These are inherently the concerns I have, spread across several posts. Guys like Chase and Jefferson demand targets because they win everywhere. What’s the issue with Dallas? Is it Dak? Is it the scheme/system? Is it that he has to be in the slot (which in and of itself feels problematic to me)? What happens when he’s outside because they don’t have anybody else outside?
There’s two perspectives on this:
1) He’s always been good, and has lacked the volume, and now he’s going to get the volume, so let’s watch him explode.
2) He’s not quite as good as market perception of him, and the market hype provides an opportunity to sell high before he inevitably disappoints.
To me, if Lamb smashes this year, it was expected, and I’m not sure it really increases his value all that much. I doubt he gets valued as a top-3 or top-5 guy. On the other hand, if he fails to deliver on the hype for the third year in a row (whether due to unfair/unrealistic expectations or not), where’s his value go? How far does it fall?
I see a lot more probability on latter than the former.
The FBG Dynasty Trade Value Chart has Lamb as dynasty WR3 right now. I'm not saying it's a perfect source or the authoritative source. But I think most of us would agree FBG is a good/respectable fantasy website.
I think if he has the huge season--he's absolutely a top 3-5 guy in dynasty. Now, sure, he isn't "moving up." But if he solidifies himself as a top 3-5 dynasty WR at 23 years old, you're in a hurry to sell high? Jefferson and Chase aren't moving any higher either. Sure, they've already proven it to you. But the "you should sell because his value isn't getting any higher" mindset doesn't do a lot for me when he's 23 years old.
He had over 1,000 total yards as a rookie. He had 1100 yards last year despite missing a game. His volume was capped by the presence of Cooper. Gallup was another talented pass catcher that demanded volume. They're going to open the season with no Cooper and no Gallup.
CAN he disappoint us? Sure. Quite literally anyone can. All we can do is draw logical conclusions based on the facts.
1. He has 1st round draft capital.
2. He's already had success. He's coming off an 1100 yard season.
3. They felt comfortable enough with him becoming an alpha receiver that they traded Cooper away. Sure, Cooper's cost plays a role. But I don't believe Jerry Jones is sitting there thinking "alright, well, the team is too expensive so it's time to rebuild."
4. Cooper has averaged over 7 targets per game over the last 3 years.
5. Gallup won't be ready week 1.
6. Tolbert may be awesome, but he's a rookie with 3rd round draft capital. I'm not betting on him setting the world on fire.
All this to say: Dallas continues to show they believe he's an elite talent. Between Coopers departure and lack of other big time receivers on the roster--Lamb is about to get absolutely peppered with targets. There's a lot of talent. There's about to be a lot of opportunity. This one seems really obvious.