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WR Zay Flowers, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Interesting things heard on podcasts, specifically Harmon/yahoo then he guested on JJZ/ Late Round. The production profile is not amazing but the RP win rates and versatility is very good. Can play anywhere and win vs man/press and zone.
My take: If a team has a role for a super slot/ Kupp/ARSB with the possibility of a Keenan Allen like ability to dominate the slot but still succeed well enough elsewhere and stay on the field in 2WR sets, JSN is near elite but doesn't offer the scheme versatility of Zay or Addison.
Quentin's another guy with a limited set of specialties that will need a specific role fit to be a smash. He's a converted RB which I only just heard last week and kinda helps explain why he's a YAC monster.
Zay's ability to play and succeed in any role is in-and-of itself valuable and a reason why he's creeping up boards. Folks are realizing that the numbers are indicative of a player who played in a bad offense and is somewhat mistake prone but that what he does well is quite valuable to most teams and can win just about anywhere.
Apologies to Joe and the gang if this is "promoting others" work but thought Zay deserved a shout-out.
FWIW, Waldman also is high on Flowers.
My take: If a team has a role for a super slot/ Kupp/ARSB with the possibility of a Keenan Allen like ability to dominate the slot but still succeed well enough elsewhere and stay on the field in 2WR sets, JSN is near elite but doesn't offer the scheme versatility of Zay or Addison.
Quentin's another guy with a limited set of specialties that will need a specific role fit to be a smash. He's a converted RB which I only just heard last week and kinda helps explain why he's a YAC monster.
Zay's ability to play and succeed in any role is in-and-of itself valuable and a reason why he's creeping up boards. Folks are realizing that the numbers are indicative of a player who played in a bad offense and is somewhat mistake prone but that what he does well is quite valuable to most teams and can win just about anywhere.
Apologies to Joe and the gang if this is "promoting others" work but thought Zay deserved a shout-out.
FWIW, Waldman also is high on Flowers.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think a lot of people thought that.
jm192
Footballguy
Well at least I don't feel so silly for hoping haha.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I have been eyeing him at 1.07-1.08 pick for my league. WR = Gold
Casting Couch
Footballguy
it will
Birdie048
Footballguy
Without the context of the other WR Drafted, this is a bit ambiguous.
Will Addison not be starting opposite JJ almost immediately also? What about QJ replacing Josh Palmer in LAC 3-WR sets? Does that not count as "starter"?
I can see JSN facing more of a challenge with DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett, but Lockett is 31 yo (IIRC) and I think they are comparable skill set.
Blick
Footballguy
It should. Hopefully the offense changes with Roman gone.
jm192
Footballguy
Going back to my earlier comment, I think this represents a chance to find value.
Most of the people here get it--talent over situation. If you liked Flowers coming in, this shouldn't be a deal breaker. But people in leagues all over the world are going to see him go to the Ravens and fade him.
The landing spot may not be as awful as people initially think. The Eagles weren't exactly slinging it all over the yard before they got AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Not saying the Ravens WR corps is the same, but having better pass catchers tends to lead to more passing.
Additionally, Bateman hasn't established himself as the WR1 in the offense. He hasn't shown he can stay healthy. I liked him more as a prospect than I do Flowers. BUT, the situation is such that Flowers can come in and command a big piece of the pie.
Most of the people here get it--talent over situation. If you liked Flowers coming in, this shouldn't be a deal breaker. But people in leagues all over the world are going to see him go to the Ravens and fade him.
The landing spot may not be as awful as people initially think. The Eagles weren't exactly slinging it all over the yard before they got AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Not saying the Ravens WR corps is the same, but having better pass catchers tends to lead to more passing.
Additionally, Bateman hasn't established himself as the WR1 in the offense. He hasn't shown he can stay healthy. I liked him more as a prospect than I do Flowers. BUT, the situation is such that Flowers can come in and command a big piece of the pie.
jm192
Footballguy
If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
the Lamar owner in my league is looking to trade up to get him.
