course, he could crash his moped again.....
 
i understand he has a chance to do good, but still...why not get your young stud rb to build your dynasty team around and go for gonzo in the second? I'd be too worried about rivers starting and what impact that will have the next 2 years or so on his stats. I'd be interested to see what that teams roster ended up looking like. @1.02 he coulda gotten 1 of Larry Johnson or Tomlinson obviously
Because in a 2-ppr-for-TE-only league, you build your team around stud TEs, not stud RBs.
 
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Order of top TE taken:

Gates - 1.02
:confused: even @ 2 pts per reception how can you draft a te #2 overall? :ph34r:
Well, I haven't dowloaded the VBD for this year, but using last year's spreadsheet, and changing to 2 PPR for TE, Tony G would have been ranked 3rd overall. So, not much of a stretch. Especially since he was projected to score 198 points more than the #12 TE (worst starter). In a 16 game season, that is 12+ ppg.
i understand he has a chance to do good, but still...why not get your young stud rb to build your dynasty team around and go for gonzo in the second? I'd be too worried about rivers starting and what impact that will have the next 2 years or so on his stats. I'd be interested to see what that teams roster ended up looking like. @1.02 he coulda gotten 1 of Larry Johnson or Tomlinson obviously
Because stud TEs have longer careers than stud RBs, and they are far more consistant from year-to-year.Seriously, I'd gamble on Gates being a top-3 TE for the next 5 seasons. What RB are you going to say that about? Tomlinson, who has had a historically huge workload? Alexander, who is coming up on 30? Larry Johnson, maybe, but even he has a lot of questions for the next 5 years regarding the new offense, the inevitable losses on his OLine, and even his workload.

I posted in another thread that, in Dynasty leagues, I would rank Gates as perhaps the #6 or #7 player in the entire NFL- and that was in a 0 ppr league. In a 2 ppr for TEs only league, he's money in the bank, and I wouldn't hesitate to take him #1 overall.

As far as Winslow goes... you have to decide what he's worth to you. Decide the absolute most you're willing to spend on him. Once you reach that point, assess how your league stands. See how many TEs have been drafted, consider if anyone in your league is a Browns or Miami fan, and at each pick from then on, ask yourself... is the possibility of getting someone else this time and Winslow NEXT round worth the risk of missing out entirely in Winslow and having to take someone else next round?

 
Take him in the dynasty rookie draft in the second round two years ago and suffer through two years of him on IR.

:wall:
I scooped him up in my dynasty league at the end of last year because a owner in a similar circumstance gave up on him. (PPR, non TE required). If I was in a TE required league, I would definitely target this guy due to his reward-to-value ratio. If you really want him start thinking about it in the 8th round, pull trigger in 9th. Hype will raise his value as preseason approaches.
 
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Take him in the dynasty rookie draft in the second round two years ago and suffer through two years of him on IR. 

:wall:
I scooped him up in my dynasty league at the end of last year because a owner in a similar circumstance gave up on him. (PPR, non TE required). If I was in a TE required league, I would definitely target this guy due to his reward-to-value ratio. If you really want him start thinking about it in the 8th round, pull trigger in 9th. Hype will raise his value as preseason approaches.
Don't get me wrong. I still have him. I figured I suffered through 2 years with him, I might as well get some benefit out of him. :)
 

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