Blick
Footballguy
I'm not sure anything that happened yesterday changed pre-draft rankings much. Consensus had Flowers moving up and Johnston down. I think this reverses that trend. I'd keep Johnston ahead of Flowers at the back of the WR Teir 1 (JSN, Addison, Johnston, Flowers).If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Boone22
Footballguy
I know I’ll get jumped on for this because everyone seems to love talent over situation but I’m not a talent over situation guy. I don’t see a lot of value in spending my 1st round rookie pick on a guy who will most likely be option 3 or 4 in the passing game for a low volume passing team for the next few years.If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bateman’s injuries were both of the flukey variety and not like nagging soft tissue injuries, so saying he hasn’t shown he can stay healthy is a little off-base. Usually that comment is reserved for the dudes who have recurring little things they don’t play through (cough, Swift)
Flowers is 5’9 180
Bateman is 6’2, 205
They aren’t remotely the same type of player. IMO Bateman is still the likely alpha of the expected more vertical passing game.
A lot will depend on how OBJ looks and whether OBJ can stay healthy.
Flowers should be a decent receiver - the team needs to deliver on the projected volume boost for any of them to pay off.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It shouldn’t be as bad with Roman gone, but I don’t totally disagree here. It’s not an ideal landing spot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Interesting choice
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
only in dreams..
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All in good fun my friend.
only in dreams..
jm192
Footballguy
I'm not going to "jump on you." But every year we have this exact conversation.I know I’ll get jumped on for this because everyone seems to love talent over situation but I’m not a talent over situation guy. I don’t see a lot of value in spending my 1st round rookie pick on a guy who will most likely be option 3 or 4 in the passing game for a low volume passing team for the next few years.If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Situations change, a lot. When Bateman was drafted, he was basically in the boat you're describing. He had to contend with Brown and Andrews. Brown got traded.
In general, more talented players are going to perform better than less talented players in better situations. The 2nd round receiver hit rate is less than that of 1st rounders. If you knew nothing else, you'll have more success picking based on draft capital than ignoring it.
All that being said, this isn't me beating the drum for Zay Flowers as a top 5 pick. You've got 2 first round RB's, JSN, Addison. There will be other RB's drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds with a clear path to a role.
BUT, at 1.09--If you liked Flowers before, I think he's still a good pick there.
Birdie048
Footballguy
But what about the improved/increased value other Rookies achieved by Draft Capital / Landing Spot? Does Kincaid in Buff rise above Flowers in Balt?I'm not going to "jump on you." But every year we have this exact conversation.I know I’ll get jumped on for this because everyone seems to love talent over situation but I’m not a talent over situation guy. I don’t see a lot of value in spending my 1st round rookie pick on a guy who will most likely be option 3 or 4 in the passing game for a low volume passing team for the next few years.If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Situations change, a lot. When Bateman was drafted, he was basically in the boat you're describing. He had to contend with Brown and Andrews. Brown got traded.
In general, more talented players are going to perform better than less talented players in better situations. The 2nd round receiver hit rate is less than that of 1st rounders. If you knew nothing else, you'll have more success picking based on draft capital than ignoring it.
All that being said, this isn't me beating the drum for Zay Flowers as a top 5 pick. You've got 2 first round RB's, JSN, Addison. There will be other RB's drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds with a clear path to a role.
BUT, at 1.09--If you liked Flowers before, I think he's still a good pick there.
It's not just a "Talent" issue, but an evaluation of the whole picture of situation and opportunity.
Boone22
Footballguy
I completely understand the talent over situation argument but I also know many owners are fickle when it comes to production. I’d prefer to use my 1.09 on someone in a more productive situation now and in a year or two from now when Flowers is “underperforming” I’ll send an offer then.I'm not going to "jump on you." But every year we have this exact conversation.I know I’ll get jumped on for this because everyone seems to love talent over situation but I’m not a talent over situation guy. I don’t see a lot of value in spending my 1st round rookie pick on a guy who will most likely be option 3 or 4 in the passing game for a low volume passing team for the next few years.If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Situations change, a lot. When Bateman was drafted, he was basically in the boat you're describing. He had to contend with Brown and Andrews. Brown got traded.
In general, more talented players are going to perform better than less talented players in better situations. The 2nd round receiver hit rate is less than that of 1st rounders. If you knew nothing else, you'll have more success picking based on draft capital than ignoring it.
All that being said, this isn't me beating the drum for Zay Flowers as a top 5 pick. You've got 2 first round RB's, JSN, Addison. There will be other RB's drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds with a clear path to a role.
BUT, at 1.09--If you liked Flowers before, I think he's still a good pick there.
jm192
Footballguy
I think with comparable draft capital, situation should certainly be considered.But what about the improved/increased value other Rookies achieved by Draft Capital / Landing Spot? Does Kincaid in Buff rise above Flowers in Balt?I'm not going to "jump on you." But every year we have this exact conversation.I know I’ll get jumped on for this because everyone seems to love talent over situation but I’m not a talent over situation guy. I don’t see a lot of value in spending my 1st round rookie pick on a guy who will most likely be option 3 or 4 in the passing game for a low volume passing team for the next few years.If you liked him before, I think the "shark" play is to take advantage of the landing spot effect.I wanted him but I knew at 1.09 I’d have no shot at him. Now I’m hoping he’s not there at 1.09.
Situations change, a lot. When Bateman was drafted, he was basically in the boat you're describing. He had to contend with Brown and Andrews. Brown got traded.
In general, more talented players are going to perform better than less talented players in better situations. The 2nd round receiver hit rate is less than that of 1st rounders. If you knew nothing else, you'll have more success picking based on draft capital than ignoring it.
All that being said, this isn't me beating the drum for Zay Flowers as a top 5 pick. You've got 2 first round RB's, JSN, Addison. There will be other RB's drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds with a clear path to a role.
BUT, at 1.09--If you liked Flowers before, I think he's still a good pick there.
It's not just a "Talent" issue, but an evaluation of the whole picture of situation and opportunity.
Addison went a pick after Flowers. I'm still ranking Addison over Flowers. I'll probably take Kincaid over Flowers as well. I'm certainly not advocating for picking players in the exact order they go within the NFL draft. But we're still comparing guys with 1st round draft capital.
Now say, Cedric Tillman goes to the Giants in the 2nd round. That's a ton of opportunity from the jump. Am I going to bump him above Flowers--who I liked significantly more before the draft (and apparently so does the NFL)? No.
Situations will change. They change rather abruptly. Again, people forget it now--but we had this EXACT conversation about Bateman before Brown was traded. Then Brown is traded and look at how much opportunity this guy they spent a 1st round pick on has.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Well, Fantasy Value is driven by TD & touches .... PPR matters for WR volume.
Bateman - 1st round Draft Capital 6'2" WR with 4.39 speed (U Minn not most accomplished program, but in Year 3 Breakout is likely)
OBJ - 30 yo 5'11" athletic oft-injured player who never returned to elite, $$ contract says they see him as WR2
Flowers - 5'10" 172 lb with 4.42 speed with 1st round draft capital in a weak WR class
PAST Balt OC was <400 throws New OC will open it up more but I cannot see more than 450 passing attempts from Lamar.
And add Mark Andrews being Target #1, there are not too many looks to go around.
Expect 50-70 targets to RBs and there are little left over for Flowers to get more than 40 targets in 2023.
I expect 2024, Flowers to take WR2 role displacing OBJ and hit 90 targets. But I see that as his ceiling in the Balt offense.
Added to the fact Bateman was same draft class as Chase, DeVonta, Waddle adds to his "expectations of WR1".
That is not a Round 1 target in 1QB Dynasty draft in my perspective.... Ceiling of WR2-3 range.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
So looking at Clay's projections just for a fun and thought I'd pick Mike Clay's brain about what he thinks the new OC is going to do.
483 total targets
107 Andrews
83 OBJ
73 Bateman
72 Zay
34 Dobbins
33 Likely
19 Hill
19 Agholor
Edwards, Ricard, Duvernay, Kolar, Proche yadda yadda
I'm not saying you're wrong but it looks like there's some optimism (an informed guess) for a number a bit north of your guesstimated ceiling that's being published as a projection. So if you're Mike Clay, what are you thinking with this? I know nothing bout this new OC but I'm guessing he does (not sarcasm). I'm no expert.
The RB targets are still pretty low which is not surprising for a guy that doesn't really need to dump it off.
This is probably too sunny an outlook but that pie would be one that could support a 100+ target WR1 with Bateman as the #2 wr, #3 passing game option. If Flowers is what people think he can be (a freak of nature that gets open at will, has great yac ability and is a tenacious hard worker), that might not even be much of a stretch.
Nobody knows if OBJ is toast or not but if he is pretty crispy (and that's not a huge stretch) there's a ceiling that isn't even being considered here in year 1. Personally I think that contract was part of getting Lamar back on the team.
Bateman's dynasty eval. is before my time as a dynasty player so I don't know why he was thought of so highly. But between the health etc. it's getting tougher as the years go by to think that he's living up to those expectations. Given that his team felt a need to draft Flowers, we could logically conclude that they saw him for 2 years and decided that he's not it. And the new OC had something in mind by drafting Flowers.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
would have taken him #2 overall if he went to the vikes or chargers etc. i like him that much.
but my goodness, lamar just leaves a bas taste in my mouth (as did the OLD OC)
.... but marquise brown did alrite w lamar, and he's not close to what zay is, imo
Birdie048
Footballguy
Good info & I saw others with ~460 attempts as the ceiling for Lamar but again the new OC is more “air than ground” assault type.
Bateman was WR3-4 in that class. Chase 1 & DeVonta 2 but Waddle & Bateman were split #3-4
I would put more faith in other projections but Mike Clay is reliable and has reasons for his numbers
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Flowers is awesome. Went to a bad spot for fantasy though, bad for high end WR production for sure.
Yes.
I drafted him twice this weekend, at 11 and 17 in FFPC rules leagues with slightly larger roster sizes and both of them I badly needed some young WR's. He's been my #2WR for months now, until the draft. And all that being said while getting him at 2.5 felt good I've already had second thoughts using 1.11 on him.
The positive outlook I'm trying to have is OBJ's on a one year deal, neither OBJ or Bateman have been able to stay on the field long, Lamar should be passing a decent amount more often, and as was pointed out a few posts up even Marquise Brown got 140+ targets with Lamar one year. So there is a path.
Boston
Footballguy
I think a better path is Bateman stays healthy and is solid but nothing too special so it gives the Ravens no reason to add anything big time next offseason...if Bateman busts that could actually be worse for Flowers' long-term outlook.
steelcityman
Footballguy
I took Flowers in rookie draft, over Addison and Johnston. I think he has the easiest and best chance to be the WR1 on his team, with a new OC and Lamar. Addison is WR2 at best and Cousins wont be around much longer. Johnston could be WR1, but has holes in his game. Who really knows? I sure dont. But I have no "regerts" so far. Took Mayer in the 2nd rd.
Faust
MVP
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Zay Flowers’ ability to cut on a dime is something ELSE
Flowers and Odell Beckham in the same WR room is going to be LETHAL.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
@Birdie048
Continuing the conversation re: passing attempts (and I have a side question about how targets vs attempts are resolved when there are usually quite a few throw-aways).
Looking at game logs last 3 years for Lamar (not counting the two partial games)
2022- missing O Line pieces, Marquise and both top RBs for much of the season and Bateman/Andrews not consistently healthy.
attempts 322/11=29.27/g (bottom 5)
62% completion rate, 200 completions= 18.2 per game
2,231 yards /11 g = 202.8 per game
17 TDs = 1.54/gm
Overall PPR points per game supported in the passing game= 9.24 (TDs), 18.2 ppr, 20.3 yds= 47.74 points
2021, also 11 games, I believe had Marquise as a fantasy WR1 for most of the season and Andrews finished as the TE1.
Marquise ended the season with a 14.1 ppg avg and Andrews with 17.7
attempts 378/11=34.36/g (#9 in the NFL in terms of attempts per game)
64% completion rate, 244 completions= 22.2 per game
2,865 yards/11g= 260.45 per game
16 TDs = 1.15/g
PPR points per game 8.72+22.2+26.4 = 57.32 points
2020- 15 games
attempts 376/15=25/g
64% completion rate, 242 completions= 16.13
2,757 yards/15 = 183.8/g
26 TDs=1.73/g
PPR points per game 10.4+16.1+18.4= 44.9 points
In looking through the information, my hunches:
The TD efficiency from 2020 wasn't sustainable so that shouldn't be viewed as a baseline.
The attempts per game and lack of TD efficiency were down last year because the whole offense was off and missing a lot of pieces.
I don't know the shape of the OLine compared to 2021 in terms of supporting a better passing attack. Some of the issue was player health which isn't really something you can bake into a projection but if the depth is stinky then maybe a hedge makes sense.
New OC and and new weapons all of which would seem to be arrow up? Or at least back to similar to 2021 numbers?
So what's a reasonable projection? There's a teeny tiny chance they go full Tampa Brady 45/g out but I have a hard time believing that.
34-37 attempts per game. That's a middle of the pack to back of the top 10 NFL number of attempts per game.
21-24 completions per game avg
1.4-1.6 TD/game
240-280 y/g
That's a 53.4-61.6 points, very similar to 2021
Can Andrews get back to 300 points? Maybe. Probably more realistic to project him for 245-265/ 14.5-15.5/game
The RBs will get about 6 -8 of those ppr points per game, other TEs will get 3-4
That leaves about 30-33.5 for the WRs per game.
OBJ's 30 years old and is made of duct tape,rubber bands and bailer twine. Had 5 good weeks in 2021.
Career ppg
2014= 24.6
2015=21.3
2016= 18.5
2017= 18.5
2018=19.2
2019=12.6
2020=12.4
2021=9.2
2022= 0
2023= I'm seeing ~11 out there. Color me skeptical. He was startable for a stretch of 2021. There's a chance he at least starts off the year as a 14 point guy. But what's he really got left in the tank? Unless he found a time machine.
Bateman has gotten hurt but has also done bub with a ton of opportunity when he's been on the field. 2 seasons so far he's seeming more like a 7-10 point guy. Even that might be generous. How often do WRs with this kind of 2 seasons worth of data break out? Agholor and Duvernay will get some run for sure but they're not likely to be featured.
I'm not suggesting Flowers is going to be a 20 point per game guy but this WR room has a good chance to be splitting up a 30 point pie and he's the one with the greatest likelihood to get the biggest piece of that pie, at least by the end of the year. Or maybe Andrews goes off again and gets over 300. I traded for him (Andrews) so that would work pretty well for me
Sunshine and rainbows by greenmountaingoat.
Continuing the conversation re: passing attempts (and I have a side question about how targets vs attempts are resolved when there are usually quite a few throw-aways).
Looking at game logs last 3 years for Lamar (not counting the two partial games)
2022- missing O Line pieces, Marquise and both top RBs for much of the season and Bateman/Andrews not consistently healthy.
attempts 322/11=29.27/g (bottom 5)
62% completion rate, 200 completions= 18.2 per game
2,231 yards /11 g = 202.8 per game
17 TDs = 1.54/gm
Overall PPR points per game supported in the passing game= 9.24 (TDs), 18.2 ppr, 20.3 yds= 47.74 points
2021, also 11 games, I believe had Marquise as a fantasy WR1 for most of the season and Andrews finished as the TE1.
Marquise ended the season with a 14.1 ppg avg and Andrews with 17.7
attempts 378/11=34.36/g (#9 in the NFL in terms of attempts per game)
64% completion rate, 244 completions= 22.2 per game
2,865 yards/11g= 260.45 per game
16 TDs = 1.15/g
PPR points per game 8.72+22.2+26.4 = 57.32 points
2020- 15 games
attempts 376/15=25/g
64% completion rate, 242 completions= 16.13
2,757 yards/15 = 183.8/g
26 TDs=1.73/g
PPR points per game 10.4+16.1+18.4= 44.9 points
In looking through the information, my hunches:
The TD efficiency from 2020 wasn't sustainable so that shouldn't be viewed as a baseline.
The attempts per game and lack of TD efficiency were down last year because the whole offense was off and missing a lot of pieces.
I don't know the shape of the OLine compared to 2021 in terms of supporting a better passing attack. Some of the issue was player health which isn't really something you can bake into a projection but if the depth is stinky then maybe a hedge makes sense.
New OC and and new weapons all of which would seem to be arrow up? Or at least back to similar to 2021 numbers?
So what's a reasonable projection? There's a teeny tiny chance they go full Tampa Brady 45/g out but I have a hard time believing that.
34-37 attempts per game. That's a middle of the pack to back of the top 10 NFL number of attempts per game.
21-24 completions per game avg
1.4-1.6 TD/game
240-280 y/g
That's a 53.4-61.6 points, very similar to 2021
Can Andrews get back to 300 points? Maybe. Probably more realistic to project him for 245-265/ 14.5-15.5/game
The RBs will get about 6 -8 of those ppr points per game, other TEs will get 3-4
That leaves about 30-33.5 for the WRs per game.
OBJ's 30 years old and is made of duct tape,rubber bands and bailer twine. Had 5 good weeks in 2021.
Career ppg
2014= 24.6
2015=21.3
2016= 18.5
2017= 18.5
2018=19.2
2019=12.6
2020=12.4
2021=9.2
2022= 0
2023= I'm seeing ~11 out there. Color me skeptical. He was startable for a stretch of 2021. There's a chance he at least starts off the year as a 14 point guy. But what's he really got left in the tank? Unless he found a time machine.
Bateman has gotten hurt but has also done bub with a ton of opportunity when he's been on the field. 2 seasons so far he's seeming more like a 7-10 point guy. Even that might be generous. How often do WRs with this kind of 2 seasons worth of data break out? Agholor and Duvernay will get some run for sure but they're not likely to be featured.
I'm not suggesting Flowers is going to be a 20 point per game guy but this WR room has a good chance to be splitting up a 30 point pie and he's the one with the greatest likelihood to get the biggest piece of that pie, at least by the end of the year. Or maybe Andrews goes off again and gets over 300. I traded for him (Andrews) so that would work pretty well for me
Sunshine and rainbows by greenmountaingoat.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Excellent, well presented case for Flowers value higher than I am indicating.@Birdie048
Continuing the conversation re: passing attempts (and I have a side question about how targets vs attempts are resolved when there are usually quite a few throw-aways).
Looking at game logs last 3 years for Lamar (not counting the two partial games)
2022- missing O Line pieces, Marquise and both top RBs for much of the season and Bateman/Andrews not consistently healthy.
attempts 322/11=29.27/g (bottom 5)
62% completion rate, 200 completions= 18.2 per game
2,231 yards /11 g = 202.8 per game
17 TDs = 1.54/gm
Overall PPR points per game supported in the passing game= 9.24 (TDs), 18.2 ppr, 20.3 yds= 47.74 points
2021, also 11 games, I believe had Marquise as a fantasy WR1 for most of the season and Andrews finished as the TE1.
Marquise ended the season with a 14.1 ppg avg and Andrews with 17.7
attempts 378/11=34.36/g (#9 in the NFL in terms of attempts per game)
64% completion rate, 244 completions= 22.2 per game
2,865 yards/11g= 260.45 per game
16 TDs = 1.15/g
PPR points per game 8.72+22.2+26.4 = 57.32 points
2020- 15 games
attempts 376/15=25/g
64% completion rate, 242 completions= 16.13
2,757 yards/15 = 183.8/g
26 TDs=1.73/g
PPR points per game 10.4+16.1+18.4= 44.9 points
In looking through the information, my hunches:
The TD efficiency from 2020 wasn't sustainable so that shouldn't be viewed as a baseline.
The attempts per game and lack of TD efficiency were down last year because the whole offense was off and missing a lot of pieces.
I don't know the shape of the OLine compared to 2021 in terms of supporting a better passing attack. Some of the issue was player health which isn't really something you can bake into a projection but if the depth is stinky then maybe a hedge makes sense.
New OC and and new weapons all of which would seem to be arrow up? Or at least back to similar to 2021 numbers?
So what's a reasonable projection? There's a teeny tiny chance they go full Tampa Brady 45/g out but I have a hard time believing that.
34-37 attempts per game. That's a middle of the pack to back of the top 10 NFL number of attempts per game.
21-24 completions per game avg
1.4-1.6 TD/game
240-280 y/g
That's a 53.4-61.6 points, very similar to 2021
Can Andrews get back to 300 points? Maybe. Probably more realistic to project him for 245-265/ 14.5-15.5/game
The RBs will get about 6 -8 of those ppr points per game, other TEs will get 3-4
That leaves about 30-33.5 for the WRs per game.
OBJ's 30 years old and is made of duct tape,rubber bands and bailer twine. Had 5 good weeks in 2021.
Career ppg
2014= 24.6
2015=21.3
2016= 18.5
2017= 18.5
2018=19.2
2019=12.6
2020=12.4
2021=9.2
2022= 0
2023= I'm seeing ~11 out there. Color me skeptical. He was startable for a stretch of 2021. There's a chance he at least starts off the year as a 14 point guy. But what's he really got left in the tank? Unless he found a time machine.
Bateman has gotten hurt but has also done bub with a ton of opportunity when he's been on the field. 2 seasons so far he's seeming more like a 7-10 point guy. Even that might be generous. How often do WRs with this kind of 2 seasons worth of data break out? Agholor and Duvernay will get some run for sure but they're not likely to be featured.
I'm not suggesting Flowers is going to be a 20 point per game guy but this WR room has a good chance to be splitting up a 30 point pie and he's the one with the greatest likelihood to get the biggest piece of that pie, at least by the end of the year. Or maybe Andrews goes off again and gets over 300. I traded for him (Andrews) so that would work pretty well for me
Sunshine and rainbows by greenmountaingoat.
I did more research into Todd Monken OC (previous Univ Georgia OC/QB Coach = 2 National Titles) and he thrives on a balanced attack utilizing his skill players. His #1 strength is his ability to adapt to the strength of those available to him. With that said, he is expected to "balance Lamar's running" with a controlled passing game.
Historically, Lamar never exceeded 400 passes in a season (some were shortened I admit). So, realistically, we can estimate his Top was closer to 450-465 range. Still low volume for a high scoring offense, but with a likely 550 passing attempts, I can see Flowers displacing OBJ about week 8-10.
FWIW, I had Flowers WR3 pre-draft. Landing spot soured me more than I like to admit.
THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION!!
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
The rate stats for 2021 would have been 4,160 yards and 18.4 TDs on 550 attempts in 16. Not that I'm assuming you can't do math lol.Excellent, well presented case for Flowers value higher than I am indicating.
I did more research into Todd Monken OC (previous Univ Georgia OC/QB Coach = 2 National Titles) and he thrives on a balanced attack utilizing his skill players. His #1 strength is his ability to adapt to the strength of those available to him. With that said, he is expected to "balance Lamar's running" with a controlled passing game.
Historically, Lamar never exceeded 400 passes in a season (some were shortened I admit). So, realistically, we can estimate his Top was closer to 450-465 range. Still low volume for a high scoring offense, but with a likely 550 passing attempts, I can see Flowers displacing OBJ about week 8-10.
FWIW, I had Flowers WR3 pre-draft. Landing spot soured me more than I like to admit.
THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION
Maybe if he runs less he can actually play a whole season. I'd be pretty surprised to see the TD rate that low. I think 22-28 is a more likely range for him but would not be stunned to see him throw for 30+.
It's also hard to know for sure with new OC whether or not their ideas are going to work. It's a lotta moving/ new parts. New terminology, new plays, new communication. So the floor could always be worse
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
A year with OBJ veteran leadership will do wonders for Flowers’ career. I think he’s going to be good and we will all be talking about how the problem with the Ravens was Greg Roman.
